Population mortality before and during the COVID-19 epidemic in two Sudanese settings: a key informant study.

BACKGROUND: Population mortality is an important metric that sums information from different public health risk factors into a single indicator of health. However, the impact of COVID-19 on population mortality in low-income and crisis-affected countries like Sudan remains difficult to measure. Using a community-led approach, we estimated excess mortality during the COVID-19 epidemic in two Sudanese communities. METHODS: Three sets of key informants in two study locations, identified by community-based research teams, were administered a standardised questionnaire to list all known decedents from January 2017 to February 2021. Based on key variables, we linked the records before analysing the data using a capture-recapture statistical technique that models the overlap among lists to estimate the true number of deaths. RESULTS: We estimated that deaths per day were 5.5 times higher between March 2020 and February 2021 compared to the pre-pandemic period in East Gezira, while in El Obeid City, the rate was 1.6 times higher. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that using a community-led capture-recapture methodology to measure excess mortality is a feasible approach in Sudan and similar settings. Deploying similar community-led estimation methodologies should be considered wherever crises and weak health infrastructure prevent an accurate and timely real-time understanding of epidemics' mortality impact in real-time.

Changes in social mixing and attitudes and practices to precautionary measures in a maturing COVID-19 pandemic in six communities in Sudan: a qualitative study.

INTRODUCTION: With low COVID-19 vaccination coverage, non-pharmaceutical interventions were critical to mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic in Sudan. We explored changes in social contact patterns, risk perception, attitudes, and practices toward protective measures during an evolving COVID-19 outbreak in six illustrative communities in Sudan. METHODS: This qualitative study took place in six communities in five Sudanese states using focus group discussions with community members and non-participant structured observations in public spaces between March 2021 and April 2021. A total of 117 participants joined 24 group discussions. We used a two-stage thematic analysis. RESULTS: The perceived importance of compliance with individual preventative measures among those who believe in COVID-19 was higher than observed compliance with behaviors in most study sites. Adherence was consistently low and mainly driven by enforced movement restrictions. As restrictions were lifted, social contacts outside the household resumed pre-COVID-19 levels, and risk perception and individual and institutional adherence to protective measures diminished. We identified an environment that is socially and economically unsupportive of preventive practices, compounded by widespread rumours, misinformation, and mistrust in the government-led response. However, we identified new social habits that can contribute to reducing COVID-19 transmission. CONCLUSION: The unfavourable social and economic environment, coupled with the low visibility of the pandemic and pandemic response, has likely modulated the influence of higher risk perception on adopting precautionary behaviours by individuals. Governments and non-governmental actors should increase the visibility of the pandemic and pandemic response, enforce and incentivise infection control measures in public areas, promote emerging preventive social habits, and actively track and address rumours and misinformation related to COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines.

The Governance of Childhood Vaccination Services in Crisis Settings: A Scoping Review.

The persistence of inadequate vaccination in crisis-affected settings raises concerns about decision making regarding vaccine selection, timing, location, and recipients. This review aims to describe the key features of childhood vaccination intervention design and planning in crisis-affected settings and investigate how the governance of childhood vaccination is defined, understood, and practised. We performed a scoping review of 193 peer-reviewed articles and grey literature on vaccination governance and service design and planning. We focused on 41 crises between 2010 and 2021. Following screening and data extraction, our analysis involved descriptive statistics and applying the governance analysis framework to code text excerpts, employing deductive and inductive approaches. Most documents related to active outbreaks in conflict-affected settings and to the mass delivery of polio, cholera, and measles vaccines. Information on vaccination modalities, target populations, vaccine sources, and funding was limited. We found various interpretations of governance, often implying hierarchical authority and regulation. Analysis of governance arrangements suggests a multi-actor yet fragmented governance structure, with inequitable actor participation, ineffective actor collaboration, and a lack of a shared strategic vision due to competing priorities and accountabilities. Better documentation of vaccination efforts during emergencies, including vaccination decision making, governance, and planning, is needed. We recommend empirical research within decision-making spaces.

Finding the fragments: community-based epidemic surveillance in Sudan.

Sudan faces inter-sectional health risks posed by escalating violent conflict, natural hazards and epidemics. Epidemics are frequent and overlapping, particularly resurgent seasonal outbreaks of diseases such as malaria, cholera. To improve response, the Sudanese Ministry of Health manages multiple disease surveillance systems, however, these systems are fragmented, under resourced, and disconnected from epidemic response efforts. Inversely, civic and informal community-led systems have often organically led outbreak responses, despite having limited access to data and resources from formal outbreak detection and response systems. Leveraging a communal sense of moral obligation, such informal epidemic responses can play an important role in reaching affected populations. While effective, localised, and organised-they cannot currently access national surveillance data, or formal outbreak prevention and response technical and financial resources. This paper calls for urgent and coordinated recognition and support of community-led outbreak responses, to strengthen, diversify, and scale up epidemic surveillance for both national epidemic preparedness and regional health security.

Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems.

Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.

Acceptability and feasibility of strategies to shield the vulnerable during the COVID-19 outbreak: a qualitative study in six Sudanese communities.

BACKGROUND: Shielding of high-risk groups from coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been suggested as a realistic alternative to severe movement restrictions during the COVID-19 epidemic in low-income countries. The intervention entails the establishment of 'green zones' for high-risk persons to live in, either within their homes or in communal structures, in a safe and dignified manner, for extended periods of time during the epidemic. To our knowledge, this concept has not been tested or evaluated in resource-poor settings. This study aimed to explore the acceptability and feasibility of strategies to shield persons at higher risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes, during the COVID-19 epidemic in six communities in Sudan. METHODS: We purposively sampled participants from six communities, illustrative of urban, rural and forcibly-displaced settings. In-depth telephone interviews were held with 59 members of households with one or more members at higher risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Follow-up interviews were held with 30 community members after movement restrictions were eased across the country. All interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed using a two-stage deductive and inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Most participants were aware that some people are at higher risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes but were unaware of the concept of shielding. Most participants found shielding acceptable and consistent with cultural inclinations to respect elders and protect the vulnerable. However, extra-household shielding arrangements were mostly seen as socially unacceptable. Participants reported feasibility concerns related to the reduced socialisation of shielded persons and loss of income for shielding families. The acceptability and feasibility of shielding strategies were reduced after movement restrictions were eased, as participants reported lower perception of risk in their communities and increased pressure to comply with social commitments outside the house. CONCLUSION: Shielding is generally acceptable in the study communities. Acceptability is influenced by feasibility, and by contextual changes in the epidemic and associated policy response. The promotion of shielding should capitalise on the cultural and moral sense of duty towards elders and vulnerable groups. Communities and households should be provided with practical guidance to implement feasible shielding options. Households must be socially, psychologically and financially supported to adopt and sustain shielding effectively.

COVID-19 control in low-income settings and displaced populations: what can realistically be done?

COVID-19 prevention strategies in resource limited settings, modelled on the earlier response in high income countries, have thus far focused on draconian containment strategies, which impose movement restrictions on a wide scale. These restrictions are unlikely to prevent cases from surging well beyond existing hospitalisation capacity; not withstanding their likely severe social and economic costs in the long term. We suggest that in low-income countries, time limited movement restrictions should be considered primarily as an opportunity to develop sustainable and resource appropriate mitigation strategies. These mitigation strategies, if focused on reducing COVID-19 transmission through a triad of prevention activities, have the potential to mitigate bed demand and mortality by a considerable extent. This triade is based on a combination of high-uptake of community led shielding of high-risk individuals, self-isolation of mild to moderately symptomatic cases, and moderate physical distancing in the community. We outline a set of principles for communities to consider how to support the protection of the most vulnerable, by shielding them from infection within and outside their homes. We further suggest three potential shielding options, with their likely applicability to different settings, for communities to consider and that would enable them to provide access to transmission-shielded arrangements for the highest risk community members. Importantly, any shielding strategy would need to be predicated on sound, locally informed behavioural science and monitored for effectiveness and evaluating its potential under realistic modelling assumptions. Perhaps, most importantly, it is essential that these strategies not be perceived as oppressive measures and be community led in their design and implementation. This is in order that they can be sustained for an extended period of time, until COVID-19 can be controlled or vaccine and treatment options become available.

Deaths, injuries and detentions during civil demonstrations in Sudan: a secondary data analysis.

BACKGROUND: Since December 2018, the latest wave of anti-government protests in Sudan has led to deaths, injuries and detentions. We estimated the number of people killed and described patterns of deaths, injuries and detentions up to 9 April 2019. METHODS: We tabulated data from three publicly available lists maintained by Sudanese civil society sources (the Independent Movement, the Sudan Doctors' Union and the "Lest We Forget" project), and applied to these a capture-recapture statistical technique that models the overlap among lists to estimate the number of deaths not on any list. RESULTS: We estimated that about 117 civilians were killed in demonstrations during the above period, a considerably larger number than hitherto reported. Most decedents and injury victims were shot. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis demonstrates the importance of real-time data on political violence collected by civil society initiatives. The de facto Sudanese government should immediately cease attacks against peaceful civilian protesters and put in place guarantees for their safety.

Evidence on public health interventions in humanitarian crises.

Recognition of the need for evidence-based interventions to help to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of humanitarian responses has been increasing. However, little is known about the breadth and quality of evidence on health interventions in humanitarian crises. We describe the findings of a systematic review with the aim of examining the quantity and quality of evidence on public health interventions in humanitarian crises to identify key research gaps. We identified 345 studies published between 1980 and 2014 that met our inclusion criteria. The quantity of evidence varied substantially by health topic, from communicable diseases (n=131), nutrition (n=77), to non-communicable diseases (n=8), and water, sanitation, and hygiene (n=6). We observed common study design and weaknesses in the methods, which substantially reduced the ability to determine causation and attribution of the interventions. Considering the major increase in health-related humanitarian activities in the past three decades and calls for a stronger evidence base, this paper highlights the limited quantity and quality of health intervention research in humanitarian contexts and supports calls to scale up this research.

High-risk sex and displacement among refugees and surrounding populations in 10 countries: the need for integrating interventions.

INTRODUCTION: Between 2004 and 2012, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees conducted behavioural surveillance surveys in 27 separate communities in 10 countries. METHODS: Random systematic or two-stage cluster sampling was used among participants of age 15-49 years, using a modified standard questionnaire. We conducted descriptive data analysis and multivariable logistic regression to identify factors independently associated with multiple sexual partnerships. RESULTS: Of 27 sites surveyed comprising 24 219 individuals, 11 refugee and surrounding communities were paired. Recent displacement comprised less than 10% of participants. Visiting neighbouring communities varied from 8.6 to 74.4%. Multiple sexual partnerships varied from 2.7% in Sudan to 32.5% in Tanzania. Condom use during last sex was low in most of the communities (<5%). The prevalence of forced sex was similar in paired sites, with intimate partner violence being the most frequent, ranging between 1.0 and 4.6% in camps and 0.8 and 3.6% in communities, with the exception of Nepal (10.8 and 9.8%). Being away from home for more than 1 month and having lived in community for less than 12 months was associated with multiple partnerships in six and five of 16 sites, respectively. CONCLUSION: In the largest study of paired sites of refugees in protracted refugee camps and surrounding nationals, data showed no consistent difference in levels of risky sexual behaviour and there was much variation among the different groups. The prevention strategies should be targeted in a highly integrated manner for both the communities. Forced sex among women was reported at similar levels among refugees and nationals, with intimate partner violence being the most common. These findings should reduce stigma and discrimination against refugees.

The Arab Spring: confronting the challenge of non-communicable disease.

This Commentary considers the health system and policy challenges of addressing non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia, countries in the process of re-framing state policies and institutions, including in the health sector. Against this backdrop, a neglected issue of the rapidly rising burden of NCDs threatens both health and economic development. Tackling this worrisome rise in NCDs has been impeded by inadequate policies. Weak health systems, little attention to determinants of health, and limited access to affordable health care complicate effective responses to NCDs, especially in a fragile transitional phase. There remains an opportunity to confront the neglected challenge of NCDs by substantially strengthening policies and scaling up comprehensive health systems to more effectively address the causes and treatment of NCDs, including mental health, ultimately to improve population health overall.

Changes in HIV-related behaviours, knowledge and testing among refugees and surrounding national populations: a multicountry study.

To our knowledge, there is currently no published data on the prevalence of risky sex over time as displaced populations settle into long-term post-emergency refugee camps. To measure trends in HIV-related behaviours, we conducted a series of cross-sectional HIV behavioural surveillance surveys among refugees and surrounding community residents living in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, at baseline in 2004/2005 and at follow-up in 2010/2011. We selected participants using two-stage cluster sampling, except in the Tanzanian refugee camp where systematic random sampling was employed. Participants had to reside in a selected household for more than weeks and aged between 15 and 49 years. We interviewed 11,582 participants (6448 at baseline and 5134 at follow-up) in three camps and their surrounding communities. The prevalence of multiple sexual partnerships ranged between 10.1 and 32.6% at baseline and 4.2 and 20.1% at follow-up, casual partnerships ranged between 8.0 and 33.2% at baseline and 3.5 and 17.4% at follow-up, and transactional partnerships between 1.1 and 14.0% at baseline and 0.8 and 12.0% at follow-up. The prevalence of multiple partnerships and casual sex in the Kenyan and Ugandan camps was not higher than among nationals. To our knowledge these data are the first to describe and compare trends in the prevalence of risky sex among conflict-affected populations and nationals living nearby. The large reductions in risky sexual partnerships are promising and possibly indicative of the success of HIV prevention programs. However, evaluation of specific prevention programmes remains necessary to assess which, and to what extent, specific activities contributed to behavioural change. Notably, refugees had lower levels of multiple and casual sexual partnerships than nationals in Kenya and Uganda and thus should not automatically be assumed to have higher levels of risky sexual behaviours than neighbouring nationals elsewhere.

The burden of tuberculosis in crisis-affected populations: a systematic review.

Crises caused by armed conflict, forced population displacement, or natural disasters result in high rates of excess morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases. Many of these crises occur in areas with a substantial tuberculosis burden. We did a systematic review to summarise what is known about the burden of tuberculosis in crisis settings. We also analysed surveillance data from camps included in UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) surveillance, and investigated the association between conflict intensity and tuberculosis notification rates at the national level with WHO data. We identified 51 reports of tuberculosis burden in populations experiencing displacement, armed conflict, or natural disaster. Notification rates and prevalence were mostly elevated; where incidence or prevalence ratios could be compared with reference populations, these ratios were 2 or higher for 11 of 15 reports. Case-fatality ratios were mostly below 10% and, with exceptions, drug-resistance levels were comparable to those of reference populations. A pattern of excess risk was noted in UNHCR-managed camp data where the rate of smear testing seemed to be consistent with functional tuberculosis programmes. National-level data suggested that conflict was associated with decreases in the notification rate of tuberculosis. More studies with strict case definitions are needed in crisis settings, especially in the acute phase, in internally displaced populations and in urban settings. Findings suggest the need for early establishment of tuberculosis services, especially in displaced populations from high-burden areas and for continued innovation and prioritisation of tuberculosis control in crisis settings.

A study of patient attitudes towards decentralisation of HIV care in an urban clinic in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, limited human resources are a major constraint to achieving universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Many of the public-sector HIV clinics operating within tertiary facilities, that were the first to provide ART in the country, have reached maximum patient capacity. Decentralization or "down-referral" (wherein ART patients deemed stable on therapy are referred to their closest Primary Health Clinics (PHCs) for treatment follow-up) is being used as a possible alternative of ART delivery care. This cross-sectional qualitative study investigates attitudes towards down-referral of ART delivery care among patients currently receiving care in a centralized tertiary HIV clinic. METHODS: Ten focus group discussions (FGDs) with 76 participants were conducted in early 2008 amongst ART patients initiated and receiving care for more than 3 months in the tertiary HIV clinic study site. Eligible individuals were invited to participate in FGDs involving 6-9 participants, and lasting approximately 1-2 hours. A trained moderator used a discussion topic guide to investigate the main issues of interest including: advantages and disadvantages of down-referral, potential motivating factors and challenges of down-referral, assistance needs from the transferring clinic as well as from PHCs. RESULTS: Advantages include closeness to patients' homes, transport and time savings. However, patients favour a centralized service for the following reasons: less stigma, patients established relationship with the centralized clinic, and availability of ancillary services. Most FGDs felt that for down-referral to occur there needed to be training of nurses in patient-provider communication. CONCLUSION: Despite acknowledging the down-referral advantages of close proximity and lower transport costs, many participants expressed concerns about lack of trained HIV clinical staff, negative patient interactions with nurses, limited confidentiality and stigma. There was consensus that training of nurses and improved health systems at the local clinics were needed if successful down-referral was to take place.

Contrasting reasons for discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy in workplace and public-sector HIV programs in South Africa.

Abstract We investigated reasons for clinical follow-up and treatment discontinuation among HIV-infected individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a public-sector clinic and in a workplace clinic in South Africa. Participants in a larger cohort study who had discontinued clinical care by the seventh month of treatment were traced using previously provided locator information. Those located were administered a semistructured questionnaire regarding reasons for discontinuing clinical follow-up. Participants who had discontinued antiretroviral therapy were invited to participate in further in-depth qualitative interviews. Fifty-one of 144 (35.4%) in the workplace cohort had discontinued clinical follow-up by the seventh month of treatment. The median age of those who discontinued follow-up was 46 years and median educational level was five years. By contrast, only 16.5% (44/267) of the public-sector cohort had discontinued follow-up. Among them the median age was 37.5 years and median education was 11 years. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 17 workplace participants and 10 public-sector participants. The main reasons for attrition in the workplace were uncertainty about own HIV status and above the value of ART, poor patient-provider relationships and workplace discrimination. In the public sector, these were moving away and having no money for clinic transport. In the workplace, efforts to minimize the time between testing and treatment initiation should be balanced with the need to provide adequate baseline counseling taking into account existing concepts about HIV and ART. In the public sector, earlier diagnosis and ART initiation may help to reduce early mortality, while links to government grants may reduce attrition.

Correlates of syphilis seroreactivity among pregnant women: the HIVNET 024 Trial in Malawi, Tanzania, and Zambia.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this cross-sectional study were to determine correlates of syphilis seroprevalence among HIV-infected and -uninfected antenatal attendees in an African multisite clinical trial, and to improve strategies for maternal syphilis prevention. RESULTS: A total of 2,270 (86%) women were HIV-infected and 366 (14%) were HIV-uninfected. One hundred seventy-five (6.6%) were syphilis-seropositive (7.3% among HIV-infected and 2.6% HIV-uninfected women). Statistically significant correlates included geographic site (odds ratio [OR] = 4.5, Blantyre; OR = 3.2, Lilongwe; OR = 9.0, Lusaka vs. Dar es Salaam referent); HIV infection (OR = 3.3); age 20 to 24 years (OR = 2.5); being divorced, widowed, or separated (OR = 2.9); genital ulcer treatment in the last year (OR = 2.9); history of stillbirth (OR = 2.8, one stillbirth; OR = 4.3, 2-5 stillbirths); and history of preterm delivery (OR = 2.7, one preterm delivery). CONCLUSION: Many women without identified risk factors were syphilis-seropositive. Younger HIV-infected women were at highest risk. Universal integrated antenatal HIV and syphilis screening and treatment is essential in sub-Saharan African settings.