Cohort Differences in Physical Health and Disability in the United States and Europe.

OBJECTIVES: Declines in mortality have historically been associated with improvements in physical health across generations. While life expectancy in most high-income countries continues to increase, there is evidence that younger generations, particularly in the United States, are less healthy than previous generations at the same age. We compared generational trends in physical health in the United States, England, and continental Europe to explore whether other regions have experienced a similar pattern of worsening health across cohorts. METHODS: Using data from nationally representative studies of adults aged ≥50 years from the United States (Health and Retirement Study, n = 26,939), England (English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, n = 14,992) and 11 continental European countries (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, n = 72,595), we estimated differences in the age-adjusted prevalence of self-reported chronic disease and disability and observer-measured health indicators across pseudo-birth cohorts (born <1925, 1925-1935, 1936-1945, 1946-1954, 1955-1959). RESULTS: Age-adjusted prevalence of doctor-diagnosed chronic disease increased across successive cohorts in all regions. Trends in disability prevalence were more regionally varied. Still, in both the United States and Europe, we observed a structural break in disability trends, with declines observed in prewar cohorts slowing, stalling, or reversing for cohorts born since 1945. DISCUSSION: In all regions, we found evidence for worsening health across cohorts, particularly for those born since 1945. While more chronic disease in younger cohorts need not necessarily translate to worse quality of life or higher rates of functional limitation, there is some suggestion that worsening chronic disease morbidity may be spilling over into worsening disability.

An undue emphasis on rural older adults in the Chief Medical Officer's annual report 2023?

The Chief Medical Officer's annual report 2023 presents an incomplete and skewed picture of the geography of older people in England. We show that there are higher absolute numbers of older people in urban areas in England and Wales, in contrast to key messages from the CMO report which suggest greater need in rural areas based on relative metrics. The absolute size of the urban-rural difference in the population of older people is projected to grow by 2043. Older adults in urban areas are much more likely to live in deprived areas than older adults in rural areas. The absolute number and prevalence of older adults in poorer health is also higher in urban areas, leading to greater healthcare needs. Policy-makers need to consider both absolute and relative demographic trends as well as making use of direct measures of health when planning how healthcare services for older adults are distributed geographically in England.

US exceptionalism? International trends in midlife mortality.

BACKGROUND: Rising midlife mortality in the USA has raised concerns, particularly the increase in 'deaths of despair' (due to drugs, alcohol and suicide). Life expectancy is also stalling in other countries such as the UK, but how trends in midlife mortality are evolving outside the USA is less understood. We provide a synthesis of cause-specific mortality trends in midlife (25-64 years of age) for the USA and the UK as well as other high-income and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. METHODS: We document trends in midlife mortality in the USA, UK and a group of 13 high-income countries in Western Europe, Australia, Canada and Japan, as well as seven CEE countries from 1990 to 2019. We use annual mortality data from the World Health Organization Mortality Database to analyse sex- and age-specific (25-44, 45-54 and 55-64 years) age-standardized death rates across 15 major cause-of-death categories. RESULTS: US midlife mortality rates have worsened since 1990 for several causes of death including drug-related, alcohol-related, suicide, metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases, respiratory diseases and infectious/parasitic diseases. Deaths due to homicide, transport accidents and cardiovascular diseases have declined since 1990 but saw recent increases or stalling of improvements. Midlife mortality also increased in the UK for people aged 45-54 year and in Canada, Poland and Sweden among for those aged 25-44 years. CONCLUSIONS: The USA is increasingly falling behind not only high-income, but also CEE countries, some of which were heavily impacted by the post-socialist mortality crisis of the 1990s. Although levels of midlife mortality in the UK are substantially lower than those in the USA overall, there are signs that UK midlife mortality is worsening relative to that in Western Europe.

Generational differences in physical health and disability in the United States and Europe.

Objectives: Declines in mortality have typically been associated with improvements in physical health across generations. While life expectancy in most high-income countries continues to increase, there is evidence that younger generations, particularly in the United States (US), are less healthy than previous generations at the same age. We compared generational trends in physical health in the US, England, and continental Europe to explore whether other regions have experienced a similar pattern of worsening health across cohorts. Methods: Using data from nationally representative studies of adults aged ≥50 years from the US (Health and Retirement Study, n=26,939), England (English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, n=14,992) and 11 continental European countries (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, n=72,595), we estimated differences in the age-adjusted prevalence of self-reported chronic disease and disability and observer-measured health indicators across pseudo-birth cohorts (born <1925, 1925-1935, 1936-1945, 1946-1954, 1955-1959). Results: Age-adjusted prevalence of doctor-diagnosed chronic disease increased across cohorts in all regions. Trends in disability prevalence were more regionally varied. Still, in both the US and Europe, we observed a structural break in disability trends, with declines observed in pre-war cohorts slowing, stalling, or reversing for cohorts born since 1945. Discussion: In all regions, we found evidence for worsening health across cohorts, particularly for those born since 1945. While more chronic disease in younger cohorts need not necessarily translate to worse quality of life or higher rates of functional limitation, there is some suggestion that worsening chronic disease morbidity may be spilling over into worsening disability.

BugSigDB captures patterns of differential abundance across a broad range of host-associated microbial signatures.

The literature of human and other host-associated microbiome studies is expanding rapidly, but systematic comparisons among published results of host-associated microbiome signatures of differential abundance remain difficult. We present BugSigDB, a community-editable database of manually curated microbial signatures from published differential abundance studies accompanied by information on study geography, health outcomes, host body site and experimental, epidemiological and statistical methods using controlled vocabulary. The initial release of the database contains >2,500 manually curated signatures from >600 published studies on three host species, enabling high-throughput analysis of signature similarity, taxon enrichment, co-occurrence and coexclusion and consensus signatures. These data allow assessment of microbiome differential abundance within and across experimental conditions, environments or body sites. Database-wide analysis reveals experimental conditions with the highest level of consistency in signatures reported by independent studies and identifies commonalities among disease-associated signatures, including frequent introgression of oral pathobionts into the gut.

Comparing trends in mid-life 'deaths of despair' in the USA, Canada and UK, 2001-2019: is the USA an anomaly?

OBJECTIVES: In recent years, 'deaths of despair' due to drugs, alcohol and suicide have contributed to rising mid-life mortality in the USA. We examine whether despair-related deaths and mid-life mortality trends are also changing in peer countries, the UK and Canada. DESIGN: Descriptive analysis of population mortality rates. SETTING: The USA, UK (and constituent nations England and Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and Canada, 2001-2019. PARTICIPANTS: Full population aged 35-64 years. OUTCOME MEASURES: We compared all-cause and 'despair'-related mortality trends at mid-life across countries using publicly available mortality data, stratified by three age groups (35-44, 45-54 and 55-64 years) and by sex. We examined trends in all-cause mortality and mortality by causes categorised as (1) suicides, (2) alcohol-specific deaths and (3) drug-related deaths. We employ several descriptive approaches to visually inspect age, period and cohort trends in these causes of death. RESULTS: The USA and Scotland both saw large relative increases and high absolute levels of drug-related deaths. The rest of the UK and Canada saw relative increases but much lower absolute levels in comparison. Alcohol-specific deaths showed less consistent trends that did not track other 'despair' causes, with older groups in Scotland seeing steep declines over time. Suicide deaths trended slowly upward in most countries. CONCLUSIONS: In the UK, Scotland has suffered increases in drug-related mortality comparable with the USA, while Canada and other UK constituent nations did not see dramatic increases. Alcohol-specific and suicide mortalities generally follow different patterns to drug-related deaths across countries and over time, questioning the utility of a cohesive 'deaths of despair' narrative.

What Were the Information Voids? A Qualitative Analysis of Questions Asked by Dear Pandemic Readers between August 2020-August 2021.

In the current infodemic, how individuals receive information (channel), who it is coming from (source), and how it is framed can have an important effect on COVID-19 related mitigation behaviors. In light of these challenges presented by the infodemic, Dear Pandemic (DP) was created to directly address persistent questions related to COVID-19 and other health topics in the online environment. This is a qualitative analysis of 3806 questions that were submitted by DP readers to a question box on the Dear Pandemic website between August 30, 2020 and August 29, 2021. Analyses resulted in four themes: the need for clarification of other sources; lack of trust in information; recognition of possible misinformation; and questions on personal decision-making. Each theme reflects an unmet informational need of Dear Pandemic readers, which may be reflective of the broader informational gaps in our science communication efforts.This study highlights the role of an ad hoc risk communication platform in the current environment and uses questions submitted to the Dear Pandemic question box to identify informational needs of DP readers over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings may help clarify how organizations addressing health misinformation in the digital space can contribute to timely, responsive science communication and improve future communication efforts.

Biological expressions of early life trauma in the immune system of older adults.

BACKGROUND: Poor immune function is associated with increased risk for a number of age-related diseases, however, little is known about the impact of early life trauma on immune function in late-life. METHODS: Using nationally representative data from the Health and Retirement Study (n = 5,823), we examined the association between experiencing parental/caregiver death or separation before age 16 and four indicators of immune function in late-life: C-reactive Protein (CRP), Interleukin-6 (IL-6), soluble Tumor Necrosis Factor (sTNFR), and Immunoglobulin G (IgG) response to cytomegalovirus (CMV). We also examined racial/ethnic differences. FINDINGS: Individuals that identified as racial/ethnic minorities were more likely to experience parental/caregiver loss and parental separation in early life compared to Non-Hispanic Whites, and had poorer immune function in late-life. We found consistent associations between experiencing parental/caregiver loss and separation and poor immune function measured by CMV IgG levels and IL-6 across all racial/ethnic subgroups. For example, among Non-Hispanic Blacks, those that experienced parental/caregiver death before age 16 had a 26% increase in CMV IgG antibodies in late-life (ß = 1.26; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.34) compared to a 3% increase in CMV antibodies among Non-Hispanic Whites (ß = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.07) controlling for age, gender, and parental education. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest a durable association between experiencing early life trauma and immune health in late-life, and that structural forces may shape the ways in which these relationships unfold over the life course.

Dear Pandemic: A topic modeling analysis of COVID-19 information needs among readers of an online science communication campaign.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic was accompanied by an "infodemic"-an overwhelming excess of accurate, inaccurate, and uncertain information. The social media-based science communication campaign Dear Pandemic was established to address the COVID-19 infodemic, in part by soliciting submissions from readers to an online question box. Our study characterized the information needs of Dear Pandemic's readers by identifying themes and longitudinal trends among question box submissions. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of questions submitted from August 24, 2020, to August 24, 2021. We used Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic modeling to identify 25 topics among the submissions, then used thematic analysis to interpret the topics based on their top words and submissions. We used t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding to visualize the relationship between topics, and we used generalized additive models to describe trends in topic prevalence over time. RESULTS: We analyzed 3839 submissions, 90% from United States-based readers. We classified the 25 topics into 6 overarching themes: 'Scientific and Medical Basis of COVID-19,' 'COVID-19 Vaccine,' 'COVID-19 Mitigation Strategies,' 'Society and Institutions,' 'Family and Personal Relationships,' and 'Navigating the COVID-19 Infodemic.' Trends in topics about viral variants, vaccination, COVID-19 mitigation strategies, and children aligned with the news cycle and reflected the anticipation of future events. Over time, vaccine-related submissions became increasingly related to those surrounding social interaction. CONCLUSIONS: Question box submissions represented distinct themes that varied in prominence over time. Dear Pandemic's readers sought information that would not only clarify novel scientific concepts, but would also be timely and practical to their personal lives. Our question box format and topic modeling approach offers science communicators a robust methodology for tracking, understanding, and responding to the information needs of online audiences.

Socioeconomic and race/ethnic differences in immunosenescence: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the urgent need to understand variation in immunosenescence at the population-level. Thus far, population patterns of immunosenescence have not well described. METHODS: We characterized measures of immunosenescence from the 2016 Venous Blood Study from the nationally representative U.S Health and Retirement Study (HRS) of individuals ages 50 years and older. RESULTS: Median values of the CD8+:CD4+, EMRA:Naïve CD4+ and EMRA:Naïve CD8+ ratios were higher among older participants and were lower in those with additional educational attainment. Generally, minoritized race and ethnic groups had immune markers suggestive of a more aged immune profile: Hispanics had a CD8+:CD4+ median value of 0.37 (95 % CI: 0.35, 0.39) compared to 0.30 in non-Hispanic Whites (95 % CI: 0.29, 0.31). Non-Hispanic Blacks had the highest median value of the EMRA:Naïve CD4+ ratio (0.08; 95 % CI: 0.07, 0.09) compared to non-Hispanic Whites (0.03; 95 % CI: 0.028, 0.033). In regression analyses, race/ethnicity and education were associated with large differences in the immune ratio measures after adjustment for age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: Lower educational attainment and minoritized racial ethnic status were associated with higher levels of immunosenescence. This population variation may have important implications for both risk of age-related disease and vulnerability to emerging pathogens (e.g., SARS-CoV-2).

Midlife Health in Britain and the US: A comparison of Two Nationally Representative Cohorts.

Background: Older adults in the United States (US) have worse health and wider socioeconomic inequalities in health compared to Britain. Less is known about how health in the two countries compares in midlife, a time of emerging health decline, including inequalities in health. Methods: We compare measures of smoking status, alcohol consumption, obesity, self-rated health, cholesterol, blood pressure, and glycated haemoglobin using population-weighted modified Poisson regression in the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) in Britain (N= 9,665) and the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) in the US (N=12,297), when cohort members were aged 34-46 and 33-43, respectively. We test whether associations vary by early- and mid-life socioeconomic position. Findings: US adults had higher levels of obesity, high blood pressure and high cholesterol. Prevalence of poor self-rated health, heavy drinking, and smoking was worse in Britain. We found smaller socioeconomic inequalities in midlife health in Britain compared to the US. For some outcomes (e.g., smoking), the most socioeconomically advantaged group in the US was healthier than the equivalent group in Britain. For other outcomes (hypertension and cholesterol), the most advantaged US group fared equal to or worse than the most disadvantaged groups in Britain. Interpretation: US adults have worse cardiometabolic health than British counterparts, even in early midlife. The smaller socioeconomic inequalities and better overall health in Britain may reflect differences in access to health care, welfare systems, or other environmental risk factors. Funding: ESRC, UKRI, MRC, NIH, European Research Council, Leverhulme Trust.

Life expectancy changes since COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented rise in mortality that translated into life expectancy losses around the world, with only a few exceptions. We estimate life expectancy changes in 29 countries since 2020 (including most of Europe, the United States and Chile), attribute them to mortality changes by age group and compare them with historic life expectancy shocks. Our results show divergence in mortality impacts of the pandemic in 2021. While countries in western Europe experienced bounce backs from life expectancy losses of 2020, eastern Europe and the United States witnessed sustained and substantial life expectancy deficits. Life expectancy deficits during fall/winter 2021 among people ages 60+ and <60 were negatively correlated with measures of vaccination uptake across countries (r60+ = -0.86; two-tailed P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval, -0.94 to -0.69; r<60 = -0.74; two-tailed P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval, -0.88 to -0.46). In contrast to 2020, the age profile of excess mortality in 2021 was younger, with those in under-80 age groups contributing more to life expectancy losses. However, even in 2021, registered COVID-19 deaths continued to account for most life expectancy losses.

Significant impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on race/ethnic differences in US mortality.

The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic triggered global declines in life expectancy. The United States was hit particularly hard among high-income countries. Early data from the United States showed that these losses varied greatly by race/ethnicity in 2020, with Hispanic and Black Americans suffering much larger losses in life expectancy compared with White people. We add to this research by examining trends in lifespan inequality, average years of life lost, and the contribution of specific causes of death and ages to race/ethnic life-expectancy disparities in the United States from 2010 to 2020. We find that life expectancy in 2020 fell more for Hispanic and Black males (4.5 and 3.6 y, respectively) compared with White males (1.5 y). These drops nearly eliminated the previous life-expectancy advantage for the Hispanic compared with the White population, while dramatically increasing the already large gap in life expectancy between Black and White people. While the drops in life expectancy for the Hispanic population were largely attributable to official COVID-19 deaths, Black Americans saw increases in cardiovascular diseases and "deaths of despair" over this period. In 2020, lifespan inequality increased slightly for Hispanic and White populations but decreased for Black people, reflecting the younger age pattern of COVID-19 deaths for Hispanic people. Overall, the mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic hit race/ethnic minorities particularly hard in the United States, underscoring the importance of the social determinants of health during a public health crisis.

Structural adjustment programmes and infectious disease mortality.

International financial organisations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) play a central role in shaping the developmental trajectories of fiscally distressed countries through their conditional lending schemes, known as 'structural adjustment programmes'. These programmes entail wide-ranging domestic policy reforms that influence local health and welfare systems. Using novel panel data from 187 countries between 1990 and 2017 and an instrumental variable technique, we find that IMF programmes lead to over 70 excess deaths from respiratory diseases and tuberculosis per 100,000 population and that IMF-mandated privatisation reforms lead to over 90 excess deaths per 100,000 population. Thus structural adjustment programmes, as currently designed and implemented, are harmful to population health and increase global infectious disease burdens.

Sociodemographic Differences in Population-Level Immunosenescence in Older Age.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the urgent need to understand variation in immunosenescence at the population-level. Thus far, population patterns of immunosenescence are not well described. Methods: We characterized measures of immunosenescence from newly released venous blood data from the nationally representative U.S Health and Retirement Study (HRS) of individuals ages 56 years and older. Findings: Median values of the CD8+:CD4+, EMRA:Nave CD4+ and EMRA:Nave CD8+ ratios were higher among older participants and were lower in those with additional educational attainment. Generally, minoritized race and ethnic groups had immune markers suggestive of a more aged immune profile: Hispanics had a CD8+:CD4+ median value of 0.37 (95% CI: 0.35, 0.39) compared to 0.30 in Whites (95% CI: 0.29, 0.31). Blacks had the highest median value of the EMRA:Nave CD4+ ratio (0.08; 95% CI: 0.07, 0.09) compared to Whites (0.03; 95% CI: 0.028, 0.033). In regression analyses, race/ethnicity and education were associated with large differences in the immune ratio measures after adjustment for age and sex. For example, each additional level of education was associated with roughly an additional decade of immunological age, and the racial/ethnic differences were associated with two to four decades of additional immunological age. Interpretation: Our study provides novel insights into population variation in immunosenescence. This has implications for both risk of age-related disease and vulnerability to novel pathogens (e.g., SARS-CoV-2). Funding: This study was partially funded by the U.S. National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Aging R00AG062749. AEA and GAN acknowledge support from the National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Aging R01AG075719. JBD acknowledges support from the Leverhulme Trust (Centre Grant) and the European Research Council grant ERC-2021-CoG-101002587. Research in context: Evidence before this study: Alterations in immunity with chronological aging have been consistently demonstrated across human populations. Some of the hallmark changes in adaptive immunity associated with aging, termed immunosenescence, include a decrease in nave T-cells, an increase in terminal effector memory cells, and an inverted CD8:CD4 T cell ratio. Several studies have shown that social and psychosocial exposures can alter aspects of immunity and lead to increased susceptibility to infectious diseases.Add value of this study: While chronological age is known to impact immunosenescence, there are no studies examining whether social and demographic factors independently impact immunosenescence. This is important because immunosenescence has been associated with greater susceptibility to disease and lower immune response to vaccination. Identifying social and demographic variability in immunosenescence could help inform risk and surveillance efforts for preventing disease in older age. To our knowledge, we present one of the first large-scale population-based investigations of the social and demographic patterns of immunosenescence among individuals ages 50 and older living in the US. We found differences in the measures of immunosenescence by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and education, though the magnitude of these differences varied across immune measures and sociodemographic subgroup. Those occupying more disadvantaged societal positions (i.e., minoritized race and ethnic groups and individuals with lower educational attainment) experience greater levels of immunosenescence compared to those in less disadvantaged positions. Of note, the magnitude of effect of sociodemographic factors was larger than chronological age for many of the associations.Implications for practice or policy and future research: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to better understand variation in adaptive and innate immunity at the population-level. While chronological age has traditionally been thought of as the primary driver of immunological aging, the magnitude of differences we observed by sociodemographic factors suggests an important role for the social environment in the aging human immune system.

Lessons Learned From Dear Pandemic, a Social Media-Based Science Communication Project Targeting the COVID-19 Infodemic.

The World Health Organization has identified excessive COVID-19 pandemic-related information as a public health crisis, calling it an "infodemic." Social media allows misinformation to spread quickly and outcompete scientifically grounded information delivered via other methods. Dear Pandemic is an innovative, multidisciplinary, social media-based science communication project whose mission is to educate and empower individuals to successfully navigate the overwhelming amount of information circulating during the pandemic. This mission has 2 primary objectives: (1) to disseminate trustworthy, comprehensive, and timely scientific content about the pandemic to lay audiences via social media and (2) to promote media literacy and information-hygiene practices, equipping readers to better manage the COVID-19 infodemic within their own networks. The volunteer team of scientists publishes 8-16 posts per week on pandemic-relevant topics. Nearly 2 years after it launched in March 2020, the project has a combined monthly reach of more than 4 million unique views across 4 social media channels, an email newsletter, and a website. We describe the project's guiding principles, lessons learned, challenges, and opportunities. Dear Pandemic has emerged as an example of a promising new paradigm for public health communication and intervention. The contributors deliver content in ways that are personal, practical, actionable, responsive, and native to social media platforms. The project's guiding principles are a model for public health communication targeting future infodemics and can bridge the chasm between the scientific community and the practical daily decision-making needs of the general public.

Older Adults in the United States Have Worse Cardiometabolic Health Compared to England.

Explanations for lagging life expectancy in the United States compared to other high-income countries have focused largely on "deaths of despair," but attention has also shifted to the role of stalling improvements in cardiovascular disease and the obesity epidemic. Using harmonized data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study and English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, we assess differences in self-reported and objective measures of health, among older adults in the United States and England and explore whether the differences in body mass index (BMI) documented between the United States and England explain the U.S. disadvantage. Older adults in the United States have a much higher prevalence of diabetes, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high inflammation (C-reactive protein) compared to English adults. While the distribution of BMI is shifted to the right in the United States with more people falling into extreme obesity categories, these differences do not explain the cross-country differences in measured biological risk. We conclude by considering how country differences in health may have affected the burden of coronavirus disease 2019 mortality in both countries.