Vulnerability of barley yields in Québec.

Climate projections across Québec indicate increased water stress and recurrent vulnerability of cropping systems. In recent years, reports of droughts and water stress have been recorded across the province. Many parts of Québec have experienced droughts in the past few years, which have had uninvestigated impacts on crops. These droughts have been described as some of the most significant in the last 80 years. On the positive side, climate change is likely to trigger shorter winters and therefore longer growing seasons for several crops. However, for crops like maple syrup, the regions suitable for their cultivation will shift northwards. Despite these projections, studies monitoring the susceptibility of barley to environmental changes, climate variability, and adaptive capacity across Québec are still limited. This study aims to provide a provincial-scale portrait of vulnerability of barley in Québec based on historical growing season precipitation, barley yield, and socioeconomic data (literacy and poverty rates) using a composite statistical model. Growing season precipitation data were downloaded from Ouranos. Barley yield data were collected from the Institut de la Statistique du Québec, and the socio-demographic data were collected from the Advisory Council of Poverty and the Institut de la Statistique du Québec. A vulnerability index with sub-indices (sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity) is deployed. It is hypothesised that (1) vulnerability is inversely associated with adaptive capacity, and (2) the peripheral regions of Québec are more vulnerable and less adaptive to climate stressors. Initial results show that when the vulnerability index for barley is more prominent, the associated index of adaptive capacity is relatively lower. A significant gradient between the peripheral and southern regions of Québec is observed, with vulnerability lowest around Montreal/Laval and gradually increasing towards the peripheral regions. A better understanding of vulnerability warrants a change in approach from focusing solely on climate-related variables to integrating socioeconomic proxies. The challenge, however, has been how to introduce these socioeconomic proxies into empirical and process-based crop models.

An assessment of the predictors of the dynamics in arable production per capita index, arable production and permanent cropland and forest area based on structural equation models.

This study sets out to verify the key predictors of the dynamics of the arable production per capita index, the arable production and permanent crop land and forest area at a national scale in Cameroon. To achieve this objective, data for twelve time series data variables spanning the period 1961-2000 were collected from Oxford University, the United Nations Development program, the World Bank, FAOSTAT and the World Resource Institute. The data were analysed using structural equation models (SEM) based on the two stage least square approach (2SLS). To optimize the results, variables that showed high correlations were dropped because they will not add any new information into the models. The results show that the arable production per capita index is impacted more by population while the influence of rainfall on the arable production per capita index is weak. Arable production and permanent cropland on its part has as the main predictor arable production per capita index. Forest area is seen to be more vulnerable to trade in forest products and logging than any other variable. The models presented in this study are quite reliable because the p and t values are consistent and overall, these results are consistent with previous studies.

Utilization rates and perceptions of (VCT) services in Kisii Central District, Kenya.

Voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) services have been set up in most Districts in Kenya due to the rising surge of HIV/AIDS. However, the use of these services among married persons has not been fully explored. In Kissi, the issue of VCT is pressing as the rate of HIV prevalence is close to 3%. In 2006, about 20 000 clients came for VCT services in Kenya yet only 165 of these were married persons. In the Keumbu sub-district hospital, of the more than 1000 clients that came for VCT services, approximately 29% were married persons. This paper therefore aims at determining the utilization of VCT services by married persons in the study area. The qualitative data was obtained principally through two focus group discussions (FGDs) in which the respondents were asked to comment on their use of VCT services while the quantitative data was obtained from interviews with 245 respondents. The qualitative data was analyzed through verbatim transcription while for the quantitative data; the responses were coded and populated into SPSS from which the frequencies and percentages were calculated. The results show that actual use of the VCT services is low (28.1%) but slightly higher among female respondents than males. The low usage may be attributed to (a) fear of results, (b) death anxiety, (c) lack of confidentiality and lastly, (d) fear of stigmatization. Female respondents were found to have a greater awareness of VCT and thus its potential use.