Analysis, design, and maintenance of isolation valves in water distribution networks: State of the art review, insights from field experiences and future directions.

Isolation valves play a primary role in water distribution networks as their operation enables isolating the part of the network undergoing planned or extraordinary maintenance, in the context of rehabilitation or pipe break repairs, respectively. This paper presents a review of the current state of the art of isolation valves, with a focus on the problems of analysis, e.g., assessment of the performance of the network in segment isolation scenarios, design of optimal valve locations, and selection criteria/methods for identification of the valves to maintain. After describing and classifying the main scientific contributions, the paper proceeds by reporting the results of a survey to water utility staff in the United States, Italy, Portugal, and Iran, aimed at analysing the current practices adopted for the positioning and maintenance of isolation valves in real case studies. The paper ends with a discussion on the analysis of scientific literature and results of on-field surveys, highlighting critical points for potential future developments, including the connection between the design and maintenance of isolation valves, the trade-off between increasing validity and reducing complexity of reliability assessment methods, and more precise modeling of isolation valves systems.

An optimized NARX-based model for predicting thermal dynamics and heatwaves in rivers.

The thermal dynamics within river ecosystems represent critical areas of study due to their profound impact on overall aquatic health. With the rising prevalence of heatwaves in rivers, a consequence of climate change, it is imperative to deepen our understanding through comprehensive research efforts. Despite this urgency, there remains a noticeable dearth in studies aimed at refining modeling techniques to precisely characterize the duration and intensity of these events. In response to this gap, the present study endeavors to augment the NARX-based model (Nonlinear Autoregressive network with Exogenous Inputs) to enhance predictive capabilities regarding thermal dynamics and river heatwaves. The optimized NARX-based model included the Bayesian Optimization (BO) algorithm, which allows fine-tuning the number of NARX hidden nodes and lagged input/target values, and the Bayesian Regularization (BR) backpropagation algorithm to improve the NARX calibration process. A long-term dataset spanning from 1991 to 2021, encompassing 18 rivers across the expansive Vistula River Basin, one of Europe's largest river systems, was employed for this study. The performance of the BO-NARX-BR model was compared with that of the widely utilized air2stream model for modeling river water temperature (RWT). The results unequivocally demonstrated the superior performance of the NARX-based model across the calibration and validation periods, and four heatwave years. In the context of river heatwaves, the study revealed an escalating frequency and intensity within the Vistula River Basin. Furthermore, the NARX-based model exhibited superior proficiency in characterizing river heatwaves compared to the air2stream model. This study, as the inaugural examination of river heatwaves in Poland and one of the few globally, furnishes crucial reference points for subsequent research endeavors on this phenomenon.

A novel optimized model based on NARX networks for predicting thermal anomalies in Polish lakes during heatwaves, with special reference to the 2018 heatwave.

In 2018, Europe experienced one of the most severe heatwaves ever recorded. This extreme event's impact on lake surface water temperature (LSWT) in Polish lakes has largely remained unknown. In this study, the impact of the 2018 European heatwave on LSWT in 24 Polish lakes was investigated based on a long-term observed dataset (1987-2020). To capture the LSWT dynamics during the heatwave period and reproduce lake heatwaves, a novel BO-NARX-BR model was developed and evaluated. This model combines the capabilities of the Nonlinear Autoregressive network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) neural network, the Bayesian Optimization (BO) algorithm for optimizing the number of NARX hidden nodes and lagged input/target values, and the Bayesian Regularization (BR) backpropagation algorithm for the NARX training. The results showed that from April to October 2018, the mean and maximum LSWTs were 2.35 and 3.38 °C warmer than the base-period average (1987-2010) due to the impact of the extreme heatwave. The NARX-based model outperformed another widely used model called air2water in calibration and validation periods. The results also revealed that the BO-NARX-BR model produced significantly better results in capturing lake heatwaves, with computed duration and intensity of lake heatwaves close to the in-situ data. Additionally, LSWT anomaly significantly impacted the duration and intensity of heatwaves that occurred in lakes. Extreme climatic events are gaining increasing importance for the functioning of various elements of the hydrosphere. Such a situation encourages the search for more accurate methods and tools for their prediction. The model applied in the paper corresponds with these assumptions, and its good performance allows for its adaptation to lakes in other regions.

A stacked machine learning model for multi-step ahead prediction of lake surface water temperature.

Lake surface water temperature is one of the most important physical and ecological indices of lakes, which has frequently been used as the indicator to evaluate the impact of climate change on lakes. Knowing the dynamics of lake surface water temperature is thus of great significance. The past decades have witnessed the development of different modeling tools to forecast lake surface water temperature, yet, simple models with fewer input variables, while maintaining high forecasting accuracy are scarce. Impact of forecast horizons on model performance has seldom been investigated. To fill the gap, in this study, a novel machine learning algorithm by stacking multilayer perceptron and random forest (MLP-RF) was employed to forecast daily lake surface water temperature using daily air temperature as the exogenous input variable, with the Bayesian Optimization procedure applied for tuning the hyperparameters. Prediction models were developed using long-term observed data from eight Polish lakes. The MLP-RF stacked model showed very good forecasting capabilities for all lakes and forecast horizons, far better than shallow multilayer perceptron neural network, a model coupling wavelet transform and multilayer perceptron neural network, non-linear regression and air2water models. A reduction in model performance was observed as the forecast horizon increased. However, the model also performs well with a forecast horizon of several days (e.g., 7 days ahead, testing stage: R2 - [0.932, 0.990], RMSE °C - [0.77, 1.83], MAE °C - [0.55, 1.38]). In addition, the MLP-RF stacked model has proven to be reliable for both intermediate temperatures and minimum and maximum peaks. The model proposed in this study will be useful to the scientific community in predicting lake surface water temperature, thus contributing to studies on such sensitive aquatic ecosystems as lakes.

Short-term forecasts of streamflow in the UK based on a novel hybrid artificial intelligence algorithm.

In recent years, the growing impact of climate change on surface water bodies has made the analysis and forecasting of streamflow rates essential for proper planning and management of water resources. This study proposes a novel ensemble (or hybrid) model, based on the combination of a Deep Learning algorithm, the Nonlinear AutoRegressive network with eXogenous inputs, and two Machine Learning algorithms, Multilayer Perceptron and Random Forest, for the short-term streamflow forecasting, considering precipitation as the only exogenous input and a forecast horizon up to 7 days. A large regional study was performed, considering 18 watercourses throughout the United Kingdom, characterized by different catchment areas and flow regimes. In particular, the predictions obtained with the ensemble Machine Learning-Deep Learning model were compared with the ones achieved with simpler models based on an ensemble of both Machine Learning algorithms and on the only Deep Learning algorithm. The hybrid Machine Learning-Deep Learning model outperformed the simpler models, with values of R2 above 0.9 for several watercourses, with the greatest discrepancies for small basins, where high and non-uniform rainfall throughout the year makes the streamflow rate forecasting a challenging task. Furthermore, the hybrid Machine Learning-Deep Learning model has been shown to be less affected by reductions in performance as the forecasting horizon increases compared to the simpler models, leading to reliable predictions even for 7-day forecasts.

A nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) model to predict nitrate concentration in rivers.

Forecasting nitrate concentration in rivers is essential for environmental protection and careful treatment of drinking water. This study shows that nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs neural networks can provide accurate models to predict nitrate plus nitrite concentrations in waterways. The Susquehanna River and the Raccoon River, USA, were chosen as case studies. Water discharge, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and specific conductance were considered exogenous inputs. The forecasting sensitivity to changes in the exogenous input parameters and time series length was also assessed. For Kreutz Creek at Strickler station (Pennsylvania), the prediction accuracy increased with the number of exogenous input variables, with the best performance achieved considering all the variables (R2 = 0.77). The predictions were accurate also for the Raccoon River (Iowa), although only the water discharge was considered exogenous input (South Raccoon River at Redfield-R2 = 0.94). Both short- and long-term predictions were satisfactory.

Prediction of spring flows using nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) neural network models.

In the Mediterranean area, climate changes have led to long and frequent droughts with a drop in groundwater resources. An accurate prediction of the spring discharge is an essential task for the proper management of the groundwater resources and for the sustainable development of large areas of the Mediterranean basin. This study shows an unprecedented application of non-linear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) neural networks to the prediction of spring flows. In particular, discharge prediction models were developed for 9 monitored springs located in the Umbria region, along the carbonate ridge of the Umbria-Marche Apennines. In the modeling, the precipitation was also considered as an exogenous input parameter. Good performances were achieved for all the springs and for both short-term and long-term predictions, passing from a lag time equal to 1 month (R2 = 0.9012-0.9842, RAE = 0.0933-0.2557) to 12 months (R2 = 0.9005-0.9838, RAE = 0.0963-0.2409). The forecasting sensitivity to changes in the temporal resolution, passing from weekly to monthly, was also assessed. The good results achieved recommend the use of the NARX network for spring discharge prediction in other areas characterized by karst aquifers.

Groundwater level prediction in Apulia region (Southern Italy) using NARX neural network.

In the Mediterranean area, the high water demand frequently leads to an excessive exploitation of the water resource, which involves a qualitative degradation of the freshwaters stored in coastal karst aquifers, as a result of phenomena such as sea saltwater intrusion. In this study, the NARX network was used to predict the daily groundwater level fluctuation for 76 monitored wells located on the Apulian territory. A preliminary analysis on reference wells was performed in order to assess the impact on the groundwater level prediction of two input parameters, rainfall and evapotranspiration, and the sensitivity to changes of training algorithm and input time delay. Based on the findings of the preliminary analysis, a comprehensive regional analysis and extensive sub-regional analyses were performed, proving the reliability of the NARX-BR network for the groundwater level prediction in wells located on different hydrogeological structures. The accurate results obtained for the Apulia region suggest the NARX network application for groundwater level prediction in other areas affected by groundwater resource management issues.