Altered Perception of Environmental Volatility During Social Learning in Emerging Psychosis.

Paranoid delusions or unfounded beliefs that others intend to deliberately cause harm are a frequent and burdensome symptom in early psychosis, but their emergence and consolidation still remains opaque. Recent theories suggest that overly precise prediction errors lead to an unstable model of the world providing a breeding ground for delusions. Here, we employ a Bayesian approach to test for such an unstable model of the world and investigate the computational mechanisms underlying emerging paranoia. We modelled behaviour of 18 first-episode psychosis patients (FEP), 19 individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P), and 19 healthy controls (HC) during an advice-taking task designed to probe learning about others' changing intentions. We formulated competing hypotheses comparing the standard Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF), a Bayesian belief updating scheme, with a mean-reverting HGF to model an altered perception of volatility. There was a significant group-by-volatility interaction on advice-taking suggesting that CHR-P and FEP displayed reduced adaptability to environmental volatility. Model comparison favored the standard HGF in HC, but the mean-reverting HGF in CHR-P and FEP in line with perceiving increased volatility, although model attributions in CHR-P were heterogeneous. We observed correlations between perceiving increased volatility and positive symptoms generally as well as with frequency of paranoid delusions specifically. Our results suggest that FEP are characterised by a different computational mechanism - perceiving the environment as increasingly volatile - in line with Bayesian accounts of psychosis. This approach may prove useful to investigate heterogeneity in CHR-P and identify vulnerability for transition to psychosis.

Rethinking interpersonal judgments: dopamine antagonists impact attributional dynamics.

Barnby et al. investigated the effects of haloperidol, a D2/D3 dopamine antagonist, on social attributions. Using computational modeling, they demonstrate that haloperidol increases belief flexibility, reducing paranoia-like interpretations by enhancing sensitivity to social context and reducing self-relevant perspective taking, offering a mechanistic explanation for its therapeutic potential in schizophrenia.

Neuroimaging and Biosample Collection in the Toronto Adolescent and Youth Cohort Study: Rationale, Methods, and Early Data.

BACKGROUND: The Toronto Adolescent and Youth (TAY) Cohort Study will characterize the neurobiological trajectories of psychosis spectrum symptoms, functioning, and suicidality (i.e., suicidal thoughts and behaviors) in youth seeking mental health care. Here, we present the neuroimaging and biosample component of the protocol. We also present feasibility and quality control metrics for the baseline sample collected thus far. METHODS: The current study includes youths (ages 11-24 years) who were referred to child and youth mental health services within a large tertiary care center in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, with target recruitment of 1500 participants. Participants were offered the opportunity to provide any or all of the following: 1) 1-hour magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan (electroencephalography if ineligible for or declined MRI), 2) blood sample for genomic and proteomic data (or saliva if blood collection was declined or not feasible) and urine sample, and 3) heart rate recording to assess respiratory sinus arrhythmia. RESULTS: Of the first 417 participants who consented to participate between May 4, 2021, and February 2, 2023, 412 agreed to participate in the imaging and biosample protocol. Of these, 334 completed imaging, 341 provided a biosample, 338 completed respiratory sinus arrhythmia, and 316 completed all 3. Following quality control, data usability was high (MRI: T1-weighted 99%, diffusion-weighted imaging 99%, arterial spin labeling 90%, resting-state functional MRI 95%, task functional MRI 90%; electroencephalography: 83%; respiratory sinus arrhythmia: 99%). CONCLUSIONS: The high consent rates, good completion rates, and high data usability reported here demonstrate the feasibility of collecting and using brain imaging and biosamples in a large clinical cohort of youths seeking mental health care.

Cognition and Educational Achievement in the Toronto Adolescent and Youth Cohort Study: Rationale, Methods, and Early Data.

BACKGROUND: Both cognition and educational achievement in youths are linked to psychosis risk. One major aim of the Toronto Adolescent and Youth (TAY) Cohort Study is to characterize how cognitive and educational achievement trajectories inform the course of psychosis spectrum symptoms (PSSs), functioning, and suicidality. Here, we describe the protocol for the cognitive and educational data and early baseline data. METHODS: The cognitive assessment design is consistent with youth population cohort studies, including the NIH Toolbox, Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test, Wechsler Matrix Reasoning Task, and Little Man Task. Participants complete an educational achievement questionnaire, and report cards are requested. Completion rates, descriptive data, and differences across PSS status are reported for the first participants (N = 417) ages 11 to 24 years, who were recruited between May 4, 2021, and February 2, 2023. RESULTS: Nearly 84% of the sample completed cognitive testing, and 88.2% completed the educational questionnaire, whereas report cards were collected for only 40.3%. Modifications to workflows were implemented to improve data collection. Participants who met criteria for PSSs demonstrated lower performance than those who did not on numerous key cognitive indices (p < .05) and also had more academic/educational problems. CONCLUSIONS: Following youths longitudinally enabled trajectory mapping and prediction based on cognitive and educational performance in relation to PSSs in treatment-seeking youths. Youths with PSSs had lower cognitive performance and worse educational outcomes than youths without PSSs. Results show the feasibility of collecting data on cognitive and educational outcomes in a cohort of youths seeking treatment related to mental illness and substance use.

Aberrant Hierarchical Prediction Errors Are Associated With Transition to Psychosis: A Computational Single-Trial Analysis of the Mismatch Negativity.

BACKGROUND: Mismatch negativity reductions are among the most reliable biomarkers for schizophrenia and have been associated with increased risk for conversion to psychosis in individuals who are at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P). Here, we adopted a computational approach to develop a mechanistic model of mismatch negativity reductions in CHR-P individuals and patients early in the course of schizophrenia. METHODS: Electroencephalography was recorded in 38 CHR-P individuals (15 converters), 19 patients early in the course of schizophrenia (≤5 years), and 44 healthy control participants during three different auditory oddball mismatch negativity paradigms including 10% duration, frequency, or double deviants, respectively. We modeled sensory learning with the hierarchical Gaussian filter and extracted precision-weighted prediction error trajectories from the model to assess how the expression of hierarchical prediction errors modulated electroencephalography amplitudes over sensor space and time. RESULTS: Both low-level sensory and high-level volatility precision-weighted prediction errors were altered in CHR-P individuals and patients early in the course of schizophrenia compared with healthy control participants. Moreover, low-level precision-weighted prediction errors were significantly different in CHR-P individuals who later converted to psychosis compared with nonconverters. CONCLUSIONS: Our results implicate altered processing of hierarchical prediction errors as a computational mechanism in early psychosis consistent with predictive coding accounts of psychosis. This computational model seems to capture pathophysiological mechanisms that are relevant to early psychosis and the risk for future psychosis in CHR-P individuals and may serve as predictive biomarkers and mechanistic targets for the development of novel treatments.

Functional connectivity and glutamate levels of the medial prefrontal cortex in schizotypy are related to sensory amplification in a probabilistic reasoning task.

The circular inference (CI) computational model assumes a corruption of sensory data by prior information and vice versa, leading at the extremes to 'see what we expect' (through prior amplification) and/or to 'expect what we see' (through sensory amplification). Although a CI mechanism has been reported in a schizophrenia population, it has not been investigated in individuals experiencing psychosis-like experiences, such as people with high schizotypy traits. Furthermore, the neurobiological basis of CI, such as the link between hierarchical amplifications, excitatory neurotransmission, and resting state functional connectivity (RSFC), remains untested. The participants included in the present study consisted of a subsample of those recruited in a study previously published by our group, Kozhuharova et al. (2021b). We included 36 participants with High (n=18) and Low (n=18) levels of schizotypy who completed a probabilistic reasoning task (the Fisher task) for which individual confidence levels were obtained and fitted to the CI model. Participants also underwent a 1H-Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) scan to measure medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) glutamate metabolite levels, and a functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) scan to measure RSFC of the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). People with high levels of schizotypy exhibited changes in CI parameters, altered cortical excitatory neurotransmission and RSFC that were all associated with sensory amplification. Our findings capture a multimodal signature of CI that is observable in people early in the psychosis spectrum.

Suicide prevention and ketamine: insights from computational modeling.

Suicide is a pressing public health issue, with over 700,000 individuals dying each year. Ketamine has emerged as a promising treatment for suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs), yet the complex mechanisms underlying ketamine's anti-suicidal effect are not fully understood. Computational psychiatry provides a promising framework for exploring the dynamic interactions underlying suicidality and ketamine's therapeutic action, offering insight into potential biomarkers, treatment targets, and the underlying mechanisms of both. This paper provides an overview of current computational theories of suicidality and ketamine's mechanism of action, and discusses various computational modeling approaches that attempt to explain ketamine's anti-suicidal effect. More specifically, the therapeutic potential of ketamine is explored in the context of the mismatch negativity and the predictive coding framework, by considering neurocircuits involved in learning and decision-making, and investigating altered connectivity strengths and receptor densities targeted by ketamine. Theory-driven computational models offer a promising approach to integrate existing knowledge of suicidality and ketamine, and for the extraction of model-derived mechanistic parameters that can be used to identify patient subgroups and personalized treatment approaches. Future computational studies on ketamine's mechanism of action should optimize task design and modeling approaches to ensure parameter reliability, and external factors such as set and setting, as well as psychedelic-assisted therapy should be evaluated for their additional therapeutic value.

The effect of lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) on whole-brain functional and effective connectivity.

Psychedelics have emerged as promising candidate treatments for various psychiatric conditions, and given their clinical potential, there is a need to identify biomarkers that underlie their effects. Here, we investigate the neural mechanisms of lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) using regression dynamic causal modelling (rDCM), a novel technique that assesses whole-brain effective connectivity (EC) during resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We modelled data from two randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind, cross-over trials, in which 45 participants were administered 100 µg LSD and placebo in two resting-state fMRI sessions. We compared EC against whole-brain functional connectivity (FC) using classical statistics and machine learning methods. Multivariate analyses of EC parameters revealed predominantly stronger interregional connectivity and reduced self-inhibition under LSD compared to placebo, with the notable exception of weakened interregional connectivity and increased self-inhibition in occipital brain regions as well as subcortical regions. Together, these findings suggests that LSD perturbs the Excitation/Inhibition balance of the brain. Notably, whole-brain EC did not only provide additional mechanistic insight into the effects of LSD on the Excitation/Inhibition balance of the brain, but EC also correlated with global subjective effects of LSD and discriminated experimental conditions in a machine learning-based analysis with high accuracy (91.11%), highlighting the potential of using whole-brain EC to decode or predict subjective effects of LSD in the future.

Individual differences in computational psychiatry: A review of current challenges.

Bringing precision to the understanding and treatment of mental disorders requires instruments for studying clinically relevant individual differences. One promising approach is the development of computational assays: integrating computational models with cognitive tasks to infer latent patient-specific disease processes in brain computations. While recent years have seen many methodological advancements in computational modelling and many cross-sectional patient studies, much less attention has been paid to basic psychometric properties (reliability and construct validity) of the computational measures provided by the assays. In this review, we assess the extent of this issue by examining emerging empirical evidence. We find that many computational measures suffer from poor psychometric properties, which poses a risk of invalidating previous findings and undermining ongoing research efforts using computational assays to study individual (and even group) differences. We provide recommendations for how to address these problems and, crucially, embed them within a broader perspective on key developments that are needed for translating computational assays to clinical practice.

Atypical prediction error learning is associated with prodromal symptoms in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis.

Reductions in the auditory mismatch negativity (MMN) have been well-demonstrated in schizophrenia rendering it a promising biomarker for understanding the emergence of psychosis. According to the predictive coding theory of psychosis, MMN impairments may reflect disturbances in hierarchical information processing driven by maladaptive precision-weighted prediction errors (pwPEs) and enhanced belief updating. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian model of learning to single-trial EEG data from an auditory oddball paradigm in 31 help-seeking antipsychotic-naive high-risk individuals and 23 healthy controls to understand the computational mechanisms underlying the auditory MMN. We found that low-level sensory and high-level volatility pwPE expression correlated with EEG amplitudes, coinciding with the timing of the MMN. Furthermore, we found that prodromal positive symptom severity was associated with increased expression of sensory pwPEs and higher-level belief uncertainty. Our findings provide support for the role of pwPEs in auditory MMN generation, and suggest that increased sensory pwPEs driven by changes in belief uncertainty may render the environment seemingly unpredictable. This may predispose high-risk individuals to delusion-like ideation to explain this experience. These results highlight the value of computational models for understanding the pathophysiological mechanisms of psychosis.

Computational approaches to treatment response prediction in major depression using brain activity and behavioral data: A systematic review.

Major depressive disorder is a heterogeneous diagnostic category with multiple available treatments. With the goal of optimizing treatment selection, researchers are developing computational models that attempt to predict treatment response based on various pretreatment measures. In this paper, we review studies that use brain activity data to predict treatment response. Our aim is to highlight and clarify important methodological differences between various studies that relate to the incorporation of domain knowledge, specifically within two approaches delineated as data-driven and theory-driven. We argue that theory-driven generative modeling, which explicitly models information processing in the brain and thus can capture disease mechanisms, is a promising emerging approach that is only beginning to be utilized in treatment response prediction. The predictors extracted via such models could improve interpretability, which is critical for clinical decision-making. We also identify several methodological limitations across the reviewed studies and provide suggestions for addressing them. Namely, we consider problems with dichotomizing treatment outcomes, the importance of investigating more than one treatment in a given study for differential treatment response predictions, the need for a patient-centered approach for defining treatment outcomes, and finally, the use of internal and external validation methods for improving model generalizability.

Individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) vary in their response to available treatments, rendering treatment selection a challenging task. In this paper, we review studies applying computational models for predicting treatment response in MDD based on measures of brain activity. We discuss methodological differences across studies, focusing on how they incorporate existing knowledge about MDD and how that affects interpretability of model predictions. In this context, we argue that theory-driven generative modeling, which explicitly models information processing in the brain and thus can capture disease mechanisms, is a promising emerging approach for treatment response prediction. Finally, we identify several other important limitations that are holding back the translation of these tools into clinical practice.

A Computational Model of Hopelessness and Active-Escape Bias in Suicidality.

Currently, psychiatric practice lacks reliable predictive tools and a sufficiently detailed mechanistic understanding of suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STB) to provide timely and personalized interventions. Developing computational models of STB that integrate across behavioral, cognitive and neural levels of analysis could help better understand STB vulnerabilities and guide personalized interventions. To that end, we present a computational model based on the active inference framework. With this model, we show that several STB risk markers - hopelessness, Pavlovian bias and active-escape bias - are interrelated via the drive to maximize one's model evidence. We propose four ways in which these effects can arise: (1) increased learning from aversive outcomes, (2) reduced belief decay in response to unexpected outcomes, (3) increased stress sensitivity and (4) reduced sense of stressor controllability. These proposals stem from considering the neurocircuits implicated in STB: how the locus coeruleus - norepinephrine (LC-NE) system together with the amygdala (Amy), the dorsal prefrontal cortex (dPFC) and the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) mediate learning in response to acute stress and volatility as well as how the dorsal raphe nucleus - serotonin (DRN-5-HT) system together with the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) mediate stress reactivity based on perceived stressor controllability. We validate the model by simulating performance in an Avoid/Escape Go/No-Go task replicating recent behavioral findings. This serves as a proof of concept and provides a computational hypothesis space that can be tested empirically and be used to distinguish planful versus impulsive STB subtypes. We discuss the relevance of the proposed model for treatment response prediction, including pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy, as well as sex differences as it relates to stress reactivity and suicide risk.

Reduced cortical GABA and glutamate in high schizotypy.

RATIONALE: Abnormal functioning of the inhibitory gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) and excitatory (glutamate) systems is proposed to play a role in the development of schizophrenia spectrum disorder. Although results are mixed, previous 1H-magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) studies in schizophrenia and clinical high-risk samples report these metabolites are altered in comparison to healthy controls. Currently, however, there are few studies of these metabolites in schizotypy samples, a personality dimension associated with the experience of schizophrenia and psychosis-like symptoms. OBJECTIVES: We investigated if GABA and glutamate metabolite concentrations are altered in people with high schizotypy. We also explored the relationship between resilience to stress, GABA metabolite concentrations and schizotypy. METHODS: We used MRS to examine GABA and glutamate levels in the medial prefrontal cortex in people with low and high schizotypy traits as assessed with the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire. Resilience to stress was assessed using the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale. RESULTS: Compared to individuals with low schizotypy traits, high schizotypy individuals showed lower cortical prefrontal GABA (F (1,38) = 5.18, p = 0.03, η2 = 0.09) and glutamate metabolite levels (F (1, 49) = 6.25, p = 0.02, η2 = 0.02). Furthermore, participants with high GABA and high resilience levels were significantly more likely to be in the low schizotypy group than participants with low GABA and high resilience or high GABA and low resilience (95% CI 1.07-1.34, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: These findings demonstrate that subclinical schizotypal traits are associated with abnormal functioning of both inhibitory and excitatory systems and suggest that these transmitters are implicated in a personality trait believed to be on a continuum with psychosis.

Human aging alters social inference about others' changing intentions.

Decoding others' intentions accurately in order to adapt one's own behavior is pivotal throughout life. In this study, we asked how younger and older adults deal with uncertainty in dynamic social environments. We used an advice-taking paradigm together with Bayesian modeling to characterize effects of aging on learning about others' time-varying intentions. We observed age differences when comparing learning on two levels of social uncertainty: the fidelity of the adviser and the volatility of intentions. Older adults expected the adviser to change his/her intentions more frequently (i.e., a higher volatility of the adviser). They also showed higher confidence (i.e., precision) in their volatility beliefs and were less willing to change their beliefs about volatility over the course of the experiment. This led them to update their predictions about the fidelity of the adviser more quickly. Potentially indicative of stereotype effects, we observed that older advisers were perceived as more volatile, but also more faithful than younger advisers. This offers new insights into adult age differences in response to social uncertainty.

Ten simple rules for creating a brand-new virtual academic meeting (even amid a pandemic).

The increased democratization of the creation, implementation, and attendance of academic conferences has been a serendipitous benefit of the movement toward virtual meetings. The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has accelerated the transition to online conferences and, in parallel, their democratization, by necessity. This manifests not just in the mitigation of barriers to attending traditional physical conferences but also in the presentation of new, and more importantly attainable, opportunities for young scientists to carve out a niche in the landscape of academic meetings. Here, we describe an early "proof of principle" of this democratizing power via our experience organizing the Canadian Computational Neuroscience Spotlight (CCNS; crowdcast.io/e/CCNS), a free 2-day virtual meeting that was built entirely amid the pandemic using only virtual tools. While our experience was unique considering the obstacles faced in creating a conference during a pandemic, this was not the only factor differentiating both our experience and the resulting meeting from other contemporary online conferences. Specifically, CCNS was crafted entirely by early career researchers (ECRs) without any sponsors or partners, advertised primarily using social media and "word of mouth," and designed specifically to highlight and engage trainees. From this experience, we have distilled "10 simple rules" as a blueprint for the design of new virtual academic meetings, especially in the absence of institutional support or partnerships, in this unprecedented environment. By highlighting the lessons learned in implementing our meeting under these arduous circumstances, we hope to encourage other young scientists to embrace this challenge, which would serve as a critical next step in further democratizing academic meetings.

Aberrant computational mechanisms of social learning and decision-making in schizophrenia and borderline personality disorder.

Psychiatric disorders are ubiquitously characterized by debilitating social impairments. These difficulties are thought to emerge from aberrant social inference. In order to elucidate the underlying computational mechanisms, patients diagnosed with major depressive disorder (N = 29), schizophrenia (N = 31), and borderline personality disorder (N = 31) as well as healthy controls (N = 34) performed a probabilistic reward learning task in which participants could learn from social and non-social information. Patients with schizophrenia and borderline personality disorder performed more poorly on the task than healthy controls and patients with major depressive disorder. Broken down by domain, borderline personality disorder patients performed better in the social compared to the non-social domain. In contrast, controls and major depressive disorder patients showed the opposite pattern and schizophrenia patients showed no difference between domains. In effect, borderline personality disorder patients gave up a possible overall performance advantage by concentrating their learning in the social at the expense of the non-social domain. We used computational modeling to assess learning and decision-making parameters estimated for each participant from their behavior. This enabled additional insights into the underlying learning and decision-making mechanisms. Patients with borderline personality disorder showed slower learning from social and non-social information and an exaggerated sensitivity to changes in environmental volatility, both in the non-social and the social domain, but more so in the latter. Regarding decision-making the modeling revealed that compared to controls and major depression patients, patients with borderline personality disorder and schizophrenia showed a stronger reliance on social relative to non-social information when making choices. Depressed patients did not differ significantly from controls in this respect. Overall, our results are consistent with the notion of a general interpersonal hypersensitivity in borderline personality disorder and schizophrenia based on a shared computational mechanism characterized by an over-reliance on beliefs about others in making decisions and by an exaggerated need to make sense of others during learning specifically in borderline personality disorder.

Ketamine Affects Prediction Errors about Statistical Regularities: A Computational Single-Trial Analysis of the Mismatch Negativity.

The auditory mismatch negativity (MMN) is significantly reduced in schizophrenia. Notably, a similar MMN reduction can be achieved with NMDA receptor (NMDAR) antagonists. Both phenomena have been interpreted as reflecting an impairment of predictive coding or, more generally, the "Bayesian brain" notion that the brain continuously updates a hierarchical model to infer the causes of its sensory inputs. Specifically, neurobiological interpretations of predictive coding view perceptual inference as an NMDAR-dependent process of minimizing hierarchical precision-weighted prediction errors (PEs), and disturbances of this putative process play a key role in hierarchical Bayesian theories of schizophrenia. Here, we provide empirical evidence for this theory, demonstrating the existence of multiple, hierarchically related PEs in a "roving MMN" paradigm. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian model to single-trial EEG data from healthy human volunteers of either sex who received the NMDAR antagonist S-ketamine in a placebo-controlled, double-blind, within-subject fashion. Using an unrestricted analysis of the entire time-sensor space, our trial-by-trial analysis indicated that low-level PEs (about stimulus transitions) are expressed early (102-207 ms poststimulus), while high-level PEs (about transition probability) are reflected by later components (152-199 and 215-277 ms) of single-trial responses. Furthermore, we find that ketamine significantly diminished the expression of high-level PE responses, implying that NMDAR antagonism disrupts the inference on abstract statistical regularities. Our findings suggest that NMDAR dysfunction impairs hierarchical Bayesian inference about the world's statistical structure. Beyond the relevance of this finding for schizophrenia, our results illustrate the potential of computational single-trial analyses for assessing potential pathophysiological mechanisms.

Bayesian modelling captures inter-individual differences in social belief computations in the putamen and insula.

Computational models of social learning and decision-making provide mechanistic tools to investigate the neural mechanisms that are involved in understanding other people. While most studies employ explicit instructions to learn from social cues, everyday life is characterized by the spontaneous use of such signals (e.g., the gaze of others) to infer on internal states such as intentions. To investigate the neural mechanisms of the impact of gaze cues on learning and decision-making, we acquired behavioural and fMRI data from 50 participants performing a probabilistic task, in which cards with varying winning probabilities had to be chosen. In addition, the task included a computer-generated face that gazed towards one of these cards providing implicit advice. Participants' individual belief trajectories were inferred using a hierarchical Gaussian filter (HGF) and used as predictors in a linear model of neuronal activation. During learning, social prediction errors were correlated with activity in inferior frontal gyrus and insula. During decision-making, the belief about the accuracy of the social cue was correlated with activity in inferior temporal gyrus, putamen and pallidum while the putamen and insula showed activity as a function of individual differences in weighting the social cue during decision-making. Our findings demonstrate that model-based fMRI can give insight into the behavioural and neural aspects of spontaneous social cue integration in learning and decision-making. They provide evidence for a mechanistic involvement of specific components of the basal ganglia in subserving these processes.

Atypical processing of uncertainty in individuals at risk for psychosis.

Current theories of psychosis highlight the role of abnormal learning signals, i.e., prediction errors (PEs) and uncertainty, in the formation of delusional beliefs. We employed computational analyses of behaviour and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine whether such abnormalities are evident in clinical high risk (CHR) individuals. Non-medicated CHR individuals (n = 13) and control participants (n = 13) performed a probabilistic learning paradigm during fMRI data acquisition. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model to infer subject-specific computations from behaviour - with a focus on PEs and uncertainty (or its inverse, precision) at different levels, including environmental 'volatility' - and used these computational quantities for analyses of fMRI data. Computational modelling of CHR individuals' behaviour indicated volatility estimates converged to significantly higher levels than in controls. Model-based fMRI demonstrated increased activity in prefrontal and insular regions of CHR individuals in response to precision-weighted low-level outcome PEs, while activations of prefrontal, orbitofrontal and anterior insula cortex by higher-level PEs (that serve to update volatility estimates) were reduced. Additionally, prefrontal cortical activity in response to outcome PEs in CHR was negatively associated with clinical measures of global functioning. Our results suggest a multi-faceted learning abnormality in CHR individuals under conditions of environmental uncertainty, comprising higher levels of volatility estimates combined with reduced cortical activation, and abnormally high activations in prefrontal and insular areas by precision-weighted outcome PEs. This atypical representation of high- and low-level learning signals might reflect a predisposition to delusion formation.

Social Bayes: Using Bayesian Modeling to Study Autistic Trait-Related Differences in Social Cognition.

BACKGROUND: The autistic spectrum is characterized by profound impairments of social interaction. The exact subpersonal processes, however, that underlie the observable lack of social reciprocity are still a matter of substantial controversy. Recently, it has been suggested that the autistic spectrum might be characterized by alterations of the brain's inference about the causes of socially relevant sensory signals. METHODS: We used a novel reward-based learning task that required integration of nonsocial and social cues in conjunction with computational modeling. Thirty-six healthy subjects were selected based on their score on the Autism-Spectrum Quotient (AQ), and AQ scores were assessed for correlations with cue-related model parameters and task scores. RESULTS: Individual differences in AQ scores were significantly correlated with participants' total task scores, with high AQ scorers performing more poorly in the task (r = -.39, 95% confidence interval = -0.68 to -0.13). Computational modeling of the behavioral data unmasked a learning deficit in high AQ scorers, namely, the failure to integrate social context to adapt one's belief precision-the precision afforded to prior beliefs about changing states in the world-particularly in relation to the nonsocial cue. CONCLUSIONS: More pronounced autistic traits in a group of healthy control subjects were related to lower scores associated with misintegration of the social cue. Computational modeling further demonstrated that these trait-related performance differences are not explained by an inability to process the social stimuli and their causes, but rather by the extent to which participants consider social information to infer the nonsocial cue.