Analysing environmental opinion using highly customisable visualisation tools to understand citizens' attitudes and barriers.

Knowledge of public opinion is key to understanding citizens' attitudes towards environmental policies. However, large polls and surveys generate complex datasets from which it is not always easy to draw conclusions. In addition, tailor-made solutions for analysing public opinion face the challenge of handling too many layers of information, which can easily lead to an overwhelming user experience and impair decision-making. Service design methodologies can support the design of ad hoc visualisation tools focused on user needs. We present Op-e-nion, a case study of a visualisation tool for the analysis of public opinion regarding environmental issues, aimed at administrations and public institutions. The involvement of experts from different fields allowed for the identification of the main metrics necessary to target the least engaged socio-demographic groups as well as the barriers that limited their environmental actions. Experts also highlighted useful aspects of the design process and the final prototype to help them define more effective campaigns and policies to address social challenges and promote citizen action. An innovative step was introduced in the methodology by involving non-state actors in the evaluation of the tool, ensuring problem detection and enhancing the sustainability of the final product. Important aspects for the visualisation of multi-categorical data included simplifying the interaction with the tool while prioritising relevant information, and using highly customizable visualisations to answer specific user requirements and changing needs (i.e. analytical vs. managerial tasks). Improved visualisations of public opinion data will, in turn, better support the development of policies shaped by citizens' concerns.

Development, validation, and prognostic evaluation of a risk score for long-term liver-related outcomes in the general population: a multicohort study.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major cause of death worldwide. Cirrhosis develops after a long asymptomatic period of fibrosis progression, with the diagnosis frequently occurring late, when major complications or cancer develop. Few reliable tools exist for timely identification of individuals at risk of cirrhosis to allow for early intervention. We aimed to develop a novel score to identify individuals at risk for future liver-related outcomes. METHODS: We derived the LiverRisk score from an international prospective cohort of individuals from six countries without known liver disease from the general population, who underwent liver fibrosis assessment by transient elastography. The score included age, sex, and six standard laboratory variables. We created four groups: minimal risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk according to selected cutoff values of the LiverRisk score (6, 10, and 15). The model's discriminatory accuracy and calibration were externally validated in two prospective cohorts from the general population. Moreover, we ascertained the prognostic value of the score in the prediction of liver-related outcomes in participants without known liver disease with median follow-up of 12 years (UK Biobank cohort). FINDINGS: We included 14 726 participants: 6357 (43·2%) in the derivation cohort, 4370 (29·7%) in the first external validation cohort, and 3999 (27·2%) in the second external validation cohort. The score accurately predicted liver stiffness in the development and external validation cohorts, and was superior to conventional serum biomarkers of fibrosis, as measured by area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC; 0·83 [95% CI [0·78-0·89]) versus the fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4; 0·68 [0·61-0·75] at 10 kPa). The score was effective in identifying individuals at risk of liver-related mortality, liver-related hospitalisation, and liver cancer, thereby allowing stratification to different risk groups for liver-related outcomes. The hazard ratio for liver-related mortality in the high-risk group was 471 (95% CI 347-641) compared with the minimal risk group, and the overall AUC of the score in predicting 10-year liver-related mortality was 0·90 (0·88-0·91) versus 0.84 (0·82-0·86) for FIB-4. INTERPRETATION: The LiverRisk score, based on simple parameters, predicted liver fibrosis and future development of liver-related outcomes in the general population. The score might allow for stratification of individuals according to liver risk and thus guide preventive care. FUNDING: European Commission under the H20/20 programme; Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria de Salud; Instituto de Salud Carlos III; Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness; the European Regional Development Fund; and the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Measuring the Effectiveness of Static Maps to Communicate Changes Over Time.

Both in digital and print media, it is common to use static maps to show the evolution of values in various regions over time. The ability to communicate local or global trends, while reducing the cognitive load on readers, is of vital importance for an audience that is not always well versed in map interpretation. This study aims to measure the efficiency of four static maps (choropleth, tile grid map and their banded versions) to test their usefulness in presenting changes over time from a user experience perspective. We first evaluate the effectiveness of these map types by quantitative performance analysis (time and success rates). In a second phase, we gather qualitative data to detect which type of map favors decision-making. On a quantitative level, our results show that certain types of maps work better to show global trends, while other types are more useful when analyzing regional trends or detecting the regions that fit a specific pattern. On a qualitative level, those representations which are already familiar to the user are often better valued despite having lower measured success rates.

LiverScreen project: study protocol for screening for liver fibrosis in the general population in European countries.

BACKGROUND: The development of liver cirrhosis is usually an asymptomatic process until late stages when complications occur. The potential reversibility of the disease is dependent on early diagnosis of liver fibrosis and timely targeted treatment. Recently, the use of non-invasive tools has been suggested for screening of liver fibrosis, especially in subjects with risk factors for chronic liver disease. Nevertheless, large population-based studies with cost-effectiveness analyses are still lacking to support the widespread use of such tools. The aim of this study is to investigate whether non-invasive liver stiffness measurement in the general population is useful to identify subjects with asymptomatic, advanced chronic liver disease. METHODS: This study aims to include 30,000 subjects from eight European countries. Subjects from the general population aged ≥ 40 years without known liver disease will be invited to participate in the study either through phone calls/letters or through their primary care center. In the first study visit, subjects will undergo bloodwork as well as hepatic fat quantification and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography. If LSM is ≥ 8 kPa and/or if ALT levels are ≥1.5 x upper limit of normal, subjects will be referred to hospital for further evaluation and consideration of liver biopsy. The primary outcome is the percentage of subjects with LSM ≥ 8kPa. In addition, a health economic evaluation will be performed to assess the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of such an intervention. The project is funded by the European Commission H2020 program. DISCUSSION: This study comes at an especially important time, as the burden of chronic liver diseases is expected to increase in the coming years. There is consequently an urgent need to change our current approach, from diagnosing the disease late when the impact of interventions may be limited to diagnosing the disease earlier, when the patient is asymptomatic and free of complications, and the disease potentially reversible. Ultimately, the LiverScreen study will serve as a basis from which diagnostic pathways can be developed and adapted to the specific socio-economic and healthcare conditions in each country. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered on Clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT03789825 ).

A city of cities: Measuring how 15-minutes urban accessibility shapes human mobility in Barcelona.

As cities expand, human mobility has become a central focus of urban planning and policy making to make cities more inclusive and sustainable. Initiatives such as the "15-minutes city" have been put in place to shift the attention from monocentric city configurations to polycentric structures, increasing the availability and diversity of local urban amenities. Ultimately they expect to increase local walkability and increase mobility within residential areas. While we know how urban amenities influence human mobility at the city level, little is known about spatial variations in this relationship. Here, we use mobile phone, census, and volunteered geographical data to measure geographic variations in the relationship between origin-destination flows and local urban accessibility in Barcelona. Using a Negative Binomial Geographically Weighted Regression model, we show that, globally, people tend to visit neighborhoods with better access to education and retail. Locally, these and other features change in sign and magnitude through the different neighborhoods of the city in ways that are not explained by administrative boundaries, and that provide deeper insights regarding urban characteristics such as rental prices. In conclusion, our work suggests that the qualities of a 15-minutes city can be measured at scale, delivering actionable insights on the polycentric structure of cities, and how people use and access this structure.

Can one trust quantum simulators?

Various fundamental phenomena of strongly correlated quantum systems such as high-T(c) superconductivity, the fractional quantum-Hall effect and quark confinement are still awaiting a universally accepted explanation. The main obstacle is the computational complexity of solving even the most simplified theoretical models which are designed to capture the relevant quantum correlations of the many-body system of interest. In his seminal 1982 paper (Feynman 1982 Int. J. Theor. Phys. 21 467), Richard Feynman suggested that such models might be solved by 'simulation' with a new type of computer whose constituent parts are effectively governed by a desired quantum many-body dynamics. Measurements on this engineered machine, now known as a 'quantum simulator,' would reveal some unknown or difficult to compute properties of a model of interest. We argue that a useful quantum simulator must satisfy four conditions: relevance, controllability, reliability and efficiency. We review the current state of the art of digital and analog quantum simulators. Whereas so far the majority of the focus, both theoretically and experimentally, has been on controllability of relevant models, we emphasize here the need for a careful analysis of reliability and efficiency in the presence of imperfections. We discuss how disorder and noise can impact these conditions, and illustrate our concerns with novel numerical simulations of a paradigmatic example: a disordered quantum spin chain governed by the Ising model in a transverse magnetic field. We find that disorder can decrease the reliability of an analog quantum simulator of this model, although large errors in local observables are introduced only for strong levels of disorder. We conclude that the answer to the question 'Can we trust quantum simulators?' is … to some extent.

Sensitivity to perturbations in a quantum chaotic billiard.

The Loschmidt echo (LE) measures the ability of a system to return to the initial state after a forward quantum evolution followed by a backward perturbed one. It has been conjectured that the echo of a classically chaotic system decays exponentially, with a decay rate given by the minimum between the width Gamma of the local density of states and the Lyapunov exponent. As the perturbation strength is increased one obtains a crossover between both regimes. These predictions are based on situations where the Fermi golden rule (FGR) is valid. By considering a paradigmatic fully chaotic system, the Bunimovich stadium billiard, with a perturbation in a regime for which the FGR manifestly does not work, we find a crossover from Gamma to Lyapunov decay. We find that, challenging the analytic interpretation, these conjectures are valid even beyond the expected range.