Evolution of acute lower respiratory infection in children aged < 5 years in Morocco from 2005 to 2014.

BACKGROUND: Acute lower respiratory infection is a major cause of death in children aged < 5 years in Morocco. The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) was introduced to the Moroccan National Immunization Programme in 2010. AIMS: To investigate the trend in the incidence of acute lower respiratory infection in children aged < 5 years during 2005-2014 in Morocco. METHODS: Data on acute lower respiratory infection in children aged < 5 years were obtained from the data published annually by the Moroccan Ministry of Health. We used joinpoint regression analysis to estimate the trend in incidence of acute lower respiratory infection during the study period. RESULTS: The incidence of acute lower respiratory infection increased significantly between 2005 and 2011: by 3.08% annually in children aged < 5 years and by 3.24% annually in children aged 1 to < 5 years. However, the incidence was stable after 2011 as the observed trends were not significant, although the incidence decreased from 2011 to 2014 by 4.26% annually in children aged < 5 years, by 3.57% annually in children aged 1 to < 5 years and by 5.14% annually in urban areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest a probable influence of the PCV on the trend in incidence of acute lower respiratory infection in Morocco.

Decline in childhood respiratory-related mortality after the introduction of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Morocco.

AIM: The objective of this study was to analyse the effect of the introduction in 2010 of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) on the reduction in mortality from respiratory causes in children under 5 years in Morocco. METHODS: Child mortality rates from respiratory cause were analysed using an interrupted time series analysis. Mortality rates from congenital and chromosomal causes were also analysed for comparative purposes. RESULTS: In the post-vaccination period, child mortality rates from respiratory causes decreased by 28% (Mortality rate ratio (MRR)=0.72, 95% CI: 0.58-0.83) and by 30% in children under 1 year (MRR=0.70, 95% CI: 0.50-0.98). In children aged between 1 and 5 years, the decrease in the child mortality rate was not statistically significant (MRR=0.99, 95% CI: 0.91-1.08). Mortality rates from congenital and chromosomal causes in the post-vaccination period were stable in children under 5 years (MRR=1.19, 95% CI: 0.97-1.48), in children under 1 year (MRR=1.15, 95% CI: 0.94-1.40) and in children aged between 1 and 5 years (MRR=1.19, 95% CI: 0.97-1.48). CONCLUSION: The decrease in child mortality from respiratory causes in the post-vaccination period provides strong evidence of the effectiveness of PCV.

Secular trends in consultations for asthma in early childhood, the 16 administrative regions of Morocco, 2004-2012.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about asthma trend in Morocco, particularly in early childhood. Furthermore, when dealing with asthma related environmental risk factors in Morocco, decision-making focus is in one region R9, while 16 regions make up the country. This work aims at studying 9-year trends in consultations for asthma in under-5 children in the 16 individual regions with respect to area and age group. METHODS: Direct method use, based on the only available national data from the open access files of the ministry of health, standardizing data for three age groups (0-11 ; 12-23 and 24-59 months). We compared age-adjusted rates, stratified by area (urban and rural areas) within each region (Wilcoxon's signed ranks test), and between all regions emphasizing on R9. Secular trends are examined (Kendall's rank correlation test). We also compared directly standardized rates as a rate ratio for two study populations (that of R9 and any region with highest rates). We finally compared rates by age group in selected regions. RESULTS: Secular increase in prevalence rates was shown in both urban and rural Morocco, particularly in urban areas of R10, R14, R16 and R5, and in rural areas of R14 and R16. In urban area of R10 (the highest age-adjusted prevalence rates area) the rates showed secular increase from 6.82 at 95 % CI = [6.44 to 7.19] per 1000 childhood population in 2004 to 20.91 at 95 % CI = [20.26 to 21.56] per 1000 childhood population in 2012 (P = 0.001). Rates were higher in urban than rural Morocco, particularly in R8, R9, R10, R14, R15 ; R6 was an exception. Rates in R10 were 1.63 higher than that in R9 in 2004 and rose to be 2.55 higher in 2012 ; rates in urban area of R14, about 3 times lower than that in R9 in 2004, increased to be similar in 2012. The highest-prevalence age group varied according to region and area. DISCUSSION: The regions that worth decision making attention are the urban areas of R10 (the highest prevalence rates Moroccan area, showing continuous increase), of R9, of R14 and the rural area of R6. The rates in the urban area of R9 (a current continuous decision making focus) remained high but stable within the study period and less important than those in R10. Environmental factors (biological particules, non-biological particules or gazes) are suspected.The potential unavailability of treatment at regular basis at the primary health care centers may reduce frequency of consultations for asthma in early childhood : outpatients may consult only if asthma causes problems in an attempt to get free medicines ; chances of outpatients' follow-up by the primary health care center's physicians are therefore reduced and optimal asthma control is not achieved. CONCLUSION: Social, health care policy and environmental factors, to which decision-making has to be responsive, are suspected to be affecting both frequency of and time secular trend in consultations for asthma in early childhood in Morocco.