Estimating distribution and abundance of wide-ranging species with integrated spatial models: Opportunities revealed by the first wolf assessment in south-central Italy.

Estimating demographic parameters for wide-ranging and elusive species living at low density is challenging, especially at the scale of an entire country. To produce wolf distribution and abundance estimates for the whole south-central portion of the Italian wolf population, we developed an integrated spatial model, based on the data collected during a 7-month sampling campaign in 2020-2021. Data collection comprised an extensive survey of wolf presence signs, and an intensive survey in 13 sampling areas, aimed at collecting non-invasive genetic samples (NGS). The model comprised (i) a single-season, multiple data-source, multi-event occupancy model and (ii) a spatially explicit capture-recapture model. The information about species' absence was used to inform local density estimates. We also performed a simulation-based assessment, to estimate the best conditions for optimizing sub-sampling and population modelling in the future. The integrated spatial model estimated that 74.2% of the study area in south-central Italy (95% CIs = 70.5% to 77.9%) was occupied by wolves, for a total extent of the wolf distribution of 108,534 km2 (95% CIs = 103,200 to 114,000). The estimate of total population size for the Apennine wolf population was of 2557 individuals (SD = 171.5; 95% CIs = 2127 to 2844). Simulations suggested that the integrated spatial model was associated with an average tendency to slightly underestimate population size. Also, the main contribution of the integrated approach was to increase precision in the abundance estimates, whereas it did not affect accuracy significantly. In the future, the area subject to NGS should be increased to at least 30%, while at least a similar proportion should be sampled for presence-absence data, to further improve the accuracy of population size estimates and avoid the risk of underestimation. This approach could be applied to other wide-ranging species and in other geographical areas, but specific a priori evaluations of model requirements and expected performance should be made.

Very Small Home Ranges of Two Gravid European Brown Bears during Hyperphagia.

In September 2019, two gravid female brown bears (Ursus arctos) were captured and equipped with GPS/GSM collars in Paklenica National Park (Croatia). Home ranges during hyperphagia were analyzed to describe the spatiotemporal requirements. Mean seasonal home ranges were very small with 9.2 km2 and 7.5 km2 (Brownian Bridge Movement Model 95%). During the tracking period, both bears used different territories and showed little to no use of overlapping area. The bears in our study spent a considerable time in proximity of artificial feeding sites, indicating a probable use of these structures as a food resource (mean 15.7% and 30.7%). Furthermore, the bears approached very close to human structures such as 8.9 m and 4.4 m. As most encounters between humans and bears occur during hyperphagia, it is important to offer refugia from human disturbance, especially as the National Park is not only used by residents, but also by tourists. To adapt management according to the animal's needs, further studies should include more individuals from different age and sex classes. Both females were gravid. It remains unclear whether gravidity has an effect on the home range and should be further investigated.

The frequency of rare and monogenic diseases in pediatric organ transplant recipients in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Rare diseases are chronic and life-threatening disorders affecting < 1 person every 2,000. For most of them, clinical symptoms and signs can be observed at birth or childhood. Approximately 80% of all rare diseases have a genetic background and most of them are monogenic conditions. In addition, while the majority of these diseases is still incurable, early diagnosis and specific treatment can improve patients' quality of life. Transplantation is among the therapeutic options and represents the definitive treatment for end-stage organ failure, both in children and adults. The aim of this paper was to analyze, in a large cohort of Italian patients, the main rare genetic diseases that led to organ transplantation, specifically pointing the attention on the pediatric cohort. RESULTS: To the purpose of our analysis, we considered heart, lung, liver and kidney transplants included in the Transplant Registry (TR) of the Italian National Transplantation Center in the 2002-2019 timeframe. Overall, 49,404 recipients were enrolled in the cohort, 5.1% of whom in the pediatric age. For 40,909 (82.8%) transplant recipients, a disease diagnosis was available, of which 38,615 in the adult cohort, while 8,495 patients (17.2%) were undiagnosed. There were 128 disease categories, and of these, 117 were listed in the main rare disease databases. In the pediatric cohort, 2,294 (5.6%) patients had a disease diagnosis: of the 2,126 (92.7%) patients affected by a rare disease, 1,402 (61.1%) presented with a monogenic condition. As expected, the frequencies of pathologies leading to organ failure were different between the pediatric and the adult cohort. Moreover, the pediatric group was characterized, compared to the adult one, by an overall better survival of the graft at ten years after transplant, with the only exception of lung transplants. When comparing survival considering rare vs non-rare diseases or rare and monogenic vs rare non-monogenic conditions, no differences were highlighted for kidney and lung transplants, while rare diseases had a better survival in liver as opposed to heart transplants. CONCLUSIONS: This work represents the first national survey analyzing the main genetic causes and frequencies of rare and/or monogenic diseases leading to organ failure and requiring transplantation both in adults and children.