ABSTRACT
Numerous qPCR-based methods are available to estimate the concentration of fecal pollution sources in surface waters. However, qPCR fecal source identification data sets often include a high proportion of non-detections (reactions failing to attain a prespecified minimal signal intensity for detection) and measurements below the assay lower limit of quantification (minimal signal intensity required to estimate target concentration), making it challenging to interpret results in a quantitative manner while accounting for error. In response, a Bayesian statistic based Fecal Score (FS) approach was developed that estimates the weighted average concentration of a fecal source identification genetic marker across a defined group of samples, mathematically incorporating qPCR measurements from all samples. Yet, implementation is technically demanding and computationally intensive requiring specialized training, the use of expert software, and access to high performance computing. To address these limitations, this study reports a novel approximation model for FS determination based on a frequentist approach. The performance of the Bayesian and Frequentist models are compared using fecal source identification qPCR data representative of different 'censored' data scenarios from a recently published study focusing on the impact of stormwater discharge in urban streams. In addition, data set eligibility recommendations for the responsible use of these models are presented. Findings indicate that the Frequentist model can generate similar average concentrations and uncertainty estimates for FS, compared to the original Bayesian approach. The Frequentist model should make calculations less computationally and technically intensive, allowing for the development of easier to use data analysis tools for fecal source identification applications.
ABSTRACT
Municipal stormwater systems are designed to collect, transport, and discharge precipitation from a defined catchment area into local surface waters. However, these discharges may contain unsafe levels of fecal waste. Paired measurements of Escherichia coli, precipitation, three land use metrics determined by geographic information system (GIS) mapping, and host-associated genetic markers indicative of human (HF183/BacR287 and HumM2), ruminant (Rum2Bac), dog (DG3), and avian (GFD) fecal sources were assessed in 231 urban stream samples impacted by two or more municipal stormwater outfalls. Receiving water samples were collected twice per month (n = 24) and after rain events (n = 9) from seven headwaters of the Anacostia River in the District of Columbia (United States) exhibiting a gradient of impervious surface, residential, and park surface areas. Almost 50% of stream samples (n = 103) were impaired, exceeding the local E. coli single sample maximum assessment level (410 MPN/100 ml). Fecal scores (average log10 copies per 100 ml) were determined to prioritize sites by pollution source and to evaluate potential links with land use, rainfall, and E. coli levels using a recently developed censored data analysis approach. Dog, ruminant, and avian fecal scores were almost always significantly increased after rain or when E. coli levels exceeded the local benchmark. Human fecal pollution trends showed the greatest variability with detections ranging from 9.1% to 96.7% across sites. Avian fecal scores exhibited the closest connection to land use, significantly increasing in catchments with larger residential areas after rain events (p = 0.038; R2 = 0.62). Overall, results demonstrate that combining genetic fecal source identification methods with GIS mapping complements routine E. coli monitoring to improve management of urban streams impacted by stormwater outfalls.
