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1.
Chinese Journal of Trauma ; (12): 193-205, 2024.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-1027024

ABSTRACT

Osteoporotic proximal humeral fracture (OPHF) is one of the common osteoporotic fractures in the aged, with an incidence only lower than vertebral compression fracture, hip fracture, and distal radius fracture. OPHF, secondary to osteoporosis and characterized by poor bone quality, comminuted fracture pattern, slow healing, and severely impaired shoulder joint function, poses a big challenge to the current clinical diagnosis and treatment. In the field of diagnosis, treatment, and rehabilitation of OPHF, traditional Chinese and Western medicine have accumulated rich experience and evidence from evidence-based medicine and achieved favorable outcomes. However, there is still a lack of guidance from a relevant consensus as to how to integrate the advantages of the two medical systems and achieve the integrated diagnosis and treatment. To promote the diagnosis and treatment of OPHF with integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine, relevant experts from Orthopedic Expert Committee of Geriatric Branch of Chinese Association of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Youth Osteoporosis Group of Orthopedic Branch of Chinese Medical Association, Osteoporosis Group of Orthopedic Surgeon Branch of Chinese Medical Doctor Association, and Osteoporosis Committee of Shanghai Association of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine have been organized to formulate Expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of osteoporotic proximal humeral fracture with integrated traditional Chinese and Western medicine ( version 2024) by searching related literatures and based on the evidences from evidence-based medicine. This consensus consists of 13 recommendations about the diagnosis, treatment and rehabilitation of OPHF with integrated traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine, aimed at standardizing, systematizing, and personalizing the diagnosis and treatment of OPHF with integrated traditional Chinse and Western medicine to improve the patients ′ function.

2.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-1017996

ABSTRACT

Objective:To study the mechanism of Panax notoginseng in treatment of platelet aggregation based on network pharmacology. Methods:Traditional Chinese medicine systems pharmacology database and analysis platform (TCMSP) was queried to screen the drug components of P. notoginseng, and Swiss Target Prediction was used to predict the target of drug components. The GeneCards database was used to obtain disease targets for platelet aggregation, and Venny 2.1 was used to obtain intersection targets. Protein-protein interaction (PPI) was analyzed with String and network diagram with the Cytoscape. The drug-target-pathway network map was constructed by using the Cytoscape software. Gene ontology (GO) and Kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes (KEGG) were analyzed with the Metascape. Results:Seven active components of P. notoginseng directly acted on 142 disease targets through multiple pathways to treat platelet aggregation. Among them, β-sitosterol, stigmasterol, quercetin, and ginsenoside Rh 2 were core components. Tumor protein p53 (TP53), mitogen-activated protein kinase 1 (MAPK1), JUN, tumor necrosis factor (TNF), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and protein kinase B1 (AKT1) are critical targets. GO enrichment analysis found that biological process (BP) most likely related to cell response to lipids, hormone response, and cell response to nitrogen compounds; Cell components (CC) mainly involved membrane rafts, membrane microregions, pits, and plasma membrane rafts. Molecular functions (MF) mainly involve DNA binding transcription factor binding, transcription factor binding, RNA polymerase Ⅱ specific DNA binding transcription factor binding, etc. KEGG pathway analysis suggested that P. notoginseng was mainly involved in advanced glycation end products-receptor for advanced glycation end products (AGE-RAGE), phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)/Akt, hypoxia inducible factor-1 (HIF-1), TNF, and MAPK. Conclusions:P. notoginseng mainly regulates disease targets such as TP53, MAPK1, JUN, TNF, IL6, and AKT1 in AGE-RAGE, PI3K/AKT, HIF-1, TNF, MAPK, and other signaling pathways, and regulates enzyme activity to treat platelet aggregation.

3.
Chinese Journal of Trauma ; (12): 876-884, 2023.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-1026967

ABSTRACT

Objective:To compare the application effect of remote intelligent rehabilitation system and conventional rehabilitation in rehabilitation of patients with rotator cuff injury following minimally invasive arthroscopic surgery.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was used to analyze the clinical data of 47 patients with rotator cuff injury admitted to Xinhua Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine from January to July 2022, including 18 males and 29 females; aged 45-65 years [(56.7±6.3)years]. All patients underwent minimally invasive arthroscopic surgical repair of rotator cuff rupture. After surgery, 25 patients underwent self-rehabilitation with conventional education (conventional rehabilitation group), and 22 patients underwent systematic rehabilitation with remote intelligent rehabilitation system (remote rehabilitation group). Constant shoulder score, University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA) shoulder score, self-rating anxiety scale (SAS) score, self-rating depression scale (SDS) score and visual analog score (VAS) were compared between the two groups on the day of admission, 4, 8, 12 weeks after surgery and at the last follow-up. Shoulder MRI was applied at 6 weeks after surgery to compare the degree of intra-articular effusion and bone marrow edema between the two groups. The shoulder range of motion of the two groups was compared at 12 weeks after operation. The satisfaction with the rehabilitation of the two groups was compared at the last follow-up.Results:All the patients were followed up for 6-10 months [(8.5±2.2)months]. There was no significant difference in Constant shoulder score, UCLA shoulder score, SAS score, SDS score and VAS between the two groups on the day of admission (all P>0.05). There was no significant difference in Constant score, UCLA score and SAS score between the two groups at 4 weeks after surgery (all P>0.05). The values of SDS score and VAS at 4 weeks after surgery were (31.8±6.6)points and (3.6±1.1)points in the remote rehabilitation group, which were better than those in the conventional rehabilitation group [(40.5±5.6)points and (4.7±1.3)points] (all P<0.05). The values of Constant score, UCLA score, SAS score, SDS score and VAS at 8 weeks after surgery were (62.5±5.5)points, (18.5±3.3)points, (20.5±4.7)points, (22.5±4.6)points and (2.5±0.6)points in the remote rehabilitation group, which were better than those in the conventional rehabilitation group [(41.3±4.7)points, (15.3±3.1)points, (28.5±4.8)points, (38.5±3.7)points and (3.3±1.3)points] ( P<0.05 or 0.01). The values of Constant score, UCLA score, SAS score and SDS score at 12 weeks after surgery were (85.4±6.4)points, (32.2±3.8)points, (13.6±2.8)points and (18.4±3.9)points in the remote rehabilitation group, which were better than those in the conventional rehabilitation group [(60.3±6.7)points, (25.2±4.1)points, (21.5±4.9)points and (26.7±6.6)points] (all P<0.05), while there was no significant difference in VAS between the two groups ( P>0.05). At the last follow-up, there were no significant differences in Constant score, UCLA score, SAS score, SDS score and VAS between the two groups (all P>0.05). MRI of the shoulder joint at 6 weeks after surgery indicated that the degree of intra-articular effusion in the shoulder joint and bone marrow edema of the proximal humerus in the remote rehabilitation group was significantly reduced than that in the conventional rehabilitation group. At 12 weeks after surgery, the remote rehabilitation group had better shoulder range of motion than the conventional rehabilitation group ( P<0.05 or 0.01). At the last follow-up, the satisfaction with the rehabilitation of the remote rehabilitation group was better than that of the conventional rehabilitation group ( P<0.01). Conclusion:For patients with rotator cuff injury who undergo minimally invasive arthroscopic surgery, postoperative application of remote intelligent rehabilitation system, in comparison with the conventional rehabilitation system, can help to facilitate shoulder function recovery, anxiety and depression improvement and pain relief in the early stage, reduce shoulder soft tissue and bone marrow edema of the shoulder, and increase shoulder range of motion and patients′ satisfaction with the rehabilitation.

4.
Chinese Journal of Trauma ; (12): 289-298, 2023.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-992601

ABSTRACT

Periarticular fracture of the shoulder is a common type of fractures in the elderly. Postoperative adverse events such as internal fixation failure, humeral head ischemic necrosis and upper limb dysfunction occur frequently, which seriously endangers the exercise and health of the elderly. Compared with the fracture with normal bone mass, the osteoporotic periarticular fracture of the shoulder is complicated with slow healing and poor rehabilitation, so the clinical management becomes more difficult. At present, there is no targeted guideline or consensus for this type of fracture in China. In such context, experts from Youth Osteoporosis Group of Chinese Orthopedic Association, Orthopedic Expert Committee of Geriatrics Branch of Chinese Association of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Osteoporosis Group of Youth Committee of Chinese Association of Orthopedic Surgeons and Osteoporosis Committee of Shanghai Association of Chinese Integrative Medicine developed the Chinese expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of osteoporotic periarticular fracture of the shoulder in the elderly ( version 2023). Nine recommendations were put forward from the aspects of diagnosis, treatment strategies and rehabilitation of osteoporotic periarticular fracture of the shoulder, hoping to promote the standardized, systematic and personalized diagnosis and treatment concept and improve functional outcomes and quality of life in elderly patients with osteoporotic periarticular fracture of the shoulder.

5.
Chinese Journal of Trauma ; (12): 481-493, 2023.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-992625

ABSTRACT

Chronic refractory wound (CRW) is one of the most challengeable issues in clinic due to complex pathogenesis, long course of disease and poor prognosis. Experts need to conduct systematic summary for the diagnosis and treatment of CRW due to complex pathogenesis and poor prognosis, and standard guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of CRW should be created. The Guideline forthe diagnosis and treatment of chronic refractory wounds in orthopedic trauma patients ( version 2023) was created by the expert group organized by the Chinese Association of Orthopedic Surgeons, Chinese Orthopedic Association, Chinese Society of Traumatology, and Trauma Orthopedics and Multiple Traumatology Group of Emergency Resuscitation Committee of Chinese Medical Doctor Association after the clinical problems were chosen based on demand-driven principles and principles of evidence-based medicine. The guideline systematically elaborated CRW from aspects of the epidemiology, diagnosis, treatment, postoperative management, complication prevention and comorbidity management, and rehabilitation and health education, and 9 recommendations were finally proposed to provide a reliable clinical reference for the diagnosis and treatment of CRW.

6.
Chinese Journal of Orthopaedics ; (12): 1673-1680, 2023.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-1027680

ABSTRACT

Objective:To design and construct a bone nonunion organoid on chip and explore the mechanism of aseptic bone nonunion.Methods:First a semi-open microfluidic chip was designed, on which human bone marrow mesenchymal stromal cells (BMSC), human fetal lung fibroblast 1, (HFL1) and human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVEC) were co-cultured, and a three-dimensional organ on chip system was established. Different proportions of HFL1 and HUVEC were co-cultured with BMSC, which were divided into the control group (HFL1∶HUVEC=1∶1), the fibrosis group (HFL1∶HUVEC=3∶1) and the vascularization group (HFL1∶HUVEC=1∶3). The osteogenic differentiation of BMSC was observed by alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and Alizarin red staining. The transcription level of osteogenic marker genes SP7, RUNX2, ALPL, and BGLAP, and vascularization related genes KDR and VWF were analyzed by qPCR. The expression levels of RUNX2 and ALP were determined by Western Blot. Results:In the co-culture system of BMSCs, HFL1, and HUVECs, BMSCs exhibited normal growth and apparent biomineralization behavior. Endothelial cells were capable of forming structured vascular networks, confirming the successful establishment of the system. Compared to the baseline group, the fibrotic group showed no significant decrease in BMSC osteogenic differentiation. The relative expression levels of the mineralization marker genes ALPL and BGLAP were 0.55±0.19 ( P<0.001) and 0.42±0.27 ( P<0.001), respectively. Vascularization genes KDR and VWF were downregulated, with relative expression levels of 0.49±0.17 ( P<0.001) and 0.49±0.21 ( P<0.001). In contrast, in the vascularized group, BMSC osteogenic differentiation genes SP7, RUNX2, ALPL, and BGLAP were upregulated, with relative expression levels of 2.91±0.52 ( P<0.001), 3.83±1.87 ( P<0.001), 3.22±1.29 ( P<0.001), and 5.21±1.46 ( P<0.001), respectively. Vascularization genes KDR and VWF were also upregulated, with relative expressions of 8.24±2.84 ( P<0.001) and 5.32±1.67 ( P<0.001). Western blot results indicated increased expression of RUNX2 and ALP in the vascularized group and decreased expression in the fibrotic group. Conclusion:The bone nonunion organoid on chip could partially simulate the local microenvironment of bone nonunion. Fibrosis may lead to a significant decrease in bone formation ability and vascularization level, which might be an important reason for the occurrence of aseptic bone nonunion.

7.
Chinese Herbal Medicines ; (4): 383-390, 2023.
Article in English | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-982509

ABSTRACT

Edible bird's nest (EBN) is a kind of natural invigorant with a long history of consumption in Asia, especially in China. EBN is formed by mixing the saliva of swiftlets (Aerodramus) with feathers and other components during the breeding season. Proteins are the most important nutrient in EBN. By studying proteins in EBN, we can not only elucidate their components at the molecular level, but also study their bioactivities. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the proteins in EBN. Previous research on the proteins in EBN was preliminary and cursory, and no one has summarized and analyzed the proteins in EBN and correlated the bioactivities of these proteins with the biological functions of EBN. This article focused on the proteins in EBN, listed the proteins identified in different proteomic studies, and introduced the sources, structures and bioactivities of the most frequently identified proteins, including acidic mammalian chitinase, lysyl oxidase homolog 3, mucin-5AC, ovoinhibitor, nucleobindin-2, calcium-binding protein (MW: 4.5 × 104) and glucose-regulated protein (MW: 7.8 × 104). The properties of these proteins are closely related to the bioactivities of EBN. Therefore, this article can provide inspiration for further research on the efficacy of EBN.

8.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-989273

ABSTRACT

Ischemic cerebrovascular disease (ICVD) is the most common type of nervous system disease in clinical practice in China at present. It is the important leading cause of death after heart disease and tumors. Ischemic cerebrovascular disease has a high rate of occurrence and mortality. It is easy to cause problems such as limb dysfunction, language disorders, nerve dysfunction, etc. It has a great negative effect on the quality of life of patients, and seriously affects the quality of their lives. Although the current research on the treatment of the disease has achieved certain results, single therapies can only treat some key parts of the disease and cannot completely reverse the whole process. At present, thrombolysis, antiplatelet aggregation, degradation of plasma fibrin, anticoagulation, and hemodilution are mainly used in clinical treatment. It is critical to select appropriate treatment methods based on the pathological characteristics of patients to improve efficacy and prognosis. In this review, the research progress in therapies for ischemic cerebrovascular disease was reviewed, both at home and abroad.

9.
Chinese Journal of Trauma ; (12): 23-31, 2022.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-932206

ABSTRACT

Lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) is one of the main complications in patients with traumatic fractures, and for severe patients, the DVT can even affect arterial blood supply, resulting in insufficient limb blood supply. If the thrombus breaks off, pulmonary embolism may occur, with a high mortality. The treatment and rehabilitation strategies of thrombosis in patients with lower extremity fractures have its particularity. DVT in traumatic fractures patients has attracted extensive attention and been largely studied, and the measures for prevention and treatment of DVT are constantly developing. In recent years, a series of thrombosis prevention and treatment guidelines have been updated at home and abroad, but there are still many doubts about the prevention and treatment of DVT in patients with different traumatic fractures. Accordingly, on the basis of summarizing the latest evidence-based medical evidence at home and abroad and the clinical experience of the majority of experts, the authors summarize the clinical treatment and prevention protocols for DVT in patients with traumatic fractures, and make this consensus on the examination and assessment, treatment, prevention and preventive measures for DVT in patients with different fractures so as to provide a practicable approach suitable for China ′s national conditions and improve the prognosis and the life quality of patients.

10.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-21255507

ABSTRACT

The global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has killed almost two million people worldwide and over 400 thousand in the United States (US). As the pandemic evolves, informed policy-making and strategic resource allocation relies on accurate forecasts. To predict the spread of the virus within US counties, we curated an array of county-level demographic and COVID-19-relevant health risk factors. In combination with the county-level case and death numbers curated by John Hopkins university, we developed a forecasting model using deep learning (DL). We implemented an autoencoder-based Seq2Seq model with gated recurrent units (GRUs) in the deep recurrent layers. We trained the model to predict future incident cases, deaths and the reproductive number, R. For most counties, it makes accurate predictions of new incident cases, deaths and R values, up to 30 days in the future. Our framework can also be used to predict other targets that are useful indices for policymaking, for example hospitalization or the occupancy of intensive care units. Our DL framework is publicly available on GitHub and can be adapted for other indices of the COVID-19 spread. We hope that our forecasts and model can help local governments in the continued fight against COVID-19.

11.
Estee Y Cramer; Evan L Ray; Velma K Lopez; Johannes Bracher; Andrea Brennen; Alvaro J Castro Rivadeneira; Aaron Gerding; Tilmann Gneiting; Katie H House; Yuxin Huang; Dasuni Jayawardena; Abdul H Kanji; Ayush Khandelwal; Khoa Le; Anja Muehlemann; Jarad Niemi; Apurv Shah; Ariane Stark; Yijin Wang; Nutcha Wattanachit; Martha W Zorn; Youyang Gu; Sansiddh Jain; Nayana Bannur; Ayush Deva; Mihir Kulkarni; Srujana Merugu; Alpan Raval; Siddhant Shingi; Avtansh Tiwari; Jerome White; Neil F Abernethy; Spencer Woody; Maytal Dahan; Spencer Fox; Kelly Gaither; Michael Lachmann; Lauren Ancel Meyers; James G Scott; Mauricio Tec; Ajitesh Srivastava; Glover E George; Jeffrey C Cegan; Ian D Dettwiller; William P England; Matthew W Farthing; Robert H Hunter; Brandon Lafferty; Igor Linkov; Michael L Mayo; Matthew D Parno; Michael A Rowland; Benjamin D Trump; Yanli Zhang-James; Samuel Chen; Stephen V Faraone; Jonathan Hess; Christopher P Morley; Asif Salekin; Dongliang Wang; Sabrina M Corsetti; Thomas M Baer; Marisa C Eisenberg; Karl Falb; Yitao Huang; Emily T Martin; Ella McCauley; Robert L Myers; Tom Schwarz; Daniel Sheldon; Graham Casey Gibson; Rose Yu; Liyao Gao; Yian Ma; Dongxia Wu; Xifeng Yan; Xiaoyong Jin; Yu-Xiang Wang; YangQuan Chen; Lihong Guo; Yanting Zhao; Quanquan Gu; Jinghui Chen; Lingxiao Wang; Pan Xu; Weitong Zhang; Difan Zou; Hannah Biegel; Joceline Lega; Steve McConnell; VP Nagraj; Stephanie L Guertin; Christopher Hulme-Lowe; Stephen D Turner; Yunfeng Shi; Xuegang Ban; Robert Walraven; Qi-Jun Hong; Stanley Kong; Axel van de Walle; James A Turtle; Michal Ben-Nun; Steven Riley; Pete Riley; Ugur Koyluoglu; David DesRoches; Pedro Forli; Bruce Hamory; Christina Kyriakides; Helen Leis; John Milliken; Michael Moloney; James Morgan; Ninad Nirgudkar; Gokce Ozcan; Noah Piwonka; Matt Ravi; Chris Schrader; Elizabeth Shakhnovich; Daniel Siegel; Ryan Spatz; Chris Stiefeling; Barrie Wilkinson; Alexander Wong; Sean Cavany; Guido Espana; Sean Moore; Rachel Oidtman; Alex Perkins; David Kraus; Andrea Kraus; Zhifeng Gao; Jiang Bian; Wei Cao; Juan Lavista Ferres; Chaozhuo Li; Tie-Yan Liu; Xing Xie; Shun Zhang; Shun Zheng; Alessandro Vespignani; Matteo Chinazzi; Jessica T Davis; Kunpeng Mu; Ana Pastore y Piontti; Xinyue Xiong; Andrew Zheng; Jackie Baek; Vivek Farias; Andreea Georgescu; Retsef Levi; Deeksha Sinha; Joshua Wilde; Georgia Perakis; Mohammed Amine Bennouna; David Nze-Ndong; Divya Singhvi; Ioannis Spantidakis; Leann Thayaparan; Asterios Tsiourvas; Arnab Sarker; Ali Jadbabaie; Devavrat Shah; Nicolas Della Penna; Leo A Celi; Saketh Sundar; Russ Wolfinger; Dave Osthus; Lauren Castro; Geoffrey Fairchild; Isaac Michaud; Dean Karlen; Matt Kinsey; Luke C. Mullany; Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett; Lauren Shin; Katharine Tallaksen; Shelby Wilson; Elizabeth C Lee; Juan Dent; Kyra H Grantz; Alison L Hill; Joshua Kaminsky; Kathryn Kaminsky; Lindsay T Keegan; Stephen A Lauer; Joseph C Lemaitre; Justin Lessler; Hannah R Meredith; Javier Perez-Saez; Sam Shah; Claire P Smith; Shaun A Truelove; Josh Wills; Maximilian Marshall; Lauren Gardner; Kristen Nixon; John C. Burant; Lily Wang; Lei Gao; Zhiling Gu; Myungjin Kim; Xinyi Li; Guannan Wang; Yueying Wang; Shan Yu; Robert C Reiner; Ryan Barber; Emmanuela Gaikedu; Simon Hay; Steve Lim; Chris Murray; David Pigott; Heidi L Gurung; Prasith Baccam; Steven A Stage; Bradley T Suchoski; B. Aditya Prakash; Bijaya Adhikari; Jiaming Cui; Alexander Rodriguez; Anika Tabassum; Jiajia Xie; Pinar Keskinocak; John Asplund; Arden Baxter; Buse Eylul Oruc; Nicoleta Serban; Sercan O Arik; Mike Dusenberry; Arkady Epshteyn; Elli Kanal; Long T Le; Chun-Liang Li; Tomas Pfister; Dario Sava; Rajarishi Sinha; Thomas Tsai; Nate Yoder; Jinsung Yoon; Leyou Zhang; Sam Abbott; Nikos I Bosse; Sebastian Funk; Joel Hellewell; Sophie R Meakin; Katharine Sherratt; Mingyuan Zhou; Rahi Kalantari; Teresa K Yamana; Sen Pei; Jeffrey Shaman; Michael L Li; Dimitris Bertsimas; Omar Skali Lami; Saksham Soni; Hamza Tazi Bouardi; Turgay Ayer; Madeline Adee; Jagpreet Chhatwal; Ozden O Dalgic; Mary A Ladd; Benjamin P Linas; Peter Mueller; Jade Xiao; Yuanjia Wang; Qinxia Wang; Shanghong Xie; Donglin Zeng; Alden Green; Jacob Bien; Logan Brooks; Addison J Hu; Maria Jahja; Daniel McDonald; Balasubramanian Narasimhan; Collin Politsch; Samyak Rajanala; Aaron Rumack; Noah Simon; Ryan J Tibshirani; Rob Tibshirani; Valerie Ventura; Larry Wasserman; Eamon B O'Dea; John M Drake; Robert Pagano; Quoc T Tran; Lam Si Tung Ho; Huong Huynh; Jo W Walker; Rachel B Slayton; Michael A Johansson; Matthew Biggerstaff; Nicholas G Reich.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppmedrxiv-21250974

ABSTRACT

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multi-model ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of different research groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naive baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-week horizon 3-5 times larger than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks. Significance StatementThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the US. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models, and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public health action.

12.
Chinese Journal of Trauma ; (12): 122-128, 2021.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-909842

ABSTRACT

Objective:To investigate the effect of passive motion and immobilization on shoulder function early after arthroscopic repair of rotator cuff tears.Methods:A retrospective case-control study was conducted to analyze the clinical data of 78 patients with rotator cuff tear admitted to Xinhua Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine from January 2016 to December 2017. There were 36 males and 42 females, aged 35-78 years [(62.7±3.2)years]. There were 36 patients with medium-sized tears (1-3 cm), 31 with small tears (<1 cm), and 11 with partial articular supraspinatus tendon avulsion (PASTA). All patients underwent arthroscopic rotator cuff repair. Forty-three patients started rehabilitation exercise immediately after operation (motion group). Thirty-five patients were immobilized with shoulder abduction brace for 6 weeks, and started rehabilitation exercise at week 7 (immobilization group). The range of motion, visual analogue pain score (VAS), simplified shoulder joint function test (SST) and Constant shoulder joint score were compared between the two groups before surgery, 6 weeks, 3 months and 12 months after surgery. The healing results were assessed by ultrasound 12 months after surgery. Complications were observed.Results:All the patients were followed up for 12-16 months [(13.7±1.3)months]. There were 7 patients with shoulder joint stiffness in each group (motion group: 16%, immobilization group: 20%) ( P<0.05). There were no significant differences between the two groups in VAS, SST or Constant score at postoperative 6 weeks, 3 months and 12 months ( P>0.05). The forward flexion and external rotation with the arm at the side in immobilization group was (124.9±12.9)° and 25(20, 30)° at postoperative 6 weeks, significantly improved in motion group [(136.6±16.7)°, 30(25, 40)°] ( P<0.05). There were no significant differences between the two groups in forward flexion and external rotation with the arm at the side at postoperative 3 and 12 months ( P>0.05). There were no significant differences between the two groups in internal rotation at postoperative 6 weeks, 3 months, and 12 months ( P>0.05). All rotator cuffs were healed verified by ultrasound at postoperative 12 months. No infection or implant displacement occurred after operation. Conclusions:For arthroscopic repair of medium-sized tears, small tears and PASTA, early postoperative rehabilitation exercises have advantage in improving range of motion only at early stage when compared to immobilization, which disappears with time. Moreover, the two methods have no significant differences in improving postoperative pain and shoulder function.

13.
Chinese Journal of Trauma ; (12): 301-304, 2021.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-909869

ABSTRACT

The rotator cuff of the elderly always is significantly degenerated and often accompanied by osteoarthritis, muscle weakness and muscle atrophy. Rotator cuff tear is the most common cause of shoulder pain. The incidence of massive rotator cuff tear is high in the elderly. Damaged rotator cuff tissue is difficult to repair with a high retear rate after surgical repair, which seriously reduces the quality of life of patients. Therefore, the authors focus on a brief overview of the characteristics, treatment choices, and rehabilitation exercises of the aged patients with massive rotator cuff tear so as to provide references for treating massive rotator cuff tear in the elderly.

14.
Chinese Journal of Trauma ; (12): 104-110, 2020.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-811515

ABSTRACT

With the spread of novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) in December 2019, the management and rehabilitation of elderly patients with hip fractures and protection of medical staff face new challenges, and need to be adjusted appropriately under this very circumstances. Hip fractures in the elderly account for more than half of osteoporotic fractures. Expert group formulate this consensus so as to make better decision against this epidemic and protect patients' families and medical staff. This consensus elaborates not only epidemic condition of NCP, but also general principles of medical admission, treatment and protection for both medical staff and patients, in order to provide some reference and promote the standardization of clinical diagnosis and treatment of elderly patients with hip fractures under the condition of NCP.

15.
Chinese Journal of Trauma ; (12): 111-116, 2020.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-811516

ABSTRACT

Since December 2019, novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) has been reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, and spreads rapidly to all through Hubei Province and even to the whole country. The virus is 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), never been seen previously in human, but all the population is generally susceptible. The virus spreads through many ways and is highly infectious, which brings great difficulties to the prevention and control of NCP. Based on the needs of orthopedic trauma patients for emergency surgery and review of the latest NCP diagnosis and treatment strategy and the latest principles and principles of evidence-based medicine in traumatic orthopedics, the authors put forward this expert consensus to systematically standardize the clinical pathway and protective measures of emergency surgery for orthopedic trauma patients during prevention and control of NCP and provide reference for the emergency surgical treatment of orthopedic trauma patients in hospitals at all levels.

16.
Chinese Journal of Trauma ; (12): 133-136, 2020.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-811520

ABSTRACT

With aim to reasonably cope with the elderly patients with hip fracture during epidemic of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Professor Su Jiacan and Academician Zhang Yingze organized the "expert consensus on elderly patients with hip fractures under epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia" that for the first time formulated the management strategies for the elderly patients with hip fracture including selection of surgical methods and protective measures for medical staff from perspective of orthopedic surgeons. The authors interpret the clinical guiding value and key points of diagnosis and treatment of the consensus to help clinicians better understand the consensus and strengthen its practical application.

17.
Chinese Critical Care Medicine ; (12): 294-300, 2020.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-866823

ABSTRACT

Objective:To understand the current situation of research in the field of sepsis caused by Gram positive bacteria (G + bacteria) in China, to clarify the research content and analyze its general research direction, so as to find the hot topics of research in recent years. Methods:The literatures in SinoMed related to sepsis caused by G + bacteria and published in Chinese from building database to October 2019 were screened. The distribution and trend of the published year, journals, research institutions and researchers of relevant literature were analyzed, and Ucinet 6.0 software was used to draw the social network graph of the researchers and to analyze their internal relations. The subject words of related literatures were extracted. The relationship among the subject words in related literatures was arranged according to the centrality by NetDraw in Ucinet 6.0 software, the bibliographic information co-occurrence analysis system software (BICOMS2 software) was used to classify the subject words and the visualization matrix was generated. The graph clustering tool software (gCLUTO software) was used to cluster the subject words, and the visualization surface graph was generated to analyze the current research hot spot, research trend and research direction of G + bacteria-induced sepsis. Results:A total of 1 976 literatures about sepsis caused by G + bacteria were retrieved, and 26 literatures in conference summaries, news reports, research information, missing content, or inconsistent with the theme were excluded. Finally, a total of 1 950 literatures were enrolled in final analysis. The number of published literatures analysis showed that from 1979 to 1992, there were few studies about sepsis caused by G + bacteria, which increased geometrically from 2008, and the number of literatures published from 2008 to 2018 was 1 144, accounting for 58.67% (1 144/1 950). From 1979 to 2019, 23 high-yield institutions published more than 5 literatures, of which 6 were institutions with 10 or more literatures, and only one institution with more than 20 literatures. There were only 5 journals with more than 100 articles, 5 381 authors involved in the literatures, but few authors with more than 10 literatures published, and no inter-provincial or inter-municipal cooperation was found. A social network analysis of 103 high-frequency subject words that appeared more than 5 times showed that the study of sepsis caused by G + bacteria mainly focused on "sepsis", including the incidence of sepsis caused by drug resistant Staphylococcus aureus was on the rise, especially in newborns and children with weakened immune systems, the selection of therapeutic drugs gradually developed to glycopeptides with strong anti-drug resistance and synthetic oxazolidinones. The research and development of drugs for the treatment of sepsis caused by G + bacteria might become a new research direction or field in the future. Cluster analysis of 103 high-frequency subject words showed that the research hot spots of G + bacteria-induced sepsis mainly focused on five topics, namely early diagnosis of sepsis; bacterial infection pathway of sepsis, nosocomial infection and bacterial drug resistance; the basis of epidemiological prevention and treatment of sepsis; venous catheter infection-related sepsis; the treatment, nursing and prognosis of patients with sepsis. Conclusion:The studies of sepsis caused by G + bacteria are winning more and more attention, but the resources sharing and academic exchanges among hospitals need to be further improved.

18.
Chinese Journal of Trauma ; (12): 104-110, 2020.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-867678

ABSTRACT

With the spread of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December 2019, the management and rehabilitation of elderly patients with hip fractures and protection of medical staff face new challenges, and need to be adjusted appropriately under this very circumstances. Hip fractures in the elderly account for more than half of osteoporotic fractures. Expert group formulate this consensus to make better decision against this epidemic and protect patients and medical staff. This consensus elaborates not only epidemic condition of COVID-19, but also general principles of medical admission, treatment and protection for both medical staff and patients, so as to provide some reference and promote the standardization of clinical diagnosis and treatment of elderly patients with hip fractures under the condition of COVID-19.

19.
Chinese Journal of Trauma ; (12): 133-136, 2020.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-867681

ABSTRACT

With aim to reasonably cope with the elderly patients with hip fracture during epidemic of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Professor Su Jiacan and Academician Zhang Yingze organized the "expert consensus on diagnosis and treatment of elderly patients with hip fracture under epidemic of corona virus disease 2019" that for the first time formulated the management strategies for the elderly patients with hip fracture including selection of surgical methods and protective measures for medical staff from perspective of orthopedic surgeons. The authors interpret the clinical guiding value and key points of diagnosis and treatment of the consensus to help clinicians better understand the consensus and strengthen its practical application.

20.
Chinese Journal of Trauma ; (12): 111-116, 2020.
Article in Chinese | WPRIM (Western Pacific) | ID: wpr-867685

ABSTRACT

Since December 2019, corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province, and spreads rapidly to all through Hubei Province and even to the whole country. The virus is 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), never been seen previously in human, but all the population is generally susceptible. The virus spreads through many ways and is highly infectious, which brings great difficulties to the prevention and control of COVID-19. Based on the needs of emergency surgery for orthopedic trauma patients and review of the latest diagnosis and treatment strategy of COVID-19 and the latest principles and principles of evidence-based medicine in traumatic orthopedics, the authors put forward this expert consensus to systematically standardize the clinical pathway and protective measures of emergency surgery for orthopedic trauma patients during prevention and control of COVID-19 and provide reference for the emergency surgical treatment of orthopedic trauma patients in hospitals at all levels.

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