Root cause analysis of mortality after esophagectomy for cancer: a multicenter cohort study from the FREGAT database.

BACKGROUND: Esophagectomy is associated with significant mortality. A better understanding of the causes leading to death may help to reduce mortality. A root cause analysis of mortality after esophagectomy was performed. METHODS: Root cause analysis was retrospectively applied by an independent expert panel of 4 upper gastrointestinal surgeons and 1 anesthesiologist-intensivist to patients included in the French national multicenter prospective cohort FREGAT between August 2014 and September 2019 who underwent an esophagectomy for cancer and died within 90 days of surgery. A cause-and-effect diagram was used to determine the root causes related to death. Death was classified as potentially preventable or non-preventable. RESULTS: Among the 1,040 patients included in the FREGAT cohort, 70 (6.7%) patients (male: 81%, median age 68 [62-72] years) from 17 centers were included. Death was potentially preventable in 37 patients (53%). Root causes independently associated with preventable death were inappropriate indication (odds ratio 35.16 [2.50-494.39]; P = .008), patient characteristics (odds ratio 5.15 [1.19-22.35]; P = .029), unexpected intraoperative findings (odds ratio 18.99 [1.07-335.55]; P = .045), and delay in diagnosis of a complication (odds ratio 98.10 [6.24-1,541.04]; P = .001). Delay in treatment of a complication was found only in preventable deaths (28 [76%] vs 0; P < .001). National guidelines were less frequently followed (16 [43%] vs 22 [67%]; P = .050) in preventable deaths. The only independent risk factor of preventable death was center volume <26 esophagectomies per year (odds ratio 4.71 [1.55-14.33]; P = .006). CONCLUSIONS: More than one-half of deaths after esophagectomy were potentially preventable. Better patient selection, early diagnosis, and adequate management of complications through centralization could reduce mortality.

Effectiveness of Surgeon-Performed Paravertebral Block Analgesia for Minimally Invasive Thoracic Surgery: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: In minimally invasive thoracic surgery, paravertebral block (PVB) using ultrasound (US)-guided technique is an efficient postoperative analgesia. However, it is an operator-dependent process depending on experience and local resources. Because pain-control failure is highly detrimental, surgeons may consider other locoregional analgesic options. Objective: To demonstrate the noninferiority of PVB performed by surgeons under video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS), hereafter referred to as PVB-VATS, as the experimental group compared with PVB performed by anesthesiologists using US-guided technique (PVB-US) as the control group. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this single-center, noninferiority, patient-blinded, randomized clinical trial conducted from September 8, 2020, to December 8, 2021, patients older than 18 years who were undergoing a scheduled minimally invasive thoracic surgery with lung resection including video-assisted or robotic approaches were included. Exclusion criteria included scheduled open surgery, any antalgic World Health Organization level greater than 2 before surgery, or a medical history of homolateral thoracic surgery. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to an intervention group after general anesthesia. They received single-injection PVB before the first incision was made in the control group (PVB-US) or after 1 incision was made under thoracoscopic vision in the experimental group (PVB-VATS). Interventions: PVB-VATS or PVB-US. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was mean 48-hour post-PVB opioid consumption considering a noninferiority range of less than 7.5 mg of opioid consumption between groups. Secondary outcomes included time of anesthesia, surgery, and operating room occupancy; 48-hour pain visual analog scale score at rest and while coughing; and 30-day postoperative complications. Results: A total of 196 patients were randomly assigned to intervention groups: 98 in the PVB-VATS group (mean [SD] age, 64.6 [9.5] years; 53 female [54.1%]) and 98 in the PVB-US group (mean [SD] age, 65.8 [11.5] years; 62 male [63.3%]). The mean (SD) of 48-hour opioid consumption in the PVB-VATS group (33.9 [19.8] mg; 95% CI, 30.0-37.9 mg) was noninferior to that measured in the PVB-US group (28.5 [18.2] mg; 95% CI, 24.8-32.2 mg; difference: -5.4 mg; 95% CI, -∞ to -0.93; noninferiority Welsh test, P ≤ .001). Pain score at rest and while coughing after surgery, overall time, and postoperative complications did not differ between groups. Conclusions and Relevance: PVB placed by a surgeon during thoracoscopy was noninferior to PVB placed by an anesthesiologist using ultrasonography before incision in terms of opioid consumption during the first 48 hours. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04579276.

Is the Epithor conversion score reliable in robotic-assisted surgery anatomical lung resection?

OBJECTIVES: Despite an improvement in surgical abilities, the need for an intraoperative switch from a minimally invasive procedure towards an open surgery (conversion) still remains. To anticipate this risk, the Epithor conversion score (ECS) has been described for video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS). Our objective was to determine if this score, developed for VATS, is applicable in robotic-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (RATS). METHODS: This was a retrospective monocentric study from January 2006 to June 2022, and data were obtained from the EPITHOR database. Patients included were those who underwent anatomic lung resection either by VATS or RATS. The ECS was calculated for all patients studied. Discrimination and calibration of the test were measured by the area under the curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: A total of 1685 were included. There were 183/1299 conversions in the VATS group (14.1%) and 27/386 conversions in the RATS group (6.9%). Patients in the RATS group had fewer antiplatelet therapy and peripheral arterial disease. There were more segmentectomies in the VATS group. As for test discrimination, the area under the curve was 0.66 [0.56-0.78] in the RATS group and 0.64 [0.60-0.69] in the VATS group. Regarding the calibration, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was not significant for both groups but more positive (better calibrated) for the VATS group (P = 0.12) compared to the RATS group (P = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: The ECS seems applicable for patients operated with RATS, with a correct discrimination but a lower calibration performance for patients operated with VATS. A new score could be developed to specifically anticipate conversion in patients operated on by RATS.

Peripheral location of lung cancer is associated with higher local disease recurrence.

OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to evaluate the association between the distance of the tumour to the visceral pleura and the rate of local recurrence in patients surgically treated for stage pI lung cancer. METHODS: We conducted a single-centre retrospective review of 578 consecutive patients with clinical stage IA lung cancer who underwent a lobectomy or segmentectomy from January 2010 to December 2019. We excluded 107 patients with positive margins, previous lung cancer, neoadjuvant treatment and pathological stage II or higher status or for whom preoperative computed tomography (CT) scans were not available at the time of the study. The distance between the tumour and the closest visceral pleura area (fissure/mediastinum/lateral) was assessed by 2 independent investigators who used preoperative CT scans and multiplanar 3-dimensional reconstructions. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine the best threshold for the tumour/pleura distance. Then multivariable survival analyses were used to assess the relationship between local recurrence and this threshold in relation to other variables. RESULTS: Local recurrence occurred in 27/471 patients (5.8%). A cut-off value of 5 mm between the tumour and the pleura was determined statistically. In the multivariable analysis, the local recurrence rate was significantly higher in patients with a tumour-to-pleura distance ≤5 mm compared to patients with a tumour-to-pleura distance >5 mm (8.5% vs 2.7%, hazard ratio 3.36, 95% confidence interval: 1.31-8.59, P = 0.012). Subgroup analyses of patients with pIA and tumour size ≤2 cm identified local recurrences in 4/78 patients treated with segmentectomy (5.1%), with a significantly higher occurrence with tumour-to-pleura distances ≤5 mm (11.4% vs 0%, P = 0.037), and in 16/292 patients treated with lobectomy (5.5%) without significant higher occurrence in tumour-to-pleura distances of ≤5 mm (7.7% vs 3.4%, P = 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: The peripheral location of a lung tumour is associated with a higher rate of local recurrence and should be taken into account during preoperative planning when considering segmental versus lobar resection.

Perioperative Cetuximab with Cisplatin and 5-Fluorouracil in Esogastric Adenocarcinoma: A Phase II Study.

PURPOSE: While perioperative chemotherapy provides a survival benefit over surgery alone in gastric and gastroesophageal junction (G/GEJ) adenocarcinomas, the results need to be improved. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of perioperative cetuximab combined with 5-fluorouracil and cisplatin. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients received six cycles of cetuximab, cisplatin, and simplified LV5FU2 before and after surgery. The primary objective was a combined evaluation of the tumor objective response (TOR), assessed by computed tomography, and the absence of major toxicities resulting in discontinuation of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) (45% and 90%, respectively). RESULTS: From 2011 to 2013, 65 patients were enrolled. From 64 patients evaluable for the primary endpoint, 19 (29.7%) had a morphological TOR and 61 (95.3%) did not stop NCT prematurely due to major toxicity. Sixty patients (92.3%) underwent resection. Sixteen patients (/56 available, 28.5%) had histological responses (Mandard tumor regression grade ≤3). After a median follow-up of 44.5 months, median disease-free and overall survival were 24.4 [95% CI: 16.4-39.4] and 40.3 months [95% CI: 27.5-NA], respectively. CONCLUSION: Adding cetuximab to the NCT regimen in operable G/GEJ adenocarcinomas is safe, but did not show enough efficacy in the present study to meet the primary endpoint (NCT01360086).

Prediction of survival after a lung transplant at 1 year (SALTO cohort) using information available at different key time points.

OBJECTIVES: A lung transplant is the final treatment option for end-stage lung disease. We evaluated the individual risk of 1-year mortality at each stage of the lung transplant process. METHODS: This study was a retrospective analysis of patients undergoing bilateral lung transplants between January 2014 and December 2019 in 3 French academic centres. Patients were randomly divided into development and validation cohorts. Three multivariable logistic regression models of 1-year mortality were applied (i) at recipient registration, (ii) the graft allocation and (iii) after the operation. The 1-year mortality was predicted for individual patients assigned to 3 risk groups at time points A to C. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 478 patients with a mean (standard deviation) age of 49.0 (14.3) years. The 1-year mortality rate was 23.0%. There were no significant differences in patient characteristics between the development (n = 319) and validation (n = 159) cohorts. The models analysed recipient, donor and intraoperative variables. The discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.67 (0.62-0.73), 0.70 (0.63-0.77) and 0.82 (0.77-0.88), respectively, in the development cohort and 0.74 (0.64-0.85), 0.76 (0.66-0.86) and 0.87 (0.79 - 0.95), respectively, in the validation cohort. Survival rates were significantly different among the low- (< 15%), intermediate- (15%-45%) and high-risk (> 45%) groups in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Risk prediction models allow estimation of the 1-year mortality risk of individual patients during the lung transplant process. These models may help caregivers identify high-risk patients at times A to C and reduce the risk at subsequent time points.

Mobilisation of HLA-F on the surface of bronchial epithelial cells and platelets in asthmatic patients.

Uncontrolled inflammation of the airways in chronic obstructive lung diseases leads to exacerbation, accelerated lung dysfunction and respiratory insufficiency. Among these diseases, asthma affects 358 million people worldwide. Human bronchial epithelium cells (HBEC) express both anti-inflammatory and activating molecules, and their deregulated expression contribute to immune cell recruitment and activation, especially platelets (PLT) particularly involved in lung tissue inflammation in asthma context. Previous results supported that HLA-G dysregulation in lung tissue is associated with immune cell activation. We investigated here HLA-F expression, reported to be mobilised on immune cell surface upon activation and displaying its highest affinity for the KIR3DS1-activating NK receptor. We explored HLA-F transcriptional expression in HBEC; HLA-F total expression in PBMC and HBEC collected from healthy individuals at rest and upon chemical activation and HLA-F membrane expression in PBMC, HBEC and PLT collected from healthy individuals at rest and upon chemical activation. We compared HLA-F transcriptional expression in HBEC from healthy individuals and asthmatic patients and its surface expression in HBEC and PLT from healthy individuals and asthmatic patients. Our results support that HLA-F is expressed by HBEC and PLT under healthy physiological conditions and is retained in cytoplasm, barely expressed on the surface, as previously reported in immune cells. In both cell types, HLA-F reaches the surface in the inflammatory asthma context whereas no effect is observed at the transcriptional level. Our study suggests that HLA-F surface expression is a ubiquitous post-transcriptional process in activated cells. It may be of therapeutic interest in controlling lung inflammation.

Identifying a core symptom set triggering radiological and endoscopic investigations for suspected recurrent esophago-gastric cancer: a modified Delphi consensus process.

BACKGROUND: There is currently a lack of evidence-based guidelines regarding surveillance for recurrence after esophageal and gastric (OG) cancer surgical resection, and which symptoms should prompt endoscopic or radiological investigations for recurrence. The aim of this study was to develop a core symptom set using a modified Delphi consensus process that should guide clinicians to carry out investigations to look for suspected recurrent OG cancer in previously asymptomatic patients. METHODS: A web-based survey of 42 questions was sent to surgeons performing OG cancer resections at high volume centers. The first section evaluated the structure of follow-up and the second, determinants of follow-up. Two rounds of a modified Delphi consensus process and a further consensus workshop were used to determine symptoms warranting further investigations. Symptoms with a 75% consensus agreement as suggestive of recurrent cancer were included in the core symptom set. RESULTS: 27 surgeons completed the questionnaires. A total of 70.3% of centers reported standardized surveillance protocols, whereas 3.7% of surgeons did not undertake any surveillance in asymptomatic patients after OG cancer resection. In asymptomatic patients, 40.1% and 25.9% of centers performed routine imaging and endoscopy, respectively. The core set that reached consensus, consisted of eight symptoms that warranted further investigations included; dysphagia to solid food, dysphagia to liquids, vomiting, abdominal pain, chest pain, regurgitation of foods, unexpected weight loss and progressive hoarseness of voice. CONCLUSION: There is global variation in monitoring patients after OG cancer resection. Eight symptoms were identified by the consensus process as important in prompting radiological or endoscopic investigation for suspected recurrent malignancy. Further randomized controlled trials are necessary to link surveillance strategies to survival outcomes and evaluate prognostic value.

The effect of enhanced recovery after minimally invasive esophagectomy: a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this randomized controlled trial was to determine if enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) would improve outcomes for three-stage minimally invasive esophagectomy (MIE). METHODS: Patients with esophageal cancer undergoing MIE between March 2016 and August 2018 were consecutively enrolled, and were randomly divided into 2 groups: ERAS+group that received a guideline-based ERAS protocol, and ERAS- group that received standard care. The primary endpoint was morbidity after MIE. The secondary endpoints were the length of stay (LOS) and time to ambulation after the surgery. The perioperative results including the Surgical Apgar Score (SAS) and Visualized Analgesia Score (VAS) were also collected and compared. RESULTS: A total of 60 patients in the ERAS+ group and 58 patients in the ERAS- group were included. Postoperatively, lower morbidity and pulmonary complication rate were recorded in the ERAS+ group (33.3% vs. 51.7%; p = 0.04, 16.7% vs. 32.8%; p = 0.04), while the incidence of anastomotic leakage remained comparable (11.7% vs. 15.5%; p = 0.54). There was an earlier ambulation (3 [2-3] days vs. 3 [3-4] days, p = 0.001), but comparable LOS (10 [9-11.25] days vs. 10 [9-13] days; p = 0.165) recorded in ERAS+ group. The ERAS protocol led to close scores in both SAS (7.80 ± 1.03 vs. 8.07 ± 0.89, p = 0.21) and VAS (1.74 ± 0.85 vs. 1.78 ± 1.06, p = 0.84). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of an ERAS protocol for patients undergoing MIE resulted in earlier ambulation and lower pulmonary complications, without a change in anastomotic leakage or length of hospital stay. Further studies on minimizing leakage should be addressed in ERAS for MIE.

Ultra-early initiation of postoperative rehabilitation in the post-anaesthesia care unit after major thoracic surgery: case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Physiotherapy is a major cornerstone of enhanced rehabilitation after surgery (ERAS) and reduces the development of atelectasis after thoracic surgery. By initiating physiotherapy in the post-anaesthesia care unit (PACU), the aim was to evaluate whether the ultra-early initiation of rehabilitation (in the first hour following tracheal extubation) would improve the outcomes of patients undergoing elective thoracic surgery. METHODS: A case-control study with a before-and-after design was conducted. From a historical control group, patients were paired at a 3:1 ratio with an intervention group. This group consisted of patients treated with the ultra-early rehabilitation programme after elective thoracic surgery (clear fluids, physiotherapy, and ambulation). The primary outcome was the incidence of postoperative atelectasis and/or pneumonia during the hospital stay. RESULTS: After pairing, 675 patients were allocated to the historical control group and 225 patients to the intervention group. A significant decrease in the incidence of postoperative atelectasis and/or pneumonia was found in the latter (11.4 versus 6.7 per cent respectively; P = 0.042) and remained significant on multivariate analysis (OR 0.53, 95 per cent c.i. 0.26 to 0.98; P = 0.045). A subgroup analysis of the intervention group showed that early ambulation during the PACU stay was associated with a further significant decrease in the incidence of postoperative atelectasis and/or pneumonia (2.2 versus 9.5 per cent; P = 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: Ultra-early rehabilitation in the PACU was associated with a decrease in the incidence of postoperative atelectasis and/or pneumonia after major elective thoracic surgery.

Reporting of patient safety incidents in minimally invasive thoracic surgery: a national registered thoracic surgeons experience for improvement of patient safety.

OBJECTIVES: The reporting of patient safety incidents (PSIs) occurring in minimally invasive thoracic surgery (MITS) is crucial. However, previous reports focused mainly on catastrophic events whereas minor events are often underreported. METHODS: All voluntary reports of MITS-related PSIs were retrospectively extracted from the French REX database for 'in-depth analysis'. From 2008 to 2019, we retrospectively analysed and graded events according to the WHO classification of PSIs: near miss events, no harm incidents and harmful incidents. Causes and corrective measures were analysed according to the human-technology-organization triad. RESULTS: Of the 5145 cardiothoracic surgery PSIs declared, 407 were related to MITS. Among them, MITS was performed for primary lung cancer in 317 (78%) and consisted in a lobectomy in 249 (61%) patients. PSIs were: near miss events in 42 (10%) patients, no harm incidents in 81 (20%) patients and harmful incidents in 284 (70%) patients (mild: n = 163, 40%; moderate: n = 78, 19%; severe: n = 36, 9%; and deaths: n = 7, 2%). Human factors represented the most important cause of PSIs with 267/407 (65.6%) cases, including mainly vascular injuries (n = 90; 22%) and non-vascular injuries (n = 43; 11%). Pulmonary arteries were the most affected site with 57/91 cases (62%). In all, there were 7 deaths (2%), 53 patients required second surgery (13%) and 30 required additional lung resection (7%). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of reported MITS -related PSIs were non-catastrophic. Human factors were the main cause of PSIs. Systematic reporting and analysis of these PSIs will allow surgeon and his team to avoid a large proportion of them.

A Delphi Consensus report from the "Prolonged Air Leak: A Survey" study group on prevention and management of postoperative air leaks after minimally invasive anatomical resections.

OBJECTIVES: This study reports the results of an international expert consensus process evaluating the assessment of intraoperative air leaks (IAL) and treatment of postoperative prolonged air leaks (PAL) utilizing a Delphi process, with the aim of helping standardization and improving practice. METHODS: A panel of 45 questions was developed and submitted to an international working group of experts in minimally invasive lung cancer surgery. Modified Delphi methodology was used to review responses, including 3 rounds of voting. The consensus was defined a priori as >50% agreement among the experts. Clinical practice standards were graded as recommended or highly recommended if 50-74% or >75% of the experts reached an agreement, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 32 experts from 18 countries completed the questionnaires in all 3 rounds. Respondents agreed that PAL are defined as >5 days and that current risk models are rarely used. The consensus was reached in 33/45 issues (73.3%). IAL were classified as mild (<100 ml/min; 81%), moderate (100-400 ml/min; 71%) and severe (>400 ml/min; 74%). If mild IAL are detected, 68% do not treat; if moderate, consensus was not; if severe, 90% favoured treatment. CONCLUSIONS: This expert consensus working group reached an agreement on the majority of issues regarding the detection and management of IAL and PAL. In the absence of prospective, randomized evidence supporting most of these clinical decisions, this document may serve as a guideline to reduce practice variation.

Does baseline quality of life predict the occurrence of complications in resectable esophageal cancer?

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to assess the impact of baseline health related quality of life (HRQOL) on the occurrence of postoperative complications and death in patients with resectable esophageal cancer. METHODS: Existing data from a prospective, multicenter, open label, randomized, controlled phase III trial comparing hybrid versus open esophagectomy in patients with resectable esophageal cancer from 2009 to 2012 in France were used. A Cox regression model was used to assess the prognostic value of the baseline HRQOL score on the occurrence of major complications (MC), and major pulmonary complications (MPC) at 30 days post-surgery, as well as on 1-year postoperative overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Every 10-point increase in the baseline role functioning score was associated with a 14% reduction in the risk of MC, while every 10-point increase in fatigue or pain score was associated with an 18% increase in the risk of MC. Similarly, higher scores on fatigue and pain were associated with a higher risk of MPC. Compared with the hybrid procedure, patients undergoing open esophagectomy had a significantly higher risk of MC and MPC. Patients diagnosed with esophageal adenocarcinoma were at significantly lower risk of MC or MPC compared to patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Higher pain (HR = 1.23, p = 0.035) and insomnia (HR = 1.16, P = 0.031) scores were associated with increased 1-year OS. CONCLUSION: Fatigue, pain, insomnia, and squamous cell pathology were indicators of poor prognosis, and that the presence of these findings might possibly change the management plan towards other forms of treatment and warrant close attention.

Benignant and malignant epidemiology among surgical resections for suspicious solitary lung cancer without preoperative tissue diagnosis.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiology of patients undergoing diagnostic and/or curative surgical pulmonary resections for lung opacities suspected of being localized primary lung cancers without preoperative tissue confirmation. METHODS: We performed a single-centre retrospective study of a prospectively implemented institutional database of all patients who underwent pulmonary resection between January 2010 and December 2020. Patients were selected when surgery complied with the Fleischner society guidelines. We performed a multivariable logistic regression to determine the preoperative variables associated with malignancy. RESULTS: Among 1392 patients, 213 (15.3%) had a final diagnosis of benignancy. We quantified futile parenchymal resections in 29 (2.1%) patients defined by an anatomical resection of >2 lung segments for benign lesions that did not modified the clinical management. Compared with patients with malignancies, patients with benignancies were younger (57.5 vs 63.9 years, P < 0.001), had lower preoperative risk profile (thoracoscore 0.4 vs 2.1, P < 0.001), had a higher proportion of wedge resection (50.7% vs 12.2%, P < 0.01) and experienced a lower burden of postoperative complication (Clavien-Dindo IV or V, 0.4% vs 5.6%, P < 0.001). Preoperative independent variables associated with malignancy were (adjusted odd ratio [95% confident interval]) age 1.02 [1.00; 1.04], smoking (year-pack) 1.005 (1.00; 1.01), history of cardiovascular disease 2.06 [1.30; 3.30], history of controlled cancer 2.74 [1.30; 6.88] and clinical N involvement 4.20 [1.11; 37.44]. CONCLUSIONS: Futile parenchymal lung resection for suspicious opacities without preoperative tissue diagnosis is rare (2.1%) while surgery for benign lesions represented 15.3% and has a satisfactory safety profile with very low postoperative morbi-mortality.

Pathological complete response after neoadjuvant treatment determines survival in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients (NEOCRTEC5010).

BACKGROUND: Few studies have exclusively investigated the value of pathological complete response (pCR), in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients, although it is a clinically significant parameter to evaluate the impact of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) on treatment outcome after surgery. The aim of our study was to explore the relationship between pCR after nCRT and survival among patients with local ESCC. METHODS: All patients receiving nCRT followed by surgery in NEOCRTEC5010-trial (NCT01216527) were included. Non-pCR patients were classified into three subgroups: ypTanyN0M0, ypT0NanyM0 and ypTanyNanyM0. The Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank test was employed to evaluate disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Multivariate regression analysis was performed using a Cox proportional hazards model to identify clinicopathological parameters associated with pCR. RESULTS: Among the 185 patients included, 80 (43.2%) achieved pCR after nCRT. The mean survival time of the pCR group was significantly longer than that of the non-pCR group (92.6 vs. 69.2 months; HR, 2.70; 95% CI: 1.48-4.92; P=0.001). The 5-year OS and DFS of the pCR group were 79.3% and 77% respectively, compared to 54.8% and 51.2%, respectively, in the non-pCR group. The results showed that the OS and DFS of the ypTanyN0M0 group were better than those of the ypT0NanyM0 group and the ypTanyNanyM0 group. We also found that the number of dissected lymph nodes and pCR were independent risk factors for DFS and OS rates. CONCLUSIONS: pCR after nCRT is an important prognostic indicator of OS and DFS in patients with ESCC. In addition, lymph-node status could represent an important parameter in the prognostic evaluation of esophageal cancer patients.

Risk Prediction Model of 90-Day Mortality After Esophagectomy for Cancer.

Importance: Ninety-day mortality rates after esophagectomy are an indicator of the quality of surgical oncologic management. Accurate risk prediction based on large data sets may aid patients and surgeons in making informed decisions. Objective: To develop and validate a risk prediction model of death within 90 days after esophagectomy for cancer using the International Esodata Study Group (IESG) database, the largest existing prospective, multicenter cohort reporting standardized postoperative outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this diagnostic/prognostic study, we performed a retrospective analysis of patients from 39 institutions in 19 countries between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2019. Patients with esophageal cancer were randomly assigned to development and validation cohorts. A scoring system that predicted death within 90 days based on logistic regression ß coefficients was conducted. A final prognostic score was determined and categorized into homogeneous risk groups that predicted death within 90 days. Calibration and discrimination tests were assessed between cohorts. Exposures: Esophageal resection for cancer of the esophagus and gastroesophageal junction. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause postoperative 90-day mortality. Results: A total of 8403 patients (mean [SD] age, 63.6 [9.0] years; 6641 [79.0%] male) were included. The 30-day mortality rate was 2.0% (n = 164), and the 90-day mortality rate was 4.2% (n = 353). Development (n = 4172) and validation (n = 4231) cohorts were randomly assigned. The multiple logistic regression model identified 10 weighted point variables factored into the prognostic score: age, sex, body mass index, performance status, myocardial infarction, connective tissue disease, peripheral vascular disease, liver disease, neoadjuvant treatment, and hospital volume. The prognostic scores were categorized into 5 risk groups: very low risk (score, ≥1; 90-day mortality, 1.8%), low risk (score, 0; 90-day mortality, 3.0%), medium risk (score, -1 to -2; 90-day mortality, 5.8%), high risk (score, -3 to -4: 90-day mortality, 8.9%), and very high risk (score, ≤-5; 90-day mortality, 18.2%). The model was supported by nonsignificance in the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.72) in the development cohort and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.60-0.69) in the validation cohort. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, on the basis of preoperative variables, the IESG risk prediction model allowed stratification of an individual patient's risk of death within 90 days after esophagectomy. These data suggest that this model can help in the decision-making process when esophageal cancer surgery is being considered and in informed consent.