Unexpectedly rapid aerosol formation in the Hunga Tonga plume.

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HT-HH) volcanic eruptions on January 13 and 15, 2022, produced a plume with the highest signal in stratospheric aerosol optical depth observed since the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. Suites of balloon-borne instruments on a series of launches from Réunion Island intercepted the HT-HH plume between 7 and 10 d of the eruptions, yielding observations of the aerosol number and size distribution and sulfur dioxide (SO2) and water vapor (H2O) concentrations. The measurements reveal an unexpected abundance of large particles in the plume, constrain the total sulfur injected to approximately 0.2 Tg, provide information on the altitude of the injection, and indicate that the formation of sulfuric acid aerosol was complete within 3 wk. Large H2O enhancements contributed as much as ~30% to ambient aerosol surface area and likely accelerated SO2 oxidation and aerosol formation rates in the plume to approximately three times faster than under normal stratospheric conditions.

Rapid ozone depletion after humidification of the stratosphere by the Hunga Tonga Eruption.

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on 15 January 2022 offered a good opportunity to explore the early impacts of tropical volcanic eruptions on stratospheric composition. Balloon-borne observations near Réunion Island revealed the unprecedented amount of water vapor injected by the volcano. The enhanced stratospheric humidity, radiative cooling, and expanded aerosol surface area in the volcanic plume created the ideal conditions for swift ozone depletion of 5% in the tropical stratosphere in just 1 week. The decrease in hydrogen chloride by 0.4 parts per million by volume (ppbv) and the increase in chlorine monoxide by 0.4 ppbv provided compelling evidence for chlorine activation within the volcanic plume. This study enhances our understanding of the effect of this unusual volcanic eruption on stratospheric chemistry and provides insights into possible chemistry changes that may occur in a changing climate.

Response of stratospheric water vapour to warming constrained by satellite observations.

Future increases in stratospheric water vapour risk amplifying climate change and slowing down the recovery of the ozone layer. However, state-of-the-art climate models strongly disagree on the magnitude of these increases under global warming. Uncertainty primarily arises from the complex processes leading to dehydration of air during its tropical ascent into the stratosphere. Here we derive an observational constraint on this longstanding uncertainty. We use a statistical-learning approach to infer historical co-variations between the atmospheric temperature structure and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations. For climate models, we demonstrate that these historically constrained relationships are highly predictive of the water vapour response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. We obtain an observationally constrained range for stratospheric water vapour changes per degree of global warming of 0.31 ± 0.39 ppmv K-1. Across 61 climate models, we find that a large fraction of future model projections are inconsistent with observational evidence. In particular, frequently projected strong increases (>1 ppmv K-1) are highly unlikely. Our constraint represents a 50% decrease in the 95th percentile of the climate model uncertainty distribution, which has implications for surface warming, ozone recovery and the tropospheric circulation response under climate change.

Arthroscopic Techniques to Stabilize Glenoid Bony Bankart Fragments.

A bony Bankart lesion is an avulsion of the labroligamentous complex associated with an anterior glenoid rim fracture. Bony Bankart lesions can be seen in up to 70% of traumatic shoulder dislocations. With such a high prevalence, the development of an optimal repair technique is important. Selection of the most appropriate repair method depends heavily on the individual hard- and soft-tissue characteristics of the presenting lesion, as well as surgeon experience with the various repair options. We describe 3 arthroscopic Bankart fixation techniques (labrum alone, transosseous, and double row) to address a range of presenting Bankart pathologies.

Black carbon lofts wildfire smoke high into the stratosphere to form a persistent plume.

In 2017, western Canadian wildfires injected smoke into the stratosphere that was detectable by satellites for more than 8 months. The smoke plume rose from 12 to 23 kilometers within 2 months owing to solar heating of black carbon, extending the lifetime and latitudinal spread. Comparisons of model simulations to the rate of observed lofting indicate that 2% of the smoke mass was black carbon. The observed smoke lifetime in the stratosphere was 40% shorter than calculated with a standard model that does not consider photochemical loss of organic carbon. Photochemistry is represented by using an empirical ozone-organics reaction probability that matches the observed smoke decay. The observed rapid plume rise, latitudinal spread, and photochemical reactions provide new insights into potential global climate impacts from nuclear war.

Assessment of upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor and ozone in reanalyses as part of S-RIP.

Reanalysis data sets are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. In this paper, we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. We also provide a systematic documentation of the treatment of WV and O3 in current reanalyses to aid future research and guide the interpretation of differences amongst reanalysis fields. The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. However, significant biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses. In contrast to O3, reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore mainly dependent on the reanalyses' representation of the physical drivers that influence stratospheric WV, such as temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer, methane oxidation, and the stratospheric overturning circulation. The lack of assimilated observations and known deficiencies in the representation of stratospheric transport in reanalyses result in much poorer agreement amongst observational and reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV. Hence, stratospheric WV products from the current generation of reanalyses should generally not be used in scientific studies.

The Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database: a long-term database for climate studies.

In this paper, we describe the construction of the Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database, which includes vertically resolved ozone and water vapor data from a subset of the limb profiling satellite instruments operating since the 1980s. The primary SWOOSH products are zonal-mean monthly-mean time series of water vapor and ozone mixing ratio on pressure levels (12 levels per decade from 316 to 1 hPa). The SWOOSH pressure level products are provided on several independent zonal-mean grids (2.5, 5, and 10°), and additional products include two coarse 3-D griddings (30° long × 10° lat, 20° × 5°) as well as a zonal-mean isentropic product. SWOOSH includes both individual satellite source data as well as a merged data product. A key aspect of the merged product is that the source records are homogenized to account for inter-satellite biases and to minimize artificial jumps in the record. We describe the SWOOSH homogenization process, which involves adjusting the satellite data records to a "reference" satellite using coincident observations during time periods of instrument overlap. The reference satellite is chosen based on the best agreement with independent balloon-based sounding measurements, with the goal of producing a long-term data record that is both homogeneous (i.e., with minimal artificial jumps in time) and accurate (i.e., unbiased). This paper details the choice of reference measurements, homogenization, and gridding process involved in the construction of the combined SWOOSH product and also presents the ancillary information stored in SWOOSH that can be used in future studies of water vapor and ozone variability. Furthermore, a discussion of uncertainties in the combined SWOOSH record is presented, and examples of the SWOOSH record are provided to illustrate its use for studies of ozone and water vapor variability on interannual to decadal timescales. The version 2.5 SWOOSH data are publicly available at doi:10.7289/V5TD9VBX.

Recent divergences in stratospheric water vapor measurements by frost point hygrometers and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder.

Balloon-borne frost point hygrometers (FPs) and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) provide high-quality vertical profile measurements of water vapor in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). A previous comparison of stratospheric water vapor measurements by FPs and MLS over three sites - Boulder, Colorado (40.0° N); Hilo, Hawaii (19.7° N); and Lauder, New Zealand (45.0° S) - from August 2004 through December 2012 not only demonstrated agreement better than 1% between 68 and 26 hPa but also exposed statistically significant biases of 2 to 10% at 83 and 100 hPa (Hurst et al., 2014). A simple linear regression analysis of the FP-MLS differences revealed no significant long-term drifts between the two instruments. Here we extend the drift comparison to mid-2015 and add two FP sites - Lindenberg, Germany (52.2° N), and San José, Costa Rica (10.0° N) - that employ FPs of different manufacture and calibration for their water vapor soundings. The extended comparison period reveals that stratospheric FP and MLS measurements over four of the five sites have diverged at rates of 0.03 to 0.07 ppmv year-1 (0.6 to 1.5% year-1) from ~2010 to mid-2015. These rates are similar in magnitude to the 30-year (1980-2010) average growth rate of stratospheric water vapor (~ 1% year-1) measured by FPs over Boulder (Hurst et al., 2011). By mid-2015, the FP-MLS differences at some sites were large enough to exceed the combined accuracy estimates of the FP and MLS measurements.

Validation of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder stratospheric water vapor measurements by the NOAA frost point hygrometer.

Differences between stratospheric water vapor measurements by NOAA frost point hygrometers (FPHs) and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are evaluated for the period August 2004 through December 2012 at Boulder, Colorado, Hilo, Hawaii, and Lauder, New Zealand. Two groups of MLS profiles coincident with the FPH soundings at each site are identified using unique sets of spatiotemporal criteria. Before evaluating the differences between coincident FPH and MLS profiles, each FPH profile is convolved with the MLS averaging kernels for eight pressure levels from 100 to 26 hPa (~16 to 25 km) to reduce its vertical resolution to that of the MLS water vapor retrievals. The mean FPH - MLS differences at every pressure level (100 to 26 hPa) are well within the combined measurement uncertainties of the two instruments. However, the mean differences at 100 and 83 hPa are statistically significant and negative, ranging from -0.46 ± 0.22 ppmv (-10.3 ± 4.8%) to -0.10 ± 0.05 ppmv (-2.2 ± 1.2%). Mean differences at the six pressure levels from 68 to 26 hPa are on average 0.8% (0.04 ppmv), and only a few are statistically significant. The FPH - MLS differences at each site are examined for temporal trends using weighted linear regression analyses. The vast majority of trends determined here are not statistically significant, and most are smaller than the minimum trends detectable in this analysis. Except at 100 and 83 hPa, the average agreement between MLS retrievals and FPH measurements of stratospheric water vapor is better than 1%.

Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming.

Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased by about 10% after the year 2000. Here we show that this acted to slow the rate of increase in global surface temperature over 2000-2009 by about 25% compared to that which would have occurred due only to carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. More limited data suggest that stratospheric water vapor probably increased between 1980 and 2000, which would have enhanced the decadal rate of surface warming during the 1990s by about 30% as compared to estimates neglecting this change. These findings show that stratospheric water vapor is an important driver of decadal global surface climate change.