Real-Time Electronic Patient Portal Use Among Emergency Department Patients.

Importance: Patients with inequitable access to patient portals frequently present to emergency departments (EDs) for care. Little is known about portal use patterns among ED patients. Objectives: To describe real-time patient portal usage trends among ED patients and compare demographic and clinical characteristics between portal users and nonusers. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional study of 12 teaching and 24 academic-affiliated EDs from 8 health systems in California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, and Washington, patient portal access and usage data were evaluated for all ED patients 18 years or older between April 5, 2021, and April 4, 2022. Exposure: Use of the patient portal during ED visit. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were the weekly proportions of ED patients who logged into the portal, viewed test results, and viewed clinical notes in real time. Pooled random-effects models were used to evaluate temporal trends and demographic and clinical characteristics associated with real-time portal use. Results: The study included 1 280 924 unique patient encounters (53.5% female; 0.6% American Indian or Alaska Native, 3.7% Asian, 18.0% Black, 10.7% Hispanic, 0.4% Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, 66.5% White, 10.0% other race, and 4.0% with missing race or ethnicity; 91.2% English-speaking patients; mean [SD] age, 51.9 [19.2] years). During the study, 17.4% of patients logged into the portal while in the ED, whereas 14.1% viewed test results and 2.5% viewed clinical notes. The odds of accessing the portal (odds ratio [OR], 1.36; 95% CI, 1.19-1.56), viewing test results (OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.30-2.04), and viewing clinical notes (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.19-2.15) were higher at the end of the study vs the beginning. Patients with active portal accounts at ED arrival had a higher odds of logging into the portal (OR, 17.73; 95% CI, 9.37-33.56), viewing test results (OR, 18.50; 95% CI, 9.62-35.57), and viewing clinical notes (OR, 18.40; 95% CI, 10.31-32.86). Patients who were male, Black, or without commercial insurance had lower odds of logging into the portal, viewing results, and viewing clinical notes. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that real-time patient portal use during ED encounters has increased over time, but disparities exist in portal access that mirror trends in portal usage more generally. Given emergency medicine's role in caring for medically underserved patients, there are opportunities for EDs to enroll and train patients in using patient portals to promote engagement during and after their visits.

Limited English Proficiency and Sepsis Mortality by Race and Ethnicity.

Importance: Patients with limited English proficiency (LEP) face multiple barriers and are at risk for worse health outcomes compared with patients with English proficiency (EP). In sepsis, a major cause of mortality in the US, the association of LEP with health outcomes is not widely explored. Objective: To assess the association between LEP and inpatient mortality among patients with sepsis and test the hypothesis that LEP would be associated with higher mortality rates. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with sepsis included those who met the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's sepsis criteria, received antibiotics within 24 hours, and were admitted through the emergency department. Data were collected from the electronic medical records of a large New England tertiary care center from January 1, 2016, to December 31, 2019. Data were analyzed from January 8, 2021, to March 2, 2023. Exposures: Limited English proficiency, gathered via self-reported language preference in electronic medical records. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was inpatient mortality. The analysis used multivariable generalized estimating equation models with propensity score adjustment and analysis of covariance to analyze the association between LEP and inpatient mortality due to sepsis. Results: A total of 2709 patients met the inclusion criteria, with a mean (SD) age of 65.0 (16.2) years; 1523 (56.2%) were men and 327 (12.1%) had LEP. Nine patients (0.3%) were American Indian or Alaska Native, 101 (3.7%) were Asian, 314 (11.6%) were Black, 226 (8.3%) were Hispanic, 38 (1.4%) were Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander or of other race or ethnicity, 1968 (72.6%) were White, and 6 (0.2%) were multiracial. Unadjusted mortality included 466 of 2382 patients with EP (19.6%) and 69 of 327 with LEP (21.1%). No significant difference was found in mortality odds for the LEP compared with EP groups (odds ratio [OR], 1.12 [95% CI, 0.88-1.42]). When stratified by race and ethnicity, odds of inpatient mortality for patients with LEP were significantly higher among the non-Hispanic White subgroup (OR, 1.76 [95% CI, 1.41-2.21]). This significant difference was also present in adjusted analyses (adjusted OR, 1.56 [95% CI, 1.02-2.39]). No significant differences were found in inpatient mortality between LEP and EP in the racial and ethnic minority subgroup (OR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.63-1.58]; adjusted OR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.56-1.48]). Conclusions and Relevance: In a large diverse academic medical center, LEP had no significant association overall with sepsis mortality. In a subgroup analysis, LEP was associated with increased mortality among individuals identifying as non-Hispanic White. This finding highlights a potential language-based inequity in sepsis care. Further studies are needed to understand drivers of this inequity, how it may manifest in other diverse health systems, and to inform equitable care models for patients with LEP.

Effect of Automated Real-Time Feedback on Early-Sepsis Care: A Pragmatic Clinical Trial.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if a real-time monitoring system with automated clinician alerts improves 3-hour sepsis bundle adherence. DESIGN: Prospective, pragmatic clinical trial. Allocation alternated every 7 days. SETTING: Quaternary hospital from December 1, 2020 to November 30, 2021. PATIENTS: Adult emergency department or inpatients meeting objective sepsis criteria triggered an electronic medical record (EMR)-embedded best practice advisory. Enrollment occurred when clinicians acknowledged the advisory indicating they felt sepsis was likely. INTERVENTION: Real-time automated EMR monitoring identified suspected sepsis patients with incomplete bundle measures within 1-hour of completion deadlines and generated reminder pages. Clinicians responsible for intervention group patients received reminder pages; no pages were sent for controls. The primary analysis cohort was the subset of enrolled patients at risk of bundle nonadherent care that had reminder pages generated. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary outcome was orders for all 3-hour bundle elements within guideline time limits. Secondary outcomes included guideline-adherent delivery of all 3-hour bundle elements, 28-day mortality, antibiotic discontinuation within 48-hours, and pathogen recovery from any culture within 7 days of time-zero. Among 3,269 enrolled patients, 1,377 had reminder pages generated and were included in the primary analysis. There were 670 (48.7%) at-risk patients randomized to paging alerts and 707 (51.3%) to control. Bundle-adherent orders were placed for 198 intervention patients (29.6%) versus 149 (21.1%) controls (difference: 8.5%; 95% CI, 3.9-13.1%; p = 0.0003). Bundle-adherent care was delivered for 152 (22.7%) intervention versus 121 (17.1%) control patients (difference: 5.6%; 95% CI, 1.4-9.8%; p = 0.0095). Mortality was similar between groups (8.4% vs 8.3%), as were early antibiotic discontinuation (35.1% vs 33.4%) and pan-culture negativity (69.0% vs 68.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Real-time monitoring and paging alerts significantly increased orders for and delivery of guideline-adherent care for suspected sepsis patients at risk of 3-hour bundle nonadherence. The trial was underpowered to determine whether adherence affected mortality. Despite enrolling patients with clinically suspected sepsis, early antibiotic discontinuation and pan-culture negativity were common, highlighting challenges in identifying appropriate patients for sepsis bundle application.

An Electronic Medical Record Intervention to Increase Pharmacologic Prophylaxis for Venous Thromboembolism in Emergency Department Observation Patients.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The role of venous thromboembolism (VTE) prophylaxis among patients receiving emergency department (ED) observation unit care is unclear. We investigated an electronic health record-based clinical decision support tool aimed at increasing pharmacologic VTE prophylaxis use among at-risk patients placed in ED observation units. METHODS: We conducted an interrupted time-series study of an Epic-based best practice advisory implemented in May 2019 at a health care system comprising 2 academic medical centers and 4 community hospitals with dedicated ED observation units. The best practice advisory alerted staff at 24 hours to conduct a risk assessment and linked to a VTE prophylaxis order set. We used an interrupted time series, Bayesian structured time series, and a multivariable mixed-effect regression model to estimate the intervention effect. RESULTS: Prior to the best practice advisory implementation, there were 8,895 ED observation unit patients with a length of stay more than or equal to 24 hours, and 0.9% received pharmacologic VTE prophylaxis. Afterward, there were 12,664 ED observation unit patients with a length of stay more than or equal to 24 hours, and 4.8% received pharmacologic VTE prophylaxis. The interrupted time series and causal impact analysis showed a statistically significant increase in VTE prophylaxis (eg, absolute percent difference 3.8%, 95% confidence interval 3.5 to 4.1). In a multivariable model, only the intervention was significantly associated with receiving VTE prophylaxis (odds ratio 4.56, 95% confidence interval 2.22 to 9.37). CONCLUSION: An electronic health record-based alert helped to prompt staff caring for ED observation unit patients at risk for VTE with prolonged visits to order recommended pharmacologic prophylaxis. The best risk assessment model to use and the true incidence of VTE events in this population are unclear.

Pediatric Patients Discharged After Transfer to a Pediatric Emergency Department: Opportunities for Telehealth?

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Interemergency department pediatric transfers can be costly, involve risk, and may be disruptive to patients and families. Telehealth could be a way to safely reduce the number of transfers. We made an estimate of the proportion of transfers of pediatric patients to our emergency department (ED) that may have been avoidable using telehealth. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of electronic health record data of all pediatric patients (younger than 19 years) who were transferred to a single urban, academic medical center pediatric emergency department (PED) (annual pediatric volume approximately 15,000) between June 1, 2016, and December 29, 2021. We defined transfers as potentially avoidable with telehealth (the primary outcome) when the encounter at the receiving ED resulted in ED discharge and 1) met our definition of low-resource intensity (had no laboratory tests, diagnostic imaging, procedures, or consultations) or 2) could have used initial ED resources with telehealth guidance. RESULTS: Among 4,446 PED patients received in transfer during the study period, 406 (9%) were low-resource intensity. Of the non-low-resource intensity encounters, as many as another 1,103 (24.8%) potentially could have been avoided depending on available telehealth and initial ED resources, ranging from 210 (4.7%) with only telehealth specialty consultation to 538 (7.4%) with imaging and telehealth specialty consultation, and up to 1,034 (23.3%) with laboratory, imaging, and telehealth specialty consultation. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that depending on available telehealth and initial ED resources, between 9% and 33% of pediatric inter-ED transfers may have been avoidable. This information may guide health system design and PED operations when considering implementing pediatric telehealth.

Risk of Misleading Conclusions in Observational Studies of Time-to-Antibiotics and Mortality in Suspected Sepsis.

BACKGROUND: Influential studies conclude that each hour until antibiotics increases mortality in sepsis. However, these analyses often (1) adjusted for limited covariates, (2) included patients with long delays until antibiotics, (3) combined sepsis and septic shock, and (4) used linear models presuming each hour delay has equal impact. We evaluated the effect of these analytic choices on associations between time-to-antibiotics and mortality. METHODS: We retrospectively identified 104 248 adults admitted to 5 hospitals from 2015-2022 with suspected infection (blood culture collection and intravenous antibiotics ≤24 h of arrival), including 25 990 with suspected septic shock and 23 619 with sepsis without shock. We used multivariable regression to calculate associations between time-to-antibiotics and in-hospital mortality under successively broader confounding-adjustment, shorter maximum time-to-antibiotic intervals, stratification by illness severity, and removing assumptions of linear hourly associations. RESULTS: Changing covariates, maximum time-to-antibiotics, and severity stratification altered the magnitude, direction, and significance of observed associations between time-to-antibiotics and mortality. In a fully adjusted model of patients treated ≤6 hours, each hour was associated with higher mortality for septic shock (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.07; 95% CI: 1.04-1.11) but not sepsis without shock (aOR: 1.03; .98-1.09) or suspected infection alone (aOR: .99; .94-1.05). Modeling each hour separately confirmed that every hour of delay was associated with increased mortality for septic shock, but only delays >6 hours were associated with higher mortality for sepsis without shock. CONCLUSIONS: Associations between time-to-antibiotics and mortality in sepsis are highly sensitive to analytic choices. Failure to adequately address these issues can generate misleading conclusions.

Can tablet video-based telehealth assessment of the abdomen safely determine the need for abdominal imaging? A pilot study.

Objective: There is limited evidence on the reliability of video-based physical examinations. We aimed to evaluate the safety of a remote physician-directed abdominal examination using tablet-based video. Methods: This was a prospective observational pilot study of patients >19 years old presenting with abdominal pain to an academic emergency department July 9, 2021-December 21, 2021. In addition to usual care, patients had a tablet video-based telehealth history and examination by an emergency physician who was otherwise not involved in the visit. Both telehealth and in-person clinicians were asked about the patient's need for abdominal imaging (yes/no). Thirty-day chart review searched for subsequent ED visits, hospitalizations, and procedures. Our primary outcome was agreement between telehealth and in-person clinicians on imaging need. Our secondary outcome was potentially missed imaging by the telehealth physicians leading to morbidity or mortality. We used descriptive and bivariate analyses to examine characteristics associated with disagreement on imaging needs. Results: Fifty-six patients were enrolled; the median age was 43 years (interquartile range: 27-59), 31 (55%) were female. The telehealth and in-person clinicians agreed on the need for imaging in 42 (75%) of the patients (95% confidence interval [CI]: 62%-86%), with moderate agreement with Cohen's kappa ((k = 0.41, 95% CI: 0.15-0.67). For study patients who had a procedure within 24 hours of ED arrival (n = 3, 5.4%, 95% CI: 1.1%-14.9%) or within 30 days (n = 7, 12.5%, 95% CI: 5.2%-24.1%), neither telehealth physicians nor in-person clinicians missed timely imaging. Conclusion: In this pilot study, telehealth physicians and in-person clinicians agreed on the need for imaging for the majority of patients with abdominal pain. Importantly, telehealth physicians did not miss the identification of imaging needs for patients requiring urgent or emergent surgery.

Variability in Emergency Department Procedure Rates and Distributions in a Regional Health System: A Cross-Sectional Observational Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Procedural competency is essential to the practice of emergency medicine. However, there are limited data quantifying emergency department procedural volumes to inform the work of educators and credentialing bodies. In this study, we characterize procedural scope and volume in a regional health care system and compare rates between practice settings and over time. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were acquired from electronic medical records of a regional health care system from March 2017 through February 2022. Nonspecific entries, esoteric procedures, and nonprocedural clinical skills were excluded. Procedural rates were compared: (1) between academic and community hospitals, (2) across study years, and (3) across seasons. Analyses were repeated for pediatric encounters, and with study year 4 removed to assess the influence of the first year of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on results. RESULTS: There were 131,976 instances of 40 qualifying procedures in 1,979,935 unique visits across 9 EDs. Several high-acuity procedures had similar rates in academic and community settings, including cardiac pacing, cricothyrotomy, and lateral canthotomy. Year-over-year procedural rates were stable or increasing for most procedures, with a notable exception of lumbar puncture. Most procedures did not have significant seasonal variation, and most findings were stable when study year 4 was removed from the analysis. CONCLUSION: All procedures were performed in all settings and rates of several emergent procedures were similar in both settings, underscoring the importance of broad procedural competence for all emergency physicians. Educators and credentialing organizations can use these data to inform decisions regarding curriculum design and certification requirements.

Prospective External Validation of a Commercial Model Predicting the Likelihood of Inpatient Admission From the Emergency Department.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Early notification of admissions from the emergency department (ED) may allow hospitals to plan for inpatient bed demand. This study aimed to assess Epic's ED Likelihood to Occupy an Inpatient Bed predictive model and its application in improving hospital bed planning workflows. METHODS: All ED adult (18 years and older) visits from September 2021 to August 2022 at a large regional health care system were included. The primary outcome was inpatient admission. The predictive model is a random forest algorithm that uses demographic and clinical features. The model was implemented prospectively, with scores generated every 15 minutes. The area under the receiver operator curves (AUROC) and precision-recall curves (AUPRC) were calculated using the maximum score prior to the outcome and for each prediction independently. Test characteristics and lead time were calculated over a range of model score thresholds. RESULTS: Over 11 months, 329,194 encounters were evaluated, with an incidence of inpatient admission of 25.4%. The encounter-level AUROC was 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.848 to 0.851), and the AUPRC was 0.643 (95% CI, 0.640 to 0.647). With a prediction horizon of 6 hours, the AUROC was 0.758 (95% CI, 0.758 to 0.759,) and the AUPRC was 0.470 (95% CI, 0.469 to 0.471). At a predictive model threshold of 40, the sensitivity was 0.49, the positive predictive value was 0.65, and the median lead-time warning was 127 minutes before the inpatient bed request. CONCLUSION: The Epic ED Likelihood to Occupy an Inpatient Bed model may improve hospital bed planning workflows. Further study is needed to determine its operational effect.

Implementation of an Electronic Alert to Improve Timeliness of Second Dose Antibiotics for Patients With Suspected Serious Infections in the Emergency Department: A Quasi-Randomized Controlled Trial.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Delays in the second dose of antibiotics in the emergency department (ED) are associated with increased morbidity and mortality in patients with serious infections. We analyzed the influence of clinical decision support to prevent delays in second doses of broad-spectrum antibiotics in the ED. METHODS: We allocated adult patients who received cefepime or piperacillin/tazobactam in 9 EDs within an integrated health care system to an electronic alert that reminded ED clinicians to reorder antibiotics at the appropriate interval vs usual care. The primary outcome was a median delay in antibiotic administration. Secondary outcomes were rates of intensive care unit (ICU) admission, hospital mortality, and hospital length of stay. We included a post hoc secondary outcome of frequency of major delay (>25% of expected interval for second antibiotic dose). RESULTS: A total of 1,113 ED patients treated with cefepime or piperacillin/tazobactam were enrolled in the study, of whom 420 remained under ED care when their second dose was due and were included in the final analysis. The clinical decision support tool was associated with reduced antibiotic delays (median difference 35 minutes, 95% confidence interval [CI], 5 to 65). There were no differences in ICU transfers, inpatient mortality, or hospital length of stay. The clinical decision support tool was associated with decreased probability of major delay (absolute risk reduction 13%, 95% CI, 6 to 20). CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of a clinical decision support alert reminding clinicians to reorder second doses of antibiotics was associated with a reduction in the length and frequency of antibiotic delays in the ED. There was no effect on the rates of ICU transfers, inpatient mortality, or hospital length of stay.

Can video-based telehealth examinations of the abdomen safely determine the need for imaging?

There is little evidence on the reliability of the video-based telehealth physical examinations. Our objective was to evaluate the feasibility of a physician-directed abdominal examination using telehealth. This was a prospective, blinded observational study of patients >19 years of age presenting with abdominal pain to a large, academic emergency department. In addition to their usual care, patients had a video-based telehealth examination by an emergency physician early in the visit. We compared the in-person and telehealth providers' decisions on imaging. Thirty patients were enrolled and providers' recommendations for imaging were YES (telehealth: 18 (60%); in-person: 22 (73%)), UNSURE (telehealth: 9 (30%); in-person: 2 (7%)) and NO (telehealth: 6 (20%); in-person: 3 (10%)). There were 20 patients for whom both telehealth and in-person providers were not unsure; of these, 16 (80%, 95% confidence interval 56.3-94.3%) patients had a provider agreement on the need for imaging. While the use of video-based telehealth may be feasible for patients seeking emergency department care for abdominal pain, further study is needed to determine how it may be safely deployed. Currently, caution should be exercised when evaluating the need for abdominal imaging remotely.

CT utilization in evaluation of skin and soft tissue extremity infections in the ED: Retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) are commonly diagnosed in the emergency department (ED). While most SSTI are diagnosed with patient history and physical exam alone, ED clinicians may order CT imaging when they suspect more serious or complicated infections. Patients who inject drugs are thought to be at higher risk for complications from SSTI and may undergo CT imaging more frequently. The objective of this study is to characterize CT utilization when evaluating for SSTI in ED patients particularly in patients with intravenous drug use (IVDU), the frequency of significant and actionable findings from CT imaging, and its impact on subsequent management and ED operations. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of encounters involving a diagnosis of SSTI in seven EDs across an integrated health system between October 2019 and October 2021. Descriptive statistics were used to assess overall trends, compare CT utilization frequencies, actionable imaging findings, and surgical intervention between patients who inject drugs and those who do not. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze patient factors associated with higher likelihood of CT imaging. RESULTS: There were 4833 ED encounters with an ICD-10 diagnosis of SSTI during the study period, of which 6% involved a documented history of IVDU and 30% resulted in admission. 7% (315/4833) of patients received CT imaging, and 22% (70/315) of CTs demonstrated evidence of possible deep space or necrotizing infections. Patients with history of IVDU were more likely than patients without IVDU to receive a CT scan (18% vs 6%), have a CT scan with findings suspicious for deep-space or necrotizing infection (4% vs 1%), and undergo surgical drainage in the operating room within 48 h of arrival (5% vs 2%). Male sex, abnormal vital signs, and history of IVDU were each associated with higher likelihood of CT utilization. Encounters involving CT scans had longer median times to ED disposition than those without CT scans, regardless of whether these encounters resulted in admission (9.0 vs 5.5 h), ED observation (5.5 vs 4.1 h), or discharge (6.8 vs 2.9 h). DISCUSSION: ED clinicians ordered CT scans in 7% of encounters when evaluating for SSTI, most frequently in patients with abnormal vital signs or a history of IV drug use. Patients with a history of IVDU had higher rates of CT findings suspicious for deep space infections or necrotizing infections and higher rates of incision and drainage procedures in the OR. While CT scans significantly extended time spent in the ED for patients, this appeared justified by the high rate of actionable findings found on imaging, particularly for patients with a history of IVDU.

Real-Time User Feedback to Support Clinical Decision Support System Improvement.

OBJECTIVES: To improve clinical decision support (CDS) by allowing users to provide real-time feedback when they interact with CDS tools and by creating processes for responding to and acting on this feedback. METHODS: Two organizations implemented similar real-time feedback tools and processes in their electronic health record and gathered data over a 30-month period. At both sites, users could provide feedback by using Likert feedback links embedded in all end-user facing alerts, with results stored outside the electronic health record, and provide feedback as a comment when they overrode an alert. Both systems are monitored daily by clinical informatics teams. RESULTS: The two sites received 2,639 Likert feedback comments and 623,270 override comments over a 30-month period. Through four case studies, we describe our use of end-user feedback to rapidly respond to build errors, as well as identifying inaccurate knowledge management, user-interface issues, and unique workflows. CONCLUSION: Feedback on CDS tools can be solicited in multiple ways, and it contains valuable and actionable suggestions to improve CDS alerts. Additionally, end users appreciate knowing their feedback is being received and may also make other suggestions to improve the electronic health record. Incorporation of end-user feedback into CDS monitoring, evaluation, and remediation is a way to improve CDS.

Clinical decision support improves blood culture collection before intravenous antibiotic administration in the emergency department.

OBJECTIVE: Surviving Sepsis guidelines recommend blood cultures before administration of intravenous (IV) antibiotics for patients with sepsis or moderate to high risk of bacteremia. Clinical decision support (CDS) that reminds emergency department (ED) providers to obtain blood cultures when ordering IV antibiotics may lead to improvements in this process measure. METHODS: This was a multicenter causal impact analysis comparing timely blood culture collections prior to IV antibiotics for adult ED patients 1 year before and after a CDS intervention implementation in the electronic health record. A Bayesian structured time-series model compared daily timely blood cultures collected compared to a forecasted synthetic control. Mixed effects models evaluated the impact of the intervention controlling for confounders. RESULTS: The analysis included 54 538 patients over 2 years. In the baseline phase, 46.1% had blood cultures prior to IV antibiotics, compared to 58.8% after the intervention. Causal impact analysis determined an absolute increase of 13.1% (95% CI 10.4-15.7%) of timely blood culture collections overall, although the difference in patients with a sepsis diagnosis or who met CDC Adult Sepsis Event criteria was not significant, absolute difference 8.0% (95% CI -0.2 to 15.8). Blood culture positivity increased in the intervention phase, and contamination rates were similar in both study phases. DISCUSSION: CDS improved blood culture collection before IV antibiotics in the ED, without increasing overutilization. CONCLUSION: A simple CDS alert increased timely blood culture collections in ED patients for whom concern for infection was high enough to warrant IV antibiotics.

COVID-19 Seroprevalence in ED Health Care Professionals Study: A Cross-Sectional Study.

INTRODUCTION: ED health care professionals are at the frontline of evaluation and management of patients with acute, and often undifferentiated, illness. During the initial phase of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, there were concerns that ED health care professionals may have been at increased risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 due to difficulty in early identification of patients. This study assessed the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among ED health care professionals without confirmed history of COVID-19 infection at a quaternary academic medical center. METHODS: This study used a cross-sectional design. An ED health care professional was deemed eligible if they had worked at least 4 shifts in the adult emergency department from April 1, 2020, through May 31, 2020, were asymptomatic on the day of blood draw, and were not known to have had prior documented COVID-19 infection. The study period was December 17, 2020, to January 27, 2021. Eligible participants completed a questionnaire and had a blood sample drawn. Samples were run on the Roche Cobas Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody assay. RESULTS: Of 103 health care professionals (16 attending physicians, 4 emergency residents, 16 advanced practice professionals, and 67 full-time emergency nurses), only 3 (2.9%; exact 95% CI, 0.6%-8.3%) were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. DISCUSSION: At this quaternary academic medical center, among those who volunteered to take an antibody test, there was a low seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among ED clinicians who were asymptomatic at the time of blood draw and not known to have had prior COVID-19 infection.

Timing of pericardiocentesis and clinical outcomes: Is earlier pericardiocentesis better?

BACKGROUND: Pericardial tamponade is critical clinical diagnosis that requires prompt management and intervention. However, it is unknown if early pericardiocentesis is associated with better or worse patient outcomes. METHODS: A retrospective chart review was performed on all emergency department patients from two large academic hospitals with pericardial tamponade who underwent pericardiocentesis during the index hospitalization between March 2015-August 2020. We included only those who underwent pericardiocentesis within 24 h of their ED presentations. Subjects were stratified based on the time of pericardiocentesis, with early intervention defined as pericardiocentesis within <12 h and late intervention as those 12-24 h. Clinical outcomes of interest were; procedural complications, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, hospital length of stay (LOS), in hospital mortality, 30-day and first year survival. The effect of early vs. late intervention on survival was analyzed using log-rank tests for univariate analyses, Cox proportional hazard models for multivariable analyses and propensity matching. RESULTS: 205 patients with a mean age of 60 years, and 53.2% female were included. The median door-to-pericardiocentesis time for the early and late group were 5.0 h [interquartile range (IQR) 3.3-7.4] and 18.5 h (IQR 15.9-21.0), respectively. Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) in patients in the early group more frequently demonstrated right atrial collapse (78.7% vs 58.6%) and exaggerated mitral inflow velocity variances (84.8% vs 70.0%). Early pericardiocentesis was associated with a hazard ratio of 2.909 (95% CI: 0.926-9.137, p = 0.067) for 30-day survival and 3.124 (95% CI, 1.648-5.924, p < 0.001) for 1-year survival. CONCLUSION: Early pericardiocentesis was associated with decreased 1-year survival. Future prospective analysis adjusting for patients' complexities is required.

Early identification of patients admitted to hospital for covid-19 at risk of clinical deterioration: model development and multisite external validation study.

OBJECTIVE: To create and validate a simple and transferable machine learning model from electronic health record data to accurately predict clinical deterioration in patients with covid-19 across institutions, through use of a novel paradigm for model development and code sharing. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: One US hospital during 2015-21 was used for model training and internal validation. External validation was conducted on patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 at 12 other US medical centers during 2020-21. PARTICIPANTS: 33 119 adults (≥18 years) admitted to hospital with respiratory distress or covid-19. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: An ensemble of linear models was trained on the development cohort to predict a composite outcome of clinical deterioration within the first five days of hospital admission, defined as in-hospital mortality or any of three treatments indicating severe illness: mechanical ventilation, heated high flow nasal cannula, or intravenous vasopressors. The model was based on nine clinical and personal characteristic variables selected from 2686 variables available in the electronic health record. Internal and external validation performance was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the expected calibration error-the difference between predicted risk and actual risk. Potential bed day savings were estimated by calculating how many bed days hospitals could save per patient if low risk patients identified by the model were discharged early. RESULTS: 9291 covid-19 related hospital admissions at 13 medical centers were used for model validation, of which 1510 (16.3%) were related to the primary outcome. When the model was applied to the internal validation cohort, it achieved an AUROC of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.84) and an expected calibration error of 0.01 (95% confidence interval 0.00 to 0.02). Performance was consistent when validated in the 12 external medical centers (AUROC range 0.77-0.84), across subgroups of sex, age, race, and ethnicity (AUROC range 0.78-0.84), and across quarters (AUROC range 0.73-0.83). Using the model to triage low risk patients could potentially save up to 7.8 bed days per patient resulting from early discharge. CONCLUSION: A model to predict clinical deterioration was developed rapidly in response to the covid-19 pandemic at a single hospital, was applied externally without the sharing of data, and performed well across multiple medical centers, patient subgroups, and time periods, showing its potential as a tool for use in optimizing healthcare resources.

Strategies to minimize heterogeneity and optimize clinical trials in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS): Insights from mathematical modelling.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical modelling may aid in understanding the complex interactions between injury and immune response in critical illness. METHODS: We utilize a system biology model of COVID-19 to analyze the effect of altering baseline patient characteristics on the outcome of immunomodulatory therapies. We create example parameter sets meant to mimic diverse patient types. For each patient type, we define the optimal treatment, identify biologic programs responsible for clinical responses, and predict biomarkers of those programs. FINDINGS: Model states representing older and hyperinflamed patients respond better to immunomodulation than those representing obese and diabetic patients. The disparate clinical responses are driven by distinct biologic programs. Optimal treatment initiation time is determined by neutrophil recruitment, systemic cytokine expression, systemic microthrombosis and the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) in older patients, and by RAS, systemic microthrombosis and trans IL6 signalling for hyperinflamed patients. For older and hyperinflamed patients, IL6 modulating therapy is predicted to be optimal when initiated very early (<4th day of infection) and broad immunosuppression therapy (corticosteroids) is predicted to be optimally initiated later in the disease (7th - 9th day of infection). We show that markers of biologic programs identified by the model correspond to clinically identified markers of disease severity. INTERPRETATION: We demonstrate that modelling of COVID-19 pathobiology can suggest biomarkers that predict optimal response to a given immunomodulatory treatment. Mathematical modelling thus constitutes a novel adjunct to predictive enrichment and may aid in the reduction of heterogeneity in critical care trials. FUNDING: C.V. received a Marie Sklodowska Curie Actions Individual Fellowship (MSCA-IF-GF-2020-101028945). R.K.J.'s research is supported by R01-CA208205, and U01-CA 224348, R35-CA197743 and grants from the National Foundation for Cancer Research, Jane's Trust Foundation, Advanced Medical Research Foundation and Harvard Ludwig Cancer Center. No funder had a role in production or approval of this manuscript.