Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of decentralising childhood tuberculosis diagnosis in six high tuberculosis incidence countries: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: The burden of childhood tuberculosis remains high globally, largely due to under-diagnosis. Decentralising childhood tuberculosis diagnosis services to lower health system levels could improve case detection, but there is little empirically based evidence on cost-effectiveness or budget impact. Methods: In this mathematical modelling study, we assessed the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of decentralising a comprehensive diagnosis package for childhood tuberculosis to district hospitals (DH-focused) or primary health centres (PHC-focused) compared to standard of care (SOC). The project was conducted in Cambodia, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and Uganda between August 1st, 2018 and September 30th, 2021. A mathematical model was developed to assess the health and economic outcomes of the intervention from a health system perspective. Estimated outcomes were tuberculosis cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We also calculated the budget impact of nationwide implementation. The TB-Speed Decentralization study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04038632. Findings: For the DH-focused strategy versus SOC, ICERs ranged between $263 (Cambodia) and $342 (Côte d'Ivoire) per DALY averted. For the PHC-focused strategy versus SOC, ICERs ranged between $477 (Cambodia) and $599 (Côte d'Ivoire) per DALY averted. Results were sensitive to TB prevalence and the discount rate used. The additional costs of implementing the DH-focused strategy ranged between $12.8 M (range 10.8-16.4) (Cambodia) and $50.4 M (36.5-74.4) (Mozambique), and between $13.9 M (12.6-15.6) (Sierra Leone) and $134.6 M (127.1-143.0) (Uganda) for the PHC-focused strategy. Interpretation: The DH-focused strategy may be cost-effective in some countries, depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold used for policy making. Either intervention would require substantial early investment. Funding: Unitaid.

Multi-ancestry meta-analysis of host genetic susceptibility to tuberculosis identifies shared genetic architecture.

The heritability of susceptibility to tuberculosis (TB) disease has been well recognized. Over 100 genes have been studied as candidates for TB susceptibility, and several variants were identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS), but few replicate. We established the International Tuberculosis Host Genetics Consortium to perform a multi-ancestry meta-analysis of GWAS, including 14,153 cases and 19,536 controls of African, Asian, and European ancestry. Our analyses demonstrate a substantial degree of heritability (pooled polygenic h2 = 26.3%, 95% CI 23.7-29.0%) for susceptibility to TB that is shared across ancestries, highlighting an important host genetic influence on disease. We identified one global host genetic correlate for TB at genome-wide significance (p<5 × 10-8) in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-II region (rs28383206, p-value=5.2 × 10-9) but failed to replicate variants previously associated with TB susceptibility. These data demonstrate the complex shared genetic architecture of susceptibility to TB and the importance of large-scale GWAS analysis across multiple ancestries experiencing different levels of infection pressure.

The prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born Canadians: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of tuberculosis infection is critical to the design of tuberculosis prevention strategies, yet is unknown in Canada. We estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis infection among Canadian residents born abroad. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis infection by age and year of migration to Canada for people from each of 168 countries by constructing country-specific and calendar year-specific trends for annual risk of infection using a previously developed model. We combined country-specific prevalence estimates with Canadian Census data from 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 to estimate the overall prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born Canadian residents. RESULTS: The estimated overall prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born people in Canada was 25% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 20%-35%) for census year 2001, 24% (95% UI 20%-33%) for 2006, 23% (95% UI 19%-30%) for 2011, 22% (95% UI 19%-28%) for 2016 and 22% (95% UI 19%-27%) for 2021. The prevalence increased with age at migration and incidence of tuberculosis in the country of origin. In 2021, the estimated prevalence of infection among foreign-born residents was lowest in Quebec (19%, 95% UI 16%-24%) and highest in Alberta (24%, 95% UI 21%-28%) and British Columbia (24%, 95% UI 20%-30%). Among all foreign-born Canadian residents with tuberculosis infection in 2021, we estimated that only 1 in 488 (95% UI 185-1039) had become infected within the 2 preceding years. INTERPRETATION: About 1 in 4 foreign-born Canadian residents has tuberculosis infection, but very few were infected within the 2 preceding years (the highest risk period for progression to tuberculosis disease). These data may inform future tuberculosis infection screening policies.

Estimating the contribution of subclinical tuberculosis disease to transmission: An individual patient data analysis from prevalence surveys.

Background: Individuals with bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease who do not report symptoms (subclinical TB) represent around half of all prevalent cases of TB, yet their contribution to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission is unknown, especially compared to individuals who report symptoms at the time of diagnosis (clinical TB). Relative infectiousness can be approximated by cumulative infections in household contacts, but such data are rare. Methods: We reviewed the literature to identify studies where surveys of Mtb infection were linked to population surveys of TB disease. We collated individual-level data on representative populations for analysis and used literature on the relative durations of subclinical and clinical TB to estimate relative infectiousness through a cumulative hazard model, accounting for sputum-smear status. Relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical disease in high-burden settings was used to estimate the contribution of subclinical TB to global Mtb transmission. Results: We collated data on 414 index cases and 789 household contacts from three prevalence surveys (Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Viet Nam) and one case-finding trial in Viet Nam. The odds ratio for infection in a household with a clinical versus subclinical index case (irrespective of sputum smear status) was 1.2 (0.6-2.3, 95% confidence interval). Adjusting for duration of disease, we found a per-unit-time infectiousness of subclinical TB relative to clinical TB of 1.93 (0.62-6.18, 95% prediction interval [PrI]). Fourteen countries across Asia and Africa provided data on relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical TB, suggesting an estimated 68% (27-92%, 95% PrI) of global transmission is from subclinical TB. Conclusions: Our results suggest that subclinical TB contributes substantially to transmission and needs to be diagnosed and treated for effective progress towards TB elimination. Funding: JCE, KCH, ASR, NS, and RH have received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (ERC Starting Grant No. 757699) KCH is also supported by UK FCDO (Leaving no-one behind: transforming gendered pathways to health for TB). This research has been partially funded by UK aid from the UK government (to KCH); however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government's official policies. PJD was supported by a fellowship from the UK Medical Research Council (MR/P022081/1); this UK-funded award is part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. RGW is funded by the Wellcome Trust (218261/Z/19/Z), NIH (1R01AI147321-01), EDTCP (RIA208D-2505B), UK MRC (CCF17-7779 via SET Bloomsbury), ESRC (ES/P008011/1), BMGF (OPP1084276, OPP1135288 and INV-001754), and the WHO (2020/985800-0).

Cost-effectiveness of community-based household tuberculosis contact management for children in Cameroon and Uganda: a modelling analysis of a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: WHO recommends household contact management (HCM) including contact screening and tuberculosis-preventive treatment (TPT) for eligible children. The CONTACT trial found increased TPT initiation and completion rates when community health workers were used for HCM in Cameroon and Uganda. METHODS: We did a cost-utility analysis of the CONTACT trial using a health-system perspective to estimate the health impact, health-system costs, and cost-effectiveness of community-based versus facility-based HCM models of care. A decision-analytical modelling approach was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the intervention compared with the standard of care using trial data on cascade of care, intervention effects, and resource use. Health outcomes were based on modelled progression to tuberculosis, mortality, and discounted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. Health-care resource use, outcomes, costs (2021 US$), and cost-effectiveness are presented. FINDINGS: For every 1000 index patients diagnosed with tuberculosis, the intervention increased the number of TPT courses by 1110 (95% uncertainty interval 894 to 1227) in Cameroon and by 1078 (796 to 1220) in Uganda compared with the control model. The intervention prevented 15 (-3 to 49) tuberculosis deaths in Cameroon and 10 (-20 to 33) in Uganda. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $620 per DALY averted in Cameroon and $970 per DALY averted in Uganda. INTERPRETATION: Community-based HCM approaches can substantially reduce child tuberculosis deaths and in our case would be considered cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds of $1000 per DALY averted. Their impact and cost-effectiveness are likely to be greatest where baseline HCM coverage is lowest. FUNDING: Unitaid and UK Medical Research Council.

Effectiveness of a community-based approach for the investigation and management of children with household tuberculosis contact in Cameroon and Uganda: a cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Globally, the uptake of tuberculosis-preventive treatment (TPT) among children with household tuberculosis contact remains low, partly due to the necessity of bringing children to health facilities for investigations. This study aimed to evaluate the effect on TPT initiation and completion of community-based approaches to tuberculosis contact investigations in Cameroon and Uganda. METHODS: We did a parallel, cluster-randomised, controlled trial across 20 clusters (consisting of 25 district hospitals and primary health centres) in Cameroon and Uganda, which were randomised (1:1) to receive a community-based approach (intervention group) or standard-of-care facility-based approach to contact screening and management (control group). The community-based approach consisted of symptom-based tuberculosis screening of all household contacts by community health workers at the household, with referral of symptomatic contacts to local facilities for investigations. Initiation of TPT (3-month course of rifampicin-isoniazid) was done by a nurse in the household, and home visits for TPT follow-up were done by community health workers. Index patients were people aged 15 years or older with bacteriologically confirmed, drug-susceptible, pulmonary tuberculosis diagnosed less than 1 month before inclusion and who declared at least one child or young adolescent (aged 0-14 years) household contact. The primary endpoint was the proportion of declared child contacts in the TPT target group (those aged <5 years irrespective of HIV status, and children aged 5-14 years living with HIV) who commenced and completed TPT, assessed in the modified intention-to-treat population (excluding enrolled index patients and their contacts who did not fit the eligibility criteria). Descriptive cascade of care assessment and generalised linear mixed modelling were used for comparison. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03832023). FINDINGS: The study included nine clusters in the intervention group (after excluding one cluster that did not enrol any index patients for >2 months) and ten in the control group. Between Oct 14, 2019 and Jan 13, 2022, 2894 child contacts were declared by 899 index patients with bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis. Among all child contacts declared, 1548 (81·9%) of 1889 in the intervention group and 475 (47·3%) of 1005 in the control group were screened for tuberculosis. 1400 (48·4%) child contacts were considered to be in the TPT target group: 941 (49·8%) of 1889 in the intervention group and 459 (45·7%) of 1005 in the control group. In the TPT target group, TPT was commenced and completed in 752 (79·9%) of 941 child contacts in the intervention group and 283 (61·7%) of 459 in the control group (odds ratio 3·06 [95% CI 1·24-7·53]). INTERPRETATION: A community-based approach using community health workers can significantly increase contact investigation coverage and TPT completion among eligible child contacts in a tuberculosis-endemic setting. FUNDING: Unitaid. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Tuberculosis prevalence after 4 years of population-wide systematic TB symptom screening and universal testing and treatment for HIV in the HPTN 071 (PopART) community-randomised trial in Zambia and South Africa: A cross-sectional survey (TREATS).

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) prevalence remains persistently high in many settings, with new or expanded interventions required to achieve substantial reductions. The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 071 (PopART) community-randomised trial randomised 14 communities to receive the "PopART" intervention during 2014 to 2017 (7 arm A and 7 arm B communities) and 7 communities to receive standard-of-care (arm C). The intervention was delivered door-to-door by community HIV care providers (CHiPs) and included universal HIV testing, facilitated linkage to HIV care at government health clinics, and systematic TB symptom screening. The Tuberculosis Reduction through Expanded Anti-retroviral Treatment and Screening (TREATS) study aimed to measure the impact of delivering the PopART intervention on TB outcomes, in communities with high HIV and TB prevalence. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The study population of the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial included individuals aged ≥15 years living in 21 urban and peri-urban communities in Zambia and South Africa, with a total population of approximately 1 million and an adult HIV prevalence of around 15% at the time of the trial. Two sputum samples for TB testing were provided to CHiPs by individuals who reported ≥1 TB suggestive symptom (a cough for ≥2 weeks, unintentional weight loss ≥1.5 kg in the last month, or current night sweats) or that a household member was currently on TB treatment. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) was offered universally at clinics in arm A and according to local guidelines in arms B and C. The TREATS study was conducted in the same 21 communities as the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial between 2017 and 2022, and TB prevalence was a co-primary endpoint of the TREATS study. The primary comparison was between the PopART intervention (arms A and B combined) and the standard-of-care (arm C). During 2019 to 2021, a TB prevalence survey was conducted among randomly selected individuals aged ≥15 years (approximately 1,750 per community in arms A and B, approximately 3,500 in arm C). Participants were screened on TB symptoms and chest X-ray, with diagnostic testing using Xpert-Ultra followed by culture for individuals who screened positive. Sputum eligibility was determined by the presence of a cough for ≥2 weeks, or ≥2 of 5 "TB suggestive" symptoms (cough, weight loss for ≥4 weeks, night sweats, chest pain, and fever for ≥2 weeks), or chest X-ray CAD4TBv5 score ≥50, or no available X-ray results. TB prevalence was compared between trial arms using standard methods for cluster-randomised trials, with adjustment for age, sex, and HIV status, and multiple imputation was used for missing data on prevalent TB. Among 83,092 individuals who were eligible for the survey, 49,556 (59.6%) participated, 8,083 (16.3%) screened positive, 90.8% (7,336/8,083) provided 2 sputum samples for Xpert-Ultra testing, and 308 (4.2%) required culture confirmation. Overall, estimated TB prevalence was 0.92% (457/49,556). The geometric means of 7 community-level prevalence estimates were 0.91%, 0.70%, and 0.69% in arms A, B, and C, respectively, with no evidence of a difference comparing arms A and B combined with arm C (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval, CI [0.67, 1.95], p = 0.60). TB prevalence was higher among people living with HIV than HIV-negative individuals, with an age-sex-community adjusted odds ratio of 2.29 [95% CI 1.54, 3.41] in Zambian communities and 1.61 [95% CI 1.13, 2.30] in South African communities. The primary limitations are that the study was powered to detect only large reductions in TB prevalence in the intervention arm compared with standard-of-care, and the between-community variation in TB prevalence was larger than anticipated. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence that the PopART intervention reduced TB prevalence. Systematic screening for TB that is based on symptom screening alone may not be sufficient to achieve a large reduction in TB prevalence over a period of several years. Including chest X-ray screening alongside TB symptom screening could substantially increase the sensitivity of systematic screening for TB. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The TREATS study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03739736 on November 14, 2018. The HPTN 071 (PopART) trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under number NCT01900977 on July 17, 2013.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of interventions to improve diagnosis and preventive therapy for paediatric tuberculosis in 9 sub-Saharan African countries: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Over 1 million children aged 0 to 14 years were estimated to develop tuberculosis in 2021, resulting in over 200,000 deaths. Practical interventions are urgently needed to improve diagnosis and antituberculosis treatment (ATT) initiation in children aged 0 to 14 years and to increase coverage of tuberculosis preventive therapy (TPT) in children at high risk of developing tuberculosis disease. The multicountry CaP-TB intervention scaled up facility-based intensified case finding and strengthened household contact management and TPT provision at HIV clinics. To add to the limited health-economic evidence on interventions to improve ATT and TPT in children, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the CaP-TB intervention. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed clinic-level pre/post data to quantify the impact of the CaP-TB intervention on ATT and TPT initiation across 9 sub-Saharan African countries. Data on tuberculosis diagnosis and ATT/TPT initiation counts with corresponding follow-up time were available for 146 sites across the 9 countries prior to and post project implementation, stratified by 0 to 4 and 5 to 14 year age-groups. Preintervention data were retrospectively collected from facility registers for a 12-month period, and intervention data were prospectively collected from December 2018 to June 2021 using project-specific forms. Bayesian generalised linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate country-level rate ratios for tuberculosis diagnosis and ATT/TPT initiation. We analysed project expenditure and cascade data to determine unit costs of intervention components and used mathematical modelling to project health impact, health system costs, and cost-effectiveness. Overall, ATT and TPT initiation increased, with country-level incidence rate ratios varying between 0.8 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 0.7 to 1.0) and 2.9 (95% UI, 2.3 to 3.6) for ATT and between 1.6 (95% UI, 1.5 to 1.8) and 9.8 (95% UI, 8.1 to 11.8) for TPT. We projected that for every 100 children starting either ATT or TPT at baseline, the intervention package translated to between 1 (95% UI, -1 to 3) and 38 (95% UI, 24 to 58) deaths averted, with a median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$634 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. ICERs ranged between US$135/DALY averted in Democratic of the Congo and US$6,804/DALY averted in Cameroon. The main limitation of our study is that the impact is based on pre/post comparisons, which could be confounded. CONCLUSIONS: In most countries, the CaP-TB intervention package improved tuberculosis treatment and prevention services for children aged under 15 years, but large variation in estimated impact and ICERs highlights the importance of local context. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This evaluation is part of the TIPPI study, registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03948698).

Impact of Community-Wide Tuberculosis Active Case Finding and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Testing on Tuberculosis Trends in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis case-finding interventions are critical to meeting World Health Organization End TB strategy goals. We investigated the impact of community-wide tuberculosis active case finding (ACF) alongside scale-up of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing and care on trends in adult tuberculosis case notification rates (CNRs) in Blantyre, Malawi. METHODS: Five rounds of ACF for tuberculosis (1-2 weeks of leafleting, door-to-door enquiry for cough and sputum microscopy) were delivered to neighborhoods ("ACF areas") in North-West Blantyre between April 2011 and August 2014. Many of these neighborhoods also had concurrent HIV testing interventions. The remaining neighborhoods in Blantyre City ("non-ACF areas") provided a non-randomized comparator. We analyzed TB CNRs from January 2009 until December 2018. We used interrupted time series analysis to compare tuberculosis CNRs before ACF and after ACF, and between ACF and non-ACF areas. RESULTS: Tuberculosis CNRs increased in Blantyre concurrently with start of ACF for tuberculosis in both ACF and non-ACF areas, with a larger magnitude in ACF areas. Compared to a counterfactual where pre-ACF CNR trends continued during ACF period, we estimated there were an additional 101 (95% confidence interval [CI] 42 to 160) microbiologically confirmed (Bac+) tuberculosis diagnoses per 100 000 person-years in the ACF areas in 3 and a half years of ACF. Compared to a counterfactual where trends in ACF area were the same as trends in non-ACF areas, we estimated an additional 63 (95% CI 38 to 90) Bac + diagnoses per 100 000 person-years in the same period. CONCLUSIONS: Tuberculosis ACF was associated with a rapid increase in people diagnosed with tuberculosis in Blantyre.

Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions.

To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed; principles for designing a complex systems model; and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.

Transmission modeling to infer tuberculosis incidence prevalence and mortality in settings with generalized HIV epidemics.

Tuberculosis (TB) killed more people globally than any other single pathogen over the past decade. Where surveillance is weak, estimating TB burden estimates uses modeling. In many African countries, increases in HIV prevalence and antiretroviral therapy have driven dynamic TB epidemics, complicating estimation of burden, trends, and potential intervention impact. We therefore develop a novel age-structured TB transmission model incorporating evolving demographic, HIV and antiretroviral therapy effects, and calibrate to TB prevalence and notification data from 12 African countries. We use Bayesian methods to include uncertainty for all TB model parameters, and estimate age-specific annual risks of TB infection, finding up to 16.0%/year in adults, and the proportion of TB incidence from recent (re)infection, finding a mean across countries of 34%. Rapid reduction of the unacceptably high burden of TB in high HIV prevalence settings will require interventions addressing progression as well as transmission.

Global impact of COVID-19 on childhood tuberculosis: an analysis of notification data.

BACKGROUND: There is concern that the COVID-19 pandemic has damaged global childhood tuberculosis management. Quantifying changes in childhood tuberculosis notifications could support more targeted interventions to restore childhood tuberculosis services. We aimed to use time-series modelling to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on child tuberculosis notifications. METHODS: Annual tuberculosis case notification data reported to WHO by 215 countries were used to calculate annual notification counts for the years 2014-20, stratified by age groups (0-4, 5-14, and ≥15 years) and sex. We used time-series modelling to predict notification counts for 2020, and calculated differences between these predictions and observed notifications in 2020 for each of the six WHO regions and at the country level for 30 countries with high tuberculosis burden. We assessed associations between these differences and the COVID-19 stringency index, a measure of COVID-19 social impact. FINDINGS: From 2014 to 2019, annual tuberculosis notification counts increased across all age groups and WHO regions. More males than females in the 0-4 years age group and ≥15 years age group had notifications in all years from 2014 to 2020 and in all WHO regions. In the 5-14 years age group, more females than males were notified globally in all years, although some WHO regions had higher notifications from males than females. In 2020, global notifications were 35·4% lower than predicted (95% prediction interval -30·3 to -39·9; 142 525 observed vs 220 794 predicted notifications [95% prediction interval 204 509 to 237 078]) for children aged 0-4 years, 27·7% lower (-23·4 to -31·5; 256 398 vs 354 578 [334 724 to 374 431]) in children aged 5-14 years, and 18·8% lower (-15·4 to -21·9; 5 391 753 vs 6 639 547 [6 375 086 to 6 904 007]) for people aged 15 years or older. Among those aged 5-14 years, the reduction in observed relative to predicted notifications for 2020 was greater in males (-30·9% [-24·8 to -36·1]) than females (-24·5% [-18·1 to -29·9]). Among 28 countries with high tuberculosis burden, no association was observed between the stringency of COVID-19 restrictions and the relative difference in observed versus predicted notifications. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that COVID-19 has substantially affected childhood tuberculosis services, with the youngest children most affected. Although children have mostly had fewer severe health consequences from COVID-19 than have adults, they have been disproportionately affected by the effects of the pandemic on tuberculosis care. Observed sex differences suggest that targeted interventions might be required. As countries rebuild health systems following the COVID-19 pandemic, it is crucial that childhood tuberculosis services are placed centrally within national strategic plans. FUNDING: Medical Research Council.

Disruptions to routine childhood vaccinations in low- and middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine childhood vaccinations worldwide with low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) most affected. This study aims to quantify levels of disruption to routine vaccinations in LMICs. Methods: A systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42021286386) was conducted of MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, CINAHL, Scopus and MedRxiv, on the 11th of February 2022. Primary research studies published from January 2020 onwards were included if they reported levels of routine pediatrics vaccinations before and after March 2020. Study appraisal was performed using NHLBI tool for cross-sectional studies. Levels of disruption were summarized using medians and interquartile ranges. Results: A total of 39 cross-sectional studies were identified. These showed an overall relative median decline of -10.8% [interquartile range (IQR) -27.6%, -1.4%] across all vaccines. Upper-middle-income countries (upper-MICs) (-14.3%; IQR -24.3%, -2.4%) and lower-MICs (-18.0%; IQR -48.6%, -4.1%) showed greater declines than low-income countries (-3.1%; IQR -12.8%, 2.9%), as did vaccines administered at birth (-11.8%; IQR -27.7%, -3.5%) compared to those given after birth (-8.0%; IQR -28.6%, -0.4%). Declines during the first 3 months of the pandemic (-8.1%; IQR -35.1%, -1.4%) were greater than during the remainder of 2020 (-3.9%; IQR -13.0%, 11.4%) compared to baseline. Conclusion: There has been a decline in routine pediatric vaccination, greatest in MICs and for vaccines administered at birth. Nations must prioritize catch-up programs alongside public health messaging to encourage vaccine uptake. Systematic review registration: Identifier: CRD42021286386.

Xpert Ultra stool testing to diagnose tuberculosis in children in Ethiopia and Indonesia: a model-based cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The WHO currently recommends stool testing using GeneXpert MTB/Rif (Xpert) for the diagnosis of paediatric tuberculosis (TB). The simple one-step (SOS) stool method enables processing for Xpert testing at the primary healthcare (PHC) level. We modelled the impact and cost-effectiveness of implementing the SOS stool method at PHC for the diagnosis of paediatric TB in Ethiopia and Indonesia, compared with the standard of care. SETTING: All children (age <15 years) presenting with presumptive TB at primary healthcare or hospital level in Ethiopia and Indonesia. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Cost-effectiveness estimated as incremental costs compared with incremental disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) saved. METHODS: Decision tree modelling was used to represent pathways of patient care and referral. We based model parameters on ongoing studies and surveillance, systematic literature review, and expert opinion. We estimated costs using data available publicly and obtained through in-country expert consultations. Health outcomes were based on modelled mortality and discounted life-years lost. RESULTS: The intervention increased the sensitivity of TB diagnosis by 19-25% in both countries leading to a 14-20% relative reduction in mortality. Under the intervention, fewer children seeking care at PHC were referred (or self-referred) to higher levels of care; the number of children initiating anti-TB treatment (ATT) increased by 18-25%; and more children (85%) initiated ATT at PHC level. Costs increased under the intervention compared with a base case using smear microscopy in the standard of care resulting in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of US$132 and US$94 per DALY averted in Ethiopia and Indonesia, respectively. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of 0.5×gross domestic product per capita, the projected probability of the intervention being cost-effective in Ethiopia and Indonesia was 87% and 96%, respectively. The intervention remained cost-effective under sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of the SOS stool method to national algorithms for diagnosing TB in children is likely to be cost-effective in both Ethiopia and Indonesia.

Neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios for adult bacteriologically-confirmed tuberculosis reveals hotspots of underdiagnosis in Blantyre, Malawi.

Local information is needed to guide targeted interventions for respiratory infections such as tuberculosis (TB). Case notification rates (CNRs) are readily available, but systematically underestimate true disease burden in neighbourhoods with high diagnostic access barriers. We explored a novel approach, adjusting CNRs for under-notification (P:N ratio) using neighbourhood-level predictors of TB prevalence-to-notification ratios. We analysed data from 1) a citywide routine TB surveillance system including geolocation, confirmatory mycobacteriology, and clinical and demographic characteristics of all registering TB patients in Blantyre, Malawi during 2015-19, and 2) an adult TB prevalence survey done in 2019. In the prevalence survey, consenting adults from randomly selected households in 72 neighbourhoods had symptom-plus-chest X-ray screening, confirmed with sputum smear microscopy, Xpert MTB/Rif and culture. Bayesian multilevel models were used to estimate adjusted neighbourhood prevalence-to-notification ratios, based on summarised posterior draws from fitted adult bacteriologically-confirmed TB CNRs and prevalence. From 2015-19, adult bacteriologically-confirmed CNRs were 131 (479/371,834), 134 (539/415,226), 114 (519/463,707), 56 (283/517,860) and 46 (258/578,377) per 100,000 adults per annum, and 2019 bacteriologically-confirmed prevalence was 215 (29/13,490) per 100,000 adults. Lower educational achievement by household head and neighbourhood distance to TB clinic was negatively associated with CNRs. The mean neighbourhood P:N ratio was 4.49 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.98-11.91), consistent with underdiagnosis of TB, and was most pronounced in informal peri-urban neighbourhoods. Here we have demonstrated a method for the identification of neighbourhoods with high levels of under-diagnosis of TB without the requirement for a prevalence survey; this is important since prevalence surveys are expensive and logistically challenging. If confirmed, this approach may support more efficient and effective targeting of intensified TB and HIV case-finding interventions aiming to accelerate elimination of urban TB.

The global impact of household contact management for children on multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis cases, deaths, and health-system costs in 2019: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimates suggest that at least 30 000 children develop multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis each year. Despite household contact management (HCM) being widely recommended, it is rarely done. METHODS: We used mathematical modelling to evaluate the potential country-level and global effects and cost-effectiveness of multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis HCM for children younger than 15 years who are living with a person with newly diagnosed multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis. We compared a baseline of no HCM with several HCM strategies and tuberculosis preventive therapy regimens, calculating the effect on multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis cases, deaths, and health-system costs. All HCM strategies involved the screening of children for prevalent tuberculosis disease but with tuberculosis preventive therapy either not given or targeted dependent on age, HIV status, and result of tuberculin skin test. We evaluated the use of fluoroquinolones (ie, levofloxacin and moxifloxacin), delamanid, and bedaquiline as tuberculosis preventive therapy. FINDINGS: Compared with a baseline without HCM, HCM for all adults diagnosed with multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in 2019 would have entailed screening 227 000 children (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 205 000-252 000) younger than 15 years globally, and averted 2350 tuberculosis deaths (1940-2790), costing an additional US$63 million (74-95 million). If all the children within the household who had been in contact with the person with multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis received tuberculosis preventive therapy with levofloxacin, 5620 incident tuberculosis cases (95% UI 4540-6890) and an additional 1240 deaths (970-1540) would have been prevented. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were lower than half of per-capita gross domestic product for most interventions in most countries. Targeting only children younger than 5 years and those living with HIV reduced the number of incident cases and deaths averted, but improved cost-effectiveness. Tuberculosis preventive therapy with delamanid increased the effect, in terms of reduced incidence and mortality, compared with levofloxacin. INTERPRETATION: HCM for patients with multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis is cost-effective in most settings and could avert a substantial proportion of multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis cases and deaths in children globally. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.

Addressing the Data Gaps on Child and Adolescent Tuberculosis.

The burden of tuberculosis (TB) among children and young adolescents (<15 years old) is estimated at 1.1 million; however, only 400,000 are treated for TB, indicating a large gap between the number who are cared for and the number estimated to have TB. Accurate data on the burden of pediatric TB is essential to guide action. Despite several improvements in estimating the burden of pediatric TB in the last decade, as well as enhanced data collection efforts, several data gaps remain, both at the global level, but also at the national level where surveillance systems and collaborative research are critical. In this article, we describe recent advances in data collection and burden estimates for TB among children and adolescents, and the remaining gaps. While data collection continues to improve, burden estimates must evolve in parallel, both in terms of their frequency and the methods used. Currently, at the global level, there is a focus on age-disaggregation of TB notifications, the collection of data on TB-HIV, multi-drug resistant (MDR)-TB and treatment outcomes, as well as estimates of the disease burden. Additional data from national surveillance systems or research projects on TB meningitis, as well as other forms of extra-pulmonary TB, would be useful. We must capitalize on the current momentum in child and adolescent TB to close the remaining data gaps for these age groups to better understand the epidemic and further reduce morbidity and mortality due to TB.

TB Hackathon: Development and Comparison of Five Models to Predict Subnational Tuberculosis Prevalence in Pakistan.

Pakistan's national tuberculosis control programme (NTP) is among the many programmes worldwide that value the importance of subnational tuberculosis (TB) burden estimates to support disease control efforts, but do not have reliable estimates. A hackathon was thus organised to solicit the development and comparison of several models for small area estimation of TB. The TB hackathon was launched in April 2019. Participating teams were requested to produce district-level estimates of bacteriologically positive TB prevalence among adults (over 15 years of age) for 2018. The NTP provided case-based data from their 2010-2011 TB prevalence survey, along with data relating to TB screening, testing and treatment for the period between 2010-2011 and 2018. Five teams submitted district-level TB prevalence estimates, methodological details and programming code. Although the geographical distribution of TB prevalence varied considerably across models, we identified several districts with consistently low notification-to-prevalence ratios. The hackathon highlighted the challenges of generating granular spatiotemporal TB prevalence forecasts based on a cross-sectional prevalence survey data and other data sources. Nevertheless, it provided a range of approaches to subnational disease modelling. The NTP's use and plans for these outputs shows that, limitations notwithstanding, they can be valuable for programme planning.