COVID-19 in Malaysia: Descriptive Epidemiologic Characteristics of the First Wave.

This study aimed to describe the characteristics of COVID-19 cases and close contacts during the first wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia (23 January 2020 to 26 February 2020), and to analyse the reasons why the outbreak did not continue to spread and lessons that can be learnt from this experience. Characteristics of the cases and close contacts, spatial spread, epidemiological link, and timeline of the cases were examined. An extended SEIR model was developed using several parameters such as the average number of contacts per day per case, the proportion of close contact traced per day and the mean daily rate at which infectious cases are isolated to determine the basic reproduction number (R0) and trajectory of cases. During the first wave, a total of 22 cases with 368 close contacts were traced, identified, tested, quarantine and isolated. Due to the effective and robust outbreak control measures put in place such as early case detection, active screening, extensive contact tracing, testing and prompt isolation/quarantine, the outbreak was successfully contained and controlled. The SEIR model estimated the R0 at 0.9 which further supports the decreasing disease dynamics and early termination of the outbreak. As a result, there was a 11-day gap (free of cases) between the first and second wave which indicates that the first wave was not linked to the second wave.

The effects of super spreading events and movement control measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia.

This paper aims to develop an automated web application to generate validated daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt) which can be used to examine the effects of super-spreading events due to mass gatherings and the effectiveness of the various Movement Control Order (MCO) stringency levels on the outbreak progression of COVID-19 in Malaysia. The effective reproduction number, Rt, was estimated by adopting and modifying an Rt estimation algorithm using a validated distribution mean of 3.96 and standard deviation of 4.75 with a seven-day sliding window. The Rt values generated were validated using thea moving window SEIR model with a negative binomial likelihood fitted using methods from the Bayesian inferential framework. A Pearson's correlation between the Rt values estimated by the algorithm and the SEIR model was r = 0.70, p < 0.001 and r = 0.81, p < 0.001 during the validation period The Rt increased to reach the highest values at 3.40 (95% CI 1.47, 6.14) and 1.72 (95% CI 1.54, 1.90) due to the Sri Petaling and Sabah electoral process during the second and third waves of COVID-19 respectively. The MCOs was able to reduce the Rt values by 63.2 to 77.1% and 37.0 to 47.0% during the second and third waves of COVID-19, respectively. Mass gathering events were one of the important drivers of the COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia. However, COVID-19 transmission can be fuelled by noncompliance to Standard Operating Procedure, population mobility, ventilation and environmental factors.

Forecasting COVID-19 Case Trends Using SARIMA Models during the Third Wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

With many countries experiencing a resurgence in COVID-19 cases, it is important to forecast disease trends to enable effective planning and implementation of control measures. This study aims to develop Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models using 593 data points and smoothened case and covariate time-series data to generate a 28-day forecast of COVID-19 case trends during the third wave in Malaysia. SARIMA models were developed using COVID-19 case data sourced from the Ministry of Health Malaysia's official website. Model training and validation was conducted from 22 January 2020 to 5 September 2021 using daily COVID-19 case data. The SARIMA model with the lowest root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAE) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) was selected to generate forecasts from 6 September to 3 October 2021. The best SARIMA model with a RMSE = 73.374, MAE = 39.716 and BIC = 8.656 showed a downward trend of COVID-19 cases during the forecast period, wherein the observed daily cases were within the forecast range. The majority (89%) of the difference between the forecasted and observed values was well within a deviation range of 25%. Based on this work, we conclude that SARIMA models developed in this paper using 593 data points and smoothened data and sensitive covariates can generate accurate forecast of COVID-19 case trends.

Effectiveness of the movement control measures during the third wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia.

OBJECTIVES: Starting in March 2020, movement control measures were instituted across several phases in Malaysia to break the chain of transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). In this study, we developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to examine the effects of the various phases of movement control measures on disease transmissibility and the trend of cases during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia. METHODS: Three SEIR models were developed using the R programming software ODIN interface based on COVID-19 case data from September 1, 2020, to March 29, 2021. The models were validated and subsequently used to provide forecasts of daily cases from October 14, 2020, to March 29, 2021, based on 3 phases of movement control measures. RESULTS: We found that the reproduction rate (R-value) of COVID-19 decreased by 59.1% from an initial high of 2.2 during the nationwide Recovery Movement Control Order (RMCO) to 0.9 during the Movement Control Order (MCO) and Conditional MCO (CMCO) phases. In addition, the observed cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases were much lower than the forecasted cumulative and daily highest numbers of cases (by 64.4-98.9% and 68.8-99.8%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The movement control measures progressively reduced the R-value during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, more stringent movement control measures such as the MCO and CMCO were effective for further lowering the R-value and case numbers during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia due to their higher stringency than the nationwide RMCO.

Working Memory Performance under a Negative Affect Is More Susceptible to Higher Cognitive Workloads with Different Neural Haemodynamic Correlates.

The effect of stress on task performance is complex, too much or too little stress negatively affects performance and there exists an optimal level of stress to drive optimal performance. Task difficulty and external affective factors are distinct stressors that impact cognitive performance. Neuroimaging studies showed that mood affects working memory performance and the correlates are changes in haemodynamic activity in the prefrontal cortex (PFC). We investigate the interactive effects of affective states and working memory load (WML) on working memory task performance and haemodynamic activity using functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) neuroimaging on the PFC of healthy participants. We seek to understand if haemodynamic responses could tell apart workload-related stress from situational stress arising from external affective distraction. We found that the haemodynamic changes towards affective stressor- and workload-related stress were more dominant in the medial and lateral PFC, respectively. Our study reveals distinct affective state-dependent modulations of haemodynamic activity with increasing WML in n-back tasks, which correlate with decreasing performance. The influence of a negative effect on performance is greater at higher WML, and haemodynamic activity showed evident changes in temporal, and both spatial and strength of activation differently with WML.

Determine neighboring region spatial effect on dengue cases using ensemble ARIMA models.

The state of Selangor, in Malaysia consist of urban and peri-urban centres with good transportation system, and suitable temperature levels with high precipitations and humidity which make the state ideal for high number of dengue cases, annually. This study investigates if districts within the Selangor state do influence each other in determining pattern of dengue cases. Study compares two different models; the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Ensemble ARIMA models, using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) measurement to gauge their performance tools. ARIMA model is developed using the epidemiological data of dengue cases, whereas ensemble ARIMA incorporates the neighbouring regions' dengue models as the exogenous variable (X), into traditional ARIMA model. Ensemble ARIMA models have better model fit compared to the basic ARIMA models by incorporating neighbuoring effects of seven districts which made of state of Selangor. The AIC and BIC values of ensemble ARIMA models to be smaller compared to traditional ARIMA counterpart models. Thus, study concludes that pattern of dengue cases for a district is subject to spatial effects of its neighbouring districts and number of dengue cases in the surrounding areas.

Tracking the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a time-varying SIR model.

The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model offers the simplest framework to study transmission dynamics of COVID-19, however, it does not factor in its early depleting trend observed during a lockdown. We modified the SIR model to specifically simulate the early depleting transmission dynamics of COVID-19 to better predict its temporal trend in Malaysia. The classical SIR model was fitted to observed total (I total), active (I) and removed (R) cases of COVID-19 before lockdown to estimate the basic reproduction number. Next, the model was modified with a partial time-varying force of infection, given by a proportionally depleting transmission coefficient, [Formula: see text] and a fractional term, z. The modified SIR model was then fitted to observed data over 6 weeks during the lockdown. Model fitting and projection were validated using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). The transmission dynamics of COVID-19 was interrupted immediately by the lockdown. The modified SIR model projected the depleting temporal trends with lowest MAPE for I total, followed by I, I daily and R. During lockdown, the dynamics of COVID-19 depleted at a rate of 4.7% each day with a decreased capacity of 40%. For 7-day and 14-day projections, the modified SIR model accurately predicted I total, I and R. The depleting transmission dynamics for COVID-19 during lockdown can be accurately captured by time-varying SIR model. Projection generated based on observed data is useful for future planning and control of COVID-19.

Segmentation of acne lesion using fuzzy C-means technique with intelligent selection of the desired cluster.

Segmentation is the basic and important step for digital image analysis and understanding. Segmentation of acne lesions in the visual spectrum of light is very challenging due to factors such as varying skin tones due to ethnicity, camera calibration and the lighting conditions. In this approach the color image is transformed into various color spaces. The image is decomposed into the specified number of homogeneous regions based on the similarity of color using fuzzy C-means clustering technique. Features are extracted for each cluster and average values of these features are calculated. A new objective function is defined that selects the cluster holding the lesion pixels based on the average value of cluster features. In this study segmentation results are generated in four color spaces (RGB, rgb, YIQ, I1I2I3) and two individual color components (I3, Q). The number of clusters is varied from 2 to 6. The experiment was carried out on fifty images of acne patients. The performance of the proposed technique is measured in terms of the three mostly used metrics; sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. Best results were obtained for Q and I3 color components of YIQ and I1I2I3 color spaces with the number of clusters equal to three. These color components show robustness against non-uniform illumination and maximize the gap between the lesion and skin color.

Curvelet based automatic segmentation of supraspinatus tendon from ultrasound image: a focused assistive diagnostic method.

BACKGROUND: Disorders of rotator cuff tendons results in acute pain limiting the normal range of motion for shoulder. Of all the tendons in rotator cuff, supraspinatus (SSP) tendon is affected first of any pathological changes. Diagnosis of SSP tendon using ultrasound is considered to be operator dependent with its accuracy being related to operator's level of experience. METHODS: The automatic segmentation of SSP tendon ultrasound image was performed to provide focused and more accurate diagnosis. The image processing techniques were employed for automatic segmentation of SSP tendon. The image processing techniques combines curvelet transform and mathematical concepts of logical and morphological operators along with area filtering. The segmentation assessment was performed using true positives rate, false positives rate and also accuracy of segmentation. The specificity and sensitivity of the algorithm was tested for diagnosis of partial thickness tears (PTTs) and full thickness tears (FTTs). The ultrasound images of SSP tendon were taken from medical center with the help of experienced radiologists. The algorithm was tested on 116 images taken from 51 different patients. RESULTS: The accuracy of segmentation of SSP tendon was calculated to be 95.61% in accordance with the segmentation performed by radiologists, with true positives rate of 91.37% and false positives rate of 8.62%. The specificity and sensitivity was found to be 93.6%, 94% and 95%, 95.6% for partial thickness tears and full thickness tears respectively. The proposed methodology was successfully tested over a database of more than 116 US images, for which radiologist assessment and validation was performed. CONCLUSIONS: The segmentation of SSP tendon from ultrasound images helps in focused, accurate and more reliable diagnosis which has been verified with the help of two experienced radiologists. The specificity and sensitivity for accurate detection of partial and full thickness tears has been considerably increased after segmentation when compared with existing literature.