Wildfire prediction using zero-inflated negative binomial mixed models: Application to Spain.

Wildfires have changed in recent decades. The catastrophic wildfires make it necessary to have accurate predictive models on a country scale to organize firefighting resources. In Mediterranean countries, the number of wildfires is quite high but they are mainly concentrated around summer months. Because of seasonality, there are territories where the number of fires is zero in some months and is overdispersed in others. Zero-inflated negative binomial mixed models are adapted to this type of data because they can describe patterns that explain both number of fires and their non-occurrence and also provide useful prediction tools. In addition to model-based predictions, a parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating mean squared errors and constructing prediction intervals. The statistical methodology and developed software are applied to model and to predict number of wildfires in Spain between 2002 and 2015 by provinces and months.

Cardio-renal benefits of sacubitril/valsartan in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease: experience in daily clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: The association between cardiac complications, such as heart failure (HF), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) is well known. In this study, we examined the effectiveness and safety of treatment with neprilysin inhibition in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (stage 3b-4). METHODS: This single-centre, longitudinal, retrospective study of 31 months duration involved consecutive patients with CKD and HF with a reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) who started treatment with sacubitril/valsartan. Glomerular filtration rate (GFR), cardiovascular risk factors, proteinuria, potassium, echocardiographic parameters and admissions for heart failure were analysed. RESULTS: The study comprised 25 patients with a median age of 73.2 ± 5.9 years. The most frequent aetiology of heart failure was ischemic heart disease. The median GFR was 29.4 ± 8.3 ml/min/1.73 m2 and the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 36.4 ± 8.9%. The GFR improved after initiating the treatment (F = 3.396, p = 0.019), as did the LVEF at one year of follow-up (p = 0.018). The number of visits to the emergency department for heart failure was also reduced. No patients needed to start renal replacement therapy. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that sacubitril/valsartan may play a beneficial role in patients who have advanced CKD and HFrEF, with a satisfactory safety profile.

Small area estimation of expenditure means and ratios under a unit-level bivariate linear mixed model.

Under a unit-level bivariate linear mixed model, this paper introduces small area predictors of expenditure means and ratios, and derives approximations and estimators of the corresponding mean squared errors. For the considered model, the REML estimation method is implemented. Several simulation experiments, designed to analyze the behavior of the introduced fitting algorithm, predictors and mean squared error estimators, are carried out. An application to real data from the Spanish household budget survey illustrates the behavior of the proposed statistical methodology. The target is the estimation of means of food and non-food household annual expenditures and of ratios of food household expenditures by Spanish provinces.

Emotional Intelligence as a Predictor of Motivation, Anxiety and Leadership in Athletes.

Nowadays, emotional intelligence is not only understood as the recognition of our own emotions but also the regulation of these emotions. In the field of sports, the concept of sports leadership is increasingly relevant, understood as a behavioral and cognitive process closely related to sports success, based on interpersonal relationships, trust, respect and the feeling of coherence. In this study, we intend to analyze the relationship between sports success and emotional intelligence to verify their relationship and the influence of other variables such as sports anxiety. As a sample, we took a total of 165 active sportsmen and women studying for both undergraduate and master's degrees related to the sciences of physical activity and sport. The expected results aim to demonstrate the relationship between emotional intelligence, sports leadership and sports anxiety.

Family and School Relationship during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review.

Education systems worldwide have been affected by a sudden interruption in classroom learning because the coronavirus pandemic forced both the closure of all schools in March 2020 and the beginning of distance learning from home, thus compelling families, schools, and students to work together in a more coordinated fashion. The present systematic review was carried out following PRISMA guidelines. The main objective was to present critical information on the relationship between the family and the school in the face of the imposed distance learning scenario caused by COVID-19. A total of 25 articles dealing with the relationships established during the pandemic of any of the three agents involved (family, students, and school) were analysed. The results showed that the relationships between the three groups involved must be improved to some extent to meet the needs that have arisen as a result of distance learning. In conclusion, the educational scenario during the pandemic has been one of the most significant challenges experienced in the recent history of education.

Monoclonal gammopathy of renal significance: Early diagnosis is key / Gammapatía monoclonal de significado renal: la clave es el diagnóstico precoz

Monoclonal gammopathy of renal significance is a clinical–pathological entity grouping renal disorders secondary to the secretion of a monoclonal immunoglobulin synthesized by a B-cell-derived clone and/or plasma cells in a patient with no diagnostic criteria for multiple myeloma. This term applies to a concept recently introduced owing to the need to differentiate this entity from monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, given the negative prognostic impact of its high morbidity and mortality resulting from both renal and systemic involvement, occasionally even progressing to advanced chronic kidney disease. The renal damage occurs via both direct pathogenic mechanisms, with the deposition of the monoclonal protein in different renal structures, as well as indirect mechanisms, acting as an autoantibody provoking dysregulation of the alternative complement pathway. The detection of this monoclonal protein and an early hematologic study are essential, as is the need for a kidney biopsy to establish the associated nephropathological diagnosis. Consequently, this then leads to the start of specific hematologic treatment to detain the production of the monoclonal protein and minimize renal and systemic injury. (AU)

La gammapatía monoclonal de significado renal es una entidad clínico-patológica que agrupa los trastornos renales secundarios a la secreción de una inmunoglobulina monoclonal sintetizada por un clon derivado de células B y/o células plasmáticas en un paciente sin criterios de diagnóstico de mieloma múltiple. Este término se aplica a un concepto introducido recientemente debido a la necesidad de diferenciar esta entidad de la gammapatía monoclonal de significado incierto, teniendo en cuenta el impacto pronóstico negativo de su alta morbilidad y mortalidad a causa de la afectación tanto renal como sistémica, llegando en ocasiones a progresar a una enfermedad renal crónica avanzada. El daño renal se produce tanto por mecanismos patogénicos directos, con el depósito de la proteína monoclonal en diferentes estructuras renales, como por mecanismos indirectos, actuando como un autoanticuerpo que provoca la desregulación de la vía alternativa del complemento. La detección de esta proteína monoclonal y un estudio hematológico precoz son imprescindibles, así como la necesidad de una biopsia renal para establecer el diagnóstico nefropatológico asociado. En consecuencia, esto lleva al inicio de un tratamiento hematológico específico para detener la síntesis de la proteína monoclonal y minimizar la lesión renal y sistémica. (AU)

Monoclonal gammopathy of renal significance: Early diagnosis is key.

Monoclonal gammopathy of renal significance is a clinical-pathological entity grouping renal disorders secondary to the secretion of a monoclonal immunoglobulin synthesized by a B-cell-derived clone and/or plasma cells in a patient with no diagnostic criteria for multiple myeloma. This term applies to a concept recently introduced owing to the need to differentiate this entity from monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance, given the negative prognostic impact of its high morbidity and mortality resulting from both renal and systemic involvement, occasionally even progressing to advanced chronic kidney disease. The renal damage occurs via both direct pathogenic mechanisms, with the deposition of the monoclonal protein in different renal structures, as well as indirect mechanisms, acting as an autoantibody provoking dysregulation of the alternative complement pathway. The detection of this monoclonal protein and an early hematologic study are essential, as is the need for a kidney biopsy to establish the associated nephropathological diagnosis. Consequently, this then leads to the start of specific hematologic treatment to detain the production of the monoclonal protein and minimize renal and systemic injury.

Carbon Footprint of a Port Infrastructure from a Life Cycle Approach.

One of the most important consequences caused by the constant development of human activity is the uncontrolled generation of greenhouse gases (GHG). The main gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O) are illustrated by the carbon footprint. To determine the impact of port infrastructures, a Life Cycle Assessment approach is applied that considers construction and maintenance. A case study of a port infrastructure in Spain is analyzed. Main results reflect the continuous emission of GHG throughout the useful life of the infrastructure (25 years). Both machinery (85%) and materials (15%) are key elements influencing the obtained results (117,000 Tm CO2e).

Gender based differences, pharmacogenetics and adverse events in chronic pain management.

Safety data in chronic non-cancer pain (CNCP) with long-term opioid therapy has been poorly studied and can be differently influenced by gender. Furthermore, pharmacogenetics (PGx) could possibly be used to tailor pain medication based on the individual's genetic background. The aim was to assess whether PGx applied to a pharmacovigilance system could help to improve a patient's security profile. A pharmacovigilance data recording system was conducted over 24 months, including genotyping of OPRM1 variants (opioid receptor, A118G) and COMT (enzyme that degrades catecholamines such as norepinephrine, G1947A). Pain intensity (visual analogue scale, VAS), morphine equivalent daily dose (MEDD), adverse events (AEs) and suspected adverse drug reactions (ADRs) were recorded and analysed by gender. The Ethics Committee approved the study and data were analysed with R 3.6.0 software. A total of 748 patients were recruited in the study (67% female, VAS 62 ± 29 mm, MEDD 119 ± 114 mg/day) reporting a median of 6 (3.5-9) AEs/patient. Women presented more nausea, headaches, insomnia, loss of appetite, weight change, depression and dizziness than men. Analysis by genotype demonstrated that PGx influenced the prevalence of vomiting and depression in men, dizziness in women and sexual dysfunction in both. Physicians notified 150 ADRs mostly in females (79%) related to nervous system disorders. PGx applied to a pharmacovigilance recording system provides important information to achieve a better knowledge about AEs in CNCP pharmacological therapy. OPRM1 and COMT polymorphisms were associated with AEs in CNCP patients that differed according to gender.

C3 glomerulonephritis associated with monoclonal gammopathy of renal significance: case report.

BACKGROUND: Morbidity associated with monoclonal gammopathy of renal significance is high due to the severe renal lesions and the associated systemic alterations. Accordingly, early diagnosis is fundamental, as is stopping the clonal production of immunoglobulins using specific chemotherapy. CASE PRESENTATION: A 75-year-old man with chronic renal disease of unknown origin since 2010 experienced rapid worsening of renal function over a period of 6 mos. Bone marrow biopsy showed monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance. Kidney biopsy showed the presence of C3 glomerulonephritis, with exclusive deposits of C3 visible on immunofluorescence and a membranoproliferative pattern on light microscopy. Skin biopsy showed endothelial deposition of complement. Given both the renal and cutaneous involvement the patient was considered to have monoclonal gammopathy of renal significance. We considered an underlying pathogenic mechanism for the renal alteration secondary to activation of the alternative complement pathway by the anomalous immunoglobulin. Despite treatment with plasmapheresis, bortezomib and steroids, advanced chronic kidney disease developed. CONCLUSIONS: The possible underlying cause of the monoclonal gammopathy of renal significance suggests that monoclonal gammopathy should be considered in adult patients with membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis.

Performance of Sustainable Fly Ash and Slag Cement Mortars Exposed to Simulated and Real In Situ Mediterranean Conditions along 90 Warm Season Days.

Nowadays, cement manufacture is one of the most polluting worldwide industrial sectors. In order to reduce its CO2 emissions, the clinker replacement by ground granulated blast-furnace slag and fly ash is becoming increasingly common. Both additions are well-studied when the hardening conditions of cementitious materials are optimum. Therefore, the main objective of this research was to study the short-term effects of exposure, to both laboratory simulated and real in situ Mediterranean climate environments, on the microstructure and durability-related properties of mortars made using commercial slag and fly ash cements, as well as ordinary Portland cement. The real in situ condition consisted of placing the samples at approximately 100 m away from the Mediterranean Sea. The microstructure was analysed using mercury intrusion porosimetry. The effective porosity, the capillary suction coefficient and the non-steady state chloride migration coefficient were also studied. In view of the results obtained, the non-optimum laboratory simulated Mediterranean environment was a good approach to the real in situ one. Finally, mortars prepared using sustainable cements with slag and fly ash exposed to both Mediterranean climate environments, showed adequate service properties in the short-term (90 days), similar to or even better than those in mortars made with ordinary Portland cement.

Cost and effectiveness of lung lobectomy by video-assisted thoracic surgery for lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS) emerged as a minimally invasive surgery for diseases in the field of thoracic surgery. We herein reviewed our experience on thoracoscopic lobectomy for early lung cancer and evaluated Health System use. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness study was performed comparing VATS vs. open thoracic surgery (OPEN) for lung cancer patients. Demographic data, tumor localization, dynamic pulmonary function tests [forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), diffusion capacity (DLCO) and maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max)], surgical approach, postoperative details, and complications were recorded and analyzed. RESULTS: One hundred seventeen patients underwent lung resection by VATS (n=42, 36%; age: 63±9 years old, 57% males) or OPEN (n=75, 64%; age: 61±11 years old, 73% males). Pulmonary function tests decreased just after surgery with a parallel increasing tendency during first 12 months. VATS group tended to recover FEV1 and FVC quicker with significantly less clinical and post-surgical complications (31% vs. 53%, P=0.015). Costs including surgery and associated hospital stay, complications and costs in the 12 months after surgery were significantly lower for VATS (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The VATS approach surgery allowed earlier recovery at a lower cost than OPEN with a better cost-effectiveness profile.

Long-Term Behaviour of Fly Ash and Slag Cement Grouts for Micropiles Exposed to a Sulphate Aggressive Medium.

Nowadays, one of the most popular ways to get a more sustainable cement industry is using additions as cement replacement. However, there are many civil engineering applications in which the use of sustainable cements is not extended yet, such as special foundations, and particularly micropiles, even though the standards do not restrict the cement type to use. These elements are frequently exposed to the sulphates present in soils. The purpose of this research is to study the effects in the very long-term (until 600 days) of sulphate attack in the microstructure of micropiles grouts, prepared with ordinary Portland cement, fly ash and slag commercial cements, continuing a previous work, in which these effects were studied in the short-term. The microstructure changes have been analysed with the non-destructive impedance spectroscopy technique, mercury intrusion porosimetry and the "Wenner" resistivity test. The mass variation and the compressive strength have also been studied. The impedance spectroscopy has been the most sensitive technique for following the sulphate attack process. Considering the results obtained, micropiles grouts with slag and fly ash, exposed to an aggressive medium with high content of sulphates, have shown good behaviour in the very long-term (600 days) compared to grouts made with OPC.

Influence of Silica Fume Addition in the Long-Term Performance of Sustainable Cement Grouts for Micropiles Exposed to a Sulphate Aggressive Medium.

At present, sustainability is of major importance in the cement industry, and the use of additions such as silica fume as clinker replacement contributes towards that goal. Special foundations, and particularly micropiles, are one of the most suitable areas for the use of sustainable cements. The aim of this research is to analyse the effects in the very long-term (for 600 days) produced by sulphate attack in the microstructure of grouts for micropiles in which OPC (ordinary Portland cement) has been replaced by 5% and 10% silica fume. This line of study is building on a previous work, where these effects were studied in slag and fly ash grouts. Grouts made using a commercial sulphate-resisting Portland cement were also studied. The non-destructive impedance spectroscopy technique, mercury intrusion porosimetry, and Wenner resistivity testing were used. Mass variation and the compressive strength have also been analysed. Apparently, impedance spectroscopy is the most suitable technique for studying sulphate attack development. According to the results obtained, grouts for micropiles with a content of silica fume up to 10% and exposed to an aggressive sulphate medium, have a similar or even better behaviour in the very long-term, compared to grouts prepared using sulphate-resisting Portland cement.

Effect of Nisin and Thermal Treatments on the Heat Resistance of Clostridium sporogenes Spores.

The aim of this research was to evaluate the effect of thermal treatments (isothermal or nonisothermal) combined with nisin, a natural antimicrobial, on the survival and recovery of Clostridium sporogenes spores. The addition of nisin to the heating medium at concentrations up to 0.1 mg liter(-1) did not reduce the heat resistance of C. sporogenes. Without a thermal treatment, nisin added at concentrations up to 0.1 mg liter(-1) did not reduce the viable counts of C. sporogenes when added to the recovery medium, but inactivation of more than 4 log cycles was achieved after only 3 s at 100°C. At 100°C, the time needed to reduce viable counts by more than 3 log cycles was nine times shorter when 0.01 mg liter(-1) nisin was added to the recovery medium than without it. The heat resistance values calculated under isothermal conditions were used to predict the survival in the nonisothermal experiments, and the predicted values accurately fit the experimental data. The combination of nisin with a thermal treatment can help control C. sporogenes.

Comparison of Primary Models to Predict Microbial Growth by the Plate Count and Absorbance Methods.

The selection of a primary model to describe microbial growth in predictive food microbiology often appears to be subjective. The objective of this research was to check the performance of different mathematical models in predicting growth parameters, both by absorbance and plate count methods. For this purpose, growth curves of three different microorganisms (Bacillus cereus, Listeria monocytogenes, and Escherichia coli) grown under the same conditions, but with different initial concentrations each, were analysed. When measuring the microbial growth of each microorganism by optical density, almost all models provided quite high goodness of fit (r(2) > 0.93) for all growth curves. The growth rate remained approximately constant for all growth curves of each microorganism, when considering one growth model, but differences were found among models. Three-phase linear model provided the lowest variation for growth rate values for all three microorganisms. Baranyi model gave a variation marginally higher, despite a much better overall fitting. When measuring the microbial growth by plate count, similar results were obtained. These results provide insight into predictive microbiology and will help food microbiologists and researchers to choose the proper primary growth predictive model.

Effect of thymol in heating and recovery media on the isothermal and non-isothermal heat resistance of Bacillus spores.

Members of the genus Bacillus include important food-borne pathogen and spoilage microorganisms for food industry. Essential oils are natural products extracted from herbs and spices, which can be used as natural preservatives in many foods because of their antibacterial, antifungal, antioxidant and anti-carcinogenic properties. The aim of this research was to explore the effect of the addition of different concentrations of thymol to the heating and recovery media on the thermal resistance of spores of Bacillus cereus, Bacillus licheniformis and Bacillus subtilis at different temperatures. While the heat resistance was hardly reduced when thymol was present in the heating medium, the effect in the recovery medium was greater, reducing the D100 °C values down to one third for B. subtilis and B. cereus when 0.5 mM thymol was added. This effect was dose dependent and was also observed at other heating temperatures.

Combined effect of nisin, carvacrol and a previous thermal treatment on the growth of Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella senftenberg.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the combined effect of a previous mild heat treatment (15 min at 55 ) with the use of antimicrobials, nisin and carvacrol, on the growth of Salmonella enteritidis and Salmonella senftenberg. Natural antimicrobials, alone or combined with a previous mild heat treatment, affected the growth of these two serovars in Tryptone Soy Broth at 37 . Increasing concentrations of carvacrol had a significant effect on both growth rate and lag phase duration of both strains. The time to reach stationary phase was almost doubled in the case of S. enteritidis when a concentration of 0.77 mM in carvacrol was added. For S. senftenberg the effect was smaller. The effect of nisin and of heat, applied individually, was lower for both microorganisms. A combination of 1.2 µM nisin with 0.77 mM carvacrol significantly delayed the growth of heat treated cells, compared to the control without antimicrobials, showing additive effects.

Effect of the medium characteristics and the heating and cooling rates on the nonisothermal heat resistance of Bacillus sporothermodurans IC4 spores.

In recent years, highly thermo-resistant mesophilic spore-forming bacteria belonging to the species Bacillus sporothermodurans have caused non-sterility problems in industrial sterilization processes. The aim of this research was to evaluate the effect of the heating medium characteristics (pH and buffer/food) on the thermal inactivation of B. sporothermodurans spores when exposed to isothermal and non-isothermal heating and cooling treatments and the suitability of non-linear Weibull and Geeraaerd models to predict the survivors of these thermal treatments. Thermal treatments were carried out in pH 3, 5 and 7 McIlvaine buffer and in a courgette soup. Isothermal survival curves showed shoulders that were accurately characterized by means of both models. A clear effect of the pH of the heating medium was observed, decreasing the D120 value from pH 7 to pH 3 buffer down to one third. Differences in heat resistance were similar, regardless of the model used and were kept at all temperatures tested. The heat resistance in courgette soup was similar to that shown in pH 7 buffer. When the heat resistance values obtained under isothermal conditions were used to predict the survival in the non-isothermical experiments, the predictions estimated the experimental data quite accurately, both with Weibull and Geeraerd models.