Estimating and mitigating the risk of COVID-19 epidemic rebound associated with reopening of international borders in Vietnam: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Vietnam has emerged as one of the world's leading success stories in responding to COVID-19. After a prolonged period of little to no transmission, there was an outbreak of unknown source in July, 2020, in the Da Nang region, but the outbreak was quickly suppressed. We aimed to use epidemiological, behavioural, demographic, and policy data from the COVID-19 outbreak in Da Nang to calibrate an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission for Vietnam, and to estimate the risk of future outbreaks associated with reopening of international borders in the country. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used comprehensive data from June 15 to Oct 15, 2020, on testing, COVID-19 cases, and quarantine breaches within an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to model a COVID-19 outbreak in Da Nang in July, 2020. We applied this model to quantify the risk of future outbreaks in Vietnam in the 3 months after the reopening of international borders, under different behavioural scenarios, policy responses (ie, closure of workplaces and schools), and ongoing testing. FINDINGS: We estimated that the outbreak in Da Nang between July and August, 2020, resulted in substantial community transmission, and that higher levels of symptomatic testing could have mitigated this transmission. We estimated that the outbreak peaked on Aug 2, 2020, with an estimated 1060 active infections (95% projection interval 890-1280). If the population of Vietnam remains highly compliant with mask-wearing policies, our projections indicate that the epidemic would remain under control even if a small but steady flow of imported infections escaped quarantine into the community. However, if complacency increases and testing rates are relatively low (10% of symptomatic individuals are tested), the epidemic could rebound again, resulting in an estimated 2100 infections (95% projected interval 1050-3610) in 3 months. These outcomes could be mitigated if the behaviour of the general population responds dynamically to increases in locally acquired cases that exceed specific thresholds, but only if testing of symptomatic individuals is also increased. INTERPRETATION: The successful response to COVID-19 in Vietnam could be improved even further with higher levels of symptomatic testing. If the previous approaches are used in response to new COVID-19 outbreaks, epidemic control is possible even in the presence of low levels of imported cases. FUNDING: Ministry of Science and Technology (Vietnam). TRANSLATION: For the Vietnamese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Testing early warning and response systems through a full-scale exercise in Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Simulation exercises can functionally validate World Health Organization (WHO) International Health Regulations (IHR 2005) core capacities. In 2018, the Vietnam Ministry of Health (MOH) conducted a full-scale exercise (FSX) in response to cases of severe viral pneumonia with subsequent laboratory confirmation for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) to evaluate the country's early warning and response capabilities for high-risk events. METHODS: An exercise planning team designed a complex fictitious scenario beginning with one case of severe viral pneumonia presenting at the hospital level and developed all the materials required for the exercise. Actors, controllers and evaluators were trained. In August 2018, a 3-day exercise was conducted in Quang Ninh province and Hanoi city, with participation of public health partners at the community, district, province, regional and national levels. Immediate debriefings and an after-action review were conducted after all exercise activities. Participants assessed overall exercise design, conduction and usefulness. RESULTS: FSX findings demonstrated that the event-based surveillance component of the MOH surveillance system worked optimally at different administrative levels. Detection and reporting of signals at the community and health facility levels were appropriate. Triage, verification and risk assessment were successfully implemented to identify a high-risk event and trigger timely response. The FSX identified infection control, coordination with internal and external response partners and process documentation as response challenges. Participants positively evaluated the exercise training and design. CONCLUSIONS: This exercise documents the value of exercising surveillance capabilities as part of a real-time operational scenario before facing a true emergency. The timing of this exercise and choice of disease scenario was particularly fortuitous given the subsequent appearance of COVID-19. As a result of this exercise and subsequent improvements made by the MOH, the country may have been better able to deal with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and contain it.

Developing monitoring and evaluation tools for event-based surveillance: experience from Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: In 2016-2017, Vietnam's Ministry of Health (MoH) implemented an event-based surveillance (EBS) pilot project in six provinces as part of Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) efforts. This manuscript describes development and design of tools for monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of EBS in Vietnam. METHODS: A strategic EBS framework was developed based on the EBS implementation pilot project's goals and objectives. The main process and outcome components were identified and included input, activities, outputs, and outcome indicators. M&E tools were developed to collect quantitative and qualitative data. The tools included a supervisory checklist, a desk review tool, a key informant interview guide, a focus group discussion guide, a timeliness form, and an online acceptability survey. An evaluation team conducted field visits for assessment of EBS 5-9 months after implementation. RESULTS: The quantitative data collected provided evidence on the number and type of events that were being reported, the timeliness of the system, and the event-to-signal ratio. The qualitative and subjective data collected helped to increase understanding of the system's field utility and acceptance by field staff, reasons for non-compliance with established guidelines, and other factors influencing implementation. CONCLUSIONS: The use of M&E tools for the EBS pilot project in Vietnam provided data on signals and events reported, timeliness of reporting and response, perceptions and opinions of implementers, and fidelity of EBS implementation. These data were valuable for Vietnam's MoH to understand the function of the EBS program, and the success and challenges of implementing this project in Vietnam.

Building the hospital event-based surveillance system in Viet Nam: a qualitative study to identify potential facilitators and barriers for event reporting.

INTRODUCTION: Hospitals are a key source of information for the early identification of emerging disease outbreaks and acute public health events for risk assessment, decision-making and public health response. The objective of this study was to identify potential facilitators and barriers for event reporting from the curative sector to the preventive medicine sector in Viet Nam. METHODS: In 2016, we conducted 18 semi-structured, in-depth interviews, as well as nine focus group discussions, with representatives from the curative and preventive medicine sectors in four provinces. We transcribed the interviews and focus group discussions and used thematic analysis to identify the factors that appeared to affect public health event reporting. RESULTS: We identified five major themes. First, the lack of a legal framework to guide reporting meant hospital staff relied on internal procedures that varied from hospital to hospital, which sometimes delayed reporting. Second, participants stated the importance of an enabling environment, such as leadership support and having focal points for reporting, to facilitate reporting. Third, participants described the potential benefits of reporting, such as support provided during outbreaks and information received about local outbreaks. Fourth, some challenges prohibited timely reporting such as not perceiving reporting to be the task of the curative sector and hesitancy to report without laboratory confirmation. Finally, limited resources and specialist capacities in remote areas hindered timely detection and reporting of unusual events. DISCUSSION: This study identified potential opportunities to promote the detection and reporting of unusual events from health-care workers to the public health sector, and thus to improve the overall health security system in Viet Nam.The influenza virus is a respiratory pathogen that is transmitted through respiratory droplets. 1 During seasonal influenza epidemics, high attack rates cause a significant public health burden. 2 The infection is usually self-limited in young adults but can lead to severe infections in people in high-risk groups, including elderly people (> 65 years old), pregnant women, children aged 6-59 months and adults with chronic illnesses. 3.

Event-Based Surveillance at Community and Healthcare Facilities, Vietnam, 2016-2017.

Surveillance and outbreak reporting systems in Vietnam required improvements to function effectively as early warning and response systems. Accordingly, the Ministry of Health of Vietnam, in collaboration with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, launched a pilot project in 2016 focusing on community and hospital event-based surveillance. The pilot was implemented in 4 of Vietnam's 63 provinces. The pilot demonstrated that event-based surveillance resulted in early detection and reporting of outbreaks, improved collaboration between the healthcare facilities and preventive sectors of the ministry, and increased community participation in surveillance and reporting.

Zika preparedness and response in Viet Nam.

The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official positions of the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.