Estimating risk to prevent damage: predicting and preventing coypu (Myocastor coypus) damage to transport infrastructure.

BACKGROUND: A major impact of invasive Myocastor coypus in their introduction range is the collapse of riverbanks and nearby infrastructure, such as railway lines, due to the species' burrowing activities. Because widespread implementation of preventive measures along watercourses is unfeasible, identifying susceptible areas is key to guide targeted management actions. This study used species-habitat models to: (i) identify local environmental features of the railway line/watercourse intersections (RLWIs) that make them particularly susceptible to coypu damage, and (ii) predict species occurrence probability over a wide lowland-hilly area of northern Italy (Lombardy) to identify priority areas for monitoring. RESULTS: Local-scale models identified that the RLWIs most susceptible to burrowing were those surrounded by arable land with interspersed hedgerows locally characterized by high herbaceous vegetation and clay soil. In urbanized areas and areas of intensive agriculture, coypu dens were generally located significantly closer to the railway, increasing the risk of collapse. A landscape-scale species distribution model showed that lowland areas along major rivers and lake shores, and also agricultural areas with a dense minor hydrographic network, particularly in the southeast of the study area, are more likely to be occupied by coypu. CONCLUSION: Local-scale models showed that specific environmental characteristics increase the risk of burrowing near RLWIs. The landscape-scale model allowed us to predict which areas require thorough monitoring of RLWIs to search for such local characteristics to implement preventive management measures. The proposed model-based framework can be applied to any geographical context to predict and prevent coypu damage. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Main roads and land cover shaped the genetic structure of a Mediterranean island wild boar population.

Patterns of genetic differentiation within and among animal populations might vary due to the simple effect of distance or landscape features hindering gene flow. An assessment of how landscape connectivity affects gene flow can help guide management, especially in fragmented landscapes. Our objective was to analyze population genetic structure and landscape genetics of the native wild boar (Sus scrofa meridionalis) population inhabiting the island of Sardinia (Italy), and test for the existence of Isolation-by-Distance (IBD), Isolation-by-Barrier (IBB), and Isolation-by-Resistance (IBR). A total of 393 Sardinian wild boar samples were analyzed using a set of 16 microsatellite loci. Signals of genetic introgression from introduced non-native wild boars or from domestic pigs were revealed by a Bayesian cluster analysis including 250 reference individuals belonging to European wild populations and domestic breeds. After removal of introgressed individuals, genetic structure in the population was investigated by different statistical approaches, supporting a partition into five discrete subpopulations, corresponding to five geographic areas on the island: north-west (NW), central west (CW), south-west (SW), north-central east (NCE), and south-east (SE). To test the IBD, IBB, and IBR hypotheses, we optimized resistance surfaces using genetic algorithms and linear mixed-effects models with a maximum likelihood population effects parameterization. Landscape genetics analyses revealed that genetic discontinuities between subpopulations can be explained by landscape elements, suggesting that main roads, urban settings, and intensively cultivated areas are hampering gene flow (and thus individual movements) within the Sardinian wild boar population. Our results reveal how human-transformed landscapes can affect genetic connectivity even in a large-sized and highly mobile mammal such as the wild boar, and provide crucial information to manage the spread of pathogens, including the African Swine Fever virus, endemic in Sardinia.

Quantitative selection of focal birds and mammals in higher-tier risk assessment: An application to rice cultivations.

European Pesticide Registration requires a risk assessment (RA) for nontarget organisms according to EU Regulation. European Authorities have developed Guidance Documents (GDs) for RA considering exposure scenarios for the required organisms typical for terrestrial crops. The "Birds and Mammals EFSA GD" allows using multiple sources of information to extract information on species frequency needed in identifying focal species for higher-tier RA. We developed an analytical framework to calculate species frequency according to availability of species and habitat quantitative data. Since the exposure scenarios reported in the EFSA GD are inconsistent for rice, we tested the method on birds and mammals in a portion of the largest rice-cultivated area of Europe, the Italian Po floodplain. We derived three lists of focal species: (a) an expert-based list based on land-use data only, which can be useful for a preliminary exploration of potential candidate species; (b) a list derived from the interpolation of species data only, which reflects actual species frequency in rice fields; and (c) a list obtained by a species distribution model based on species monitoring and land-use data, which account for species selectivity for rice crops and are transferable to other contexts. Focal species were identified for crop-specific diet-foraging guilds, to build specific exposure scenarios to assess the risk from pesticides application in rice fields. The partial differences between our lists and those previously proposed highlight the need for identifying national lists, which can vary according to study area, biogeographic region and exposure scenarios. The application of the proposed method in European rice-producing countries should lead to crop-specific lists, which could then be integrated to obtain a flexible European list applicable to higher-tier RA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1020-1034. © 2021 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Hide-and-Seek in a Highly Human-Dominated Landscape: Insights into Movement Patterns and Selection of Resting Sites of Rehabilitated Wolves (Canis lupus) in Northern Italy.

Assessing the behavioural responses of floating wolves to human presence is crucial for investigating the chance of wolf populations expanding into urbanised landscapes. We studied the movement ecology of three rehabilitated wolves in a highly human-dominated landscape (Po Plain, Italy) to explore wolf's plasticity amid widespread human pressure. To reach this aim, we estimated individual 95% utilisation distributions (UD) after the release and inspected both 95% UDs and net squared displacements to identify individual movement patterns; tested for differences in movement patterns during day and night; and analysed the selection of resting sites during dispersal movement in a highly human-altered environment. Both the 95% UDs and step lengths were smaller for wolves settling in suitable areas than for those settling in more urbanised areas. All wolves exhibited strong temporal segregation with humans during all movement phases, particularly while dispersing across highly urbanised areas. Main roads and proximity to built-up areas were shown to limit wolves' dispersal, whereas small-wooded patches that provide shelter during rest facilitated long-distance movements. This study provides important insights into wolf movement and settling in urban and peri-urban areas, providing critical knowledge to promote human-carnivore coexistence.

Species Traits Drive Long-Term Population Trends of Common Breeding Birds in Northern Italy.

Long-term population trends are considerable sources of information to set wildlife conservation priorities and to evaluate the performance of management actions. In addition, trends observed in functional groups (e.g., trophic guilds) can provide the foundation to test specific hypotheses about the drivers of the observed population dynamics. The aims of this study were to assess population trends of breeding birds in Lombardy (N Italy) from 1992 to 2019 and to explore the relationships between trends and species sharing similar ecological and life history traits. Trends were quantified and tested for significance by weighted linear regression models and using yearly population indices (median and 95% confidence interval) predicted through generalized additive models. Results showed that 45% of the species increased, 24% decreased, and 31% showed non-significant trends. Life history traits analyses revealed a general decrease of migrants, of species with short incubation period and of species with high annual fecundity. Ecological traits analyses showed that plant-eaters and species feeding on invertebrates, farmland birds, and ground-nesters declined, while woodland birds increased. Further studies should focus on investigation of the relationship between long-term trends and species traits at large spatial scales, and on quantifying the effects of specific drivers across multiple functional groups.

Combining ensemble models and connectivity analyses to predict wolf expected dispersal routes through a lowland corridor.

The Italian wolf (Canis lupus italicus) population has remained isolated South of the Alps for the last few thousand years. After a strong decline, the species has recolonized the Apennines and the Western Alps, while it is currently struggling to colonize the Eastern Alps. Recently, the species was detected in a lowland park connecting the Northern Apennines to the Central Alps. If the park was able to sustain a net wolf dispersal flow, this could significantly boost the connection with the Eastern Alps and the Dinaric-Balkan population. We investigated the suitability of the park as a functional ecological corridor for the wolf through the unhospitable lowland of Northern Italy. We collected wolf occurrence data in two study areas. We modeled species distribution running a separate ensemble model for each study area and then merging the output of the models to obtain an integrated suitability map. We used this map to identify corridors for the wolf adopting a factorial least-cost path and a cumulative resistant kernel approach. The connectivity models showed that only two corridors exist in the lowland areas between the Northern Apennines and the Central Alps. The Western corridor is a blind route, while the eastern corridor passes through the park and has a continuous course. However, the models also revealed a scarce resilience of corridor connectivity in the passageways between the park and the Apennines and the Prealps, which suggests that urgent management actions are necessary to ensure the future functionality of this important corridor.

Species specialization limits movement ability and shapes ecological networks: the case study of 2 forest mammals.

To counteract the negative effects of forest fragmentation on wildlife, it is crucial to maintain functional ecological networks. We identified the ecological networks for 2 mammals with very different degrees of forest specialization, the European badger Meles meles and the Roe deer Capreolus capreolus, by differentiating 4 agroforestry elements as either nodes or connectivity elements, and by defining the distance that provides the functional connectivity between fragments. Species occurrence data were collected in a wide agroecosystem in northern Italy. To test the role of hedgerows, traditional poplar cultivations, short rotation coppices, and reforestations as ecological network elements for the 2 species we applied the method of simulated species perceptions of the landscape (SSPL), comparing the ability of different SSPLs to explain the observed species distribution. All analyses were repeated considering different scenarios of species movement ability through the matrix. Model outputs seem to show that the specialist and highly mobile Roe deer has the same movement ability throughout the matrix (2 km) as the European badger, a smaller, but generalist species. The ecological network identified for the European badger was widespread throughout the area and was composed of woodlands, poplar cultivations and hedgerows as nodes and short rotation coppices as connectivity elements. Conversely, the ecological network of the Roe deer was mostly limited to the main forest areas and was composed of woodlands, poplar cultivations and reforestations as nodes and short rotation coppices and hedgerows as connectivity elements. The degree of forest specialization strongly affects both species perception of habitat and movement ability throughout the matrix, regardless of species size. This has important implications for species conservation.

Winners and losers: How the elevational range of breeding birds on Alps has varied over the past four decades due to climate and habitat changes.

Climate warming and habitat transformation are widely recognized as worrying threatening factors. Understanding the individual contribution of these two factors to the change of species distribution could be very important in order to effectively counteract the species range contraction, especially in mountains, where alpine species are strongly limited in finding new areas to be colonized at higher elevations. We proposed a method to disentangle the effects of the two drivers of range change for breeding birds in Italian Alps, in the case of co-occurring climate warming and shrub and forest encroachment. For each species, from 1982 to 2017, we related the estimated yearly elevational distribution of birds to the correspondent overall average of the daily minimum temperatures during the breeding season and the estimated amount of shrubs and forest cover. Using a hierarchical partitioning approach, we assessed the net contribution (i.e., without the shared effect) of each driver. Both temperature and shrub and forest cover showed a positive trend along the time series and resulted the most likely causes of the significant elevational displacement for 21 of the 29 investigated birds. While shrub and forest cover was found to be an important driver of the expansion of forest bird range toward higher elevations, the effect of temperature on favouring the colonization of previously climatically unsuitable forests at higher elevations was not negligible. Shrub and forest expansion resulted the main driver of the range contraction for edge and open habitat species, which suffered a distribution shrinkage at their lower elevational boundary. In light of climate warming, these results highlighted how the net range loss for edge and open habitat species, caused by shrub and forest encroachment consequent to land abandonment, should be counteracted by implementing proper conservation management strategies and promoting sustainable economic activities in rangeland areas.