A predictive model of survival after radical cystectomy for carcinoma of the bladder.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of patient and tumour characteristics on the disease-free survival after radical cystectomy for infiltrating bladder cancer, and to use these to help in constructing a meaningful prognostic index. METHODS: The disease-free survival was initially evaluated in 1026 patients (the reference series, 1969-1990). A multivariate analysis showed that the tumour P stage, grade and nodal involvement were the only factors which had an independent and significant association with survival. The computed regression coefficients were then used to classify patients into one of four risk categories and the results then validated by applying the model to a prospective test series (1991-1995). RESULTS: The 5-year disease-free survival of both groups was similar. When the results for the risk categories of the reference series were compared with those of the test series, there was no significant difference. CONCLUSION: This comprehensive prognostic model for the results of radical cystectomy was validated and verified in a prospective group of patients. Adjuvant therapies are indicated for patients with a high risk score.

Radical cystectomy for carcinoma of the bladder: critical evaluation of the results in 1,026 cases.

PURPOSE: We performed a critical analysis of the different prognostic factors affecting survival among patients with carcinoma of the bladder for whom cystectomy was indicated. The different patient and tumor characteristics were correlated to survival data by a univariate as well as multivariate analysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between 1969 and 1990, 764 men and 262 women, average age plus or minus standard deviation 43 +/- 8 years, with invasive carcinoma of the bladder were eligible for 1-stage radical cystectomy and urinary diversion. Patients were followed regularly and examined signs for and location of treatment failure. Followup ranged from 0 to 24.2 years, with a median plus or minus standard deviation of 4.05 +/- 4.16 years. RESULTS: Postoperative mortality was 4%. Most of the patients presented with advanced stage (greater than P3) disease. Squamous tumors accounted for 59% of cases, transitional carcinoma 22% and adenocarcinoma 11%. Bilharzial eggs were seen in 85% of the specimens. Regional lymph nodes were involved in 18.3% of the cases. The 5-year survival rate was 48%. The survival estimate was correlated to patient and tumor characteristics by univariate and multivariate analyses. Only tumor stage and grade, and lymph node status had a significant impact on survival. CONCLUSIONS: Contemporary cystectomy with continent diversion for muscle invasive disease provides minimal morbidity, offers good locoregional disease control and results in acceptable quality of life. The presence of positive regional lymph nodes is not a contraindication to this therapy.