Desirability of Outcome Ranking for Status Epilepticus: A Benefit-Risk Approach to Design and Analyses of Clinical SE Trials.

Most clinical trials of treatment efficacy evaluate benefits and harms separately. Investigators generally rate the primary outcome of a trial with a binary outcome measure and consider harms separately as adverse events. This approach fails to recognize finer gradations of patient response, correlations between benefits and harms, and the overall effects on individual patients. For example, in status epilepticus trials, efficacy is often defined as the absence of clinically apparent seizures with recovery of consciousness. Such an efficacy outcome fails to recognize that some causes of status epilepticus, such as subarachnoid hemorrhage or stroke, may not be accompanied by return of consciousness, and the need to intubate a patient may be classified as treatment failure even if status was successfully terminated. The Desirability of Outcome Ranking (DOOR) method uses a different approach. The DOOR method involves comparing the experiences of trial participants in different treatment arms by the desirability of the overall patient outcome. Using status epilepticus treatment as an example, a patient who experiences successful termination of status epilepticus but with major side effects would have a less desirable outcome than a patient with treatment success and minor side effects, who in turn would have a less desirable outcome than a patient with treatment success but no side effects. This is a patient-centered approach because it considers treatment efficacy in the context of the costs borne by the patient, for example, toxicity in achieving efficacy. Thus, DOOR considers both the benefits and harms to individual patients in assessing the outcome of a clinical trial. In this article, we present the rationale for the use of DOOR, the issues involved in the development of and statistical analyses of an ordinal outcome, and an example of the potential application of the DOOR method to a clinical trial of convulsive status epilepticus.

Optimal Randomization Designs for Large Multicenter Clinical Trials: From the National Institutes of Health Stroke Trials Network Funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke Experience.

From 2016 to 2021, the National Institutes of Health Stroke Trials Network funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke initiated ten multicenter randomized controlled clinical trials. Optimal subject randomization designs are demanded with 4 critical properties: (1) protection of treatment assignment randomness, (2) achievement of the desired treatment allocation ratio, (3) balancing of baseline covariates, and (4) ease of implementation. For acute stroke trials, it is necessary to minimize the time between eligibility assessment and treatment initiation. This article reviews the randomization designs for 3 trials currently enrolling in Stroke Trials Network funded by National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, the SATURN (Statins in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Trial), the MOST (Multiarm Optimization of Stroke Thrombolysis Trial), and the FASTEST (Recombinant Factor VIIa for Hemorrhagic Stroke Trial). Randomization methods utilized in these trials include minimal sufficient balance, block urn design, big stick design, and step-forward randomization. Their advantages and limitations are reviewed and compared with traditional stratified permuted block design and minimization.

Recruitment in Acute Stroke Trials: Challenges and Potential Solutions.

Randomized clinical trials of acute stroke have led to major advances in acute stroke therapy over the past decade. Despite these successes, recruitment in acute trials is often difficult. We outline challenges in recruitment for acute stroke trials and present potential solutions, which can increase the speed and decrease the cost of identifying new treatments for acute stroke. One of the largest opportunities to increase the speed of enrollment and make trials more generalizable is expansion of inclusion criteria whose impact on expected recruitment can be assessed by epidemiologic and registry databases. Another barrier to recruitment besides the number of eligible patients is availability of study investigators limited to business hours, which may be helped by financial support for after-hours call. The wider use of telemedicine has accelerated quicker stroke treatment at many hospitals and has the potential to accelerate research enrollment but requires training of clinical investigators who are often inexperienced with this approach. Other potential solutions to enhance recruitment include rapid prehospital notification of clinical investigators of potential patients, use of mobile stroke units, advances in the process of emergency informed consent, storage of study medication in the emergency department, simplification of study treatments and data collection, education of physicians to improve equipoise and enthusiasm for randomization of patients within a trial, and clear recruitment plans, and even potentially coenrollment, when there are competing trials at sites. Without successful recruitment, scientific advances and clinical benefit for acute stroke patients will lag.

A feasibility study of objective outcome measures used in clinical trials of freezing of gait.

BACKGROUND: Freezing of gait (FOG) is notoriously difficult to quantify, which has led to the use of multiple markers as outcomes for clinical trials. The instrumented timed up and go (TUG) and the many parameters that can be derived from it are commonly used as objective markers of FOG severity in clinical trials; however, it is unknown if they represent actual FOG severity. OBJECTIVE: To determine the specificity and responsiveness of objective surrogate markers of FOG severity commonly utilized in FOG studies. METHODS: Study design: We compared the specificity and responsiveness of commonly used markers in FOG clinical trials. Markers compared included velocity, step/stride length, step/stride length variability, TUG, and turn duration. Data was collected in four conditions (ON and OFF dopaminergic drugs, with and without a dual task). Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) was administered in the ON and OFF states. RESULTS: Thirty-three subjects were recruited (17 PD subjects without FOG (PD-control) and 16 subjects with PD and dopa-responsive FOG PD-FOG). The UPDRS motor scores were 24.9 for the PD-control group in the ON state, 24.8 for the FOG group in the ON state, and 42.4 for the FOG group in the OFF state. Significant mean differences between the ON and OFF conditions were observed with all surrogate markers (p < 0.01). However, only dual task turn duration and step variability showed trends toward significance when comparing PD-control and ON-FOG (p = 0.08). Test-retest reliability was high (ICC > 0.90) for all markers except standard deviations. Step length variability was the only marker to show an area under the ROC curve analysis > 0.70 comparing ON-FOG vs. PD-control. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple candidate surrogate markers for FOG severity showed responsiveness to levodopa challenge; however, most were not specific for FOG severity.

Electroencephalographic Seizures in Emergency Department Patients After Treatment for Convulsive Status Epilepticus.

PURPOSE: It is unknown how often and how early EEG is obtained in patients presenting with status epilepticus. The Established Status Epilepticus Treatment Trial enrolled patients with benzodiazepine-refractory seizures and randomized participants to fosphenytoin, levetiracetam, or valproate. The use of early EEG, including frequency of electrographic seizures, was determined in Established Status Epilepticus Treatment Trial participants. METHODS: Secondary analysis of 475 enrollments at 58 hospitals to determine the frequency of EEG performed within 24 hours of presentation. The EEG type, the prevalence of electrographic seizures, and characteristics associated with obtaining early EEG were recorded. Chi-square and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests were calculated as appropriate for univariate and bivariate comparisons. Odds ratios are reported with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: A total of 278 of 475 patients (58%) in the Established Status Epilepticus Treatment Trial cohort underwent EEG within 24 hours (median time to EEG: 5 hours [interquartile range: 3-10]). Electrographic seizure prevalence was 14% (95% confidence interval, 10%-19%; 39/278) in the entire cohort and 13% (95% confidence interval, 7%-21%) in the subgroup of patients meeting the primary outcome of the Established Status Epilepticus Treatment Trial (clinical treatment success within 60 minutes of randomization). Among subjects diagnosed with electrographic seizures (39), 15 (38%; 95% confidence interval, 25%-54%) had no clinical correlate on the video EEG recording. CONCLUSIONS: Electrographic seizures may occur in patients who stop seizing clinically after treatment of convulsive status epilepticus. Clinical correlates might not be present during electrographic seizures. These findings support early initiation of EEG recordings in patients suffering from convulsive status epilepticus, including those with clinical evidence of treatment success.

Cilostazol for Secondary Stroke Prevention: History, Evidence, Limitations, and Possibilities.

Cilostazol is a PDE3 (phosphodiesterase III) inhibitor with a long track record of safety that is Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency approved for the treatment of claudication in patients with peripheral arterial disease. In addition, cilostazol has been approved for secondary stroke prevention in several Asian countries based on trials that have demonstrated a reduction in stroke recurrence among patients with noncardioembolic stroke. The onset of benefit appears after 60 to 90 days of treatment, which is consistent with cilostazol's pleiotropic effects on platelet aggregation, vascular remodeling, blood flow, and plasma lipids. Cilostazol appears safe and does not increase the risk of major bleeding when given alone or in combination with aspirin or clopidogrel. Adverse effects such as headache, gastrointestinal symptoms, and palpitations, however, contributed to a 6% increase in drug discontinuation among patients randomized to cilostazol in a large secondary stroke prevention trial (CSPS.com [Cilostazol Stroke Prevention Study for Antiplatelet Combination]). Due to limitations of prior trials, such as open-label design, premature trial termination, large loss to follow-up, lack of functional or cognitive outcome data, and exclusive enrollment in Asia, the existing trials have not led to a change in clinical practice or guidelines in Western countries. These limitations could be addressed by a double-blind placebo-controlled randomized trial conducted in a broader population. If positive, it would increase the evidence in support of long-term treatment with cilostazol for secondary prevention in the millions of patients worldwide who have experienced a noncardioembolic ischemic stroke.

Early Neurologic Recovery, Practice Pattern Variation, and the Risk of Endotracheal Intubation Following Established Status Epilepticus.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the association between early neurologic recovery, practice pattern variation, and endotracheal intubation during established status epilepticus, we performed a secondary analysis within the cohort of patients enrolled in the Established Status Epilepticus Treatment Trial (ESETT). METHODS: We evaluated factors associated with the endpoint of endotracheal intubation occurring within 120 minutes of ESETT study drug initiation. We defined a blocked, stepwise multivariate regression, examining 4 phases during status epilepticus management: (1) baseline characteristics, (2) acute treatment, (3) 20-minute neurologic recovery, and (4) 60-minute recovery, including seizure cessation and improving responsiveness. RESULTS: Of 478 patients, 117 (24.5%) were intubated within 120 minutes. Among high-enrolling sites, intubation rates ranged from 4% to 32% at pediatric sites and 19% to 39% at adult sites. Baseline characteristics, including seizure precipitant, benzodiazepine dosing, and admission vital signs, provided limited discrimination for predicting intubation (area under the curve [AUC] 0.63). However, treatment at sites with an intubation rate in the highest (vs lowest) quartile strongly predicted endotracheal intubation independently of other treatment variables (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 8.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.08-21.4, model AUC 0.70). Site-specific variation was the factor most strongly associated with endotracheal intubation after adjustment for 20-minute (aOR 23.4, 95% CI 6.99-78.3, model AUC 0.88) and 60-minute (aOR 14.7, 95% CI 3.20-67.5, model AUC 0.98) neurologic recovery. CONCLUSIONS: Endotracheal intubation after established status epilepticus is strongly associated with site-specific practice pattern variation, independently of baseline characteristics, and early neurologic recovery and should not alone serve as a clinical trial endpoint in established status epilepticus. TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01960075.

Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation After Transient Ischemic Attack Versus Minor Ischemic Stroke in the POINT Trial.

Background Atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) after transient ischemic attack (TIA) has not been well studied. We compared the likelihood of new AF diagnosis after ischemic stroke versus TIA. Methods and Results The POINT (Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke) trial enrolled adults within 12 hours of minor ischemic stroke or high-risk TIA. Our exposure was index event type (ischemic stroke versus TIA). The primary analysis used the original trial definition of TIA (resolution of symptoms/signs). In secondary analyses, TIA cases with infarction on neuroimaging were reclassified as strokes. Our primary outcome was a new AF diagnosis, ascertained from adverse event and treatment interruption/discontinuation reports. We calculated C-statistics for variables associated with newly diagnosed AF. We used Kaplan-Meier survival statistics and Cox models adjusted for demographics and vascular risk factors. Excluding 49 subjects with baseline AF, 2746 patients had index stroke and 2086 patients had index TIA. During the 90-day follow-up, 106 patients had newly diagnosed AF. Cumulative risks of AF were 2.7% (95% CI, 2.1%-3.4%) after stroke and 2.0% (95% CI, 1.5%-2.7%) after TIA (P=0.15). After reclassifying index events by neuroimaging, cumulative AF risk was higher after stroke (2.7%; 95% CI, 2.2%-3.4%) than TIA (1.8%; 95% CI, 1.3%-2.5%) (P=0.04). Index event type had negligible predictive utility (C-statistic, 0.54). Conclusions Among patients with cerebral ischemia, the distinction between TIA versus minor stroke did not stratify the risk of subsequent AF diagnosis, implying that patients with TIA should undergo similar heart-rhythm monitoring strategies as patients with ischemic stroke.

A pharmacokinetic simulation study to assess the performance of a sparse blood sampling approach to quantify early drug exposure.

Estimating early exposure of drugs used for the treatment of emergent conditions is challenging because blood sampling to measure concentrations is difficult. The objective of this work was to evaluate predictive performance of two early concentrations and prior pharmacokinetic (PK) information for estimating early exposure. The performance of a modeling approach was compared with a noncompartmental analysis (NCA). A simulation study was performed using literature-based models for phenytoin (PHT), levetiracetam (LEV), and valproic acid (VPA). These models were used to simulate rich concentration-time profiles from 0 to 2 h. Profiles without residual unexplained variability (RUV) were used to obtain the true partial area under the curve (pAUC) until 2 h after the start of drug infusion. From the profiles with the RUV, two concentrations per patient were randomly selected. These concentrations were analyzed under a population model to obtain individual population PK (PopPK) pAUCs. The NCA pAUCs were calculated using a linear trapezoidal rule. Percent prediction errors (PPEs) for the PopPK pAUCs and NCA pAUCs were calculated. A PPE within ±20% of the true value was considered a success and the number of successes was obtained for 100 simulated datasets. For PHT, LEV, and VPA, respectively, the median value of the success statistics obtained using the PopPK approach of 81%, 92%, and 88% were significantly higher than the 72%, 80%, and 67% using the NCA approach (p < 0.05; Mann-Whitney U test). This study provides a means by which early exposure can be estimated with good precision from two concentrations and a PopPK approach. It can be applied to other settings in which early exposures are of interest.

Patterns of benzodiazepine underdosing in the Established Status Epilepticus Treatment Trial.

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to describe patterns of benzodiazepine use as first-line treatment of status epilepticus (SE) and test the association of benzodiazepine doses with response to second-line agents in patients enrolled in the Established Status Epilepticus Treatment Trial (ESETT). METHODS: Patients refractory to an adequate dose of benzodiazepines for the treatment of SE were enrolled in ESETT. Choice of benzodiazepine, doses given prior to administration of second-line agent, route of administration, setting, and patient weight were characterized. These were compared with guideline-recommended dosing. Logistic regression was used to determine the association of the first dose of benzodiazepine and the cumulative benzodiazepine dose with the response to second-line agent. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty patients were administered 1170 doses of benzodiazepines (669 lorazepam, 398 midazolam, 103 diazepam). Lorazepam was most frequently administered intravenously in the emergency department, midazolam intramuscularly or intravenously by the emergency medical services personnel, and diazepam rectally prior to ambulance arrival. The first dose of the first benzodiazepine (N = 460) was lower than guideline recommendations in 76% of midazolam administrations and 81% of lorazepam administrations. Among all administrations, >85% of midazolam and >76% of lorazepam administrations were lower than recommended. Higher first or cumulative benzodiazepine doses were not associated with better outcomes or clinical seizure cessation in response to second-line medications in these benzodiazepine-refractory seizures. SIGNIFICANCE: Benzodiazepines as first-line treatment of SE, particularly midazolam and lorazepam, are frequently underdosed throughout the United States. This broad and generalizable cohort confirms prior single site reports that underdosing is both pervasive and difficult to remediate. (ESETT ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01960075.).

Early Exposure of Fosphenytoin, Levetiracetam, and Valproic Acid After High-Dose Intravenous Administration in Young Children With Benzodiazepine-Refractory Status Epilepticus.

Fosphenytoin (FOS) and its active form, phenytoin (PHT), levetiracetam (LEV), and valproic acid (VPA) are commonly used second-line treatments of status epilepticus. However, limited information is available regarding LEV and VPA concentrations following high intravenous doses, particularly in young children. The Established Status Epilepticus Treatment Trial, a blinded, comparative effectiveness study of FOS, LEV, and VPA for benzodiazepine-refractory status epilepticus provided an opportunity to investigate early drug concentrations. Patients aged ≥2 years who continued to seizure despite receiving adequate doses of benzodiazepines were randomly assigned to FOS, LEV, or VPA infused over 10 minutes. A sparse blood-sampling approach was used, with up to 2 samples collected per patient within 2 hours following drug administration. The objective of this work was to report early drug exposure of PHT, LEV, and VPA and plasma protein binding of PHT and VPA. Twenty-seven children with median (interquartile range) age of 4 (2.5-6.5) years were enrolled. The total plasma concentrations ranged from 69 to 151.3 µg/mL for LEV, 11.3 to 26.7 µg/mL for PHT and 126 to 223 µg/mL for VPA. Free fraction ranged from 4% to 19% for PHT and 17% to 51% for VPA. This is the first report in young children of LEV concentrations with convulsive status epilepticus as well as VPA concentrations after a 40 mg/kg dose. Several challenges limited patient enrollment and blood sampling. Additional studies with a larger sample size are required to evaluate the exposure-response relationships in this emergent condition.

BDNF rs6265 Variant Alters Outcomes with Levodopa in Early-Stage Parkinson's Disease.

Disease outcomes are heterogeneous in Parkinson's disease and may be predicted by gene variants. This study investigated if the BDNF rs6265 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) is associated with differential outcomes with specific pharmacotherapy treatment strategies in the "NIH Exploratory Trials in PD Long-term Study 1" (NET-PD LS-1, n = 540). DNA samples were genotyped for the rs6265 SNP and others (rs11030094, rs10501087, rs1491850, rs908867, and rs1157659). The primary measures were the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) and its motor component (UPDRS-III). Groups were divided by genotype and treatment regimen (levodopa monotherapy vs levodopa with other medications vs no levodopa). T allele carriers were associated with worse UPDRS outcomes compared to C/C subjects when treated with levodopa monotherapy (+ 6 points, p = 0.02) and to T allele carriers treated with no levodopa treatment strategies (UPDRS: + 8 points, p = 0.01; UPDRS-III: + 6 points, p = 0.01). Similar effects of worse outcomes associated with levodopa monotherapy were observed in the BDNF rs11030094, rs10501087, and rs1491850 SNPs. This study suggests the levodopa monotherapy strategy is associated with worse disease outcomes in BDNF rs6265 T carriers. Pending prospective validation, BDNF variants may be precision medicine factors to consider for symptomatic treatment decisions for early-stage PD patients.

Efficacy of Clopidogrel for Prevention of Stroke Based on CYP2C19 Allele Status in the POINT Trial.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Clopidogrel is an antiplatelet drug that is metabolized to its active form by the CYP2C19 enzyme. The CHANCE trial (Clopidogrel in High-Risk Patients With Acute Nondisabling Cerebrovascular Events) found a significant interaction between loss-of-function allele status for the CYP2C19 gene and the effect of dual antiplatelet therapy with aspirin and clopidogrel on the rate of early recurrent stroke following acute transient ischemic attack/minor stroke. The POINT (Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke Trial), similar in design to CHANCE but performed largely in North America and Europe, demonstrated a reduction in early recurrent stroke with dual antiplatelet therapy compared with aspirin alone. This substudy was done to evaluate a potential interaction between loss-of-function CYP2C19 alleles and outcome by treatment group in POINT. METHODS: Of the 269 sites in 10 countries that enrolled patients in POINT, 134 sites participated in this substudy. DNA samples were genotyped for CYP2C19 *2, *3, and *17 alleles and classified as being carriers or noncarriers of loss-of-function alleles. Major ischemia consisted of ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or ischemic vascular death. RESULTS: Nine hundred thirty-two patients provided analyzable DNA. The rates of major ischemia were 6.7% for the aspirin group versus 2.3% for the dual antiplatelet therapy group (hazard ratio, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.09-1.21]; P=0.09) among carriers of loss-of-function allele. The rates of major ischemia were 5.6% for the aspirin group versus 3.7% for the dual antiplatelet therapy group (hazard ratio, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.32-1.34]; P=0.25) among noncarriers. There was no significant interaction by genotype for major ischemia (P=0.36) or stroke (P=0.33). CONCLUSIONS: This substudy of POINT found no significant interaction with CYP2C19 loss-of-function carrier status and outcome by treatment group. Failure to confirm the findings from the CHANCE trial may be because the loss-of-function alleles tested are not clinically important in this context or because the 2 trials had differences in racial/ethnic composition. Additionally, differences between the 2 trials might be due to chance as our statistical power was limited to 50%. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00991029.

The association of patient weight and dose of fosphenytoin, levetiracetam, and valproic acid with treatment success in status epilepticus.

The Established Status Epilepticus Treatment Trial was a blinded, comparative-effectiveness study of fosphenytoin, levetiracetam, and valproic acid in benzodiazepine-refractory status epilepticus. The primary outcome was clinical seizure cessation and increased responsiveness without additional anticonvulsant medications. Weight-based dosing was capped at 75 kg. Hence, patients weighing >75 kg received a lower mg/kg dose. Logistic regression models were developed in 235 adults to determine the association of weight (≤ or >75 kg, ≤ or >90 kg), sex, treatment, and weight-normalized dose with the primary outcome and solely seizure cessation. The primary outcome was achieved in 45.1% and 42.5% of those ≤75 kg and >75 kg, respectively. Using univariate analyses, the likelihood of success for those >75 kg (odds ratio [OR] = 0.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.54-1.51) or >90 kg (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.42-1.66) was not statistically different compared with those ≤75 kg or ≤90 kg, respectively. Similarly, other predictors were not significantly associated with primary outcome or clinical seizure cessation. Our findings suggest that doses, capped at 75 kg, likely resulted in concentrations greater than those needed for outcome. Studies that include drug concentrations and heavier individuals are needed to confirm these findings.

Framework for advancing rigorous research.

There is a pressing need to increase the rigor of research in the life and biomedical sciences. To address this issue, we propose that communities of 'rigor champions' be established to campaign for reforms of the research culture that has led to shortcomings in rigor. These communities of rigor champions would also assist in the development and adoption of a comprehensive educational platform that would teach the principles of rigorous science to researchers at all career stages.

Feasibility and utility of a clinician dashboard from wearable and mobile application Parkinson's disease data.

Mobile and wearable device-captured data have the potential to inform Parkinson's disease (PD) care. The objective of the Clinician Input Study was to assess the feasibility and clinical utility of data obtained using a mobile health technology from PD patients. In this observational, exploratory study, PD participants wore a smartwatch and used the Fox Wearable Companion mobile phone app to stream movement data and report symptom severity and medication intake for 6 months. Data were analyzed using the Intel® Pharma Analytics Platform. Clinicians reviewed participants' data in a dashboard during in-office visits at 2 weeks, 1, 3, and 6 months. Clinicians provided feedback in focus groups leading to dashboard updates. Between June and August 2017, 51 PD patients were recruited at four US sites, and 39 (76%) completed the 6-month study. Patients streamed 83,432 h of movement data from their smartwatches (91% of expected). Reporting of symptoms and medication intake using the app was lower than expected, 44% and 60%, respectively, but did not differ according to baseline characteristics. Clinicians' feedback resulted in ten updates to the dashboard during the study period. Clinicians reported that medications and patient reported outcomes were generally discernable in the dashboard and complementary to clinical assessments. Movement, symptoms, and medication intake data were feasibly translated from the app into a clinician dashboard but there was substantial attrition rate over 6 months. Further enhancements are needed to ensure long-term patient adherence to portable technologies and optimal digital data transfer to clinicians caring for PD patients.

A pragmatic, adaptive clinical trial design for a rare disease: The FOcal Cerebral Arteriopathy Steroid (FOCAS) trial.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric stroke investigators identified as their top research priority a clinical trial of corticosteroids for focal cerebral arteriopathy (FCA). However, FCA is both rare and an acute condition making it infeasible to enroll the large sample sizes needed for standard, confirmatory clinical trials. We present a pragmatic approach to clinical trial design that may inform the approach to other rare disorders. METHODS: We surveyed pediatric stroke experts to determine the level of evidence that would impact their clinical management of FCA. Incorporating survey results, a randomized, group sequential Bayesian adaptive design was proposed based on a quantitative radiologic outcome measure (change from baseline in change in the FCA Severity Score). Using accumulating information, the design determines whether intervention is better than control with high probability. RESULTS: Among 21 (100%) respondents, the probability of corticosteroid efficacy that would lead the experts to treat was 30% (median). The probability of efficacy that would make them unwilling to randomize (because they would feel all children should receive corticosteroids) was 70%. Simulation studies with the proposed design showed that a total of 42 subjects controls the type I error rate at the desired level 0.20 and yields a smaller average sample size and trial duration compared to a conventional design. CONCLUSIONS: Designs in rare diseases require special considerations; this is especially true for this childhood disease, which is both uncommon and acute. This design has incorporated expert consensus to establish the criteria for success, formal monitoring rules for safety, and early stopping rules.

Assessment of the End Point Adjudication Process on the Results of the Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke (POINT) Trial: A Secondary Analysis.

Importance: Debate continues about the value of event adjudication in clinical trials and whether independent centralized assessments improve reliability and validity of study results in masked randomized trials compared with local, investigator-assessed end points. Objective: To assess the results of the adjudicated end point process in the Platelet-Oriented Inhibition in New TIA and Minor Ischemic Stroke (POINT) trial by comparing end points assessed by local site investigators with centrally adjudicated end points. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is an ad hoc secondary analysis of a randomized, double-blind clinical trial comparing safety and effectiveness of clopidogrel bisulphate plus aspirin vs placebo plus aspirin. Patients received either 600 mg of clopidogrel bisulphate on day 1, then 75 mg per day through day 90 plus 50 to 325 mg of aspirin per day, or the same range of dosages of placebo plus aspirin. Investigators reported all potential end points; independent masked adjudicators were randomly assigned to review using definitions specified in the study protocol. This was a multicenter study; 269 international sites in 10 countries enrolled from May 28, 2010, to December 19, 2017. The study enrolled 4881 patients 18 years or older with transient ischemic attack or minor acute ischemic stroke within 12 hours of symptom onset and followed for 90 days from randomization; last follow-up was completed in March 2018. Main Outcomes and Measures: Independent adjudicators external to the study and masked to study treatment assignment adjudicated 467 primary and secondary effectiveness outcomes and major and minor bleeding events, including the primary composite end point, which was the risk of a composite of major ischemic events at 90 days, defined as ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or death from an ischemic vascular event. The primary safety end point was major hemorrhage. All components of the primary and safety outcomes were adjudicated. Results: In this secondary analysis of an international randomized clinical trial, a total of 269 sites worldwide randomized 4881 patients (median age, 65.0 years; interquartile range, 55-74 years); 55.0% were male. The primary results have been published previously. The hazard ratios for clopidogrel plus aspirin vs placebo plus aspirin for the primary composite end point were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.59-0.95) for adjudicator-assessed events and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.60-0.95) for investigator-assessed events. Agreement between adjudicator and investigator assessments was 90.7%. The hazard ratios for clopidogrel plus aspirin vs placebo plus aspirin for the primary safety end point were 2.32 (95% CI, 1.10-4.87) for adjudicator-assessed events and 2.58 (95% CI, 1.19-5.58) for investigator-assessed events, with an agreement rate of 77.5%. Conclusions and Relevance: Independent end point adjudication did not substantially alter estimates of the primary treatment effectiveness in the POINT trial. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00991029.