Predator control of marine communities increases with temperature across 115 degrees of latitude.

Early naturalists suggested that predation intensity increases toward the tropics, affecting fundamental ecological and evolutionary processes by latitude, but empirical support is still limited. Several studies have measured consumption rates across latitude at large scales, with variable results. Moreover, how predation affects prey community composition at such geographic scales remains unknown. Using standardized experiments that spanned 115° of latitude, at 36 nearshore sites along both coasts of the Americas, we found that marine predators have both higher consumption rates and consistently stronger impacts on biomass and species composition of marine invertebrate communities in warmer tropical waters, likely owing to fish predators. Our results provide robust support for a temperature-dependent gradient in interaction strength and have potential implications for how marine ecosystems will respond to ocean warming.

Modeling demersal fish and benthic invertebrate assemblages in support of marine conservation planning.

Marine classification schemes based on abiotic surrogates often inform regional marine conservation planning in lieu of detailed biological data. However, these schemes may poorly represent ecologically relevant biological patterns required for effective design and management strategies. We used a community-level modeling approach to characterize and delineate representative mesoscale (tens to thousands of kilometers) assemblages of demersal fish and benthic invertebrates in the Northwest Atlantic. Hierarchical clustering of species occurrence data from four regional annual multispecies trawl surveys revealed three to six groupings (predominant assemblage types) in each survey region, broadly associated with geomorphic and oceanographic features. Indicator analyses identified 3-34 emblematic taxa of each assemblage type. Random forest classifications accurately predicted assemblage distributions from environmental covariates (AUC > 0.95) and identified thermal limits (annual minimum and maximum bottom temperatures) as important predictors of distribution in each region. Using forecasted oceanographic conditions for the year 2075 and a regional classification model, we projected assemblage distributions in the southernmost bioregion (Scotian Shelf-Bay of Fundy) under a high emissions climate scenario (RCP 8.5). Range expansions to the northeast are projected for assemblages associated with warmer and shallower waters of the Western Scotian Shelf over the 21st century as thermal habitat on the relatively cooler Eastern Scotian Shelf becomes more favorable. Community-level modeling provides a biotic-informed approach for identifying broadscale ecological structure required for the design and management of ecologically coherent, representative, well-connected networks of Marine Protected Areas. When combined with oceanographic forecasts, this modeling approach provides a spatial tool for assessing sensitivity and resilience to climate change, which can improve conservation planning, monitoring, and adaptive management.

Fine-scale temperature-associated genetic structure between inshore and offshore populations of sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus).

In the northwest Atlantic Ocean, sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) has been characterized by a latitudinal genetic cline with a breakpoint between northern and southern genetic clusters occurring at ~45°N along eastern Nova Scotia, Canada. Using 96 diagnostic single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) capable of discriminating between northern and southern clusters, we examined fine-scale genetic structure of scallops among 27 sample locations, spanning the largest geographic range evaluated in this species to date (~37-51°N). Here, we confirmed previous observations of northern and southern groups, but we show that the boundary between northern and southern clusters is not a discrete latitudinal break. Instead, at latitudes near the previously described boundary, we found unexpected patterns of fine-scale genetic structure occurring between inshore and offshore sites. Scallops from offshore sites, including St. Pierre Bank and the eastern Scotian Shelf, clustered with southern stocks, whereas inshore sites at similar latitudes clustered with northern stocks. Our analyses revealed significant genetic divergence across small spatial scales (i.e., 129-221 km distances), and that spatial structure over large and fine scales was strongly associated with temperature during seasonal periods of thermal minima. Clear temperature differences between inshore and offshore locations may explain the fine-scale structuring observed, such as why southern lineages of scallop occur at higher latitudes in deeper, warmer offshore waters. Our study supports growing evidence that fine-scale population structure in marine species is common, often environmentally associated, and that consideration of environmental and genomic data can significantly enhance the identification of marine diversity and management units.

Temporal dynamics of genetic clines of invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas) in eastern North America.

Two genetically distinct lineages of European green crabs (Carcinus maenas) were independently introduced to eastern North America, the first in the early 19th century and the second in the late 20th century. These lineages first came into secondary contact in southeastern Nova Scotia, Canada (NS), where they hybridized, producing latitudinal genetic clines. Previous studies have documented a persistent southward shift in the clines of different marker types, consistent with existing dispersal and recruitment pathways. We evaluated current clinal structure by quantifying the distribution of lineages and fine-scale hybridization patterns across the eastern North American range (25 locations, ~39 to 49°N) using informative single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; n = 96). In addition, temporal changes in the genetic clines were evaluated using mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite loci (n = 9-11) over a 15-year period (2000-2015). Clinal structure was consistent with prior work demonstrating the existence of both northern and southern lineages with a hybrid zone occurring between southern New Brunswick (NB) and southern NS. Extensive later generation hybrids were detected in this region and in southeastern Newfoundland. Temporal genetic analysis confirmed the southward progression of clines over time; however, the rate of this progression was slower than predicted by forecasting models, and current clines for all marker types deviated significantly from these predictions. Our results suggest that neutral and selective processes contribute to cline dynamics, and ultimately, highlight how selection, hybridization, and dispersal can collectively influence invasion success.

Genomewide evidence of environmentally mediated secondary contact of European green crab (Carcinus maenas) lineages in eastern North America.

Genetic-environment associations are increasingly revealed through population genomic data and can occur through a number of processes, including secondary contact, divergent natural selection, or isolation by distance. Here, we investigate the influence of the environment, including seasonal temperature and salinity, on the population structure of the invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas) in eastern North America. Green crab populations in eastern North America are associated with two independent invasions, previously shown to consist of distinct northern and southern ecotypes, with a contact zone in southern Nova Scotia, Canada. Using a RAD-seq panel of 9,137 genomewide SNPs, we detected 41 SNPs (0.49%) whose allele frequencies were highly correlated with environmental data. A principal components analysis of 25 environmental variables differentiated populations into northern, southern, and admixed sites in concordance with the observed genomic spatial structure. Furthermore, a spatial principal components analysis conducted on genomic and geographic data revealed a high degree of global structure (p < .0001) partitioning a northern and southern ecotype. Redundancy and partial redundancy analyses revealed that among the environmental variables tested, winter sea surface temperature had the strongest association with spatial structuring, suggesting that it is an important factor defining range and expansion limits of each ecotype. Understanding environmental thresholds associated with intraspecific diversity will facilitate the ability to manage current and predict future distributions of this aquatic invasive species.

Oceanographic variation influences spatial genomic structure in the sea scallop, Placopecten magellanicus.

Environmental factors can influence diversity and population structure in marine species and accurate understanding of this influence can both improve fisheries management and help predict responses to environmental change. We used 7163 SNPs derived from restriction site-associated DNA sequencing genotyped in 245 individuals of the economically important sea scallop, Placopecten magellanicus, to evaluate the correlations between oceanographic variation and a previously identified latitudinal genomic cline. Sea scallops span a broad latitudinal area (>10 degrees), and we hypothesized that climatic variation significantly drives clinal trends in allele frequency. Using a large environmental dataset, including temperature, salinity, chlorophyll a, and nutrient concentrations, we identified a suite of SNPs (285-621, depending on analysis and environmental dataset) potentially under selection through correlations with environmental variation. Principal components analysis of different outlier SNPs and environmental datasets revealed similar northern and southern clusters, with significant associations between the first axes of each (R2adj = .66-.79). Multivariate redundancy analysis of outlier SNPs and the environmental principal components indicated that environmental factors explained more than 32% of the variance. Similarly, multiple linear regressions and random-forest analysis identified winter average and minimum ocean temperatures as significant parameters in the link between genetic and environmental variation. This work indicates that oceanographic variation is associated with the observed genomic cline in this species and that seasonal periods of extreme cold may restrict gene flow along a latitudinal gradient in this marine benthic bivalve. Incorporating this finding into management may improve accuracy of management strategies and future predictions.

A climate-associated multispecies cryptic cline in the northwest Atlantic.

The spatial genetic structure of most species in the open marine environment remains largely unresolved. This information gap creates uncertainty in the sustainable management, recovery, and associated resilience of marine communities and our capacity to extrapolate beyond the few species for which such information exists. We document a previously unidentified multispecies biogeographic break aligned with a steep climatic gradient and driven by seasonal temperature minima in the northwest Atlantic. The coherence of this genetic break across our five study species with contrasting life histories suggests a pervasive macroecological phenomenon. The integration of this genetic structure with habitat suitability models and climate forecasts predicts significant variation in northward distributional shifts among populations and availability of suitable habitat in future oceans. The results of our integrated approach provide new perspective on how cryptic intraspecific diversity associated with climatic variation influences species and community response to climate change beyond simple poleward shifts.

RAD sequencing reveals genomewide divergence between independent invasions of the European green crab (Carcinus maenas) in the Northwest Atlantic.

Genomic studies of invasive species can reveal both invasive pathways and functional differences underpinning patterns of colonization success. The European green crab (Carcinus maenas) was initially introduced to eastern North America nearly 200 years ago where it expanded northwards to eastern Nova Scotia. A subsequent invasion to Nova Scotia from a northern European source allowed further range expansion, providing a unique opportunity to study the invasion genomics of a species with multiple invasions. Here, we use restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing-derived SNPs to explore fine-scale genomewide differentiation between these two invasions. We identified 9137 loci from green crab sampled from 11 locations along eastern North America and compared spatial variation to mitochondrial COI sequence variation used previously to characterize these invasions. Overall spatial divergence among invasions was high (pairwise FST ~0.001 to 0.15) and spread across many loci, with a mean FST ~0.052 and 52% of loci examined characterized by FST values >0.05. The majority of the most divergent loci (i.e., outliers, ~1.2%) displayed latitudinal clines in allele frequency highlighting extensive genomic divergence among the invasions. Discriminant analysis of principal components (both neutral and outlier loci) clearly resolved the two invasions spatially and was highly correlated with mitochondrial divergence. Our results reveal extensive cryptic intraspecific genomic diversity associated with differing patterns of colonization success and demonstrates clear utility for genomic approaches to delineating the distribution and colonization success of aquatic invasive species.

Identifying patterns of dispersal, connectivity and selection in the sea scallop, Placopecten magellanicus, using RADseq-derived SNPs.

Understanding patterns of dispersal and connectivity among marine populations can directly inform fisheries conservation and management. Advances in high-throughput sequencing offer new opportunities for estimating marine connectivity. We used restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing to examine dispersal and realized connectivity in the sea scallop Placopecten magellanicus, an economically important marine bivalve. Based on 245 individuals sampled rangewide at 12 locations from Newfoundland to the Mid-Atlantic Bight, we identified and genotyped 7163 single nucleotide polymorphisms; 112 (1.6%) were identified as outliers potentially under directional selection. Bayesian clustering revealed a discontinuity between northern and southern samples, and latitudinal clines in allele frequencies were observed in 42.9% of the outlier loci and in 24.6% of neutral loci. Dispersal estimates derived using these clines and estimates of linkage disequilibrium imply limited dispersal; 373.1 ± 407.0 km (mean ± SD) for outlier loci and 641.0 ± 544.6 km (mean ± SD) for neutral loci. Our analysis suggests restricted dispersal compared to the species range (>2000 km) and that dispersal and effective connectivity differ. These observations support the hypothesis that limited effective dispersal structures scallop populations along eastern North America. These findings can help refine the appropriate scale of management and conservation in this commercially valuable species.

genepopedit: a simple and flexible tool for manipulating multilocus molecular data in R.

Advances in genetic sequencing technologies and techniques have made large, genome-wide data sets comprised of hundreds or even thousands of individuals and loci the norm rather than the exception even for nonmodel organisms. While such data present new opportunities for evaluating population structure and demographic processes, the large size of these genomic data sets brings new computational challenges for researchers needing to parse, convert and manipulate data often into a variety of software-specific formats required of genomic analyses. We developed genepopedit as a flexible tool for the manipulation of multilocus molecular data sets. Functionality can be divided among diagnostic-, manipulation-, sampling-, simulation-, and transformation-based tools. Metadata from large genomic data sets can be efficiently extracted, without the need to view data in a text-editing program. genepopedit provides tools to manipulate loci, individual samples and populations included in genomic data sets, in addition to the ability to convert directly to a variety of software formats. Functions are compiled as an R package, which can integrate into existing analysis workflows. Importantly, genepopedit provides a simple yet robust code-based tool for repeatable genomic data manipulation, which has been proven to be stable for data sets in excess of 200 000 SNPs. The latest version of the package and associated documentation are available on Github (github.com/rystanley/genepopedit).

What controls connectivity? An empirical, multi-species approach.

The exchange of individuals among habitat patches (connectivity) has broad relevance for the conservation and management of marine metapopulations. Elemental fingerprinting-based research conducted over the past 12 years along the open coastline and bays of San Diego County in southern California evaluated connectivity patterns for seven species: one native and two invasive mussels, an oyster, a brachyuran crab, and two fishes. The studies spanned different years and seasons but overlapped considerably in space, allowing comparisons of dispersal patterns across species, and assessment of the relative importance of location, circulation, and intra-annual and inter-annual variability. We asked whether the species exhibited commonalities in directional transport, transport distances, sources and sinks, self-recruitment, and bay-ocean exchange. Linked connectivity-demographic analyses conducted for two species of mytilid mussels and two fishes allowed evaluation of the contributions of realized connectivity to metapopulation dynamics relative to other life-history attributes. Common trends across species include average along-shore dispersal distances of 15-35 km and seasonal changes in direction of dispersal that mirrored patterns of along-shore circulation. We observed greater isolation of back-bay populations, significant exchange from front bay to ocean, and high self-recruitment in locations on the northern, open coast, and in the southern bays. Connectivity was rarely the most influential driver of growth and persistence of metapopulations, but influenced the importance of other vital rates. Several locations served consistently as sources of larvae or as nurseries for multiple species, but there were few sites in common that were sinks. For the mussels, reproductive timing guided directional transport. These results imply that local management (e.g., habitat protection, opening of the mouths of lagoons, location of aquaculture farms) may be effective along this coastline. Regional, multi-species assessments of exchange of larvae should move us closer to ecosystem-based management.

Relationship between propagule pressure and colonization pressure in invasion ecology: a test with ships' ballast.

Increasing empirical evidence indicates the number of released individuals (i.e. propagule pressure) and number of released species (i.e. colonization pressure) are key determinants of the number of species that successfully invade new habitats. In view of these relationships, and the possibility that ships transport whole communities of organisms, we collected 333 ballast water and sediment samples to investigate the relationship between propagule and colonization pressure for a variety of diverse taxonomic groups (diatoms, dinoflagellates and invertebrates). We also reviewed the scientific literature to compare the number of species transported by ships to those reported in nature. Here, we show that even though ships transport nearly entire local communities, a strong relationship between propagule and colonization pressure exists only for dinoflagellates. Our study provides evidence that colonization pressure of invertebrates and diatoms may fluctuate widely irrespective of propagule pressure. We suggest that the lack of correspondence is explained by reduced uptake of invertebrates into the transport vector and the sensitivity of invertebrates and diatoms to selective pressures during transportation. Selection during transportation is initially evident through decreases in propagule pressure, followed by decreased colonization pressure in the most sensitive taxa.