ABSTRACT
The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models.
ABSTRACT
Reconstruction of an 83-year record (1903 to 1985) of the discharge of the Amazon River shows that there has been no statistically significant change in discharge over the period of record and that the predominant interannual variability occurs on the 2- to 3-year time scale. Oscillations of river discharge predate significant human influences in the Amazon basin and reflect both extrabasinal and local factors. Cross-spectrum analyses of Amazon flow anomalies with indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon suggest that the oscillations in the hydrograph are coupled to the tropical Pacific climate cycle.
