Impact of population ageing on cancer-related disability-adjusted life years: A global decomposition analysis.

Background: As the global population ages, the burden of cancer is increasing. We aimed to assess the impact of population ageing on cancer-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Methods: We used the decomposition method to estimate the impact of ageing, population growth, and epidemiological change on cancer-related DALYs from 1990 to 2019, stratified by 204 countries/territories and by their sociodemographic index (SDI). This approach separates the net effect of population ageing from population growth and change in age-specific DALY rates. Results: Cancer-related DALYs among individuals aged ≥65 years increased by 95.14% between 1990 (52.25 million) and 2019 (101.96 million). Population growth was the main contributor to cancer-related DALYs (92.38 million, attributed proportion: 60.91%), followed by population ageing (41.38 million, 27.28%). Cancer-related DALYs attributed to population ageing followed a bell-shaped pattern when stratified by SDI, meaning they peaked in middle-SDI countries. Cancer-related DALYs attributed to ageing increased in 171 and decreased in 33 countries/territories. The top three cancer types with the highest increase in the absolute number of cancer-related DALYs associated with ageing were tracheal, bronchus, and lung (8.72 million); stomach (5.06 million); and colorectal (4.28 million) cancers, while the attributed proportion of DALYs was the highest in prostate (44.75%), pancreatic (40.93%), and non-melanoma skin (38.03%) cancers. Conclusions: Population ageing contributed to global cancer-related DALYs, revealing a bell-shaped pattern when stratified by socioeconomic development, affecting middle-SDI countries the most. To respond to the growing ageing population and reduce cancer-related DALYs, it is necessary to allocate health care resources and prioritize interventions for older adults.

Cancer survival analysis on population-based cancer registry data in Zhejiang Province, China (2018-2019).

Objective: This is a comprehensive overview of long-term cancer survival in Zhejiang Province, China. Hybrid analysis, a combination of cohort and period analysis, has been proposed to derive up-to-date cancer survival estimates. Using this approach, we aimed to timely and accurately analyze the 5-year relative survival (RS) and net survival (NS) in cancer registries of Zhejiang Province, China. Methods: A total of 255,725 new cancer cases diagnosed during 2013-2017 were included in 14 cancer registries in Zhejiang Province, China, with a follow-up on vital status until the end of 2019. The hybrid analysis was used to calculate the 5-year RS and 5-year NS during 2018-2019 for overall and stratifications by sex, cancer type, region, and age at diagnosis. Results: During 2018-2019, the age-standardized 5-year RS and NS for overall cancer in Zhejiang was 47.5% and 48.6%, respectively. The age-standardized 5-year RS for cancers of women (55.4%) was higher than that of men (40.0%), and the rate of urban areas (49.7%) was higher than that of rural areas (43.1%). The 5-year RS declined along with age, from 84.4% for ages <45 years to 23.7% for ages >74 years. Our results of the RS and NS showed the similar trend and no significant difference. The top five cancers with top age-standardized 5-year RS were thyroid cancer (96.0%), breast cancer (84.3%), testicular cancer (79.9%), prostate cancer (77.2%), and bladder cancer (70.6%), and the five cancers with the lowest age-standardized 5-year RS were pancreatic cancer (6.0%), liver cancer (15.6%), gallbladder cancer (17.1%), esophageal cancer (22.7%), and leukemia (31.0%). Conclusions: We reported the most up-to-date 5-year cancer RS and NS in Zhejiang Province, China for the first time, and found that the 5-year survival for cancer patients in Zhejiang during 2018-2019 was relatively high. The population-based cancer registries are recognized as key policy tools that can be used to evaluate both the impact of cancer prevention strategies and the effectiveness of health systems.

Development and evaluation of a risk prediction tool for risk-adapted screening of colorectal cancer in China.

Risk prediction tools for colorectal cancer (CRC) have potential to improve the efficiency of population-based screening by facilitating risk-adapted strategies. However, such an applicable tool has yet to be established in the Chinese population. In this study, a risk score was created using data from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), a nationwide cohort study of 409,854 eligible participants. Diagnostic performance of the risk score was evaluated in an independent CRC screening programme, which included 91,575 participants who accepted colonoscopy at designed hospitals in Zhejiang Province, China. Over a median follow-up of 11.1 years, 3136 CRC cases were documented in the CKB. A risk score was created based on nine questionnaire-derived variables, showing moderate discrimination for 10-year CRC risk (C-statistic = 0.68, 95 % CI: 0.67-0.69). In the CRC screening programme, the detection rates of CRC were 0.25 %, 0.82 %, and 1.93 % in low-risk (score <6), intermediate-risk (score: 6-19), and high-risk (score >19) groups, respectively. The newly developed score exhibited a C-statistic of 0.65 (95 % CI: 0.63-0.66), surpassing the widely adopted tools such as the Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS), modified APCS, and Korean Colorectal Screening scores (all C-statistics = 0.60). In conclusion, we developed a novel risk prediction tool that is useful to identify individuals at high risk of CRC. A user-friendly online calculator was also constructed to encourage broader adoption of the tool.

Comparative characteristics of early-onset vs. late-onset advanced colorectal cancer: a nationwide study in China.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC, diagnosed in patients under the age of 50 years) has been increasing around the world. Here, we aimed to systematically identify distinctive features of EOCRC. METHODS: From 2020 to 2021, we conducted a nationwide survey in 19 hospitals, collecting data on advanced CRC patients' demographics, clinical features, disease knowledge, medical experiences, expenditures, and health-related quality of life (HRQOL). We compared these features between EOCRC and late-onset colorectal cancer (LOCRC, ≥ 50 years old) groups and analyzed the association between EOCRC and HRQOL using multivariate linear regression. FINDINGS: In total, 991 patients with EOCRC and 3581 patients with LOCRC were included. Compared to the LOCRC group, the EOCRC group had higher levels of education, were more informed about the risk factors for CRC, were more likely to have widespread metastases throughout the body, were more inclined to undergo gene testing, and were more likely to opt for targeted therapy, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. However, HRQOL in the EOCRC group was similar to that of the LOCRC group, and no significant association was observed between EOCRC and HRQOL (beta: -0.753, P value: 0.307). INTERPRETATION: In Chinese patients, EOCRC patients had more aggressive features. Despite undergoing more intensified treatments and gene testing, they had similar HRQOL compared with LOCRC. These findings advocate for a more tailored approach to treatment, especially for young CRC patients with advanced TNM stages and metastasis.

Combining fecal immunochemical testing and questionnaire-based risk assessment in selecting participants for colonoscopy screening in the Chinese National Colorectal Cancer Screening Programs: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Screening reduces colorectal cancer (CRC) burden by allowing early resection of precancerous and cancerous lesions. An adequate selection of high-risk individuals and a high uptake rate for colonoscopy screening are critical to identifying people more likely to benefit from screening and allocating healthcare resources properly. We evaluated whether combining a questionnaire-based interview for risk factors with fecal immunochemical test (FIT) outcomes for high-risk assessment is more efficient and economical than a questionnaire-based interview-only strategy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this multicenter, population-based, prospective cohort study, we enrolled community residents aged 40 to 74 years in 29 provinces across China. From 2016 to 2020, a total of 1,526,824 eligible participants were consecutively enrolled in the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC) cohort, and 940,605 were enrolled in the Whole Life Cycle of Cancer Screening Program (WHOLE) cohort, with follow-up to December 31, 2022. The mean ages were 56.89 and 58.61 years in CanSPUC and WHOLE, respectively. In the WHOLE cohort, high-risk individuals were identified by combining questionnaire-based interviews to collect data on risk factors (demographics, diet history, family history of CRC, etc.) with FIT outcomes (RF-FIT strategy), whereas in the CanSPUC cohort, high-risk individuals were identified using only interview-based data on risk factors (RF strategy). The primary outcomes were participation rate and yield (detection rate of advanced neoplasm, early-stage detection rate of CRCs [stage I/II], screening yield per 10,000 invitees), which were reported for the entire population and for different gender and age groups. The secondary outcome was the cost per case detected. In total, 71,967 (7.65%) and 281,985 (18.47%) individuals were identified as high-risk and were invited to undergo colonoscopy in the RF-FIT group and RF group, respectively. The colonoscopy participation rate in the RF-FIT group was 26.50% (19,071 of 71,967) and in the RF group was 19.54% (55,106 of 281,985; chi-squared test, p < 0.001). A total of 102 (0.53%) CRCs and 2,074 (10.88%) advanced adenomas were detected by the RF-FIT, versus 90 (0.16%) and 3,593 (6.52%) by the RF strategy (chi-squared test, both p < 0.001). The early-stage detection rate using the RF-FIT strategy was significantly higher than that by the RF strategy (67.05% versus 47.95%, Fisher's exact test, p = 0.016). The cost per CRC detected was $24,849 by the RF-FIT strategy versus $55,846 by the RF strategy. A limitation of the study was lack of balance between groups with regard to family history of CRC (3.5% versus 0.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Colonoscopy participation and screening yield were better with the RF-FIT strategy. The association with CRC incidence and mortality reduction should be evaluated after long-term follow-up.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography and a polygenic risk score.

INTRODUCTION: Several studies have proved that Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) is a potential candidate for realizing precision screening. The effectiveness of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer has been proved to reduce lung cancer specific and overall mortality, but the cost-effectiveness of diverse screening strategies remained unclear. METHODS: The comparative cost-effectiveness analysis used a Markov state-transition model to assess the potential effect and costs of the screening strategies incorporating PRS or not. A hypothetical cohort of 300,000 heavy smokers entered the study at age 50-74 years and were followed up until death or age 79 years. The model was run with a cycle length of 1 year. All the transition probabilities were validated and the performance value of PRS was extracted from published literature. A societal perspective was adopted and cost parameters were derived from databases of local medical insurance bureau. Sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses were conducted. RESULTS: The strategy incorporating PRS was estimated to obtain an ICER of CNY 156,691.93 to CNY 221,741.84 per QALY gained compared with non-screening with the initial start age range across 50-74 years. The strategy that screened using LDCT alone from 70-74 years annually could obtain an ICER of CNY 80,880.85 per QALY gained, which was the most cost-effective strategy. The introduction of PRS as an extra eligible criteria was associated with making strategies cost-saving but also lose the capability of gaining more LYs compared with LDCT screening alone. CONCLUSION: The PRS-based conjunctive screening strategy for lung cancer screening in China was not cost-effective using the willingness-to-pay threshold of 1 time Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, and the optimal screening strategy for lung cancer still remains to be LDCT screening for now. Further optimization of the screening modality can be useful to consider adoption of PRS and prospective evaluation remains a research priority.

Type 2 diabetes, glycaemic traits and upper gastrointestinal cancer risk: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been linked with site-specific upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancers during the past decades, but associations are still inconclusive. This study aimed to determine the association between T2D, glycaemic traits (random blood glucose and HbA1c) and UGI cancer (oesophageal and gastric cancer). METHODS: In the present study, based on the large-scale prospective cohort of UK Biobank, we included 452 631 eligible participants. T2D was defined according to baseline self-report data, clinical data and biochemistry data. Random blood glucose and HbA1c were measured at baseline. Polygenic risk score was used to classify individuals into different UGI cancer genetic risks. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10.26 years (IQR: 9.47-10.97), 1392 incident UGI cancer cases were identified. T2D was significantly associated with a 44% increment in UGI cancer risk (95% CI 1.22 to 1.70, p<0.001). Moreover, per SD increase in random blood glucose and HbA1c was associated with 7% (95% CI 1.03 to 1.12, p<0.001) and 6% (95% CI 1.04 to 1.09, p<0.001) increased hazards of developing UGI cancer, respectively. Patients with T2D at high genetic risk had a 2.33-fold hazard of UGI cancer (95% CI 1.66 to 3.28, p<0.001), compared with non-T2D individuals at low genetic risk. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that T2D and elevated levels of glycaemic traits may be risk factors for incident UGI cancer. Individuals with a high genetic risk and T2D have a significantly increased risk of developing UGI cancer.

Development and evaluation of a risk assessment tool for the personalized screening of breast cancer in Chinese populations: A prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Breast cancer is a significant contributor to female mortality, exerting a public health burden worldwide, especially in China, where risk-prediction models with good discriminating accuracy for breast cancer are still scarce. METHODS: A multicenter screening cohort study was conducted as part of the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China. Dwellers aged 40-74 years were recruited between 2014 and 2019 and prospectively followed up until June 30, 2021. The entire data set was divided by year of enrollment to develop a prediction model and validate it internally. Multivariate Cox regression was used to ascertain predictors and develop a risk-prediction model. Model performance at 1, 3, and 5 years was evaluated using the area under the curve, nomogram, and calibration curves and subsequently validated internally. The prediction model incorporates selected factors that are assigned appropriate weights to establish a risk-scoring algorithm. Guided by the risk score, participants were categorized into low-, medium-, and high-risk groups for breast cancer. The cutoff values were chosen using X-tile plots. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by categorizing breast cancer risk into the low- and high-risk groups. A decision curve analysis was used to assess the clinical utility of the model. RESULTS: Of the 70,520 women enrolled, 447 were diagnosed with breast cancer (median follow-up, 6.43 [interquartile range, 3.99-7.12] years). The final prediction model included age and education level (high, hazard ratio [HR], 2.01 [95% CI, 1.31-3.09]), menopausal age (≥50 years, 1.34 [1.03-1.75]), previous benign breast disease (1.42 [1.09-1.83]), and reproductive surgery (1.28 [0.97-1.69]). The 1-year area under the curve was 0.607 in the development set and 0.643 in the validation set. Moderate predictive discrimination and satisfactory calibration were observed for the validation set. The risk predictions demonstrated statistically significant differences between the low-, medium-, and high-risk groups (p < .001). Compared with the low-risk group, women in the high- and medium-risk groups posed a 2.17-fold and 1.62-fold elevated risk of breast cancer, respectively. Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analyses. A web-based calculator was developed to estimate risk stratification for women. CONCLUSIONS: This study developed and internally validated a risk-adapted and user-friendly risk-prediction model by incorporating easily accessible variables and female factors. The personalized model demonstrated reliable calibration and moderate discriminative ability. Risk-stratified screening strategies contribute to precisely distinguishing high-risk individuals from asymptomatic individuals and prioritizing breast cancer screening. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Breast cancer remains a burden in China. To enhance breast cancer screening, we need to incorporate population stratification in screening. Accurate risk-prediction models for breast cancer remain scarce in China. We established and validated a risk-adapted and user-friendly risk-prediction model by incorporating routinely available variables along with female factors. Using this risk-stratified model helps accurately identify high-risk individuals, which is of significant importance when considering integrating individual risk assessments into mass screening programs for breast cancer. Current clinical breast cancer screening lacks a constructive clinical pathway and guiding recommendations. Our findings can better guide clinicians and health care providers.

Involvement in treatment decision-making and self-reported efficacy among patients with advanced colorectal cancer: a nationwide multi-center cross-sectional study.

Introduction: This cross-sectional study evaluated the involvement of patients with advanced colorectal cancer (CRC) in treatment decision-making, assessed the treatment efficacy according to their self-reports, and investigated the influencing factors. Methods: Patients with advanced CRC were recruited from 19 hospitals from March 2020 to March 2021 by a multi-stage multi-level sampling method. A self-designed questionnaire was used to collect demographic and clinical characteristics, involvement of CRC patients in treatment decision-making, treatment methods, and self-reported efficacy. Univariate and unordered multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the factors affecting the involvement in treatment decision-making and self-reported efficacy. Results: We enrolled 4533 patients with advanced CRC. The average age at diagnosis was 58.7 ± 11.8 years. For the treatment method, 32.4% of patients received surgery combined with chemotherapy, 13.1% of patients underwent surgery combined with chemotherapy and targeted therapy, and 9.7% of patients were treated with surgery alone. For treatment decision-making, 7.0% of patients were solely responsible for decision-making, 47.0% of patients shared treatment decision-making with family members, 19.0% of patients had family members solely responsible for treatment decision-making, and 27.0% of patients had their physicians solely responsible for treatment decision-making. Gender, age, education level, family income, marital status, treatment cost, hospital type, and treatment method were significantly associated with the involvement of patients in treatment decision-making. A total of 3824 patients submitted self-reported efficacy evaluations during treatment. The percentage of patients with good self-reported efficacy was 76.5% (for patients treated for the first time), 61.7% (for patients treated for the second time), and 43.2% (for patients treated after recurrence and metastasis), respectively. Occupation, education level, average annual family income, place of residence, time since cancer diagnosis, hospital type, clinical stage, targeted therapy, and involvement in treatment decision-making were the main influencing factors of self-reported efficacy of treatment. Discussion: Conclusively, CRC patients are not highly dominant in treatment decision-making and more likely to make treatment decisions with their family and doctors. Timely and effective communication between doctors and patients can bolster patient involvement in treatment decision-making.

Efficient plasma metabolic fingerprinting as a novel tool for diagnosis and prognosis of gastric cancer: a large-scale, multicentre study.

OBJECTIVE: Metabolic biomarkers are expected to decode the phenotype of gastric cancer (GC) and lead to high-performance blood tests towards GC diagnosis and prognosis. We attempted to develop diagnostic and prognostic models for GC based on plasma metabolic information. DESIGN: We conducted a large-scale, multicentre study comprising 1944 participants from 7 centres in retrospective cohort and 264 participants in prospective cohort. Discovery and verification phases of diagnostic and prognostic models were conducted in retrospective cohort through machine learning and Cox regression of plasma metabolic fingerprints (PMFs) obtained by nanoparticle-enhanced laser desorption/ionisation-mass spectrometry (NPELDI-MS). Furthermore, the developed diagnostic model was validated in prospective cohort by both NPELDI-MS and ultra-performance liquid chromatography-MS (UPLC-MS). RESULTS: We demonstrated the high throughput, desirable reproducibility and limited centre-specific effects of PMFs obtained through NPELDI-MS. In retrospective cohort, we achieved diagnostic performance with areas under curves (AUCs) of 0.862-0.988 in the discovery (n=1157 from 5 centres) and independent external verification dataset (n=787 from another 2 centres), through 5 different machine learning of PMFs, including neural network, ridge regression, lasso regression, support vector machine and random forest. Further, a metabolic panel consisting of 21 metabolites was constructed and identified for GC diagnosis with AUCs of 0.921-0.971 and 0.907-0.940 in the discovery and verification dataset, respectively. In the prospective study (n=264 from lead centre), both NPELDI-MS and UPLC-MS were applied to detect and validate the metabolic panel, and the diagnostic AUCs were 0.855-0.918 and 0.856-0.916, respectively. Moreover, we constructed a prognosis scoring system for GC in retrospective cohort, which can effectively predict the survival of GC patients. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated diagnostic and prognostic models for GC, which also contribute to advanced metabolic analysis towards diseases, including but not limited to GC.

Real-World Utilization, Barriers, and Factors Associated With the Targeted Treatment of Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients in China: A Multi-Center, Hospital-Based Survey Study.

Objectives: To explore the utilization, barriers, and factors associated with the targeted treatment of Chinese metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients. Methods: A total of 1,688 mCRC patients from 19 hospitals in 14 cities were enrolled from March 2020 to March 2021 using stratified, multistage cluster sampling. The use of targeted therapy and any barriers patients experienced were collected. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify the factors associated with initiating targeted treatment. Results: About 51.6% of the patients initiated targeted therapy, of whom 44.5%, 20.2%, and 35.2% started first-, second-, and third-line treatment, respectively. The most reported barriers were high medical costs and a lack of belief in the efficacy of targeted therapy. Patients treated in the general hospital, diagnosed at an older age, less educated, and who had a lower family income, no medical insurance, poor health-related quality of life, metastasis outside the liver/lung or systemic metastasis, a shorter duration of mCRC were less likely to initiate targeted therapy. Conclusion: Reduced medical costs and interventional education to improve public awareness could facilitate the use of targeted treatment for mCRC.

Association of psychological distress, smoking and genetic risk with the incidence of lung cancer: a large prospective population-based cohort study.

Background: Emerging evidence suggests a potential link between psychological distress (anxiety and depression) and lung cancer risk, however, it is unclear whether other factors such as tobacco smoking and genetic susceptibility modify the association. Methods: We included 405,892 UK Biobank participants free of cancer at baseline. Psychological distress was measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire-4 (PHQ-4). A polygenic risk score (PRS) was calculated using 18 lung cancer-associated genetic loci. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: During a median follow-up of 7.13 years, 1754 lung cancer cases were documented. The higher score of psychological distress was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer (HRper 1-SD= 1.07, 95% CI: 1.02-1.11) after adjustment for smoking and other confounders. Mediation analysis revealed that 16.8% (95% CI: 13.0%-20.6%) of the distress-lung cancer association was mediated by smoking. Compared with never smokers with no distress, participants with heavy smoking and high distress had the highest risk of lung cancer (HR=18.57, 95% CI: 14.51-23.76). Both multiplicative and additive interactions were observed between smoking and psychological distress in lung cancer. Furthermore, the greatest relative increase in risk was observed among those with high genetic risk and high distress (HR=1.87, 95%CI: 1.50-2.33), and there was a significant additive interaction between the PRS and psychological distress. Conclusion: Our results indicate that psychological distress was associated with an elevated risk of incident lung cancer, and such relation was modified by tobacco smoking and genetic susceptibility.

Years lived with disability of cancer in China: findings from disability weights measurement with a focus on the effect of disease burden.

Disability weights are crucial for quantifying health loss associated with non-fatal outcomes and were not well assessed in different countries, especially for specific cancer. Therefore, this study aimed to identify disability weights with a focus on specific cancer in a large Chinese population. Two types of web surveys were conducted, and 254 health states, including 30 new states for specific cancer, were investigated using paired comparison methods. The years lived with disability (YLDs) of cancer were calculated as the sum of the prevalence of each sequela of cancer multiplied by its relative disability weight. In total, 44,069 participants were eligible for the disability weights study. The disability weights of 254 health states were estimated. Among those, the disability weights of 18 specific cancer types varied greatly at diagnosis and primary treatment stage, with the value ranging from 0.619 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.606-0.632) for brain cancer to 0.167 (95% UI 0.158-0.176) for oropharyngeal cancer. The discrepancy in YLDs calculated by different disability weights was high, and the largest gap for all cancer combined was approximately 30.14%. When calculated using the cancer-specific disability weights, a total of 1,967,830 (95% UI 1,928,880-2,008,060) YLDs of cancer were recorded in China. The disability weights of cancer varied greatly among cancer types and populations, which had considerable influence on the estimation of the disease burden. Cancer-specific disability weights could provide a more accurate evaluation of the cancer burden.

Disparity in Lung Cancer Screening Among Smokers and Nonsmokers in China: Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening is effective in reducing lung cancer mortality in smokers; however, the evidence in nonsmokers is scarce. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the participant rate and effectiveness of one-off LDCT screening for lung cancer among smokers and nonsmokers. METHODS: A population-based prospective cohort study was performed to enroll participants aged between 40 and 74 years from 2013 to 2019 from 4 cities in Zhejiang Province, China. Participants who were evaluated as having a high risk of lung cancer from an established risk score model were recommended to undergo LDCT screening. Follow-up outcomes were retrieved on June 30, 2020. The uptake rate of LDCT screening for evaluated high-risk participants and the detection rate of early-stage lung cancer (stage 0-I) were calculated. The lung cancer incidence, lung cancer mortality, and all-cause mortality were compared between the screened and nonscreened groups. RESULTS: At baseline, 62.56% (18,818/30,079) of smokers and 6% (5483/91,455) of nonsmokers were identified as high risk (P<.001), of whom 41.9% (7885/18,818) and 66.31% (3636/5483) underwent LDCT screening (P<.001), respectively. After a median follow-up of 5.1 years, 1100 lung cancer cases and 456 all-cause death cases (116 lung cancer death cases) were traced. The proportion of early-stage lung cancer among smokers was 60.3% (173/287), which was lower than the proportion of 80.3% (476/593) among nonsmokers (P<.001). Among smokers, a higher proportion was found in the screened group (72/106, 67.9%) than the nonscreened group (56/114, 49.1%; P=.005), whereas no significance was found (42/44, 96% vs 10/12, 83%; P=.20) among nonsmokers. Compared with participants who were not screened, LDCT screening in smokers significantly increased lung cancer incidence (hazard ratio [HR] 1.39, 95% CI 1.09-1.76; P=.007) but reduced lung cancer mortality (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.28-0.96; P=.04) and all-cause mortality (HR 0.47, 95% CI 0.32-0.69; P<.001). Among nonsmokers, no significant results were found for lung cancer incidence (P=.06), all-cause mortality (P=.89), and lung cancer mortality (P=.17). CONCLUSIONS: LDCT screening effectively reduces lung cancer and all-cause mortality among high-risk smokers. Further efforts to define high-risk populations and explore adequate lung cancer screening modalities for nonsmokers are needed.

A Metabolomic Signature of Obesity and Risk of Colorectal Cancer: Two Nested Case-Control Studies.

Obesity is a leading contributor to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, but the metabolic mechanisms linking obesity to CRC are not fully understood. We leveraged untargeted metabolomics data from two 1:1 matched, nested case-control studies for CRC, including 223 pairs from the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial and 190 pairs from a prospective Chinese cohort. We explored serum metabolites related to body mass index (BMI), constructed a metabolomic signature of obesity, and examined the association between the signature and CRC risk. In total, 72 of 278 named metabolites were correlated with BMI after multiple testing corrections (p FDR < 0.05). The metabolomic signature was calculated by including 39 metabolites that were independently associated with BMI. There was a linear positive association between the signature and CRC risk in both cohorts (p for linear < 0.05). Per 1-SD increment of the signature was associated with 38% (95% CI: 9-75%) and 28% (95% CI: 2-62%) higher risks of CRC in the US and Chinese cohorts, respectively. In conclusion, we identified a metabolomic signature for obesity and demonstrated the association between the signature and CRC risk. The findings offer new insights into the underlying mechanisms of CRC, which is critical for improved CRC prevention.

Serum Calcium Concentrations and Risk of All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 2 Prospective Cohorts.

CONTEXT: Calcium plays a critical role in various physiological activities. However, the association between circulating calcium concentrations and mortality in a general healthy population remains undetermined. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of serum calcium concentrations with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. METHODS: Leveraging data from the UK Biobank (n = 361 662) and the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, n = 36 985), we prospectively examined the association of serum calcium concentrations with all-cause and cause-specific mortality using Cox proportional hazard and restricted cubic spline models. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.0 years, UK Biobank documented 18 327 deaths, including 3119 (17.0%) from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and 9599 (52.4%) from cancer. We found a U-shaped relationship of albumin-adjusted calcium concentrations with all-cause and CVD mortality. Compared with participants with moderate calcium levels (the third quintile, Q3), those with low and high levels had an increased risk of all-cause (hazard ratio [HR] 1.02 for Q1 vs Q3; 1.10 for Q5 vs Q3) and CVD mortality (HR 1.11 for Q1 vs Q3; 1.25 for Q5 vs Q3). In contrast, there was a linear positive relationship with cancer mortality (HR 1.09 for Q5 vs Q1). Similar results for all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortality were observed in US NHANES. CONCLUSION: Our findings provide novel insights into the association between serum calcium concentrations and mortality in the general healthy population.

The long-term survival of esophageal cancer in elderly patients: A multi-center, retrospective study from China.

BACKGROUND: Esophageal cancer (EC) often occurs in the elderly, and approximately 40% of patients are 70 years or older. To investigate the long-term survival of EC in elderly patients, to provide a theoretical direction for better management and predicting survival of EC based on the hospital-based multi-center study in China. METHODS: The study was conducted in 18 hospitals including 6 provincial hospitals, 8 municipal hospitals, and 4 county hospitals. We extracted information from medical record homepage, records of admission and discharge, and pathological diagnosis reports from the medical record department of the elderly patients at 70-84 years old to obtain the 3-year and 5-year overall survival (OS), and main associated factors, and to analyze the current therapeutic effect of different treatment options for elderly patients. RESULTS: The 3-year and 5-year OS rate of the 1013 elderly patients was 44.8% and 32.8%, respectively. Their median survival was 28.00 months. The median survival of patients with squamous cell carcinoma was longer than that of other pathological type (squamous vs. other types: 31.00 vs. 20.00 months, p = 0.018). The median survival of patients with surgery only or combined therapy was longer than that of radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and no therapy (surgery only vs. combined therapy vs. radiotherapy vs. chemotherapy vs. no therapy: 56.00 vs. 33.00 vs. 26.00 vs.18.00 vs. 16.00 months, p < 0.001). The 5-year OS rate of patients with highly differentiated cancer was higher than that of medium differentiated and poor differentiation/undifferentiated. In multivariate analysis, the older ages, pathological stage, were independent prognostic risk factors for poor EC survival. Treatment method was independent protective factors predictive of a good EC OS. CONCLUSIONS: The survival rate of the elderly EC patients was still low in China. Age, therapy method, and pathological stage were mainly associated with the survival rate of EC in elderly patients.

Comparison of Colonoscopy, Fecal Immunochemical Test, and Risk-Adapted Approach in a Colorectal Cancer Screening Trial (TARGET-C).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The screening yield and related cost of a risk-adapted screening approach compared with established screening strategies in population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening are not clear. METHODS: We randomly allocated 19,373 participants into 1 of the 3 screening arms in a 1:2:2 ratio: (1) one-time colonoscopy (n = 3883); (2) annual fecal immunochemical test (FIT) (n = 7793); (3) annual risk-adapted screening (n = 7697), in which, based on the risk-stratification score, high-risk participants were referred for colonoscopy and low-risk ones were referred for FIT. Three consecutive screening rounds were conducted for both the FIT and the risk-adapted screening arms. Follow-up to trace the health outcome for all the participants was conducted over the 3-year study period. The detection rate of advanced colorectal neoplasia (CRC and advanced precancerous lesions) was the main outcome. The trial was registered in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (number: ChiCTR1800015506). RESULTS: In the colonoscopy, FIT, and risk-adapted screening arms over 3 screening rounds, the participation rates were 42.4%, 99.3%, and 89.2%, respectively; the detection rates for advanced neoplasm (intention-to-treat analysis) were 2.76%, 2.17%, and 2.35%, respectively, with an odds ratio (OR)colonoscopy vs FIT of 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.99-1.63; P = .056), an ORcolonoscopy vsrisk-adapted screening of 1.17 (95% CI, 0.91-1.49; P = .218), and an ORrisk-adapted screeningvs FIT of 1.09 (95% CI, 0.88-1.35; P = .438); the numbers of colonoscopies needed to detect 1 advanced neoplasm were 15.4, 7.8, and 10.2, respectively; the costs for detecting 1 advanced neoplasm from a government perspective using package payment format were 6928 Chinese Yuan (CNY) ($1004), 5821 CNY ($844), and 6694 CNY ($970), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The risk-adapted approach is a feasible and cost-favorable strategy for population-based CRC screening and therefore could complement the well-established one-time colonoscopy and annual repeated FIT screening strategies. (Chinese Clinical Trial Registry; ChiCTR1800015506).

Correction: Cost-Effectiveness of Lung Cancer Screening Using Low-Dose Computed Tomography Based on Start Age and Interval in China: Modeling Study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/36425.].

Survival of 7,311 lung cancer patients by pathological stage and histological classification: a multicenter hospital-based study in China.

Background: Representative prognostic data by clinical characteristics for lung cancer is not yet available in China. This study aimed to calculate the survival of lung cancer patients with different pathological evaluations, explore their predictive effects and provide information for prognosis improvement. Methods: In this multicenter cohort study, primary lung cancer patients diagnosed in 17 hospitals at three distinct levels in China between 2011-2013 were enrolled and followed up till 2020. Overall survival and lung cancer specific survival were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards model was applied to assess the effects of predictors of lung cancer survival. Results: Of all the 7,311 patients, the 5-year overall and lung cancer specific survival rates were 37.0% and 41.6%, respectively. For lung cancer patients at stages I, II, III, and IV, the 5-year overall survival rates were 76.9%, 56.1%, 32.6%, and 21.4%, respectively; the lung cancer specific survival rates were 82.3%, 59.7%, 37.2%, and 26.4%, respectively. Differences of survival for each stage remained significant between histological classifications (P<0.01). The 5-year overall survival rates for patients with squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma (AC), and small cell carcinoma were 36.9%, 43.3% and 27.9%, respectively; the corresponding disease-specific rates were 41.5%, 48.6% and 31.0%, respectively. Such differences were non-statistically significant at advanced stages (P=0.09). After multivariate adjustments, stage and classification remained independent predictors for the survival of lung cancer. Conclusions: The prognosis of lung cancer varied with the pathological stages and histological classifications, and had room for improvement. Stage was the strongest predictor, so efforts on early detection and treatment are needed.