Longitudinal NT-proBNP: Associations With Echocardiographic Changes and Outcomes in Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: The relationship of serial NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) measurements with changes in cardiac features and outcomes in heart failure (HF) remains incompletely understood. We determined whether common clinical covariates impact these relationships. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 2 nationwide observational populations with HF, the relationship of serial NT-proBNP measurements with serial echocardiographic parameters and outcomes was analyzed, further stratified by HF with reduced versus preserved left ventricular ejection fraction, inpatient versus outpatient enrollment, age, obesity, chronic kidney disease, atrial fibrillation, and attainment of ≥50% guideline-recommended doses of renin-angiotensin system inhibitors and ß-blockers. Among 1911 patients (mean±SD age, 65.1±13.4 years; 26.6% women; 62% inpatient and 38% outpatient), NT-proBNP declined overall, with more rapid declines among inpatients, those with obesity, those with atrial fibrillation, and those attaining ≥50% guideline-recommended doses. Each doubling of NT-proBNP was associated with increases in left ventricular volume (by 6.1 mL), E/e' (transmitral to mitral annular early diastolic velocity ratio) (by 1.4 points), left atrial volume (by 3.6 mL), and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (by -2.1%). The effect sizes of these associations were lower among patients with HF with preserved ejection fraction, atrial fibrillation, or advanced age (Pinteraction<0.001). A landmark analysis identified that an SD increase in NT-proBNP over 6 months was associated with a 27% increase in the risk of the composite event of HF hospitalization or all-cause death between 6 months and 2 years (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.27 [95% CI, 1.15-1.40]; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The relationships between NT-proBNP and structural/functional remodeling differed by age, presence of atrial fibrillation, and HF phenotypes. The association of increased NT-proBNP with increased risk of adverse outcomes was consistent in all subgroups.

Urinary Proteomics and Outcomes in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: Although several studies have addressed plasma proteomics in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, limited data are available on the prognostic value of urinary proteomics. The objective of our study was to identify urinary proteins/peptides associated with death and heart failure admission in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. METHODS AND RESULTS: The study population included participants enrolled in TOPCAT (Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure With an Aldosterone Antagonist Trial). The relationship between urine protein levels and the risk of death or heart failure admission was assessed using Cox regression, in both nonadjusted analyses and adjusting for urine creatinine levels, and the MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure) score. A total of 426 (12.4%) TOPCAT participants had urinary protein data and were included. There were 40 urinary proteins/peptides significantly associated with death or heart failure admission in nonadjusted analyses, 21 of which were also significant adjusted analyses. Top proteins in the adjusted analysis included ANGPTL2 (angiopoietin-like protein 2) (hazard ratio [HR], 0.5731 [95% CI, 0.47-0.7]; P=3.13E-05), AMY2A (α amylase 2A) (HR, 0.5496 [95% CI, 0.44-0.69]; P=0.0001), and DNASE1 (deoxyribonuclease-1) (HR, 0.5704 [95% CI, 0.46-0.71]; P=0.0002). Higher urinary levels of proteins involved in fibrosis (collagen VI α-1, collagen XV α-1), metabolism (pancreatic α-amylase 2A/B, mannosidase α class 1A member 1), and inflammation (heat shock protein family D member 1, inducible T cell costimulatory ligand) were associated with a lower risk of death or heart failure admission. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identifies several novel associations between urinary proteins/peptides and outcomes in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Many of these associations are independent of clinical risk scores and may aid in risk stratification in this patient population.

Convalescent Growth Differentiation Factor-15 and Long-Term Outcomes after an Acute Coronary Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) has been shown to be associated with adverse clinical outcomes in patients after an acute coronary syndrome when measured soon after an event. Although dynamic in the acute phase after myocardial injury, GDF-15 has been shown to remain stable during convalescence. In this study, we aimed to assess the value of GDF-15 as a long-term prognostic marker for clinical outcomes when measured in the convalescent phase following an acute coronary syndrome. METHODS: GDF-15 concentrations were measured in 1945 patients who were recruited between 2002 and 2009 to the Coronary Disease Cohort Study. For this analysis, follow-up was curtailed at 10 years and association of GDF-15 with all-cause death, cardiovascular death, recurrent myocardial infarction, and heart failure hospitalizations were assessed with multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. RESULTS: After 10 years of follow-up, there were 648 deaths (348 from cardiovascular causes), 500 admissions for myocardial infarction, and 436 for heart failure. Four-month convalescent GDF-15 demonstrated a robust independent association with all endpoints, which remained after adjustment for Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score and other convalescent biomarkers. When compared to the lowest quartile of GDF-15 concentrations, those in the highest quartile had a 3-fold increased risk of all-cause death. CONCLUSIONS: Convalescent plasma GDF-15 is a strong and independent predictor of 10-year all-cause death, cardiovascular death, recurrent myocardial infarction, and heart failure admission following an acute coronary syndrome. AUSTRALIAN NEW ZEALAND CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRY TRIAL ID: ACTRN12605000431628.

2023 position statement on improving management for patients with heart failure in Aotearoa New Zealand.

Heart failure affects 1-3% of the population and remains a major public health problem, with high rates of hospitalisation and mortality. Health inequities in the incidence of heart failure have widened over the last 13 years in Aotearoa New Zealand. Urgent action is required to address the inequitable burden of heart failure among Maori and Pasifika. Regional and international heart failure guidelines now provide clear and consistent guidance on the contemporary approach to management for patients with heart failure. The purpose of this position statement is to ensure that all people in Aotearoa New Zealand have access to optimal healthcare delivery and pharmacotherapy for contemporary management of heart failure. Three main areas are addressed, including: 1) access to evidence-based pharmacotherapy for patients with heart failure, 2) the importance of early initiation and titration of pharmacotherapy, and 3) the workforce required to ensure timely delivery of heart failure therapies. Implementation of evidence-based healthcare will ensure all patients with heart failure in Aotearoa New Zealand have opportunity for substantial improvement in health.

Sex differences in outcomes after acute coronary syndrome vary with age: a New Zealand national study.

AIMS: This study investigated age-specific sex differences in short- and long-term clinical outcomes following hospitalization for a first-time acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in New Zealand (NZ). METHODS AND RESULTS: Using linked national health datasets, people admitted to hospital for a first-time ACS between January 2010 and December 2016 were included. Analyses were stratified by sex and 10-year age groups. Logistic and Cox regression were used to assess in-hospital death and from discharge the primary outcome of time to first cardiovascular (CV) readmission or death and other secondary outcomes at 30 days and 2 years. Among 63 245 people (mean age 69 years, 40% women), women were older than men at the time of the ACS admission (mean age 73 vs. 66 years), with a higher comorbidity burden. Overall compared with men, women experienced higher rates of unadjusted in-hospital death (10% vs. 7%), 30-day (16% vs. 12%) and 2-year (44% vs. 34%) death, or CV readmission (all P < 0.001). Age group-specific analyses showed sex differences in outcomes varied with age, with younger women (<65 years) at higher risk than men and older women (≥85 years) at lower risk than men: unadjusted hazard ratio of 2-year death or CV readmission for women aged 18-44 years = 1.51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-1.84] and aged ≥85 years = 0.88 (95% CI 0.83-0.93). The increased risk for younger women was no longer significant after multivariable adjustment whereas the increased risk for older men remained. CONCLUSION: Men and women admitted with first-time ACS have differing age and comorbidity profiles, resulting in contrasting age-specific sex differences in the risk of adverse outcomes between the youngest and oldest age groups.

Clinical outcomes of 10 years of cardiac screening in elite New Zealand athletes.

OBJECTIVES: To report findings from the High Performance Sport New Zealand cardiac screening programme, including comparisons between sexes and ethnicities. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: Elite Olympic-sport athletes were screened (2012-2022) with personal/family history, physical examination, resting 12-lead ECG and followed from the date of first screening until July 2022. An audit reviewed screening records, including demographic data, ECGs, follow-up and diagnoses. Flagged/equivocal ECGs were re-reviewed (International Criteria). RESULTS: 2075 ECGs from 1189 athletes (53 % female, mean age 21 years; 83 % European, 9 % Maori, 5 % Pacific Islander, 3 % other) were included. No athletes retired for cardiac reasons; there were no cardiac deaths or major cardiac incidents (mean follow-up from first screening: 6.1 years (range: 0.6-10.9 years)). Diagnoses included Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome (0.7 %) and cardiomyopathies (0.3 %). Overall, 3.5 % of ECGs were abnormal, with ECGs of females more commonly abnormal (4.4 % vs 2.5 %, p = 0.02) and with a higher proportion of ECGs with abnormal T-wave inversion (TWI) (3.1 % vs 0.9 %, p < 0.001) compared to males. Of the abnormal TWI in females (all aged ≥16 years), 47 % was limited to V1-V3 with no other abnormalities. Abnormality rates were similar between Maori, Pacific Islander and European athlete ECGs. CONCLUSIONS: WPW was the most frequent diagnosis, with very little cardiomyopathy found. The proportion of abnormal ECGs was low overall, but higher in females. This was driven by anterior TWI in V1-V3 which was not associated with diagnoses of conditions associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD). There was no difference in the proportion of abnormal ECGs of Maori or Pacific Island athletes compared to European athletes.

Regional Handling and Prognostic Performance of Circulating Insulin-Like Growth Factor Binding Protein-7 in Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Regional handling and the prognostic performance of insulin-like growth factor binding protein (IGFBP)-7, in contrast or in combination with other candidate biomarkers, in chronic heart failure (CHF) remain uncertain. OBJECTIVES: The authors investigated the regional handling of plasma IGFBP-7 and its association with long-term outcomes in CHF in comparison with selected circulating biomarkers. METHODS: Plasma concentrations of IGFBP-7, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin-T, growth differentiation factor-15, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein were measured prospectively in a cohort with CHF (n = 863). The primary outcome was the composite of heart failure (HF) hospitalization or all-cause mortality. In a separate non-HF cohort (n = 66) undergoing cardiac catheterization, transorgan gradients of plasma IGFBP-7 concentrations were evaluated. RESULTS: Among 863 patients (age 69 ± 14 years, 30% female, 36% HF with preserved ejection fraction), IGFBP-7 (median: 121 [IQR: 99-156] ng/mL) related inversely to left ventricular volumes but directly to diastolic function. Above the optimal cutoff, IGFBP-7 ≥110 ng/mL was independently associated with 32% increased hazard of the primary outcome: 1.32 (95% CI: 1.06-1.64). Among the 5 markers, IGFBP-7 had the highest hazard for a proportional increment in plasma concentrations independent of HF phenotype in single- and double-biomarker models, and provided incremental prognostic value beyond clinical predictors plus NT-proBNP, high-sensitivity troponin-T, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (P < 0.05). Assessment of regional concentrations indicated renal secretion of IGFBP-7 in contrast to renal extraction of NT-proBNP, possible cardiac extraction of IGFBP-7 in contrast to secretion of NT-proBNP, and common hepatic extraction of both peptides. CONCLUSIONS: Transorgan regulation of IGFBP-7 is distinct from NT-proBNP. Circulating IGFBP-7 independently predicts adverse outcomes in CHF with a strong prognostic performance when compared with other well-recognized cardiac-specific or noncardiac prognostic markers.

An integrated signature of extracellular matrix proteins and a diastolic function imaging parameter predicts post-MI long-term outcomes.

Background: Patients suffering from acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are at risk of secondary outcomes including major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and heart failure (HF). Comprehensive molecular phenotyping and cardiac imaging during the post-discharge time window may provide cues for risk stratification for the outcomes. Materials and methods: In a prospective AMI cohort in New Zealand (N = 464), we measured plasma proteins and lipids 30 days after hospital discharge and inferred a unified partial correlation network with echocardiographic variables and established clinical biomarkers (creatinine, c-reactive protein, cardiac troponin I and natriuretic peptides). Using a network-based data integration approach (iOmicsPASS+), we identified predictive signatures of long-term secondary outcomes based on plasma protein, lipid, imaging markers and clinical biomarkers and assessed the prognostic potential in an independent cohort from Singapore (N = 190). Results: The post-discharge levels of plasma proteins and lipids showed strong correlations within each molecular type, reflecting concerted homeostatic regulation after primary MI events. However, the two molecular types were largely independent with distinct correlation structures with established prognostic imaging parameters and clinical biomarkers. To deal with massively correlated predictive features, we used iOmicsPASS + to identify subnetwork signatures of 211 and 189 data features (nodes) predictive of MACE and HF events, respectively (160 overlapping). The predictive features were primarily imaging parameters, including left ventricular and atrial parameters, tissue Doppler parameters, and proteins involved in extracellular matrix (ECM) organization, cell differentiation, chemotaxis, and inflammation. The network signatures contained plasma protein pairs with area-under-the-curve (AUC) values up to 0.74 for HF prediction in the validation cohort, but the pair of NT-proBNP and fibulin-3 (EFEMP1) was the best predictor (AUC = 0.80). This suggests that there were a handful of plasma proteins with mechanistic and functional roles in predisposing patients to the secondary outcomes, although they may be weaker prognostic markers than natriuretic peptides individually. Among those, the diastolic function parameter (E/e' - an indicator of left ventricular filling pressure) and two ECM proteins, EFEMP1 and follistatin-like 3 (FSTL3) showed comparable performance to NT-proBNP and outperformed left ventricular measures as benchmark prognostic factors for post-MI HF. Conclusion: Post-discharge levels of E/e', EFEMP1 and FSTL3 are promising complementary markers of secondary adverse outcomes in AMI patients.

Correcting bias in cardiac geometries derived from multimodal images using spatiotemporal mapping.

Cardiovascular imaging studies provide a multitude of structural and functional data to better understand disease mechanisms. While pooling data across studies enables more powerful and broader applications, performing quantitative comparisons across datasets with varying acquisition or analysis methods is problematic due to inherent measurement biases specific to each protocol. We show how dynamic time warping and partial least squares regression can be applied to effectively map between left ventricular geometries derived from different imaging modalities and analysis protocols to account for such differences. To demonstrate this method, paired real-time 3D echocardiography (3DE) and cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) sequences from 138 subjects were used to construct a mapping function between the two modalities to correct for biases in left ventricular clinical cardiac indices, as well as regional shape. Leave-one-out cross-validation revealed a significant reduction in mean bias, narrower limits of agreement, and higher intraclass correlation coefficients for all functional indices between CMR and 3DE geometries after spatiotemporal mapping. Meanwhile, average root mean squared errors between surface coordinates of 3DE and CMR geometries across the cardiac cycle decreased from 7 ± 1 to 4 ± 1 mm for the total study population. Our generalised method for mapping between time-varying cardiac geometries obtained using different acquisition and analysis protocols enables the pooling of data between modalities and the potential for smaller studies to leverage large population databases for quantitative comparisons.

Atrial fibrillation incidence and outcomes in two cohorts of octogenarians: LiLACS NZ.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most common cardiac arrhythmia in the general population, has significant healthcare burden. Little is known about AF in octogenarians. OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence and incidence rate of AF in New Zealand (NZ) octogenarians and the risk of stroke and mortality at 5-year follow-up. DESIGN: Longitudinal Cohort Study. SETTING: Bay of Plenty and Lakes health regions of New Zealand. SUBJECTS: Eight-hundred-seventy-seven (379 indigenous Maori, 498 non-Maori) were included in the analysis. METHODS: AF, stroke/TIA events and relevant co-variates were established annually using self-report and hospital records (and ECG for AF). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to determine the time dependent AF risk of stroke/TIA. RESULTS: AF was present in 21% at baseline (Maori 26%, non-Maori 18%), the prevalence doubled over 5-years (Maori 50%, non-Maori 33%). 5-year AF incidence was 82.6 /1000-person years and at all times AF incidence for Maori was twice that of non-Maori. Five-year stroke/TIA prevalence was 23% (22% in Maori and 24% non- Maori), higher in those with AF than without. AF was not independently associated with 5-year new stroke/TIA; baseline systolic blood pressure was. Mortality was higher for Maori, men, those with AF and CHF and statin use was protective. In summary, AF is more prevalent in indigenous octogenarians and should have an increased focus in health care management. Further research could examine treatment in more detail to facilitate ethnic specific impact and risks and benefits of treating AF in octogenarians.

Effectiveness of a Sodium-Reduction Smartphone App and Reduced-Sodium Salt to Lower Sodium Intake in Adults With Hypertension: Findings From the Salt Alternatives Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Even modest reductions in blood pressure (BP) can have an important impact on population-level morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular disease. There are 2 promising approaches: the SaltSwitch smartphone app, which enables users to scan the bar code of a packaged food using their smartphone camera and receive an immediate, interpretive traffic light nutrition label on-screen alongside a list of healthier, lower-salt options in the same food category; and reduced-sodium salts (RSSs), which are an alternative to regular table salt that are lower in sodium and higher in potassium but have a similar mouthfeel, taste, and flavor. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to determine whether a 12-week intervention with a sodium-reduction package comprising the SaltSwitch smartphone app and an RSS could reduce urinary sodium excretion in adults with high BP. METHODS: A 2-arm parallel randomized controlled trial was conducted in New Zealand (target n=326). Following a 2-week baseline period, adults who owned a smartphone and had high BP (≥140/85 mm Hg) were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to the intervention (SaltSwitch smartphone app + RSS) or control (generic heart-healthy eating information from The Heart Foundation of New Zealand). The primary outcome was 24-hour urinary sodium excretion at 12 weeks estimated via spot urine. Secondary outcomes were urinary potassium excretion, BP, sodium content of food purchases, and intervention use and acceptability. Intervention effects were assessed blinded using intention-to-treat analyses with generalized linear regression adjusting for baseline outcome measures, age, and ethnicity. RESULTS: A total of 168 adults were randomized (n=84, 50% per group) between June 2019 and February 2020. Challenges associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and smartphone technology detrimentally affected recruitment. The adjusted mean difference between groups was 547 (95% CI -331 to 1424) mg for estimated 24-hour urinary sodium excretion, 132 (95% CI -1083 to 1347) mg for urinary potassium excretion, -0.66 (95% CI -3.48 to 2.16) mm Hg for systolic BP, and 73 (95% CI -21 to 168) mg per 100 g for the sodium content of food purchases. Most intervention participants reported using the SaltSwitch app (48/64, 75%) and RSS (60/64, 94%). SaltSwitch was used on 6 shopping occasions, and approximately 1/2 tsp per week of RSS was consumed per household during the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: In this randomized controlled trial of a salt-reduction package, we found no evidence that dietary sodium intake was reduced in adults with high BP. These negative findings may be owing to lower-than-anticipated engagement with the trial intervention package. However, implementation and COVID-19-related challenges meant that the trial was underpowered, and it is possible that a real effect may have been missed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12619000352101; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=377044 and Universal Trial U1111-1225-4471.

Prognostic modelling of clinical outcomes after first-time acute coronary syndrome in New Zealand.

OBJECTIVE: The Multi-Ethnic New Zealand Study of Acute Coronary Syndromes (MENZACS) was established to investigate the drivers of secondary events after first-time acute coronary syndrome (ACS), including addressing inequitable outcomes by ethnicity. Herein, the first clinical outcomes and prognostic modelling approach are reported. METHODS: First, in 28 176 New Zealanders with first-time ACS from a national registry, a clinical summary score for predicting 1-year death/cardiovascular readmission was created using Cox regression of 20 clinical variables. This score was then calculated in the 2015 participant MENZACS study to represent clinical risk. In MENZACS, Cox regression was used to assess N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) as a prognostic marker for death/cardiovascular readmission in four models, adjusting for (1) age and sex; (2) age, sex, ethnicity; (3) clinical summary score; (4) clinical summary score and ethnicity. RESULTS: Of the 2015 MENZACS participants (mean age 61 years, 79% male, 73% European, 14% Maori, 5% Pacific people), 2003 were alive at discharge. Of the 2003, 416 (20.8%) experienced all-cause death/cardiovascular readmission over a median of 3.5 years. In a simple model, age, male sex, Maori ethnicity and NT-proBNP levels were significant predictors of outcome. After adjustment for the clinical summary score, which includes age and sex, NT-proBNP and ethnicity were no longer statistically significant: log2(NT-proBNP) hazard ratio (HR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.98 to 1.08, p=0.305; Maori ethnicity HR 1.26, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.62, p=0.084. CONCLUSIONS: In 2015 patients with first-time ACS, recurrent events were common (20.8%). Increasing NT-proBNP levels and Maori ethnicity were predictors of death/cardiovascular readmission, but not after adjustment for the 20 clinical risk factors represented by the clinical summary score. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12615000676516.

Proteomic Analysis of Effects of Spironolactone in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: The TOPCAT trial (Treatment of Preserved Cardiac Function Heart Failure With an Aldosterone Antagonist Trial) suggested clinical benefits of spironolactone treatment among patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction enrolled in the Americas. However, a comprehensive assessment of biologic pathways impacted by spironolactone therapy in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction has not been performed. METHODS: We conducted aptamer-based proteomic analysis utilizing 5284 modified aptamers to 4928 unique proteins on plasma samples from TOPCAT participants from the Americas (n=164 subjects with paired samples at baseline and 1 year) to identify proteins and pathways impacted by spironolactone therapy in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Mean percentage change from baseline was calculated for each protein. Additionally, we conducted pathway analysis of proteins altered by spironolactone. RESULTS: Spironolactone therapy was associated with proteome-wide significant changes in 7 proteins. Among these, CARD18 (caspase recruitment domain-containing protein 18), PKD2 (polycystin 2), and PSG2 (pregnancy-specific glycoprotein 2) were upregulated, whereas HGF (hepatic growth factor), PLTP (phospholipid transfer protein), IGF2R (insulin growth factor 2 receptor), and SWP70 (switch-associated protein 70) were downregulated. CARD18, a caspase-1 inhibitor, was the most upregulated protein by spironolactone (-0.5% with placebo versus +66.5% with spironolactone, P<0.0001). The top canonical pathways that were significantly associated with spironolactone were apelin signaling, stellate cell activation, glycoprotein 6 signaling, atherosclerosis signaling, liver X receptor activation, and farnesoid X receptor activation. Among the top pathways, collagens were a consistent theme that increased in patients receiving placebo but decreased in patients randomized to spironolactone. CONCLUSIONS: Proteomic analysis in the TOPCAT trial revealed proteins and pathways altered by spironolactone, including the caspase inhibitor CARD18 and multiple pathways that involved collagens. In addition to effects on fibrosis, our studies suggest potential antiapoptotic effects of spironolactone in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction, a hypothesis that merits further exploration.

Associations of Polymorphisms in the Peroxisome Proliferator-Activated Receptor Gamma Coactivator-1 Alpha Gene With Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease: An Individual-Level Meta-Analysis.

Background: The knowledge of factors influencing disease progression in patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) is still relatively limited. One potential pathway is related to peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma coactivator-1 alpha (PPARGC1A), a transcription factor linked to energy metabolism which may play a role in the heart function. Thus, its associations with subsequent CHD events remain unclear. We aimed to investigate the effect of three different SNPs in the PPARGC1A gene on the risk of subsequent CHD in a population with established CHD. Methods: We employed an individual-level meta-analysis using 23 studies from the GENetIcs of sUbSequent Coronary Heart Disease (GENIUS-CHD) consortium, which included participants (n = 80,900) with either acute coronary syndrome, stable CHD, or a mixture of both at baseline. Three variants in the PPARGC1A gene (rs8192678, G482S; rs7672915, intron 2; and rs3755863, T528T) were tested for their associations with subsequent events during the follow-up using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for age and sex. The primary outcome was subsequent CHD death or myocardial infarction (CHD death/myocardial infarction). Stratified analyses of the participant or study characteristics as well as additional analyses for secondary outcomes of specific cardiovascular disease diagnoses and all-cause death were also performed. Results: Meta-analysis revealed no significant association between any of the three variants in the PPARGC1A gene and the primary outcome of CHD death/myocardial infarction among those with established CHD at baseline: rs8192678, hazard ratio (HR): 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.98-1.05 and rs7672915, HR: 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-1.00; rs3755863, HR: 1.02, 95% CI 0.99-1.06. Similarly, no significant associations were observed for any of the secondary outcomes. The results from stratified analyses showed null results, except for significant inverse associations between rs7672915 (intron 2) and the primary outcome among 1) individuals aged ≥65, 2) individuals with renal impairment, and 3) antiplatelet users. Conclusion: We found no clear associations between polymorphisms in the PPARGC1A gene and subsequent CHD events in patients with established CHD at baseline.

Circulating levels and prognostic cut-offs of sST2, hs-cTnT, and NT-proBNP in women vs. men with chronic heart failure.

AIMS: To define plasma concentrations, determinants, and optimal prognostic cut-offs of soluble suppression of tumorigenesis-2 (sST2), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in women and men with chronic heart failure (HF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual data of patients from the Biomarkers In Heart Failure Outpatient Study (BIOS) Consortium with sST2, hs-cTnT, and NT-proBNP measured were analysed. The primary endpoint was a composite of 1 year cardiovascular death and HF hospitalization. The secondary endpoints were 5 year cardiovascular and all-cause death. The cohort included 4540 patients (age 67 ± 12 years, left ventricular ejection fraction 33 ± 13%, 1111 women, 25%). Women showed lower sST2 (24 vs. 27 ng/mL, P < 0.001) and hs-cTnT level (15 vs. 20 ng/L, P < 0.001), and similar concentrations of NT-proBNP (1540 vs. 1505 ng/L, P = 0.408). Although the three biomarkers were confirmed as independent predictors of outcome in both sexes, the optimal prognostic cut-off was lower in women for sST2 (28 vs. 31 ng/mL) and hs-cTnT (22 vs. 25 ng/L), while NT-proBNP cut-off was higher in women (2339 ng/L vs. 2145 ng/L). The use of sex-specific cut-offs improved risk prediction compared with the use of previously standardized prognostic cut-offs and allowed to reclassify the risk of many patients, to a greater extent in women than men, and for hs-cTnT than sST2 or NT-proBNP. Specifically, up to 18% men and up to 57% women were reclassified, by using the sex-specific cut-off of hs-cTnT for the endpoint of 5 year cardiovascular death. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with chronic HF, concentrations of sST2 and hs-cTnT, but not of NT-proBNP, are lower in women. Lower sST2 and hs-cTnT and higher NT-proBNP cut-offs for risk stratification could be used in women.

Relationship Between Soluble Transferrin Receptor and Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Heart Failure According to Ejection Fraction Phenotype: The New Zealand PEOPLE Study.

BACKGROUND: Iron deficiency (ID) is highly prevalent in patients with heart failure (HF) but its impact on prognosis in HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) remains unclear. We assessed whether ID defined by soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR) criteria is independently associated with all-cause mortality in patients with HFpEF, and evaluated its comparative prognostic performance to ID definitions in common clinical use. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data were analyzed from 788 patients (36% HFpEF) in a prospective multicenter HF cohort study. Baseline plasma samples were analyzed with respect to 4 definitions of ID: sTfR of ≥1.59 mg/L (IDsTfR1), sTfR of ≥1.76 mg/L (IDsTfR2), ferritin of <100 µg/L, or ferritin of 100-300 µg/L + transferrin saturation of <20% (IDFerritin), and transferrin saturation of <20% (IDTsat). In multivariable Cox models IDsTfR2 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-2.75) and IDTsat (HR, 1.69, 95% CI 1.10-2.59) were both independently associated with all-cause mortality in patients with HFpEF, whereas IDsTfR1 (HR 1.41, 95% CI 0.92-2.16) and IDFerritin (HR 1.19, 95% CI 0.77-1.85) were not. On inclusion of patients with HF with reduced EF, IDsTfR1 (HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.13-1.86) gained significance, but IDFerritin (HR 1.21, 95% CI 0.95-1.54) did not. For each pair of definitions intra-patient concordance was approximately 65%. CONCLUSION: ID defined by sTfR criteria is independently associated with all-cause mortality in patients with HFpEF. Poor concordance between ID definitions suggests that iron biomarkers do not reflect the same pathological process in the complex relationship between iron and HF. Therefore, which definition should guide iron replacement needs further evaluation.

Endotrophin, a Collagen VI Formation-Derived Peptide, in Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Endotrophin, a collagen type VI-derived peptide, mediates metabolic dysregulation, inflammation, and fibrosis in animal models, but has not been studied in human heart failure (HF). METHODS: We examined the association between circulating endotrophin and outcomes in participants suffering from HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) enrolled in the TOPCAT trial (n=205). Associations were validated in a participant-level meta-analysis (n=810) that included participants with HFpEF from the PHFS study (United States; n=174), PEOPLE cohort (New Zealand; n=168), a randomized trial of vasodilator therapy (United States; n=45), a cohort from Donostia University Hospital and University of Navarra (Spain; n=171), and the TRAINING-HF trial (Spain; n=47). We also assessed associations in HF with reduced ejection fraction in PHFS (n=1,642). RESULTS: Plasma endotrophin levels at baseline were associated with risk of future death (standardized hazard ratio [HR] = 1.74; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.36-2.24; P<0.001) and death or HF-related hospital admission (DHFA; standardized HR=2.11; 95% CI= 1.67-2.67; P<0.001) in TOPCAT. Endotrophin improved reclassification and discrimination for these outcomes beyond the MAGGIC risk score and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide). Findings were confirmed in the participant-level meta-analysis. In participants with HF with reduced ejection fraction in PHFS, endotrophin levels were associated with death (standardized HR=1.82; 95% CI=1.66-2.00; P<0.001) and DHFA (standardized HR=1.40; 95% CI=1.31-1.50; P<0.001), but the strength of the latter association was substantially lower than for the MAGGIC risk score (standardized HR=1.93; 95% CI=1.76-2.12) and BNP (standardized HR=1.78; 95% CI=1.66-1.92). CONCLUSIONS: Circulating endotrophin levels are independently associated with future poor outcomes in patients with HF, particularly in HFpEF. (Funded by Bristol Myers Squibb; Instituto de Salud Carlos III [Spain] and European Regional Development Fund; European Commission CRUCIAL project; and the U.S. National Institutes of Health National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.).

Predicting cardiovascular disease risk across the atherosclerotic disease continuum.

AIMS: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) guidelines dichotomize populations into primary and secondary prevention. We sought to develop a risk equation for secondary prevention of CVD that complements existing equations for primary prevention of CVD, and to describe the distributions of CVD risk across the population. METHODS AND RESULTS: Adults aged 30-79 years who had routine CVD risk assessment in 2007-16 were identified from a large primary care cohort (PREDICT) with linkage to national and regional datasets. The 5-year risk of developing CVD among people without atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) was calculated using published equations (PREDICT-1°). A new risk equation (PREDICT-2°) was developed from Cox regression models to estimate the 5-year risk of CVD event recurrence among patients with known ASCVD. The outcome for both equations was hospitalization for a CVD event or cardiovascular death. Of the 475 161 patients, 12% (57 061) had ASCVD. For those without ASCVD, median (interquartile range) 5-year risks with the PREDICT-1° score were women 2.2% (1.2-4.2%), men 3.5% (2.0-6.6%), and whole group 2.9% (1.6-5.5%). For those with ASCVD, the 5-year risks with the new PREDICT-2° equation were women 21% (15-33%), men 23% (16-35%), and whole group 22% (16-34%). CONCLUSION: We developed CVD risk scores for people with ASCVD (PREDICT-2°) to complement the PREDICT-1° scores. Median CVD risk is eight-fold higher among those with ASCVD than those without; however, there was overlap and the widest distribution of CVD risk was among people with ASCVD. This study describes a CVD risk continuum and the limitations of a 'one size fits all' approach to assessing risk in people with ASCVD.

Cardiac biomarkers retain prognostic significance in patients with heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

AIMS: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a frequent comorbidity in patients with heart failure (HF). We assessed the influence of COPD on circulating levels and prognostic value of three HF biomarkers: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT), and soluble suppression of tumorigenesis-2 (sST2). METHODS: Individual data from patients with chronic HF, known COPD status, NT-proBNP and hs-TnT values (n = 8088) were analysed. A subgroup (n = 3414) had also sST2 values. RESULTS: Patients had a median age of 66 years (interquartile interval 57-74), 77% were men and 82% had HF with reduced ejection fraction. NT-proBNP, hs-TnT and sST2 were 1207 ng/l (487-2725), 17 ng/l (9-31) and 30 ng/ml (22-44), respectively. Patients with COPD (n = 1249, 15%) had higher NT-proBNP (P = 0.042) and hs-TnT (P < 0.001), but not sST2 (P = 0.165). Over a median 2.0-year follow-up (1.5-2.5), 1717 patients (21%) died, and 1298 (16%) died from cardiovascular causes; 2255 patients (28%) were hospitalized for HF over 1.8 years (0.9-2.1). NT-proBNP, hs-TnT and sST2 predicted the three end points regardless of COPD status. The best cut-offs from receiver-operating characteristics analysis were higher in patients with COPD than in those without. Patients with all three biomarkers higher than or equal to end-point- and COPD-status-specific cut-offs were also those with the worst prognosis. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with HF, those with COPD have higher NT-proBNP and hs-TnT, but not sST2. All these biomarkers yield prognostic significance regardless of the COPD status.