Predicting Recurrence-Free and Overall Survival for Patients With Stage II Melanoma: The MIA Calculator.

PURPOSE: Improvements in recurrence-free survival (RFS) were demonstrated in two recent randomized trials for patients with sentinel node (SN)-negative stage IIB or IIC melanoma receiving adjuvant systemic therapy (pembrolizumab/nivolumab). However, adverse events also occurred. Accurate individualized prognostic estimates of RFS and overall survival (OS) would allow patients to more accurately weigh the risks and benefits of adjuvant therapy. Since the current American Joint Committee on Cancer eighth edition (AJCC-8) melanoma staging system focuses on melanoma-specific survival, we developed a multivariable risk prediction calculator that provides estimates of 5- and 10-year RFS and OS for these patients. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Melanoma Institute Australia (MIA) database for patients diagnosed with stage II (clinical or pathological) melanoma (n = 3,220). Survival prediction models were developed using multivariable Cox regression analyses (MIA models) and externally validated twice using data sets from the United States and the Netherlands. Each model's performance was assessed using C-statistics and calibration plots and compared with Cox models on the basis of AJCC-8 staging (stage models). RESULTS: The 5-year and 10-year RFS C-statistics were 0.70 and 0.73 (MIA-model) versus 0.61 and 0.60 (stage-model), respectively. For OS, the 5-year and 10-year C-statistics were 0.71 and 0.75 (MIA-model) compared with 0.62 and 0.61 (stage-model), respectively. The MIA models were well calibrated and externally validated. CONCLUSION: The MIA models offer accurate and personalized estimates of both RFS and OS in patients with stage II melanoma even in the absence of pathological staging with SN biopsy. These models were robust on external validations and may be used in everyday practice both with (ideally) and without performing SN biopsy to identify high-risk patients for further management strategies. An online tool will be available at the MIA website (Risk Prediction Tools).

The difficulty with measuring the largest melanoma tumour diameter in sentinel lymph nodes.

Identification of sentinel node (SN) metastases can set the adjuvant systemic therapy indication for stage III melanoma patients. For stage IIIA patients, a 1.0 mm threshold for the largest SN tumour diameter is used. Therefore, uniform reproducible measurement of its size is crucial. At present, the number of deposits or their microanatomical sites are not part of the inclusion criteria for adjuvant treatment. The goal of the current study was to show examples of the difficulty of measuring SN melanoma tumour diameter and teach how it should be measured. Histopathological slides of SN-positive melanoma patients were retrieved using the Dutch Pathology Registry (PALGA). Fourteen samples with the largest SN metastasis around 1.0 mm were uploaded via tele-pathology and digitally measured by 12 pathologists to reflect current practice of measurements in challenging cases. Recommendations as educational examples were provided. Microanatomical location of melanoma metastases was 1 subcapsular, 2 parenchymal and 11 combined. The smallest and largest difference in measurements were 0.24 mm and 4.81 mm, respectively. 11/14 cases (78.6%) showed no agreement regarding the 1.0 mm cut-off. The median discrepancy for cases ≤5 deposits was 0.5 mm (range 0.24-0.60, n=3) and 2.51 mm (range 0.71-4.81, n=11) for cases with ≥6 deposits. Disconcordance in measuring SN tumour burden is correlated with the number of deposits. Awareness of this discordance in challenging cases, for example, cases with multiple small deposits, is important for clinical management. Illustrating cases to reduce differences in size measurement are provided.

A prediction model for response to immune checkpoint inhibition in advanced melanoma.

Predicting who will benefit from treatment with immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) in patients with advanced melanoma is challenging. We developed a multivariable prediction model for response to ICI, using routinely available clinical data including primary melanoma characteristics. We used a population-based cohort of 3525 patients with advanced cutaneous melanoma treated with anti-PD-1-based therapy. Our prediction model for predicting response within 6 months after ICI initiation was internally validated with bootstrap resampling. Performance evaluation included calibration, discrimination and internal-external cross-validation. Included patients received anti-PD-1 monotherapy (n = 2366) or ipilimumab plus nivolumab (n = 1159) in any treatment line. The model included serum lactate dehydrogenase, World Health Organization performance score, type and line of ICI, disease stage and time to first distant recurrence-all at start of ICI-, and location and type of primary melanoma, the presence of satellites and/or in-transit metastases at primary diagnosis and sex. The over-optimism adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.64-0.66). The range of predicted response probabilities was 7%-81%. Based on these probabilities, patients were categorized into quartiles. Compared to the lowest response quartile, patients in the highest quartile had a significantly longer median progression-free survival (20.0 vs 2.8 months; P < .001) and median overall survival (62.0 vs 8.0 months; P < .001). Our prediction model, based on routinely available clinical variables and primary melanoma characteristics, predicts response to ICI in patients with advanced melanoma and discriminates well between treated patients with a very good and very poor prognosis.

Melanomas in children and adolescents: Clinicopathologic features and survival outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Melanomas in the first 2 decades of life are uncommon and poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To assess clinicopathologic features and survival of children (≤11 years) and adolescents (12-19 years) diagnosed with melanoma. METHODS: A pooled cohort of 514 patients was analyzed (397 Dutch, 117 Australian; 62 children, 452 adolescents). Pathology reports were reevaluated to determine melanoma subtypes. Multivariable Cox models were generated for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Melanoma subtypes were conventional melanoma (superficial spreading, nodular, desmoplastic, and acral lentiginous), spitzoid melanoma, and melanoma associated with a congenital nevus in 428, 78, and 8 patients, respectively. Ten-year RFS was 91.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 82.4%-100%) in children and 86.4% (95% CI, 82.7%-90.3%) in adolescents (P = .32). Ten-year OS was 100% in children and 92.7% (95% CI, 89.8%-95.8%) in adolescents (P = .09). On multivariable analysis possible only for the adolescent cohort due to the small number of children, ulceration status, and anatomic site were associated with RFS and OS, whereas age, sex, mitotic index, sentinel node status and melanoma subtype were not. Breslow thickness >4 mm was associated with worse RFS. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective study. CONCLUSIONS: Survival rates for children and adolescents with melanomas were high. Ulceration, head or neck location and Breslow thickness >4 mm predicted worse survival in adolescents.

Time interval between diagnostic excision-biopsy of a primary melanoma and sentinel node biopsy: effects on the sentinel node positivity rate and survival outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: The optimal time interval between diagnostic excision of a primary cutaneous melanoma and sentinel node (SN) biopsy is unknown. The current study sought to determine whether this interval influenced the SN-positivity rate, recurrence or survival. METHODS: Data collected from 2004 to 2014 for a Dutch population-based cohort of patients with melanoma who underwent SN biopsy (SNB) within 100 days of initial diagnosis (n = 7660) and for a similarly specified cohort from a large Australian melanoma treatment centre (n = 3478) were analysed. Time to SNB was analysed continuously (in weeks) and categorically (per month). The effects of SNB timing on SN-positivity were assessed using multivariable logistic regression, and its effects on recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed using Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. Advanced modelling using a multivariable Cox model with penalised splines for modelling the continuous effects of time to SNB on RFS and OS was also performed. RESULTS: In neither the Dutch nor the Australian cohort was there a significant association between time to SNB and SN-positivity in either cohort, nor was there an impact of time to SNB on RFS or OS in either cohort. The spline-based HR curves for RFS and OS confirmed these findings. CONCLUSIONS: The time interval between diagnostic excision of a primary melanoma and SNB did not influence the SN-positivity rate or survival outcomes. This provides reassurance that neither early nor delayed definitive wide excision and SNB will adversely affect prognosis.

The progressive relationship between increasing Breslow thickness and decreasing survival is lost in patients with ultrathick melanomas (≥15 mm in thickness).

BACKGROUND: Survival tends to decrease as the Breslow thickness of a primary melanoma increases. However, little is known about the prognostic value of Breslow thickness in patients with very thick melanomas. OBJECTIVE: We sought to assess survival in patients with melanomas ≥4.0 mm in Breslow thickness. METHODS: A pooled cohort of 5595 patients (4107 Dutch and 1488 Australian) with melanomas ≥4.0 mm in thickness diagnosed from 2000 to 2014 was analyzed. Standard and spline Cox regressions were generated for overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). RESULTS: The median follow-up was 3.4 years. The continuous hazard ratios (HRs) for OS and RFS increased steadily as the Breslow thickness increased to 15 mm, stabilized up to 20 mm, and decreased thereafter. Using patients with melanomas 4 to <10 mm thick as a reference group, the categoric HR for OS increased up to the 15- to -<20-mm thickness category and then decreased (HR, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.29-1.66], P < .0001 for 10-<15 mm; HR, 1.97 [95% CI, 1.55-2.51], P < .0001 for 15-<20 mm; and HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.07-1.84], P = .045 for ≥20 mm). For the RFS, similar trends were observed. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective study. Small cohorts of patients with melanomas 15-<20mm and ≥20mm. CONCLUSION: The progressive relationship between increasing Breslow thickness and decreasing survival is lost in patients with melanomas ≥15 mm in thickness.

Effect of the time interval between melanoma diagnosis and sentinel node biopsy on the size of metastatic tumour deposits in node-positive patients.

INTRODUCTION: This study sought to assess whether the interval between diagnostic excision-biopsy of a primary melanoma and definitive wide excision with sentinel node biopsy (SNB) influenced the size of SN metastatic deposits, which might have implications for management and prognosis. METHODS: Data were collected for (i) a Dutch population-based cohort of patients treated between 2004 and 2014 who underwent SNB within 100 days of complete excision of their primary melanoma and who were SN-positive with known SN metastasis diameter (n = 1027) and (ii) a cohort from a large Australian melanoma treatment centre (n = 541) who presented in the same time period. The effects of SNB timing on the size of SN metastatic deposits were analysed. RESULTS: Dutch patients whose SNB was performed in the second or third months after diagnosis had significantly larger SN metastasis diameters than patients who had their SNB in the first month (median increases of 17% (95%CI -14, 60%, p = 0.211) and 71% (95%CI 15, 119%, p = 0.004), respectively). No significant difference in tumour diameter for early and late SNB was found in the Australian cohort. CONCLUSIONS: SN metastasis diameter became progressively greater with SN biopsy in the second and third months after primary melanoma diagnosis in the larger, population-based patient cohort. An increase in metastasis diameter was not observed in the smaller, institutional cohort, possibly due to detection of larger SN metastases by routine pre-operative ultrasound, with fine-needle biopsy confirmation. These patients did not proceed to SNB and were therefore not included in the study.

Superficial basal cell carcinoma, think deeper: Step sectioning of skin biopsy specimens yields 14% more aggressive subtypes.

INTRODUCTION: Because of different therapeutic regimens for superficial and non-superficial basal cell carcinomas (BCCs), accurate histopathological examination of a punch biopsy to determine its subtype is essential. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the additional yield of a more extensive step-section method to that of a standard histologic examination at 4 levels. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data for this prospective study was obtained from the Pathology department of a Dutch tertiary hospital. Biopsy specimens of subsequent patients from March 2019 to June 2020 were sectioned to 8-levels instead of the regular 4-levels. Only patients with a superficial BCC subtype in the first 4-levels of sectioning were included (n = 100). After 8-level sectioning, it was recorded in which level (5-8) a more aggressive BCC component was found (i.e. nodular, infiltrative, or micronodular). Patients were followed-up to evaluate further treatment, and in case of excision, the excision specimen was reviewed to determine the BCC subtype. A logistic regression was performed to assess characteristics associated with a more aggressive BCC component in levels 5-8. RESULTS: In 14 patients (14%) a more aggressive component was found in levels 5-8, all with a nodular component. Thirteen of these patients underwent excision, confirming a more aggressive BCC subtype. Of the 86 patients that had no deeper BCC component in levels 5-8, 26 (30.2%) underwent excision; In 4 patients no residual BCC was found, in 15 patients superficial BCC, and in 7 a more aggressive BCC subtype (1 nodular and 6 a combination of superficial/nodular/infiltrative). In multivariable analysis, head&neck localization was associated with finding a more aggressive BCC subtype in levels 5-8 (OR 6.41 (95%CI 1.56-26.30), p = 0.01)). CONCLUSIONS: More extensive sectioning of superficial BCC biopsy specimens, especially in the head&neck area, leads to a more accurate BCC subtype diagnosis requiring different clinical management strategies.

Dermoscopic features and screening strategies for the detection of small-diameter melanomas.

BACKGROUND: Around 70% of cutaneous malignant melanomas (MMs) develop de novo, and small-diameter or 'tiny' lesions are expected to represent the earliest manifestation of most MMs. AIM: To describe the clinical, histopathological and dermoscopic features of tiny MMs, and to investigate the impact of imaging tools, including total body photography (TBP) and sequential digital dermoscopy imaging (SDDI) in their detection. METHODS: Consecutive MMs diagnosed over 2 years in a referral centre were retrospectively included. Tiny MMs were defined as MMs with a diameter of ≤ 5 mm on dermoscopy. Dermoscopic features and the performance of four imaging methods were evaluated. RESULTS: Of the 312 MMs included, 86 (27.6%) measured ≤ 5 mm, and 44.2% of these were invasive. Tiny MMs were more frequently excised for being new and/or changing compared with nontiny MMs (77.9% vs. 50.9%; P < 0.001). Half of the tiny MMs would have been missed by the dermoscopic seven-point checklist (48.2%) or the three-point checklist (49.4%), while Menzies' method and the revised pattern analysis correctly identified respectively 65.9% and 63.5% of the tiny MMs. The most frequent positive features for tiny MMs were asymmetry in structure or colour (77.6%), brown dots (65.9%), irregular dots and globules (76.5%) and atypical pigment network (44.7%). Dermoscopic features predictive of invasion in tiny MMs were atypical vascular pattern (OR = 26.5, 95% CI 1.5-475.5, P < 0.01), shiny white lines (OR = 12.4, 95% CI 0.7-237.8, P = 0.04) and grey/blue structures (OR = 3.7, 95% CI 1.3-10.5, P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: Tiny MMs are frequently invasive and represent a clinical, dermoscopic and histopathological challenge. Dermoscopy alone has suboptimal diagnostic accuracy. Early diagnosis relies on the detection of new or changing lesions aided by TBP and SDDI.

Histological regression in melanoma: impact on sentinel lymph node status and survival.

Regression in melanoma is an immunological phenomenon that results in partial or complete replacement of the tumor with variably vascular fibrous tissue, often accompanied by pigment-laden macrophages and chronic inflammation. In some cases, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) may represent the earliest phase of this process. The prognostic significance of regression has long been a matter of debate, with inconsistent findings reported in the literature to date. This study sought to determine whether regression in primary cutaneous melanomas predicted sentinel lymph node (SLN) status and survival outcomes in a large cohort of patients managed at a single centre. Clinical and pathological parameters for 8,693 consecutive cases were retrieved. Associations between regression and SLN status, overall survival (OS), melanoma-specific survival (MSS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were investigated using logistic and Cox regression. Histological evidence of regression was present in 1958 cases (22.5%). Regression was significantly associated with lower Breslow thickness, lower mitotic rate, and absence of ulceration (p < 0.0001). Multivariable analysis showed that regression in combination with TILs independently predicted a negative SLN biopsy (OR 0.33; 95% C.I. 0.20-0.52; p < 0.0001). Patients whose tumors showed both regression and TILs had the highest 10-year OS (65%, 95% C.I. 59-71%), MSS (85%, 95% C.I. 81-89%), and RFS (60%, 95% C.I. 54-66%). On multivariable analyses, the concurrent presence of regression and TILs independently predicted the lowest risk of death from melanoma (HR 0.69; 95% C.I. 0.51-0.94; p = 0.0003) as well as the lowest rate of disease recurrence (HR 0.71; 95% C.I. 0.58-0.85; p < 0.0001). However, in contrast, in the subgroup analysis of Stage III patients, the presence of regression predicted the lowest OS and RFS, with MSS showing a similar trend. Overall, these findings indicate a prognostically favorable role of regression in primary cutaneous melanoma. However, in Stage III melanoma patients, regression may be a marker of more aggressive disease.

High discordance rate in assessing sentinel node positivity in cutaneous melanoma: Expert review may reduce unjustified adjuvant treatment.

INTRODUCTION: Identification of sentinel node (SN) metastases can set the adjuvant systemic therapy indication for patients with stage III melanoma. Studies re-evaluating the diagnosis of initially positive SN biopsies are scarce. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Dutch patients with melanoma who underwent SN biopsy between 2003 and 2014 were selected from PALGA, the Dutch Pathology Registry. Histopathological slides of SN-positive patients were retrieved for review. A random sample was reassessed by an expert melanoma pathologist. Recurrence-free survival (RFS) of patients who were misclassified (false-positive) was compared with those with a true positive SN status. For comparison, a group of SN-negative patients was included. Multivariable logistic analysis was performed to assess clinicopathological characteristics associated with misclassification of SN status. RESULTS: Diagnosis was downgraded from melanoma metastasis to nodal nevus in 38 of the 322 reviewed patients (11.8%). Considering the inclusion criteria of phase III adjuvant trials, at least 4.3% of patients would have falsely qualified for adjuvant therapy. In multivariable analysis, patients with a low SN tumour burden and subcapsular SN tumour location had a significantly higher chance of being misclassified. The five-year RFS of the 38 downgraded patients was 86.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 72.6-96.6), similar to the 85.9% (95% CI = 84.9-86.8, p = 0.18) for 6413 SN-negative patients and better than the 53.2% (95% CI = 47.2-59.9, p = 0.009) of 284 patients who were truly SN positive upon review. CONCLUSION: More than 10% of originally positive SN biopsies of patients with melanoma concern misclassified nodal nevi. We advocate that when adjuvant treatment is considered in patients with stage III melanoma, SN biopsies should be reassessed by an expert melanoma pathologist.

Development and Validation of Nomograms to Predict Local, Regional, and Distant Recurrence in Patients With Thin (T1) Melanomas.

PURPOSE: Although the prognosis of patients with thin primary cutaneous melanomas (T1, ≤ 1.0 mm) is generally excellent, some develop recurrence. We sought to develop and validate a model predicting recurrences in patients with thin melanomas. METHODS: A Dutch population-based cohort (n = 25,930, development set) and a cohort from an Australian melanoma treatment center (n = 2,968, validation set) were analyzed (median follow-up 6.7 and 12.0 years, respectively). Multivariable Cox models were generated for local, regional, and distant recurrence-free survival (RFS). Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-statistic for each outcome. Each nomogram performance was evaluated using calibration plots defining low-risk and high-risk groups as the lowest and top 5% of the nomogram risk score, respectively. The nomograms' C-statistics were compared with those of a model including the current American Joint Committee on Cancer staging parameters (T-stage and sentinel node status). RESULTS: Local, regional, and distant recurrences were found in 209 (0.8%), 503 (1.9%), and 203 (0.8%) Dutch patients, respectively, and 23 (0.8%), 61 (2.1%), and 75 (2.5%) Australian patients, respectively. C-statistics of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.82) for local RFS, 0.77 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.78) for regional RFS, and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.83) for distant RFS were obtained for the development model. External validation showed C-statistics of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.90), 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70 to 0.82), and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.80), respectively. Calibration plots showed a good match between predicted and observed rates. Using the nomogram, the C-statistic was increased by 9%-12% for the development cohort and by 11%-15% for the validation cohort, compared with a model including only T-stage and sentinel node status. CONCLUSION: Most patients with thin melanomas have an excellent prognosis, but some develop recurrence. The presented nomograms can accurately identify a subgroup at high risk. An online calculator is available at www.melanomarisk.org.au.

Association of Histologic Regression With a Favorable Outcome in Patients With Stage 1 and Stage 2 Cutaneous Melanoma.

Importance: Although regression is commonly observed in cutaneous melanoma, it is uncertain whether it is associated with patient prognosis. Objective: To determine whether histologically confirmed regression was associated with better or worse survival in patients with primary cutaneous melanoma. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study analyzed data from 2 large cohorts of adults (one in the Netherlands and the other in Australia) with histologically proven, stage 1 and 2 primary, invasive cutaneous melanoma with known regression status treated between 2000 and 2014, with median follow-up times of 4.5 and 11.1 years for the Dutch and Australian cohorts, respectively. For the Dutch patients, population-based data from PALGA, the Dutch Pathology Registry, were used, and follow-up data were retrieved from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. For the Australian patients, data from the database of a large, specialized melanoma treatment center were used. Main Outcomes and Measures: Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed per cohort to assess recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS), and subgroup analyses according to Breslow thickness category and melanoma subtype were performed. Results: A total of 17 271 Dutch patients and 4980 Australian patients were included. In both cohorts, survival outcomes were better for patients with disease regression. For Dutch patients, the hazard ratio (HR) for those with disease regression was 0.55 (95% CI, 0.48-0.63; P < .001) for RFS and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.79-0.96; P = .004) for OS; for the Australian patients, the HR was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.52-0.72; P < .001) for RFS and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.64-0.84; P < .001) for OS. Subgroup analyses showed that the presence of regression improved RFS within thin and intermediate Breslow thickness melanomas in both cohorts. For patients with superficial spreading melanoma (SSM) subtype, regression improved RFS and OS in both cohorts. For Dutch patients with SSM, the HR for those with disease regression was 0.54 (95% CI, 0.46-0.63; P < .001) for RFS and 0.86 (95% CI, 0.76-0.96; P = .009) for OS; for the Australian patients with SSM, the HR was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.52-0.85; P = .001) for RFS and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.59-0.88; P = .001) for OS. Conclusions and Relevance: In 2 large patient cohorts from 2 different continents, regression was a favorable prognostic factor for patients with stage 1 and 2 melanomas, especially in those with thin and intermediate thickness tumors and those with SSM subtype.

Subtyping Cutaneous Melanoma Matters.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to investigate the role of melanoma subtype on survival and focus on the effects stratified by Breslow thickness and ulceration status. METHODS: Patients with cutaneous melanoma stage I, II, or III diagnosed between 2000 and 2014 were derived from the Dutch Nationwide Pathology Registry and overall survival data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Patients were followed until 2018. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, hazard ratios were calculated for each melanoma subtype, per Breslow thickness category and ulceration status, and adjusted for age, sex, stage, and localization. RESULTS: A total of 48 361 patients were included: 79.3% had superficial spreading melanoma (SSM), 14.6% nodular melanoma (NM), 5.2% lentigo maligna melanoma, and 0.9% acral lentiginous melanoma (ALM). In the total patient group, using SSM as the reference category, adjusted hazard ratios were 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01 to 1.12) for NM, 1.02 (95% CI = 0.93 to 1.13) for lentigo maligna melanoma, and 1.26 (95% = CI 1.06 to 1.50) for ALM. Among patients with 1.0 mm or less Breslow thickness and no ulceration, NM showed a twofold increased risk (hazard ratio = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.58 to 2.45) compared with SSM. Compared with 1.0 mm or less SSM without ulceration, the hazard ratio for 1.0 mm or less SSM with ulceration was 1.94 (95% CI = 1.55 to 2.44), and the hazard ratio for 1.0 mm or less NM with ulceration was 3.46 (95% CI = 2.17 to 5.50). NM patients with tumors greater than 1.0 mm did not show worse survival than SSM patients with tumors greater than 1.0 mm. CONCLUSIONS: In this large nationwide study, ALM patients showed worse survival than SSM patients. Among patients with melanomas that were thin (1.0 mm or less), NM subtype patients also showed worse survival than SSM patients.