Predicting Delirium Risk Using an Automated Mayo Delirium Prediction Tool: Development and Validation of a Risk-Stratification Model.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a delirium risk-prediction tool that is applicable across different clinical patient populations and can predict the risk of delirium at admission to hospital. METHODS: This retrospective study included 120,764 patients admitted to Mayo Clinic between January 1, 2012, and December 31, 2017, with age 50 and greater. The study group was randomized into a derivation cohort (n=80,000) and a validation cohort (n=40,764). Different risk factors were extracted and analyzed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalized logistic regression. RESULTS: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for Mayo Delirium Prediction (MDP) tool using derivation cohort was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], .846 to .855). Using the regression coefficients obtained from the derivation cohort, predicted probability of delirium was calculated for each patient in the validation cohort. For the validation cohort, AUROC was 0.84 (95% CI, .834 to .847). Patients were classified into 1 of the 3 risk groups, based on their predicted probability of delirium: low (≤5%), moderate (6% to 29%), and high (≥30%). In the derivation cohort, observed incidence of delirium was 1.7%, 12.8%, and 44.8% (low, moderate, and high risk, respectively), which is similar to the incidence rates in the validation cohort of 1.9%, 12.7%, and 46.3%. CONCLUSION: The Mayo Delirium Prediction tool was developed from a large heterogeneous patient population with good validation results and appears to be a reliable automated tool for delirium risk prediction with hospitalization. Further prospective validation studies are required.

Zinc deficiency in Mexican American children: influence of zinc and other micronutrients on T cells, cytokines, and antiinflammatory plasma proteins.

BACKGROUND: The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey suggested some Mexican American children are at risk of zinc deficiency. OBJECTIVE: We measured the effects of zinc and micronutrients or of micronutrients alone on indexes of cell-mediated immunity and antiinflammatory plasma proteins. DESIGN: Subjects (n = 54) aged 6-7 y were randomly assigned and treated in double-blind fashion in equal numbers with 20 mg Zn (as sulfate) and micronutrients or with micronutrients alone 5 d/wk for 10 wk. RESULTS: Before treatment the mean +/- SD plasma zinc was 14.9 +/- 1.7 micromol/dL and the range was within the reference; hair zinc was 1.78 +/- 0.52 micromol/g and 41.6% were < or =1.68 micromol/g; serum ferritin was 25.7 +/- 18.6 microg/L and 50.0% were < or =20 microg/L. The zinc and micronutrients treatment increased the lymphocyte ratios of CD4(+) to CD8(+) and of CD4(+)CD45RA(+) to CD4(+)CD45RO(+), increased the ex vivo generation of interleukin-2 (IL-2) and interferon-gamma (IFN-gamma), decreased the generation of interleukin-10 (IL-10), and increased plasma interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (sIL-1ra) and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNF-R1). Micronutrients alone increased the ratio of CD4(+) to CD8(+) but not of CD4(+)CD45RA(+) to CD4(+)CD45RO(+), increased IFN-gamma but had no effect on IL-2 or IL-10, and increased sIL-1ra but not sTNF-R1. Efficacy of zinc and micronutrients was greater than micronutrients alone for all indexes except the ratio of CD4(+) to CD8(+), which was affected similarly. CONCLUSIONS: Before treatment, concentrations of hair zinc in 41.6% of subjects and serum ferritin in 50% were consistent with the presence of zinc deficiency. The greater efficacy of the zinc and micronutrients treatment compared with micronutrients alone supports this interpretation.

Association between zinc pool sizes and iron stores in premenopausal women without anaemia.

The simultaneous occurrence of Zn and Fe deficiencies in man has been known since the discovery of human Zn deficiency. However, it is not established that low Fe stores per se or Fe-deficiency anaemia infer low Zn status. Therefore our objective was to identify relationships between Zn and Fe status in premenopausal women without anaemia. We also examined the contribution of food frequencies and blood loss to Zn and Fe status. The subjects were thirty-three apparently healthy premenopausal women without anaemia, who were not taking dietary supplements containing Zn or Fe or oral contraceptives. Main outcomes were Zn kinetic parameters based on the three-compartment mammillary model and serum ferritin (SF) concentration; contributing factors were the frequency of consumption of specific foods and menorrhagia. Lower SF was significantly associated with smaller sizes of Zn pools. The breakpoint in the relationship between SF and the lesser peripheral Zn pool was found to be 21.0 microg SF/l. SF also correlated positively with frequency of beef consumption and negatively with bleeding through menstrual pads (BTMP). Similar to SF, the Zn pool sizes correlated positively with frequency of beef consumption, and negatively with BTMP. In summary, Zn pool sizes and Fe stores were highly correlated in premenopausal women. SF concentrations < 20 microg/l suggest an increased likelihood of low Zn status.

Association between plasma zinc concentration and zinc kinetic parameters in premenopausal women.

The objective of this study was to measure relationships between plasma zinc (Zn) concentrations and Zn kinetic parameters and to measure relationships of Zn status with taste acuity, food frequency, and hair Zn in humans. The subjects were 33 premenopausal women not taking oral contraceptives and dietary supplements containing iron and Zn. Main outcomes were plasma Zn concentrations, Zn kinetic parameters based on the three-compartment mammillary model using 67Zn as a tracer, electrical taste detection thresholds, and food frequencies. Lower plasma Zn was significantly (P < 0.01) associated with smaller sizes of the central and the lesser peripheral Zn pools, faster disappearance of tracer from plasma, and higher transfer rate constants from the lesser peripheral pool to the central pool and from the central pool to the greater peripheral pool. The break points in the plasma Zn-Zn kinetics relationship were found between 9.94 and 11.5 micromol/l plasma Zn. Smaller size of the lesser peripheral pool was associated with lower frequency of beef consumption and higher frequency of bran breakfast cereal consumption. Hypozincemic women with plasma Zn <10.7 micromol/l or 700 ng/ml had decreased thresholds of electrical stimulation for gustatory nerves. Our results based on Zn kinetics support the conventional cutoff value of plasma Zn (10.7 micromol/l or 700 ng/ml) between normal and low Zn status.

Porphyria cutanea tarda: multiplicity of risk factors including HFE mutations, hepatitis C, and inherited uroporphyrinogen decarboxylase deficiency.

The coexistence of factors considered to contribute to development of porphyria cutanea tarda was studied in 39 consecutive patients. Highly prevalent factors were alcohol intake in 79%, smoking in 86%, hepatitis C virus infection in 74%, estrogen use in 73% of 11 females, and at least one mutation in the HFE (hereditary hemochromatosis) gene in 65%. The C282Y mutation was found in 29%, H63D in 47%, and S65C in 0%. HFE genotypes included C282Y/C282Y in 9%, H63D/H63D in 9%, C282Y/H63D in 12%, C282Y/wild type in 9%, and H63D/wild type in 26%. Less prevalent were HIV infection in 15% (or 25% of those tested, N = 24) and erythrocyte uroporphyrinogen decarboxylase deficiency, which distinguishes familial (type 2) from "sporadic" (type 1) porphyria cutanea tarda, in 19%. Multiple contributing factors coexisted in both types 1 and 2, with 92% of all patients having three or more factors. These observations indicate that this porphyria is multifactorial in the individual patient, and therefore is seldom attributable to a single identifiable cause. Profiling for all potentially contributing factors is important for individualizing management.