SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics in blood donors and COVID-19 epidemiology in eight Brazilian state capitals: A serial cross-sectional study.

Background: The COVID-19 situation in Brazil is complex due to large differences in the shape and size of regional epidemics. Understanding these patterns is crucial to understand future outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 or other respiratory pathogens in the country. Methods: We tested 97,950 blood donation samples for IgG antibodies from March 2020 to March 2021 in 8 of Brazil's most populous cities. Residential postal codes were used to obtain representative samples. Weekly age- and sex-specific seroprevalence were estimated by correcting the crude seroprevalence by test sensitivity, specificity, and antibody waning. Results: The inferred attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in December 2020, before the Gamma variant of concern (VOC) was dominant, ranged from 19.3% (95% credible interval [CrI] 17.5-21.2%) in Curitiba to 75.0% (95% CrI 70.8-80.3%) in Manaus. Seroprevalence was consistently smaller in women and donors older than 55 years. The age-specific infection fatality rate (IFR) differed between cities and consistently increased with age. The infection hospitalisation rate increased significantly during the Gamma-dominated second wave in Manaus, suggesting increased morbidity of the Gamma VOC compared to previous variants circulating in Manaus. The higher disease penetrance associated with the health system's collapse increased the overall IFR by a minimum factor of 2.91 (95% CrI 2.43-3.53). Conclusions: These results highlight the utility of blood donor serosurveillance to track epidemic maturity and demonstrate demographic and spatial heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 spread. Funding: This work was supported by Itaú Unibanco 'Todos pela Saude' program; FAPESP (grants 18/14389-0, 2019/21585-0); Wellcome Trust and Royal Society Sir Henry Dale Fellowship 204311/Z/16/Z; the Gates Foundation (INV- 034540 and INV-034652); REDS-IV-P (grant HHSN268201100007I); the UK Medical Research Council (MR/S0195/1, MR/V038109/1); CAPES; CNPq (304714/2018-6); Fundação Faculdade de Medicina; Programa Inova Fiocruz-CE/Funcap - Edital 01/2020 Number: FIO-0167-00065.01.00/20 SPU N°06531047/2020; JBS - Fazer o bem faz bem.

Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Gamma variant of concern has spread rapidly across Brazil since late 2020, causing substantial infection and death waves. Here we used individual-level patient records after hospitalization with suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between 20 January 2020 and 26 July 2021 to document temporary, sweeping shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed the spread of Gamma across 14 state capitals, during which typically more than half of hospitalized patients aged 70 years and older died. We show that such extensive shocks in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed before the detection of Gamma. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we found that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil's COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates were primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We estimate that approximately half of the COVID-19 deaths in hospitals in the 14 cities could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population-wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

Reinfection by the SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant in blood donors in Manaus, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: The city of Manaus, north Brazil, was stricken by a second epidemic wave of SARS-CoV-2 despite high seroprevalence estimates, coinciding with the emergence of the Gamma (P.1) variant. Reinfections were postulated as a partial explanation for the second surge. However, accurate calculation of reinfection rates is difficult when stringent criteria as two time-separated RT-PCR tests and/or genome sequencing are required. To estimate the proportion of reinfections caused by Gamma during the second wave in Manaus and the protection conferred by previous infection, we identified anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody boosting in repeat blood donors as a mean to infer reinfection. METHODS: We tested serial blood samples from unvaccinated repeat blood donors in Manaus for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies using two assays that display waning in early convalescence, enabling the detection of reinfection-induced boosting. Donors were required to have three or more donations, being at least one during each epidemic wave. We propose a strict serological definition of reinfection (reactivity boosting following waning like a V-shaped curve in both assays or three spaced boostings), probable (two separate boosting events) and possible (reinfection detected by only one assay) reinfections. The serial samples were used to divide donors into six groups defined based on the inferred sequence of infection and reinfection with non-Gamma and Gamma variants. RESULTS: From 3655 repeat blood donors, 238 met all inclusion criteria, and 223 had enough residual sample volume to perform both serological assays. We found 13.6% (95% CI 7.0-24.5%) of all presumed Gamma infections that were observed in 2021 were reinfections. If we also include cases of probable or possible reinfections, these percentages increase respectively to 22.7% (95% CI 14.3-34.2%) and 39.3% (95% CI 29.5-50.0%). Previous infection conferred a protection against reinfection of 85.3% (95% CI 71.3-92.7%), decreasing to respectively 72.5% (95% CI 54.7-83.6%) and 39.5% (95% CI 14.1-57.8%) if probable and possible reinfections are included. CONCLUSIONS: Reinfection by Gamma is common and may play a significant role in epidemics where Gamma is prevalent, highlighting the continued threat variants of concern pose even to settings previously hit by substantial epidemics.

Report 46: Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals.

The SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant spread rapidly across Brazil, causing substantial infection and death waves. We use individual-level patient records following hospitalisation with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 to document the extensive shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed Gamma's spread across 14 state capitals, and in which more than half of hospitalised patients died over sustained time periods. We show that extensive fluctuations in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed prior to Gamma's detection, and were largely transient after Gamma's detection, subsiding with hospital demand. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we find that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil's COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We project that approximately half of Brazil's COVID-19 deaths in hospitals could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization, and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries. NOTE: The following manuscript has appeared as 'Report 46 - Factors driving extensive spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals' at https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/handle/10044/1/91875 . ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY: COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates fluctuate dramatically in Brazil, and these fluctuations are primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity.

Neutralisation of SARS-CoV-2 lineage P.1 by antibodies elicited through natural SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination with an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine: an immunological study.

BACKGROUND: Mutations accrued by SARS-CoV-2 lineage P.1-first detected in Brazil in early January, 2021-include amino acid changes in the receptor-binding domain of the viral spike protein that also are reported in other variants of concern, including B.1.1.7 and B.1.351. We aimed to investigate whether isolates of wild-type P.1 lineage SARS-CoV-2 can escape from neutralising antibodies generated by a polyclonal immune response. METHODS: We did an immunological study to assess the neutralising effects of antibodies on lineage P.1 and lineage B isolates of SARS-CoV-2, using plasma samples from patients previously infected with or vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2. Two specimens (P.1/28 and P.1/30) containing SARS-CoV-2 lineage P.1 (as confirmed by viral genome sequencing) were obtained from nasopharyngeal and bronchoalveolar lavage samples collected from patients in Manaus, Brazil, and compared against an isolate of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B (SARS.CoV2/SP02.2020) recovered from a patient in Brazil in February, 2020. Isolates were incubated with plasma samples from 21 blood donors who had previously had COVID-19 and from a total of 53 recipients of the chemically inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine CoronaVac: 18 individuals after receipt of a single dose and an additional 20 individuals (38 in total) after receipt of two doses (collected 17-38 days after the most recent dose); and 15 individuals who received two doses during the phase 3 trial of the vaccine (collected 134-230 days after the second dose). Antibody neutralisation of P.1/28, P.1/30, and B isolates by plasma samples were compared in terms of median virus neutralisation titre (VNT50, defined as the reciprocal value of the sample dilution that showed 50% protection against cytopathic effects). FINDINGS: In terms of VNT50, plasma from individuals previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 had an 8·6 times lower neutralising capacity against the P.1 isolates (median VNT50 30 [IQR <20-45] for P.1/28 and 30 [<20-40] for P.1/30) than against the lineage B isolate (260 [160-400]), with a binominal model showing significant reductions in lineage P.1 isolates compared with the lineage B isolate (p≤0·0001). Efficient neutralisation of P.1 isolates was not seen with plasma samples collected from individuals vaccinated with a first dose of CoronaVac 20-23 days earlier (VNT50s below the limit of detection [<20] for most plasma samples), a second dose 17-38 days earlier (median VNT50 24 [IQR <20-25] for P.1/28 and 28 [<20-25] for P.1/30), or a second dose 134-260 days earlier (all VNT50s below limit of detection). Median VNT50s against the lineage B isolate were 20 (IQR 20-30) after a first dose of CoronaVac 20-23 days earlier, 75 (<20-263) after a second dose 17-38 days earlier, and 20 (<20-30) after a second dose 134-260 days earlier. In plasma collected 17-38 days after a second dose of CoronaVac, neutralising capacity against both P.1 isolates was significantly decreased (p=0·0051 for P.1/28 and p=0·0336 for P.1/30) compared with that against the lineage B isolate. All data were corroborated by results obtained through plaque reduction neutralisation tests. INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 lineage P.1 might escape neutralisation by antibodies generated in response to polyclonal stimulation against previously circulating variants of SARS-CoV-2. Continuous genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 combined with antibody neutralisation assays could help to guide national immunisation programmes. FUNDING: São Paulo Research Foundation, Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation and Funding Authority for Studies, Medical Research Council, National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread rapidly in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state in northern Brazil. The attack rate there is an estimate of the final size of the largely unmitigated epidemic that occurred in Manaus. We use a convenience sample of blood donors to show that by June 2020, 1 month after the epidemic peak in Manaus, 44% of the population had detectable immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies. Correcting for cases without a detectable antibody response and for antibody waning, we estimate a 66% attack rate in June, rising to 76% in October. This is higher than in São Paulo, in southeastern Brazil, where the estimated attack rate in October was 29%. These results confirm that when poorly controlled, COVID-19 can infect a large proportion of the population, causing high mortality.

Transmission of Multidrug-Resistant and Drug-Susceptible Tuberculosis within Households: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The "fitness" of an infectious pathogen is defined as the ability of the pathogen to survive, reproduce, be transmitted, and cause disease. The fitness of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB) relative to drug-susceptible tuberculosis is cited as one of the most important determinants of MDRTB spread and epidemic size. To estimate the relative fitness of drug-resistant tuberculosis cases, we compared the incidence of tuberculosis disease among the household contacts of MDRTB index patients to that among the contacts of drug-susceptible index patients. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This 3-y (2010-2013) prospective cohort household follow-up study in South Lima and Callao, Peru, measured the incidence of tuberculosis disease among 1,055 household contacts of 213 MDRTB index cases and 2,362 household contacts of 487 drug-susceptible index cases. A total of 35/1,055 (3.3%) household contacts of 213 MDRTB index cases developed tuberculosis disease, while 114/2,362 (4.8%) household contacts of 487 drug-susceptible index patients developed tuberculosis disease. The total follow-up time for drug-susceptible tuberculosis contacts was 2,620 person-years, while the total follow-up time for MDRTB contacts was 1,425 person-years. Using multivariate Cox regression to adjust for confounding variables including contact HIV status, contact age, socio-economic status, and index case sputum smear grade, the hazard ratio for tuberculosis disease among MDRTB household contacts was found to be half that for drug-susceptible contacts (hazard ratio 0.56, 95% CI 0.34-0.90, p = 0.017). The inference of transmission in this study was limited by the lack of genotyping data for household contacts. Capturing incident disease only among household contacts may also limit the extrapolation of these findings to the community setting. CONCLUSIONS: The low relative fitness of MDRTB estimated by this study improves the chances of controlling drug-resistant tuberculosis. However, fitter multidrug-resistant strains that emerge over time may make this increasingly difficult.

Infectiousness in a cohort of brazilian dogs: why culling fails to control visceral leishmaniasis in areas of high transmission.

The elimination of seropositive dogs in Brazil has been used to control zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis but with little success. To elucidate the reasons for this, the infectiousness of 50 sentinel dogs exposed to natural Leishmania chagasi infection was assessed through time by xenodiagnosis with the sandfly vector, Lutzomyia longipalpis. Eighteen (43%) of 42 infected dogs became infectious after a median of 333 days in the field (105 days after seroconversion). Seven highly infectious dogs (17%) accounted for >80% of sandfly infections. There were positive correlations between infectiousness and anti-Leishmania immunoglobulin G, parasite detection by polymerase chain reaction, and clinical disease (logistic regression, r2=0.08-0.18). The sensitivity of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to detect currently infectious dogs was high (96%) but lower in the latent period (<63%), and specificity was low (24%). Mathematical modeling suggests that culling programs fail because of high incidence of infection and infectiousness, the insensitivity of the diagnostic test to detect infectious dogs, and time delays between diagnosis and culling.

Feasibility and cost-effectiveness of standardised second-line drug treatment for chronic tuberculosis patients: a national cohort study in Peru.

BACKGROUND: There are no data on the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of using second-line drugs to treat patients with chronic tuberculosis, many of whom are infected with multidrug resistant (MDR) strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, in low or middle-income countries. METHODS: A national programme to treat chronic tuberculosis patients with a directly observed standardised 18-month daily regimen, consisting of kanamycin (3 months only), ciprofloxacin, ethionamide, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol, was established in Peru in 1997. Compliance and treatment outcomes were analysed for the cohort started on treatment between October, 1997, and March, 1999. Total and average costs were assessed. Cost-effectiveness was estimated as the cost per DALY gained. FINDINGS: 466 patients were enrolled; 344 were tested for drug susceptibility and 298 (87%) had MDR tuberculosis. 225 patients (48%) were cured, 57 (12%) died, 131 (28%) did not respond to treatment, and 53 (11%) defaulted. Of the 413 (89%) patients who complied with treatment, 225 (55%) were cured. Among MDR patients, resistance to five or more drugs was significantly associated with an unfavourable outcome (death, non-response to treatment, or default; odds ratio 3.37, 95% CI 1.32-8.60; p=0.01). The programme cost US $0.6 million per year, 8% of the National Tuberculosis Programme budget, and US $2381 per patient for those who completed treatment. The mean cost per DALY gained was $211 ($165 at drug prices projected for 2002). INTERPRETATION: Treating chronic tuberculosis patients with high levels of MDR with second-line drugs can be feasible and cost-effective in middle-income countries, provided a strong tuberculosis control programme is in place.