Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Chikungunya Incidence in Brazil and the Impact of Social Vulnerability: A Population-Based and Ecological Study.

To assess the temporal and spatial dynamics of chikungunya incidence and its association with social vulnerability indicators in Brazil, an ecological and population-based study was conducted herein, with confirmed cases of chikungunya and based on clinical and clinical-epidemiological criteria from 2017 to 2023. Data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and social vulnerability indicators were extracted from the official platform of the United Nations Development Program and the Social Vulnerability Atlas. Temporal, spatial, and global spatial regression models were employed. The temporal trend showed that in 2017, the incidence increased by 1.9%, and this trend decreased from 2020 to 2021 (-0.93%). The spatial distribution showed heterogeneity and positive spatial autocorrelation (I: 0.71; p < 0.001) in chikungunya cases in Brazil. Also, the high-risk areas for the disease were concentrated in the northeast and north regions. The social vulnerability indicators associated with the outcome were those related to income, education, and housing conditions. Our analyses demonstrate that chikungunya continues to be a serious health concern in Brazil, but specially in the northeast and north regions. Lastly, mapping risk areas can provide evidence for the development of public health strategies and disease control in endemic regions.

Enhancing diagnostic accuracy of multiple myeloma through ML-driven analysis of hematological slides: new dataset and identification model to support hematologists.

Multiple Myeloma (MM) is a hematological malignancy characterized by the clonal proliferation of plasma cells within the bone marrow. Diagnosing MM presents considerable challenges, involving the identification of plasma cells in cytology examinations on hematological slides. At present, this is still a time-consuming manual task and has high labor costs. These challenges have adverse implications, which rely heavily on medical professionals' expertise and experience. To tackle these challenges, we present an investigation using Artificial Intelligence, specifically a Machine Learning analysis of hematological slides with a Deep Neural Network (DNN), to support specialists during the process of diagnosing MM. In this sense, the contribution of this study is twofold: in addition to the trained model to diagnose MM, we also make available to the community a fully-curated hematological slide dataset with thousands of images of plasma cells. Taken together, the setup we established here is a framework that researchers and hospitals with limited resources can promptly use. Our contributions provide practical results that have been directly applied in the public health system in Brazil. Given the open-source nature of the project, we anticipate it will be used and extended to diagnose other malignancies.

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the activities of the Schistosomiasis Control Program in Brazil: is the goal of controlling the disease by 2030 at risk?

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis continues to represent a serious public health problem in Brazil. With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several control strategies were suspended, probably compromising the goals of eradicating the disease in the country. We aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Schistosomiasis Control Program (PCE) actions in all endemic states of Brazil. METHODS: We performed an ecological study using spatial analysis techniques. The PCE variables assessed were the population surveyed, the number of Kato-Katz tests, positive cases of schistosomiasis and the percentage of cases treated between 2015 and 2021. The percent change was calculated to verify if there was an increase or decrease in 2020 and 2021, along with time trend analyses provided by the Joinpoint model. Spatial distribution maps were elaborated considering the percent change. RESULTS: The surveyed population decreased in 2020 (-65.38%) and 2021 (-37.94%) across Brazil. There was a proportional reduction in the number of Kato-Katz tests (2020, -67.48%; 2021, -40.52%), a decrease in the percentage of positive cases (2020, -71.16%; 2021, -40.5%) and a reduction in the percentage of treated cases (2020, -72.09%; 2021, -41.67%). Time trend analyses showed a decreasing trend in most PCE variables. CONCLUSIONS: The PCE activities were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and PCE strategies must be urgently reviewed, focusing on investments in all endemic areas.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Surveillance of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil: An Ecological Study.

The aim of the study was to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the notification of new VL cases in Brazil in 2020. It is an ecological and time-series study (2015-2020) with spatial analysis techniques, whose units of analysis were the 5570 Brazilian municipalities. The study population consisted of all new cases of VL recorded between 2015 and 2020. The P-score was calculated to estimate the percentage variation in new VL cases. Global and local univariate Moran's Indices and retrospective space-time scan statistics were used in spatial and space-time analyses, respectively. It was expected that there would be 3627 new cases of VL in Brazil in 2020, but 1932 cases were reported (-46.73%). All Brazilian regions presented a negative percentage variation in the registration of new VL cases, with the Southeast (-54.70%), North (-49.97%), and Northeast (-44.22%) standing out. There was spatial dependence of the disease nationwide in both periods, before and during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. There was a significant reduction in the incidence of new VL cases in Brazil during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings reinforce the need for better preparedness of the health system, especially in situations of new epidemics.

Potential of NIR spectroscopy for predicting cellulose nanofibril quality in commercial bleached Kraft pulp of Eucalyptus.

Multivariate models were developed to classify cellulose nanofibril (CNF) fibrillation by a quality index from near infrared (NIR) spectra. Commercial pulps of Eucalyptus spp. were used to produce cellulose nanofibrils by means of a fibrillator mill. After each of the five passes through the mill, samples were collected and analyzed for energy consumption and fiber classification. As a standard, pulps were oxidized with TEMPO reagent followed by a single pass through the mill to compare the resulting quality of CNFs produced by each method. NIR spectra of CNFs were associated with quality indices determined by conventional laboratory analyses that included morphology, turbidity, mechanical properties, X-ray diffraction and quality index measurements. Principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) were applied to the spectral and experimental data. Fibrillator milling to obtain CNFs was efficient and resulted in gel formation following the third pass through the mill. NIR spectroscopy combined with PLS-DA was used successfully to create a model to classify quality of CNFs with 96 % certainty in 3 wt% solutions. These findings suggest that NIR spectroscopy holds promise for estimating CNF quality in suspension, particularly in real-time industrial applications where reliable estimates are crucial.

Reduced HIV/AIDS diagnosis rates and increased AIDS mortality due to late diagnosis in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected global health, leading to the suspension of numerous routine healthcare services and posing challenges in efforts to control other diseases, such as HIV/AIDS. This study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV/AIDS diagnoses and mortality rates in Brazil during 2020 and 2021. The percentage change was calculated to determine whether there was an increase or decrease in HIV/AIDS diagnoses and mortality, considering the average numbers from the last 5 years. Additionally, a Joinpoint regression model and an interrupted time series analysis were applied to assess time trends before and after the onset of the pandemic. Lastly, choropleth maps were prepared. We observed a reduction of 22.4% (2020) and 9.8% (2021) in the diagnosis of HIV/AIDS in Brazil. Conversely, there was a significant increase in the percentage change of late diagnosis of AIDS deaths in 2020 (6.9%) and 2021 (13.9%), with some states showing an increase of over 87%. Decreasing time trends in the diagnosis of HIV/AIDS were identified before the pandemic in Brazil, especially in the Southeast and South regions, and then time trends stabilized after including the pandemic years. Along with the dissemination of COVID-19, there was a reduction in the diagnosis of HIV/AIDS and an increase in late diagnosis AIDS deaths, signaling a serious impact of the pandemic on HIV/AIDS control strategies in Brazil. Therefore, we highlight the need for continuous efforts to control both diseases, that is, maintaining regular health services even in crisis situations.

Temporal trend, spatial analysis and spatiotemporal clusters of infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis in Brazil: Time series from 2000 to 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the spatial, temporal and spatial-temporal patterns of infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis in Brazil between the years 2000 and 2020. METHODS: Ecological study of time series, with spatial analysis and spatiotemporal scan of infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis from the records of deaths of the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The rates were smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian model. The Global Moran Index, Global Geary's Contiguity and Getis-Ord General statistics were calculated for spatial autocorrelation assessment. The trends were evaluated by the Joinpoint method. RESULTS: We identified 1183 infant deaths associated with congenital toxoplasmosis in Brazil between 2000 and 2020. The predominant characteristics were male sex (52.1%), post-neonatal age group (51.9%), white race/colour (45.7%), and Southeast region of residence (40.0%). The infant mortality rate associated with congenital toxoplasmosis showed an increasing trend in the country in the years analysed. The spatial analysis showed heterogeneous distribution of mortality in the Brazilian territory and found no evidence of spatial autocorrelation; but spatial-temporal analysis identified three risk clusters involving 703 municipalities. CONCLUSION: Infant mortality associated with congenital toxoplasmosis is a persistent public health problem in Brazil. The risk factors male sex, indigenous race/colour, early neonatal age, North and Northeast regions and risk clusters mapped in this study should be observed for future analysis and planning of health care policies in the control of infant deaths associated with congenital toxoplasmosis. Health surveillance strategies and public health policies need to be strengthened.

Adherence to Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) among Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM) in Portuguese-Speaking Countries.

Strengthening strategies to improve adherence to the use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in key populations constitutes a global health priority to be achieved across countries, especially in countries that share a high flow of people such as Brazil and Portugal. This study aimed to analyze the factors associated with adherence to PrEP among MSM from two Portuguese-speaking countries, highlighting the opportunities and preventive strategies for the global health scenario. This was a cross-sectional analytical online survey conducted from January 2020 to May 2021 with MSM in Brazil and Portugal. For analysis of the data, the Poisson regression model was used to estimate the prevalence ratio (PR) for developing a model to evaluate the associated factors in both countries in a comparative and isolated way. Adherence to PrEP use corresponded to 19.5% (n = 1682) of the overall sample: 18.3% (n = 970) for Brazil and 21.5% (n = 712) for Portugal. Having more than two sex partners in the last 30 days (aPR: 30.87) and routinely undergoing HIV tests (aPR: 26.21) increased the use of this medication. Being an immigrant (PR: 1.36) and knowing the partner's serological status (PR: 1.28) increased adherence to PrEP in Portugal, whereas, in Brazil, it was being an immigrant (PR: 0.83) and not knowing the serological status (PR: 2.24) that promoted the use of this medication. Our findings reinforce the need to invest in programs and strategies to improve access and adherence to PrEP, especially in key populations.

Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) in Sardine (Sardinella brasiliensis): Biomonitoring and Potential Human Health Effects.

Organochloride (OC) and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations were determined in the muscle tissue of fifty sardine samples (Sardinella brasiliensis) sampled off the south-east Brazilian shelf. The aim herein was to investigate OCs and PCBs composition profile, bioaccumulation potential and human risks. The concentrations of 18 organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were below the method limit of quantification in most samples (ca. 94%), with few detected, namely δ-HCH, γ-HCH, Endosulfan I and II, Endosulfan Sulphate, DDE, Dieldrin, Endrin, Endrin Aldeide, Endrin Cetone and Metoxyclor. The median concentration for the Σ41 PCBs was 2.32 ng g-1, ranging from values below the limit of quantification (

Comparison of pre-treatments mediated by endoglucanase and TEMPO oxidation for eco-friendly low-cost energy production of cellulose nanofibrils.

Specific kinds of enzymes have been used as an eco-friendly pre-treatment for mechanical extraction of cellulose nanofibrils (CNFs) from vegetal pulps. Another well-established pre-treatment is the 2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidine 1-oxyl (TEMPO)-mediated oxidation, which has gained considerable attention. Pre-treatments assist in fiber swelling, facilitating mechanical fibrillation, and reducing energy consumption; however, some of these methods are extremely expensive. This work aimed to evaluate the influence of enzymatic pre-treatment with endoglucanase on the energy consumption during mechanical fibrillation of cellulose pulps. Bleached pulps from Eucalyptus sp. and Pinus sp. were pre-treated with endoglucanase enzyme compared to TEMPO-meditated oxidation. Average diameters of CNFs pre-treated with enzymes were close to that found for TEMPO-oxidized nanofibrils (TOCNFs). Results showed that enzymatic pre-treatment did not significantly modify the pulp chemical and morphological characteristics with efficient stabilization of the CNFs suspension at higher supernatant turbidity. Energy consumption of pulps treated with endoglucanase enzymes was lower than that shown by pulps treated with TEMPO, reaching up to 58% of energy savings. The enzyme studied in the pulp treatment showed high efficiency in reducing energy consumption during mechanical fibrillation and production of films with high mechanical quality, being an eco-friendly option for pulp treatment.

Latency to treatment seeking in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder: Results from a large multicenter clinical sample.

This study aimed to identify the factors associated with a delay in treatment-seeking among patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), a disabling neuropsychiatric disorder. To achieve this purpose, we conducted a cross-sectional study examining latency to treatment (LTT) and its associated correlates in 863 patients with OCD. We defined LTT as the time lag between the awareness of discomfort and/or impairment caused by symptoms and the beginning of OCD-specific treatment. To determine the socio-demographic and clinical characteristics associated with LTT, we built an interval-censored survival model to simultaneously assess the relationship between all variables, representing the best fit to our data format. The results of our study showed that approximately one-third of OCD patients sought treatment within two years of symptom awareness, one-third between two and nine years, and one-third after ten or more years. Median LTT was 4.0 years (mean = 7.96, SD = 9.54). Longer LTT was associated with older age, early onset of OCD symptoms, presence of contamination/cleaning symptoms and full-time employment. Shorter LTT was associated with the presence of aggression symptoms and comorbidity with hypochondriasis. The results of our study confirm the understanding that LTT in OCD is influenced by several interdependent variables - some of which are modifiable. Strategies for reducing LTT should focus on older patients, who work in a full-time job, and on individuals with early onset of OCD and contamination/cleaning symptoms.

Magnitude of visceral leishmaniasis and HIV coinfection and association with social determinants of health in the Northeast region of Brazil: a retrospective, spatiotemporal model (2010-2018).

The Northeast region of Brazil (NRB) includes the states with the highest prevalence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), as well as those with significant increases in HIV cases. This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of VL-HIV coinfection and its association with the social determinants of health (SDH) in the NRB. Time trend analysis and Bayesian spatial statistical inferences, Moran's autocorrelation, and retrospective space-time scanning were performed. Spatial regression modelling was used to build an explanatory model for the occurrence of VL-HIV coinfection within NRB. A total of 1550 cases of VL-HIV coinfection were confirmed. We observed a higher prevalence among males (1232; 83%), individuals aged from 20 to 59 years (850; 54.8%), non-white skin color (1,422; 91.7%), and with low education (550; 35.48%). NRB showed an increasing and significant trend in the detection rate of coinfection (APC, 5.3; 95% CI, 1.4 to 9.4). The states of Maranhão and Piauí comprised the high-risk cluster. The SDH that most correlated with the occurrence of coinfection were poor housing, low income, and low education. VL-HIV is dispersed in the NRB but chiefly affects states with greater social vulnerability. Taken together, these findings reinforce the necessity to implement surveillance strategies that will contribute to the reduction of cases in these populations.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis of leprosy in Brazil: An ecological and population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The pandemic caused by COVID-19 has seriously affected global health, resulting in the suspension of many regular health services, making the diagnosis of other infections difficult. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis of leprosy in Brazil during the year 2020. METHODS: We evaluated the monthly incidence of leprosy and calculated the percentage change to verify whether there was an increase or decrease in the number of leprosy cases in 2020, considering the monthly average of cases over the previous 5 years. We used interrupted time series analysis to assess the trend in the diagnosis of leprosy before and after the start of COVID-19 in Brazil and prepared spatial distribution maps, considering the percentage variation in each state. FINDINGS: We verified a reduction of 41.4% of leprosy cases in Brazil in 2020. Likewise, there was a reduction of leprosy notifications in children under 15 years-old (-56.82%). Conversely, the diagnosis of multibacillary leprosy increased (8.1%). There was a decreasing trend in the leprosy incidence in the general population between 2015 and 2020 in Brazil. Spatial distribution maps depicted a reduction of up to 100% in new cases of leprosy in some states. INTERPRETATION: Along with COVID-19 spread there was a reduction in leprosy diagnosis in the general population and children under 15 years-old, and also an increase in multibacillary cases diagnosed, signalling a serious impact of the pandemic on leprosy control strategies in Brazil. FUNDING: This research received no specific grants.

Analysis of Gtpases Rab 5 and Rab 7 expression from macrophages infected with biofilm-producing and non biofilm-producing strains of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis.

Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis is a facultative intracellular pathogen that uses various mechanisms to survive within macrophages. In phagocytosis, this survival can be attributed to the ability to inhibit phagosome-lysosome fusion. In this fusion, some proteins, including Rabs GTPases, are involved in the maturation process and are responsible for regulating membrane vesicle trafficking. Thus, to better understand these mechanisms, the capacity of biofilm-producing and non biofilm-producing strains of Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis for modulating the expression of endosomal proteins GTPases Rab 5 and Rab 7 was evaluated in an in vitro study of infection of goat macrophages. Blood was collected from ten Canindé goats, infected with biofilm-producing and non biofilm-producing strains of C. pseudotuberculosis. Blood cells were separated in colloidal silica-polyvinylpyrrolidone gradients (GE Healthcare®). These cells were maintained at 37 °C, with 5% of CO2. After differentiation, macrophages were infected with the mentioned strains. The bacterial pellets were marked with Rab 5 and Rab 7 antibodies, and their expression was observed by flow cytometry. Both strains of C. pseudotuberculosis (biofilm-producing and non biofilm-producing) were observed to be capable of altering the expression of Rab proteins in macrophages cultivated in vitro. Macrophages from the animals infected with the biofilm-producing strain had an increase in the expression of Rab 5 protein, mainly when these macrophages were treated with the non biofilm-producing strain. The same mechanism was shown to function with Rab 7 protein, however at a lower intensity of expression when compared with Rab 5.

Risk clusters of Schistosoma mansoni infection in an endemic state of Brazil: space-time modelling and association with socio-economic and environmental factors.

BACKGROUND: We analysed the spatial distribution and the socio-economic and environmental factors (SEFs) associated with Schistosoma mansoni infection in the state of Alagoas, an important tourist area in northeastern Brazil. METHODS: We conducted an ecological time-series study (2007-2016) on schistosomiasis cases and SEFs. We evaluated the temporal trends of schistosomiasis cases (annual percentage change [APC]) and their correlation with SEFs. Spatial analysis maps were built using QGIS and TerraView software. RESULTS: We observed that 4.9% of the municipalities had a high prevalence of S. mansoni infection and were located mainly in the coastal strip of Alagoas state. The positivity rate for schistosomiasis decreased during the period (8.1% in 2007 to 4.9% in 2016; APC=-5.71). There was a reduction in the number of tests performed (APC=-5.05). There was a negative correlation between S. mansoni infection and the municipal human development index (ρ=-0.34) and schooling rate (ρ=-0.24). The main species of snail was Biomphalaria glabrata (94.79%), but Biomphalaria straminea showed a higher percentage of S. mansoni detection (10.11%). Lastly, Biomphalaria tenagophila specimens were identified for the first time in Alagoas (n=28). CONCLUSIONS: Despite a reduction in the number of cases, intestinal schistosomiasis still represents a serious public health concern in Alagoas. It urgently requires planning and improvements in diagnosis, prevention programs and the state's socio-economic indicators.

Basic and associated causes of schistosomiasis-related mortality in Brazil: A population-based study and a 20-year time series of a disease still neglected.

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis is a persistent public health problem in Brazil. Regardless advances in diagnosis and mass treatment, schistosomiasis has a severe impact on morbimortality in the country and remains a neglected tropical disease. Herein, we assessed the basic and associated causes of schistosomiasis-related deaths and the temporal and spatial patterns of mortality from the disease in Brazil between 1999 and 2018. METHODS: We conducted an ecological and time series study. The segmented log-linear regression model was applied to assess time trends, considering all deaths recorded in the category B65/ICD-10. Additionally, we elaborated maps of mortality rates from schistosomiasis in Brazil. RESULTS: A total of 4168 schistosomiasis-related deaths were recorded in Brazil in this period, as an associated cause. Time trend analysis revealed an increase in the average age of deaths from schistosomiasis (annual percentage change (APC) = 0.84), and stable trend in Brazil (APC = 0.31). Concerning schistosomiasis-related deaths, we observed disorders related to the digestive system, liver diseases, septicemias, and chronic diseases. Surprisingly, there were deaths caused by non-endemic Schistosoma species in Brazil. Also, municipalities from non-endemic areas in Brazil presented schistosomiasis-related deaths. CONCLUSION: Altogether, our analyses demonstrated that schistosomiasis remains a significant cause of death in Brazil, and it is increasing in some areas, especially in the Northeast region. Additionally, women and the elderly showed a stable time trend of deaths. Thereby, it urgently requires improvements in the control programs strategies, in the sense of an effective reduction in cases and deaths from the disease in Brazil.

Spatiotemporal Pattern of COVID-19-Related Mortality during the First Year of the Pandemic in Brazil: A Population-based Study in a Region of High Social Vulnerability.

Currently, the world is facing a severe pandemic caused by the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Although the WHO has recommended preventive measures to limit its spread, Brazil has neglected most of these recommendations, and consequently, our country has the second largest number of deaths from COVID-19 worldwide. In addition, recent studies have shown the relationship between socioeconomic inequalities and the risk of severe COVID-19 infection. Herein, we aimed to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of mortality and lethality rates of COVID-19 in a region of high social vulnerability in Brazil (Northeast region) during the first year of the pandemic. A segmented log-linear regression model was applied to assess temporal trends of mortality and case fatality rate (CFR) and according to the social vulnerability index (SVI). The Local Empirical Bayesian Estimator and Global Moran Index were used for spatial analysis. We conducted a retrospective space-time scan to map clusters at high risk of death from COVID-19. A total of 66,358 COVID-19-related deaths were reported during this period. The mortality rate was 116.2/100,000 inhabitants, and the CFR was 2.3%. Nevertheless, CFR was > 7.5% in 27 municipalities (1.5%). We observed an increasing trend of deaths in this region (AMCP = 18.2; P = 0.001). Also, increasing trends were observed in municipalities with high (N = 859) and very high SVI (N = 587). We identified two significant spatiotemporal clusters of deaths by COVID-19 in this Brazilian region (P = 0.001), and most high-risk municipalities were on the coastal strip of the region. Taken together, our analyses demonstrate that the pandemic has been responsible for several deaths in Northeast Brazil, with clusters at high risk of mortality mainly in municipalities on the coastline and those with high SVI.

High-risk transmission clusters of leprosy in an endemic area in the Northeastern Brazil: A retrospective spatiotemporal modelling (2001-2019).

OBJECTIVES: To analyse and map the leprosy risk areas in the state of Alagoas, an endemic region in the Northeastern Brazil, between 2001 and 2019. METHODS: Ecological and time series study, using spatial analysis techniques. First, we analyse the epidemiological aspects of leprosy cases, using the data available in the Notifiable Diseases Information System; then, we used the segmented log-linear regression model to assess time trends. Spatial distribution was analysed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Estimator and by calculating the Global and Local Moran Index. Finally, spatiotemporal clusters were identified through scanning statistics, using the Kulldorf method of retrospective analysis. RESULTS: We observed that Alagoas showed an average new case detection rate of 14.43/100,000 inhabitants between 2001 and 2019, being classified as highly endemic. The area of highest risk was the 9th health region (state hinterland), with increasing time trend (Annual Percentage Change/APC = 7.2; p-value < 0.05). Several clusters of high risk of leprosy transmission were verified in Alagoas, including the state capital and hinterland municipalities. CONCLUSIONS: Our data indicate that active M. leprae transmission persists in Alagoas; that diagnosis is delayed and that there are high-risk areas, especially in inland municipalities.

Population-based, spatiotemporal modeling of social risk factors and mortality from schistosomiasis in Brazil between 1999 and 2018.

Schistosomiasis remains a significant public health concern in Brazil. To identify areas at, and social determinants of health (SDH) associated with, high-risk for schistosomiasis-related mortality from Brazil, we conducted a spatial and spatiotemporal modeling assessing all deaths confirmed in Brazil between 1999 and 2018. We used the segmented log-linear regression model to assess temporal trends, and the local empirical Bayesian estimator, the Global and Local Moran Index for spatial analysis. A total of 12,251 schistosomiasis-related deaths were reported in this period. Within the Mortality Information System (SIM) of the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the states of Alagoas (AL), Pernambuco (PE) and Sergipe (SE) recording the highest mortality rates: 2.21, 1.92 and 0.80 deaths/100,000 inhabitants, respectively. Analyses revealed an increase in the mean age of schistosomiasis-related deaths over the time assessed (APC = 0.9; p-value<0.05). Spatial analysis identified a concentration of municipalities presenting high risk of schistosomiasis-related mortality along the coastline of PE and AL. Similarly, we identified the formation of high space-time clusters in municipalities in the states of PE, AL, SE, Bahia, and Minas Gerais. Finally, mortality rates showed a significant correlation with 96.96% of SDH indices. The data reveal additional important changes in schistosomiasis-related deaths in Brazil between 1999 and 2018, such as a slow reduction among males (unlike females that displayed no change). Regardless, our analyses indicates that schistosomiasis continues to have the greatest detrimental impact in poor regions of Brazil and suggest the need for enhancement of current control measures to accelerate progress.

Space-time risk cluster of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazilian endemic region with high social vulnerability: An ecological time series study.

BACKGROUND: Despite visceral leishmaniasis (VL) being epidemic in most Brazilian regions, the Northeast region is responsible for the highest morbidity and mortality outcomes within the country. OBJECTIVE: To analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of VL cases to identify the temporal trends and high-risk areas for VL transmission, as well as the association of the disease with social vulnerability in Brazilian Northeast. METHODS: We carried out an ecological time series study employing spatial analysis techniques using all VL confirmed cases of 1,794 municipalities of Brazilian Northeast between the years 2000 to 2017. The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) was used to represent the social vulnerability. Incidence rates were standardized and smoothed by the Local Empirical Bayesian Method. Time trends were examined through segmented linear regression. Spatiotemporal analysis consisted of uni- and bivariate Global and Local Moran indexes and space-time scan statistics. RESULTS: Incidence rate remained stable and ranged from 4.84 to 3.52 cases/100,000 inhabitants. There was higher case prevalence between males (62.71%), children and adolescents (63.27%), non-white (69.75%) and urban residents (62.58%). Increasing trends of new cases were observed among adult male subjects (≥ 40 years old) and urban residents. Importantly, VL incidence showed a direct spatial dependence. Spatial and space-time clusters were identified in sertão and meio-norte sub-regions, overlapping with high social vulnerability areas. CONCLUSIONS: VL is a persistent health issue in Brazilian Northeast and associated with social vulnerability. Space-time clustering of VL cases in socially vulnerable municipalities demands intersectoral public policies of surveillance and control, with focus on reducing inequalities and improving living conditions for regional inhabitants.