ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) prognosis assessment is vital for personalized treatment plans. This study investigates the prognostic value of dynamic changes of tumor markers CEA, CA19-9, CA125, and AFP before and after surgery and constructs prediction models based on these indicators. METHODS: A retrospective clinical study of 2599 CRC patients who underwent radical surgery was conducted. Patients were randomly divided into training (70%) and validation (30%) datasets. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses identified independent prognostic factors, and nomograms were constructed. RESULTS: A total of 2599 CRC patients were included in the study. Patients were divided into training (70%, n = 1819) and validation (30%, n = 780) sets. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses identified age, total number of resected lymph nodes, T stage, N stage, the preoperative and postoperative changes in the levels of CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 as independent prognostic factors. When their postoperative levels are normal, patients with elevated preoperative levels have significantly worse overall survival. However, when the postoperative levels of CEA/CA19-9/CA125 are elevated, whether their preoperative levels are elevated or not has no significance for prognosis. Two nomogram models were developed, and Model I, which included CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 groups, demonstrated the best performance in both training and validation sets. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the significant predictive value of dynamic changes in tumor markers CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 before and after CRC surgery. Incorporating these markers into a nomogram prediction model improves prognostic accuracy, enabling clinicians to better assess patients' conditions and develop personalized treatment plans.