Applying optimal control theory to complex epidemiological models to inform real-world disease management.

Mathematical models provide a rational basis to inform how, where and when to control disease. Assuming an accurate spatially explicit simulation model can be fitted to spread data, it is straightforward to use it to test the performance of a range of management strategies. However, the typical complexity of simulation models and the vast set of possible controls mean that only a small subset of all possible strategies can ever be tested. An alternative approach-optimal control theory-allows the best control to be identified unambiguously. However, the complexity of the underpinning mathematics means that disease models used to identify this optimum must be very simple. We highlight two frameworks for bridging the gap between detailed epidemic simulations and optimal control theory: open-loop and model predictive control. Both these frameworks approximate a simulation model with a simpler model more amenable to mathematical analysis. Using an illustrative example model, we show the benefits of using feedback control, in which the approximation and control are updated as the epidemic progresses. Our work illustrates a new methodology to allow the insights of optimal control theory to inform practical disease management strategies, with the potential for application to diseases of humans, animals and plants. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

Correction: Experimentally-Based Computational Investigation into Beat-To-Beat Variability in Ventricular Repolarization and Its Response to Ionic Current Inhibition.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0151461.].

What a Difference a Stochastic Process Makes: Epidemiological-Based Real Options Models of Optimal Treatment of Disease.

The real options approach has been used within environmental economics to investigate the impact of uncertainty on the optimal timing of control measures to minimise the impacts of invasive species, including pests and diseases. Previous studies typically model the growth in infected area using geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The advantage of this simple approach is that it allows for closed form solutions. However, such a process does not capture the mechanisms underlying the spread of infection. In particular the GBM assumption does not respect the natural upper boundary of the system, which is determined by the maximum size of the host species, nor the deceleration in the rate of infection as this boundary is approached. We show how the stochastic process describing the growth in infected area can be derived from the characteristics of the spread of infection. If the model used does not appropriately capture uncertainty in infection dynamics, then the excessive delay before treatment implies that the full value of the option to treat is not realised. Indeed, when uncertainty is high or the disease is fast spreading, ignoring the mechanisms of infection spread can lead to control never being deployed. Thus the results presented here have important implications for the way in which the real options approach is applied to determine optimal timing of disease control given uncertainty in future disease progression.

Experimentally-Based Computational Investigation into Beat-To-Beat Variability in Ventricular Repolarization and Its Response to Ionic Current Inhibition.

Beat-to-beat variability in repolarization (BVR) has been proposed as an arrhythmic risk marker for disease and pharmacological action. The mechanisms are unclear but BVR is thought to be a cell level manifestation of ion channel stochasticity, modulated by cell-to-cell differences in ionic conductances. In this study, we describe the construction of an experimentally-calibrated set of stochastic cardiac cell models that captures both BVR and cell-to-cell differences in BVR displayed in isolated canine action potential measurements using pharmacological agents. Simulated and experimental ranges of BVR are compared in control and under pharmacological inhibition, and the key ionic currents determining BVR under physiological and pharmacological conditions are identified. Results show that the 4-aminopyridine-sensitive transient outward potassium current, Ito1, is a fundamental driver of BVR in control and upon complete inhibition of the slow delayed rectifier potassium current, IKs. In contrast, IKs and the L-type calcium current, ICaL, become the major contributors to BVR upon inhibition of the fast delayed rectifier potassium current, IKr. This highlights both IKs and Ito1 as key contributors to repolarization reserve. Partial correlation analysis identifies the distribution of Ito1 channel numbers as an important independent determinant of the magnitude of BVR and drug-induced change in BVR in control and under pharmacological inhibition of ionic currents. Distributions in the number of IKs and ICaL channels only become independent determinants of the magnitude of BVR upon complete inhibition of IKr. These findings provide quantitative insights into the ionic causes of BVR as a marker for repolarization reserve, both under control condition and pharmacological inhibition.

Integrating stochasticity and network structure into an epidemic model.

While the foundations of modern epidemiology are based upon deterministic models with homogeneous mixing, it is being increasingly realized that both spatial structure and stochasticity play major roles in shaping epidemic dynamics. The integration of these two confounding elements is generally ascertained through numerical simulation. Here, for the first time, we develop a more rigorous analytical understanding based on pairwise approximations to incorporate localized spatial structure and diffusion approximations to capture the impact of stochasticity. Our results allow us to quantify, analytically, the impact of network structure on the variability of an epidemic. Using the susceptible-infectious-susceptible framework for the infection dynamics, the pairwise stochastic model is compared with the stochastic homogeneous-mixing (mean-field) model--although to enable a fair comparison the homogeneous-mixing parameters are scaled to give agreement with the pairwise dynamics. At equilibrium, we show that the pairwise model always displays greater variation about the mean, although the differences are generally small unless the prevalence of infection is low. By contrast, during the early epidemic growth phase when the level of infection is increasing exponentially, the pairwise model generally shows less variation.