Laboratory capacity expansion: lessons from establishing molecular testing in regional referral laboratories in Ethiopia.

Respiratory viruses contribute to high morbidity and mortality in Africa. In 2020, the Ohio State University's Global One Health Initiative, in collaboration with the Ethiopian Public Health Institute and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, took action to strengthen Ethiopia's existing respiratory virus surveillance system through decentralization of laboratory testing and scale-up of national and regional capacity for detecting respiratory viruses. In August 2022, four regional laboratories were established, thereby raising the number of reference laboratories conducting respiratory virus surveillance to five. This article highlights lessons learned during implementation and outlines processes undertaken for laboratory scale-up and decentralization.

Regional and temporal variations in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Ethiopia: Lessons learned from the COVID-19 enhanced surveillance and response.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most devastating public health emergencies of international concern to have occurred in the past century. To ensure a safe, scalable, and sustainable response, it is imperative to understand the burden of disease, epidemiological trends, and responses to activities that have already been implemented. We aimed to analyze how COVID-19 tests, cases, and deaths varied by time and region in the general population and healthcare workers (HCWs) in Ethiopia. METHODS: COVID-19 data were captured between October 01, 2021, and September 30, 2022, in 64 systematically selected health facilities throughout Ethiopia. The number of health facilities included in the study was proportionally allocated to the regional states of Ethiopia. Data were captured by standardized tools and formats. Analysis of COVID-19 testing performed, cases detected, and deaths registered by region and time was carried out. RESULTS: We analyzed 215,024 individuals' data that were captured through COVID-19 surveillance in Ethiopia. Of the 215,024 total tests, 18,964 COVID-19 cases (8.8%, 95% CI: 8.7%- 9.0%) were identified and 534 (2.8%, 95% CI: 2.6%- 3.1%) were deceased. The positivity rate ranged from 1% in the Afar region to 15% in the Sidama region. Eight (1.2%, 95% CI: 0.4%- 2.0%) HCWs died out of 664 infected HCWs, of which 81.5% were from Addis Ababa. Three waves of outbreaks were detected during the analysis period, with the highest positivity rate of 35% during the Omicron period and the highest rate of ICU beds and mechanical ventilators (38%) occupied by COVID-19 patients during the Delta period. CONCLUSIONS: The temporal and regional variations in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Ethiopia underscore the need for concerted efforts to address the disparities in the COVID-19 surveillance and response system. These lessons should be critically considered during the integration of the COVID-19 surveillance system into the routine surveillance system.

HIV risk behaviour, viraemia, and transmission across HIV cascade stages including low-level viremia: Analysis of 14 cross-sectional population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in sub-Saharan Africa.

As antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage for people living with HIV (PLHIV) increases, HIV programmes require up-to-date information about evolving HIV risk behaviour and transmission risk, including those with low-level viremia (LLV; >50 to ≤1000 copies/mL), to guide prevention priorities. We aimed to assess differences in sexual risk behaviours, distribution of viral load (VL) and proportion of transmission across PLHIV subgroups. We analysed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in 14 sub-Saharan African countries during 2015-2019. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of self-reported HIV high-risk behaviour (multiple partners and condomless sex) across cascade stages via generalised estimation equations. We modelled the proportions of transmission from each subgroup using relative self-reported sexual risk, a Hill function for transmission rate by VL, and proportions within cascade stages from surveys and UNAIDS country estimates for 2010-2020. Compared to PLHIV with undetectable VL (≤50 copies/mL), undiagnosed PLHIV (aPR women: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.08-1.52]; men: 1.61 [1.33-1.95]) and men diagnosed but untreated (2.06 [1.52-2.78]) were more likely to self-report high-risk sex. High-risk behaviour was not significantly associated with LLV. Mean VL was similar among undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and on ART but non-suppressed sub-groups. Across surveys, undiagnosed and diagnosed but untreated contributed most to transmission (40-91% and 1-41%, respectively), with less than 1% from those with LLV. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of transmission from individuals on ART but non-suppressed increased. In settings with high ART coverage, effective HIV testing, ART linkage, and retention remain priorities to reduce HIV transmission. Persons with LLV are an increasing share of PLHIV but their contribution to HIV transmission was small. Improving suppression among PLHIV on ART with VL ≥1000 copies/mL will become increasingly important.

Predictors of HIV testing among youth 15-24 years in urban Ethiopia, 2017-2018 Ethiopia population-based HIV impact assessment.

INTRODUCTION: Youth (adolescents and young adults) aged 15-24 years comprise approximately 22% of Ethiopia's total population and make up 0.73% of HIV cases in urban Ethiopia. However, only 63% of HIV-positive youth are aware of their HIV status. We describe the HIV testing behaviors of youth 15-24 years and determined the characteristics of those who were most likely to be tested for HIV within the past year. METHODS: Using data from the 2017-2018 Ethiopia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment, we provide survey-weighted estimates and prevalence risk ratios for engagement in HIV testing in the 12 months preceding the survey. We model the likelihood of HIV testing one year or more before the survey compared to never testing, using a multinomial logistic regression model. RESULTS: Among HIV-negative and unaware HIV-positive youth 15-24 years old (N = 7,508), 21.8% [95% Confidence Interval (CI): 20.4-23.3%] reported testing for HIV in the last 12 months. Female youth [Prevalence Ratio (PR) = 1.6, 95% CI: 1.4-1.8], those aged 20-24 years (PR = 2.6, 95% CI:2.3-2.9), and those ever married (PR = 2.8, 95% CI: 2.5-3.1) were more likely to have tested for HIV within the last year. Adjusting for select demographic characteristics, sex with a non-spousal or non-live-in partner [Relative Risk (RR) = 0.3, 95% CI:0.1-0.8] among males did not increase their likelihood to test for HIV in the prior 12 months. Female youth engaged in antenatal care (RR = 3.0, 95% CI: 1.7-5.3) were more likely to test for HIV in the past year. CONCLUSION: The Ethiopian HIV case finding strategy may consider approaches for reaching untested youth, with a specific focus on adolescent males,15-19 years of age. This is critical towards achieving the UNAIDS HIV testing goal of 95% of all individuals living with HIV aware of their status by 2030.

Progress towards the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets among persons aged 50 and older living with HIV in 13 African countries.

INTRODUCTION: Achieving optimal HIV outcomes, as measured by global 90-90-90 targets, that is awareness of HIV-positive status, receipt of antiretroviral (ARV) therapy among aware and viral load (VL) suppression among those on ARVs, respectively, is critical. However, few data from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are available on older people (50+) living with HIV (OPLWH). We examined 90-90-90 progress by age, 15-49 (as a comparison) and 50+ years, with further analyses among 50+ (55-59, 60-64, 65+ vs. 50-54), in 13 countries (Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe). METHODS: Using data from nationally representative Population-based HIV Impact Assessments, conducted between 2015and 2019, participants from randomly selected households provided demographic and clinical information and whole blood specimens for HIV serology, VL and ARV testing. Survey weighted outcomes were estimated for 90-90-90 targets. Country-specific Poisson regression models examined 90-90-90 variation among OPLWH age strata. RESULTS: Analyses included 24,826 HIV-positive individuals (15-49 years: 20,170; 50+ years: 4656). The first, second and third 90 outcomes were achieved in 1, 10 and 5 countries, respectively, by those aged 15-49, while OPLWH achieved outcomes in 3, 13 and 12 countries, respectively. Among those aged 15-49, women were more likely to achieve 90-90-90 targets than men; however, among OPLWH, men were more likely to achieve first and third 90 targets than women, with second 90 achievement being equivalent. Country-specific 90-90-90 regression models among OPLWH demonstrated minimal variation by age stratum across 13 countries. Among OLPWH, no first 90 target differences were noted by age strata; three countries varied in the second 90 by older age strata but not in a consistent direction; one country showed higher achievement of the third 90 in an older age stratum. CONCLUSIONS: While OPLWH in these 13 countries were slightly more likely than younger people to be aware of their HIV-positive status (first 90), this target was not achieved in most countries. However, OPLWH achieved treatment (second 90) and VL suppression (third 90) targets in more countries than PLWH <50. Findings support expanded HIV testing, prevention and treatment services to meet ongoing OPLWH health needs in SSA.

Spatial distribution and determinants of HIV prevalence among adults in urban Ethiopia: Findings from the Ethiopia Population-based HIV Impact Assessment Survey (2017-2018).

The design and evaluation of national HIV programs often rely on aggregated national data, which may obscure localized HIV epidemics. In Ethiopia, even though the national adult HIV prevalence has decreased, little information is available about local areas and subpopulations. To inform HIV prevention efforts for specific populations, we identified geographic locations and drivers of HIV transmission. We used data from adults aged 15-64 years who participated in the Ethiopian Population-based HIV Impact Assessment survey (October 2017-April 2018). Location-related information for the survey clusters was obtained from the 2007 Ethiopia population census. Spatial autocorrelation of HIV prevalence data were analyzed via a Global Moran's I test. Geographically weighted regression analysis was used to show the relationship of covariates. The finding indicated that uncircumcised men in certain hotspot towns and divorced or widowed individuals in hotspot woredas/towns might have contributed to the average increase in HIV prevalence in the hotspot areas. Hotspot analysis findings indicated that, localized, context-specific intervention efforts tailored to at-risk populations, such as divorced or widowed women or uncircumcised men, could decrease HIV transmission and prevalence in urban Ethiopia.

Factors associated with unawareness of HIV-positive status in urban Ethiopia: Evidence from the Ethiopia population-based HIV impact assessment 2017-2018.

BACKGROUND: The HIV epidemic in Ethiopia is concentrated in urban areas. Ethiopia conducted a Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (EPHIA) in urban areas between October 2017 and April 2018 to measure the status of the country's response to the epidemic. METHODS: We conducted field data collection and HIV testing in randomly selected households using the national, rapid testing algorithm with laboratory confirmation of seropositive samples using a supplemental assay. In addition to self-report on HIV diagnosis and treatment, all HIV-positive participants were screened for a set of HIV antiretroviral (ARV) drugs indicative of the first- and second-line regimens. We calculated weighted frequencies and 95% confidence intervals to assess regional variation in participants' level of unawareness of their HIV-positive status (adjusted for ARV status). RESULTS: We interviewed 20,170 survey participants 15-64 years of age, of which 19,136 (95%) were tested for HIV, 614 (3.2%) tested positive, and 119 (21%) of HIV-positive persons were unaware of their HIV status. Progress towards the UNAIDS first 90 target (90% of people living with HIV would be aware of their HIV status by 2020) substantially differed by administrative region of the country. In the bivariate analysis using log binomial regression, three regions (Oromia, Addis Ababa, and Harari), male gender, and young age (15-24 years) were significantly associated with awareness of HIV positive status. In multivariate analysis, the same variables were associated with awareness of HIV-positive status. CONCLUSION: One-fifth of the HIV-positive urban population were unaware of their HIV-positive status. The number of unaware HIV-positive individuals has a different distribution than the HIV prevalence. National and regional planning and monitoring activities could address this potentially substantial source of undetected HIV infection by increasing HIV testing among young people, men and individuals who do not use condoms.

HIV-1 Recent Infection Testing Algorithm With Antiretroviral Drug Detection to Improve Accuracy of Incidence Estimates.

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 incidence calculation currently includes recency classification by HIV-1 incidence assay and unsuppressed viral load (VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL) in a recent infection testing algorithm (RITA). However, persons with recent classification not virally suppressed and taking antiretroviral (ARV) medication may be misclassified. SETTING: We used data from 13 African household surveys to describe the impact of an ARV-adjusted RITA on HIV-1 incidence estimates. METHODS: HIV-seropositive samples were tested for recency using the HIV-1 Limiting Antigen (LAg)-Avidity enzyme immunoassay, HIV-1 viral load, ARVs used in each country, and ARV drug resistance. LAg-recent result was defined as normalized optical density values ≤1.5. We compared HIV-1 incidence estimates using 2 RITA: RITA1: LAg-recent + VL ≥ 1000 copies/mL and RITA2: RITA1 + undetectable ARV. We explored RITA2 with self-reported ARV use and with clinical history. RESULTS: Overall, 357 adult HIV-positive participants were classified as having recent infection with RITA1. RITA2 reclassified 55 (15.4%) persons with detectable ARV as having long-term infection. Those with detectable ARV were significantly more likely to be aware of their HIV-positive status (84% vs. 10%) and had higher levels of drug resistance (74% vs. 26%) than those without detectable ARV. RITA2 incidence was lower than RITA1 incidence (range, 0%-30% decrease), resulting in decreased estimated new infections from 390,000 to 341,000 across the 13 countries. Incidence estimates were similar using detectable or self-reported ARV (R2 > 0.995). CONCLUSIONS: Including ARV in RITA2 improved the accuracy of HIV-1 incidence estimates by removing participants with likely long-term HIV infection.

Unawareness of HIV Infection Among Men Aged 15-59 Years in 13 Sub-Saharan African Countries: Findings From the Population-Based HIV Impact Assessments, 2015-2019.

BACKGROUND: Identifying men living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is critical to end the epidemic. We describe the underlying factors of unawareness among men aged 15-59 years who ever tested for HIV in 13 SSA countries. METHODS: Using pooled data from the nationally representative Population-based HIV Impact Assessments, we fit a log-binomial regression model to identify characteristics related to HIV positivity among HIV-positive unaware and HIV-negative men ever tested for HIV. RESULTS: A total of 114,776 men were interviewed and tested for HIV; 4.4% were HIV-positive. Of those, 33.7% were unaware of their HIV-positive status, (range: 20.2%-58.7%, in Rwanda and Cote d'Ivoire). Most unaware men reported they had ever received an HIV test (63.0%). Age, region, marital status, and education were significantly associated with HIV positivity. Men who had HIV-positive sexual partners (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]: 5.73; confidence interval [95% CI]: 4.13 to 7.95) or sexual partners with unknown HIV status (aPR: 2.32; 95% CI: 1.89 to 2.84) were more likely to be HIV-positive unaware, as were men who tested more than 12 months compared with HIV-negative men who tested within 12 months before the interview (aPR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.91). Tuberculosis diagnosis and not being circumcised were also associated with HIV positivity. CONCLUSION: Targeting subgroups of men at risk for infection who once tested negative could improve yield of testing programs. Interventions include improving partner testing, frequency of testing, outreach and educational strategies, and availability of HIV testing where men are accessing routine health services.

Trend and causes of adult mortality in Kersa health and demographic surveillance system (Kersa HDSS), eastern Ethiopia: verbal autopsy method.

BACKGROUND: The health problems of adults have been neglected in many developing countries, yet many studies in these countries show high rates of premature mortality in adults. Measuring adult mortality and its cause through verbal autopsy (VA) methods is becoming an important process for mortality estimates and is a good indicator of the overall mortality rates in resource-limited settings. The objective of this analysis is to describe the levels, distribution, and trends of adult mortality over time (2008-2013) and causes of adult deaths using VA in Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Kersa HDSS). METHODS: Kersa HDSS is a demographic and health surveillance and research center established in 2007 in the eastern part of Ethiopia. This is a community-based longitudinal study where VA methods were used to assign probable cause of death. Two or three physicians independently assigned cause of death based on the completed VA forms in accordance with the World Health Organization's International Classification of Diseases. In this analysis, the VA data considered were of all deaths of adults age 15 years and above, over a period of six years (2008-2013). The mortality fractions were determined and the causes of death analyzed. Analysis was done using STATA and graphs were designed using Microsoft Excel. RESULTS: A total of 1535 adult deaths occurred in the surveillance site during the study period and VA was completed for all these deaths. In general, the adult mortality rate over the six-year period was 8.5 per 1000 adult population, higher for males (9.6) and rural residents (8.6) than females (7.5) and urban residents (8.2). There is a general decrease in the mortality rates over the study period from 9.4 in 2008-2009 to 8.1 in 2012-2013. Out of the total deaths, about one-third (32.4%) occurred due to infectious and parasitic causes, and the second leading cause of death was diseases of circulatory system (11.4%), followed by gastrointestinal disorders (9.2%). Tuberculosis (TB) showed an increasing trend over the years and has been the leading cause of death in 2012 and 2013 for all adult age categories (15-49, 50-64, and 65 years and over). Chronic liver disease (CLD) was indicated as leading cause of death among adults in the age group 15-49 years. CONCLUSION: The increasing TB-related mortality in the study years as well as the relative high mortality due to CLD among adults of age 15-49 years should be further investigated and triangulated with health service data to understand the root cause of death.