Association of nuclear cataract prevalence with UV radiation and heat load in lens of older people -five city study.

Epidemiological studies have reported that the frequency of nuclear cataracts (NUCs) is high among the elderly and in tropical countries. Ultraviolet (UV) irradiation and lens temperature are considered as key physical contributors, although their precise quantification is difficult. The aim of this study is to investigate the association of NUC prevalence with UV irradiation and heat load. First, we assessed the lens temperature using thermodynamic modeling considering the thermophysiological response. We then conducted a multivariate linear regression analysis for the epidemiological analysis of NUC prevalence across five cities. A strong correlation was observed between NUC prevalence and the combined effects of UV irradiation and cumulative equivalent minutes at 43 °C (CEM43°C) derived from the computed lens temperature (adjusted R2 = 0.933, p < 0.0001). Heat load significantly contributed to the prevalence at 52%, surpassing the contributions of UV irradiation (31%) and the decline in DNA repair capacity in the lens (17%). These results suggested that both UV radiation and heat load are associated with NUC, with heat load contributing more. Our findings provided important implications for future interventions, particularly in the context of global warming.

Estimation of the number of heat illness patients in eight metropolitan prefectures of Japan: Correlation with ambient temperature and computed thermophysiological responses.

The number of patients with heat illness transported by ambulance has been gradually increasing due to global warming. In intense heat waves, it is crucial to accurately estimate the number of cases with heat illness for management of medical resources. Ambient temperature is an essential factor with respect to the number of patients with heat illness, although thermophysiological response is a more relevant factor with respect to causing symptoms. In this study, we computed daily maximum core temperature increase and daily total amount of sweating in a test subject using a large-scale, integrated computational method considering the time course of actual ambient conditions as input. The correlation between the number of transported people and their thermophysiological temperature is evaluated in addition to conventional ambient temperature. With the exception of one prefecture, which features a different Köppen climate classification, the number of transported people in the remaining prefectures, with a Köppen climate classification of Cfa, are well estimated using either ambient temperature or computed core temperature increase and daily amount of sweating. For estimation using ambient temperature, an additional two parameters were needed to obtain comparable accuracy. Even using ambient temperature, the number of transported people can be estimated if the parameters are carefully chosen. This finding is practically useful for the management of ambulance allocation on hot days as well as public enlightenment.

Estimation of heat-related morbidity from weather data: A computational study in three prefectures of Japan over 2013-2018.

In recent years, the rates of heat-related morbidity and mortality have begun to increase with the increase in global warming; in this context, it is noteworthy that the number of patients transported by ambulance in heat-related cases in Japan reached 95,137 in 2018. The estimation of heat-related morbidity forms a key factor in proposing and implementing suitable intervention strategies and ambulance availability and arrangements. Heat-related morbidity is known to be fairly correlated to metrics related to ambient conditions, thus necessitating the exploration of new metrics to more accurately estimate morbidity. In this study, we use an integrated computational technique relating to thermodynamics and thermoregulation to estimate daily peak core temperature elevation and daily water loss, which are linked to heat-related illnesses, from weather data of three different prefectures in Japan (Tokyo, Osaka, and Aichi). The correlations of the computed core temperature elevation and water loss as well as conventional ambient conditions are investigated in terms of number of patients suffering from heat-related illnesses transported by ambulance from 2013 to 2018. The estimated water loss per the proposed computation yields better correlation with the number of patients transported by ambulance. In particular, the weight-sum daily water loss for two to three successive days is found to be an important metric for predicting the number of patients transported by ambulance. For the same ambient conditions, morbidity is found to decrease to 0.4 owing to heat adaption at the end of summer (60 days) as compared with that at the end of the rainy season. Thus, the weighted sum of water loss and daily average ambient temperature for successive days can be used as better metrics than conventional weather data for the application of intervention strategies and planning of ambulance arrangements for heat-related morbidity.