Point Prevalence Estimates of Activity-Limiting Long-term Symptoms Among United States Adults ≥1 Month After Reported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection, 1 November 2021.

BACKGROUND: Although most adults infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) fully recover, a proportion have ongoing symptoms, or post-COVID conditions (PCC), after infection. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the number of United States (US) adults with activity-limiting PCC on 1 November 2021. METHODS: We modeled the prevalence of PCC using reported infections occurring from 1 February 2020 to 30 September 2021, and population-based, household survey data on new activity-limiting symptoms ≥1 month following SARS-CoV-2 infection. From these data sources, we estimated the number and proportion of US adults with activity-limiting PCC on 1 November 2021 as 95% uncertainty intervals, stratified by sex and age. Sensitivity analyses adjusted for underascertainment of infections and uncertainty about symptom duration. RESULTS: On 1 November 2021, at least 3.0-5.0 million US adults, or 1.2%-1.9% of the US adult population, were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC of ≥1 month's duration. Population prevalence was higher in females (1.4%-2.2%) than males. The estimated prevalence after adjusting for underascertainment of infections was 1.7%-3.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Millions of US adults were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC. These estimates can support future efforts to address the impact of PCC on the US population.

Estimating the numbers of pregnant women infected with Zika virus and infants with congenital microcephaly in Colombia, 2015-2017.

BACKGROUND: Colombia experienced a Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in 2015-2016. To assist with planning for medical and supportive services for infants affected by prenatal ZIKV infection, we used a model to estimate the number of pregnant women infected with ZIKV and the number of infants with congenital microcephaly from August 2015 to August 2017. METHODS: We used nationally reported cases of symptomatic ZIKV disease among pregnant women and information from the literature on the percent of asymptomatic infections to estimate the number of pregnant women with ZIKV infection occurring August 2015-December 2016. We then estimated the number of infants with congenital microcephaly expected to occur August 2015-August 2017. To compare to the observed counts of infants with congenital microcephaly due to all causes reported through the national birth defects surveillance system, the model was time limited to produce estimates for February-November 2016. FINDINGS: We estimated 1140-2160 (interquartile range [IQR]) infants with congenital microcephaly in Colombia, during August 2015-August 2017, whereas 340-540 infants with congenital microcephaly would be expected in the absence of ZIKV. Based on the time limited version of the model, for February-November 2016, we estimated 650-1410 infants with congenital microcephaly in Colombia. The 95% uncertainty interval for the latter estimate encompasses the 476 infants with congenital microcephaly reported during that approximate time frame based on national birth defects surveillance. INTERPRETATION: Based on modeled estimates, ZIKV infection during pregnancy in Colombia could lead to 3-4 times as many infants with congenital microcephaly in 2015-2017 as would have been expected in the absence of the ZIKV outbreak. FUNDING: This publication was made possible through support provided by the Bureau for Global Health, U.S. Agency for International Development under the terms of an Interagency Agreement with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Proportion of selected congenital heart defects attributable to recognized risk factors.

PURPOSE: To assess the contribution of multiple risk factors for two congenital heart defects-hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) and tetralogy of Fallot (TOF). METHODS: We used data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (1997-2011) to estimate average adjusted population attributable fractions for several recognized risk factors, including maternal prepregnancy overweight-obesity, pregestational diabetes, age, and infant sex. RESULTS: There were 594 cases of isolated simple HLHS, 971 cases of isolated simple TOF, and 11,829 controls in the analysis. Overall, 57.0% of HLHS cases and 37.0% of TOF cases were estimated to be attributable to risk factors included in our model. Among modifiable HLHS risk factors, maternal prepregnancy overweight-obesity accounted for the largest proportion of cases (6.5%). Among modifiable TOF risk factors, maternal prepregnancy overweight-obesity and maternal age of 35 years or older accounted for the largest proportions of cases (8.3% and 4.3%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of HLHS cases and one-third of TOF cases were estimated to be attributable to risk factors included in our models. Interventions targeting factors that can be modified may help reduce the risk of HLHS and TOF development. Additional research into the etiology of HLHS and TOF may reveal other modifiable risk factors that might contribute to primary prevention efforts.

Congenital Heart Defects in the United States: Estimating the Magnitude of the Affected Population in 2010.

BACKGROUND: Because of advancements in care, there has been a decline in mortality from congenital heart defects (CHDs) over the past several decades. However, there are no current empirical data documenting the number of people living with CHDs in the United States. Our aim was to estimate the CHD prevalence across all age groups in the United States in the year 2010. METHODS: The age-, sex-, and severity-specific observed prevalence of CHDs in Québec, Canada, in the year 2010 was assumed to equal the CHD prevalence in the non-Hispanic white population in the United States in 2010. A race-ethnicity adjustment factor, reflecting differential survival between racial-ethnic groups through 5 years of age for individuals with a CHD and that in the general US population, was applied to the estimated non-Hispanic white rates to derive CHD prevalence estimates among US non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics. Confidence intervals for the estimated CHD prevalence rates and case counts were derived from a combination of Taylor series approximations and Monte Carlo simulation. RESULTS: We estimated that ≈2.4 million people (1.4 million adults, 1 million children) were living with CHDs in the United States in 2010. Nearly 300 000 of these individuals had severe CHDs. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates highlight the need for 2 important efforts: planning for health services delivery to meet the needs of the growing population of adults with CHD and the development of surveillance data across the life span to provide empirical estimates of the prevalence of CHD across all age groups in the United States.

Assessing the association between natural food folate intake and blood folate concentrations: a systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis of trials and observational studies.

Folate is found naturally in foods or as synthetic folic acid in dietary supplements and fortified foods. Adequate periconceptional folic acid intake can prevent neural tube defects. Folate intake impacts blood folate concentration; however, the dose-response between natural food folate and blood folate concentrations has not been well described. We estimated this association among healthy females. A systematic literature review identified studies (1 1992-3 2014) with both natural food folate intake alone and blood folate concentration among females aged 12-49 years. Bayesian methods were used to estimate regression model parameters describing the association between natural food folate intake and subsequent blood folate concentration. Seven controlled trials and 29 observational studies met the inclusion criteria. For the six studies using microbiologic assay (MA) included in the meta-analysis, we estimate that a 6% (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 4%, 9%) increase in red blood cell (RBC) folate concentration and a 7% (95% CrI: 1%, 12%) increase in serum/plasma folate concentration can occur for every 10% increase in natural food folate intake. Using modeled results, we estimate that a natural food folate intake of ≥ 450 µg dietary folate equivalents (DFE)/day could achieve the lower bound of an RBC folate concentration (~ 1050 nmol/L) associated with the lowest risk of a neural tube defect. Natural food folate intake affects blood folate concentration and adequate intakes could help women achieve a RBC folate concentration associated with a risk of 6 neural tube defects/10,000 live births.

Assessing the association between the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) 677C>T polymorphism and blood folate concentrations: a systematic review and meta-analysis of trials and observational studies.

BACKGROUND: The methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) 677C>T polymorphism is a risk factor for neural tube defects. The T allele produces an enzyme with reduced folate-processing capacity, which has been associated with lower blood folate concentrations. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the association between MTHFR C677T genotypes and blood folate concentrations among healthy women aged 12-49 y. DESIGN: We conducted a systematic review of the literature published from January 1992 to March 2014 to identify trials and observational studies that reported serum, plasma, or red blood cell (RBC) folate concentrations and MTHFR C677T genotype. We conducted a meta-analysis for estimates of percentage differences in blood folate concentrations between genotypes. RESULTS: Forty studies met the inclusion criteria. Of the 6 studies that used the microbiologic assay (MA) to measure serum or plasma (S/P) and RBC folate concentrations, the percentage difference between genotypes showed a clear pattern of CC > CT > TT. The percentage difference was greatest for CC > TT [S/P: 13%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 7%, 18%; RBC: 16%; 95% CrI: 12%, 20%] followed by CC > CT (S/P: 7%; 95% CrI: 1%, 12%; RBC: 8%; 95% CrI: 4%, 12%) and CT > TT (S/P: 6%; 95% CrI: 1%, 11%; RBC: 9%; 95% CrI: 5%, 13%). S/P folate concentrations measured by using protein-binding assays (PBAs) also showed this pattern but to a greater extent (e.g., CC > TT: 20%; 95% CrI: 17%, 22%). In contrast, RBC folate concentrations measured by using PBAs did not show the same pattern and are presented in the Supplemental Material only. CONCLUSIONS: Meta-analysis results (limited to the MA, the recommended population assessment method) indicated a consistent percentage difference in S/P and RBC folate concentrations across MTHFR C677T genotypes. Lower blood folate concentrations associated with this polymorphism could have implications for a population-level risk of neural tube defects.

Diabetes and congenital heart defects: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and modeling project.

CONTEXT: Maternal pregestational diabetes (PGDM) is a risk factor for development of congenital heart defects (CHDs). Glycemic control before pregnancy reduces the risk of CHDs. A meta-analysis was used to estimate summary ORs and mathematical modeling was used to estimate population attributable fractions (PAFs) and the annual number of CHDs in the U.S. potentially preventable by establishing glycemic control before pregnancy. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: A systematic search of the literature through December 2012 was conducted in 2012 and 2013. Case-control or cohort studies were included. Data were abstracted from 12 studies for a meta-analysis of all CHDs. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Summary estimates of the association between PGDM and CHDs and 95% credible intervals (95% CrIs) were developed using Bayesian random-effects meta-analyses for all CHDs and specific CHD subtypes. Posterior estimates of this association were combined with estimates of CHD prevalence to produce estimates of PAFs and annual prevented cases. Ninety-five percent uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) for estimates of the annual number of preventable cases were developed using Monte Carlo simulation. Analyses were conducted in 2013. The summary OR estimate for the association between PGDM and CHDs was 3.8 (95% CrI=3.0, 4.9). Approximately 2670 (95% UI=1795, 3795) cases of CHDs could potentially be prevented annually if all women in the U.S. with PGDM achieved glycemic control before pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates from this analysis suggest that preconception care of women with PGDM could have a measureable impact by reducing the number of infants born with CHDs.

Current estimate of Down Syndrome population prevalence in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To calculate a reliable estimate of the population prevalence of Down syndrome in the US. STUDY DESIGN: The annual number of births of infants with Down syndrome were estimated by applying published birth prevalence rates of Down syndrome by maternal age to US data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the years for which births by maternal age were available (1940-2008). Death certificate data for persons with Down syndrome were available for the years 1968-2007. We estimated the number of people with Down syndrome on January 1, 2008, using a life table approach based on proportions of deaths by age. Monte Carlo sampling was used to create 90% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates. RESULTS: We estimated the January 1, 2008, population prevalence of Down syndrome as approximately 250700 (90% UI, 185900-321700) based on proportions of deaths by age from the most recent 2 years (2006-2007) of death certificate data. This estimate corresponds to a prevalence of 8.27 people with Down syndrome per 10000 population (90% UI, 6.14-10.62). CONCLUSION: Our estimate of Down syndrome prevalence is roughly 25%-40% lower than estimates based solely on current birth prevalence. The results presented here can be considered a starting point for facilitating policy and services planning for persons with Down syndrome.

Impact of time to maternal interview on interview responses in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study.

Prenatal exposures often are assessed using retrospective interviews. Time from exposure to interview may influence data accuracy. We investigated the association of time to interview (TTI) with aspects of interview responses in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a population-based case-control study of birth defects in 10 US states. Mothers completed a computer-assisted telephone interview 1.5-24 months after their estimated date of delivery. Proxy metrics for interview quality were whether certain exposures were reported, whether the start month of reported medication use or illness was reported, or whether responses were missing. Interaction by case status was assessed. Interviews were completed with 30,542 mothers (22,366 cases and 8,176 controls) who gave birth between 1997 and 2007. Mothers of cases were interviewed later than were mothers of controls (11.7 months vs. 9.5 months, respectively). In adjusted analyses, having a TTI that was greater than 6 months was associated with only a few aspects of interview responses (e.g., start month of pseudoephedrine use). Interaction by case-control status was observed for some exposures; mothers of controls had a greater reduction in interview quality with increased TTI in these instances (e.g., report of morning sickness, start month of acetaminophen use and ibuprofen use). The results suggest that TTI might impact interview responses; however, the impact may be minimal and specific to the type of exposure.

Influencing clinical practice regarding the use of antiepileptic medications during pregnancy: modeling the potential impact on the prevalences of spina bifida and cleft palate in the United States.

Selected antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) increase the risk of birth defects. To assess the impact of influencing AED prescribing practices on spina bifida and cleft palate we searched the literature for estimates of the association between valproic acid or carbamazepine use during pregnancy and these defects and summarized the associations using meta-analyses. We estimated distributions of the prevalence of valproic acid and carbamazepine use among women of childbearing age based on analyses of four data sets. We estimated the attributable fractions and the number of children born with each defect that could be prevented annually in the United States if valproic acid and carbamazepine were not used during pregnancy. The summary odds ratio estimate for the association between valproic acid and spina bifida was 11.9 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4.0-21.2); for valproic acid and cleft palate 5.8 (95% UI: 3.3-9.5); for carbamazepine and spina bifida 3.6 (95% UI: 1.3-7.8); and for carbamazepine and cleft palate 2.4 (95% UI: 1.1-4.5) in the United States. Approximately 40 infants (95% UI: 10-100) with spina bifida and 35 infants (95% UI: 10-70) with cleft palate could be born without these defects each year if valproic acid were not used during pregnancy; 5 infants (95% UI: 0-15) with spina bifida and 5 infants (95% UI: 0-15) with cleft palate could be born without these defects each year if carbamazepine were not used during pregnancy. This modeling approach could be extended to other medications to estimate the impact of translating pharmacoepidemiologic data to evidence-based prenatal care practice.

Potential impact of newborn screening for cystic fibrosis on child survival: a systematic review and analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the population impact of child mortality as a result of cystic fibrosis (CF) potentially preventable by newborn screening. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature review of mortality in children with classic CF without meconium ileus (MI) in screened and unscreened cohorts was extended by contacting investigators for unpublished data. In addition, survival in US states with and without newborn screening (NBS) programs for CF was compared using data from the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR). RESULTS: Among non-US studies, CF-related mortality risk to approximately 10 years of age was lower by 5 to 10 per 100 in screened cohorts. Unpublished US data from a trial of NBS for CF indicate no CF-related deaths to 10 years of age in either cohort. CFFPR data suggest improved survival among children with CF born in US states with NBS, with a CF-related mortality difference to 10 years of age between the screened and unscreened groups between 1.5 and 2 per 100 children with CF without MI. CONCLUSION: In addition to improving nutritional outcomes, newborn screening for CF may result in improved child survival. The absolute differential in mortality risk, although modest in size, appears comparable to NBS for certain other genetic disorders.

The impact of inaccurate reporting of condom use and imperfect diagnosis of sexually transmitted disease infection in studies of condom effectiveness: a simulation-based assessment.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The effectiveness of condoms in reducing sexually transmitted disease (STD) infection risk has been debated in the face of equivocal epidemiologic evidence. We assessed the potential magnitude of bias in condom effectiveness studies resulting from inaccurate reporting of condom use behavior and misdiagnosis of STD infection status. GOAL: The goal of this study was to illustrate the magnitude of bias in condom effectiveness studies in the presence of inaccurate condom use reporting and diagnostic misclassification. STUDY: We used probabilistic simulations to mimic plausible outcomes for hypothetical prospective and retrospective condom effectiveness studies subject to both inaccurate reporting of the participants' true condom use and diagnostic error. The simulations were conducted by generating a series of binomial (yes, no) random variables corresponding with STD infection status and accurate diagnosis of infection. RESULTS: The simulation results illustrate that failure to address reporting and diagnostic errors can lead to a substantial bias in studies of condom effectiveness. This bias resulted in a roughly 25% to 30% reduction in the probability of detecting a true 2-fold reduction of infection risk resulting from using condoms. CONCLUSION: Inaccurate reporting of condom use and reliance on imperfect diagnostic tests can substantially bias observable measures of condom effectiveness. The potential for these biases should be addressed in the design and analysis of effectiveness studies.

Screening tests to detect Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections--2002.

Since publication of CDC's 1993 guidelines (CDC, Recommendations for the prevention and management of Chlamydia trachomatis infections, 1993. MMWR 1993;42[No. RR-12]:1-39), nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) have been introduced as critical new tools to diagnose and treat C. trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections. NAATs for C. trachomatis are substantially more sensitive than previous tests. When using a NAAT, any sacrifice in performance when urine is substituted for a traditional swab specimen is limited, thus reducing dependence on invasive procedures and expanding the venues where specimens can be obtained. NAATs can also detect both C. trachomatis and N. gonorrhoeae organisms in the same specimen. However, NAATs are usually more expensive than previous tests, making test performance from an economic perspective a key consideration. This report updates the 1993 guidelines for selecting laboratory tests for C. trachomatis with an emphasis on screening men and women in the United States. (In this report, screening refers to testing persons in the absence of symptoms or signs indicating C. trachomatis or N. gonorrhoeae infection.) In addition, these guidelines consider tests from an economic perspective and expand the previous guidelines to address detection of N. gonorrhoeae as well as C. trachomatis infections. Because of the increased cost of NAATs, certain laboratories are modifying manufacturers' procedures to improve test sensitivity without incurring the full cost associated with screening with a NAAT. Such approaches addressed in these guidelines are pooling of specimens before testing with a NAAT and additional testing of specimens whose non-NAAT test result is within a gray zone. This report also addresses the need for additional testing after a positive screening test to improve the specificity of a final diagnosis. To prepare these guidelines, CDC staff identified pertinent concerns, compiled the related literature published during 1990 or later, prepared tables of evidence, and drafted recommendations. Consultants, selected for their expertise or disciplinary and organizational affiliations, reviewed the draft recommendations. These final guidelines are the recommendations of CDC staff who considered contributions from scientific consultants. These guidelines are intended for laboratorians, clinicians, and managers who must choose among the multiple available tests, establish standard operating procedures for collecting and processing specimens, interpret test results for laboratory reporting, and counsel and treat patients.