Multiple Prenatal Exposures and Acute Care Clinical Encounters for Asthma among Children Born to Mothers Living near a Superfund Site.

Prenatal exposures are associated with childhood asthma, and risk may increase with simultaneous exposures. Pregnant women living in lower-income communities tend to have elevated exposures to a range of potential asthma risk factors, which may interact in complex ways. We examined the association between prenatal exposures and the risk of childhood asthma acute care clinical encounters (hospitalization, emergency department visit, observational stay) using conditional logistic regression with a multivariable smooth to model the interaction between continuous variables, adjusted for maternal characteristics, and stratified by sex. All births near the New Bedford Harbor (NBH) Superfund site (2000-2006) were followed through 2011 using the Massachusetts Pregnancy to Early Life Longitudinal data system to identify children ages 5-11 with asthma acute care clinical encounters (265 cases among 7,787 with follow-up). Hazard ratios (HRs) were higher for children living closer to the NBH with higher cord blood Pb levels than children living further away from the NBH with lower Pb levels (P<0.001). HRs were highest for girls (HR=4.17, 95% CI: 3.60, 4.82) compared to boys (HR=1.72, 95% CI: 1.46, 2.02). Our results suggest that prenatal Pb exposure in combination with residential proximity to the NBH is associated with childhood asthma acute care clinical encounters.

Evaluating COVID-19 Risk to Essential Workers by Occupational Group: A Case Study in Massachusetts.

Occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2 varies by profession, but "essential workers" are often considered in aggregate in COVID-19 models. This aggregation complicates efforts to understand risks to specific types of workers or industries and target interventions, specifically towards non-healthcare workers. We used census tract-resolution American Community Survey data to develop novel essential worker categories among the occupations designated as COVID-19 Essential Services in Massachusetts. Census tract-resolution COVID-19 cases and deaths were provided by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health. We evaluated the association between essential worker categories and cases and deaths over two phases of the pandemic from March 2020 to February 2021 using adjusted mixed-effects negative binomial regression, controlling for other sociodemographic risk factors. We observed elevated COVID-19 case incidence in census tracts in the highest tertile of workers in construction/transportation/buildings maintenance (Phase 1: IRR 1.32 [95% CI 1.22, 1.42]; Phase 2: IRR: 1.19 [1.13, 1.25]), production (Phase 1: IRR: 1.23 [1.15, 1.33]; Phase 2: 1.18 [1.12, 1.24]), and public-facing sales and services occupations (Phase 1: IRR: 1.14 [1.07, 1.21]; Phase 2: IRR: 1.10 [1.06, 1.15]). We found reduced case incidence associated with greater percentage of essential workers able to work from home (Phase 1: IRR: 0.85 [0.78, 0.94]; Phase 2: IRR: 0.83 [0.77, 0.88]). Similar trends exist in the associations between essential worker categories and deaths, though attenuated. Estimating industry-specific risk for essential workers is important in targeting interventions for COVID-19 and other diseases and our categories provide a reproducible and straightforward way to support such efforts.

Facilitators and Barriers for Keeping Cool in an Urban Heat Island: Perspectives from Residents of an Environmental Justice Community.

Background: Extreme heat is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality during summer months in the United States. Risk of heat exposure and associated health outcomes are disproportionately experienced by people with lower incomes, people of color, and/or immigrant populations. Methods: As qualitative research on the experiences of residents in heat islands is limited, this community-based study examined barriers and coping strategies for keeping cool among residents of Chelsea and East Boston, Massachusetts-environmental justice (EJ) areas that experience the urban heat island effect-through semistructured interviews and qualitative content analysis. Results: Results indicate that all participants (n = 12) had air conditioning, but high energy bills contributed to low use. Eight participants were self-described heat-sensitive, with five experiencing poor health in heat. In addition, nine reported insufficient hydration due to work schedules, distaste of water, or perceptions of it being unsafe. Discussion: This research highlights the importance of understanding perceptions of residents in EJ communities to contextualize vulnerability and identify multipronged heat coping strategies and targeted interventions.

Simulating Energy Use, Indoor Temperatures, and Utility Cost Impacts Amidst a Warming Climate in a Multi-family Housing Model.

Rising ambient temperatures due to climate change will impact both indoor temperatures and heating and cooling utility costs. In traditionally colder climates, there are potential tradeoffs in how to meet the reduced heating and increased cooling demands, and issues related to lack of air conditioning (AC) access in older homes and among lower-income populations to prevent extreme heat exposure. We modeled a typical multi-family home in Boston (MA) in the building simulation program EnergyPlus to assess indoor temperature and energy consumption in current (2020) and projected future (2050) weather conditions. Selected households were those without AC (no AC), those who ran AC sometimes (some AC), and those with sufficient resources to run AC always (full AC). We considered stylized cooling subsidy policies that allowed households to move between groups, both independently and in conjunction with energy efficiency retrofits. Results showed that future weather conditions without policy changes yielded an increase in indoor summer temperatures of 2.1 °C (no AC), increased cooling demand (range: 34-50%), but led to a decrease in net yearly total utility costs per apartment (range: - $21 to - $38). Policies that allowed households to move to greater AC utilization yielded average indoor summer temperature decreases (- 3.5 °C to - 6.2 °C) and net yearly total utility increases (range: + $2 to + $94) per apartment unit, with greater savings for retrofitted homes primarily due to large decreases in heating use. Our model results reinforce the importance of coordinated public policies addressing climate change that have an equity lens for both health and climate goals.

School Greenness and Student-Level Academic Performance: Evidence From the Global South.

Greenspace in schools might enhance students' academic performance. However, the literature-dominated by ecological studies at the school level in countries from the Northern Hemisphere-presents mixed evidence of a beneficial association. We evaluated the association between school greenness and student-level academic performance in Santiago, Chile, a capital city of the Global South. This cross-sectional study included 281,695 fourth-grade students attending 1,498 public, charter, and private schools in Santiago city between 2014 and 2018. Student-level academic performance was assessed using standardized test scores and indicators of attainment of learning standards in mathematics and reading. School greenness was estimated using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Linear and generalized linear mixed-effects models were fit to evaluate associations, adjusting for individual- and school-level sociodemographic factors. Analyses were stratified by school type. In fully adjusted models, a 0.1 increase in school greenness was associated with higher test scores in mathematics (36.9 points, 95% CI: 2.49; 4.88) and in reading (1.84 points, 95% CI: 0.73; 2.95); as well as with higher odds of attaining learning standards in mathematics (OR: 1.20, 95% CI: 1.12; 1.28) and reading (OR: 1.07, 95% CI: 1.02; 1.13). Stratified analysis showed differences by school type, with associations of greater magnitude and strength for students attending public schools. No significant associations were detected for students in private schools. Higher school greenness was associated with improved individual-level academic outcomes among elementary-aged students in a capital city in South America. Our results highlight the potential of greenness in the school environment to moderate educational and environmental inequalities in urban areas.

Influence of geospatial resolution on sociodemographic predictors of COVID-19 in Massachusetts.

PURPOSE: When studying health risks across a large geographic region such as a state or province, researchers often assume that finer-resolution data on health outcomes and risk factors will improve inferences by avoiding ecological bias and other issues associated with geographic aggregation. However, coarser-resolution data (e.g., at the town or county-level) are more commonly publicly available and packaged for easier access, allowing for rapid analyses. The advantages and limitations of using finer-resolution data, which may improve precision at the cost of time spent gaining access and processing data, have not been considered in detail to date. METHODS: We systematically examine the implications of conducting town-level mixed-effect regression analyses versus census-tract-level analyses to study sociodemographic predictors of COVID-19 in Massachusetts. In a series of negative binomial regressions, we vary the spatial resolution of the outcome, the resolution of variable selection, and the resolution of the random effect to allow for more direct comparison across models. RESULTS: We find stability in some estimates across scenarios, changes in magnitude, direction, and significance in others, and tighter confidence intervals on the census-tract level. Conclusions regarding sociodemographic predictors are robust when regions of high concentration remain consistent across town and census-tract resolutions. CONCLUSIONS: Inferences about high-risk populations may be misleading if derived from town- or county-resolution data, especially for covariates that capture small subgroups (e.g., small racial minority populations) or are geographically concentrated or skewed (e.g., % college students). Our analysis can help inform more rapid and efficient use of public health data by identifying when finer-resolution data are truly most informative, or when coarser-resolution data may be misleading.

Urban green space and albedo impacts on surface temperature across seven United States cities.

Extreme heat represents a growing threat to public health, especially across the densely populated, developed landscape of cities. Climate adaptation strategies that aim to manage urban microclimates through purposeful design can reduce the heat exposure of urban populations, however, it is unclear how the temperature impacts of urban green space and albedo vary across cities and background climate. This study quantifies the sensitivity of surface temperature to landcover characteristics tied to two widely used climate adaptation strategies, urban greening and albedo manipulation (e.g. white roofs), by combining long-term remote sensing observations of land surface temperature, albedo, and moisture with high-resolution landcover datasets in a spatial regression analysis at the census block scale across seven United States cities. We find tree cover to have an average cooling impact of -0.089 K per % cover, which is approximately four times stronger than the average grass cover cooling impact of -0.021 K per % cover. Variability in the magnitude of grass cover cooling impacts was primarily a function of vegetation moisture content, with the Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) explaining 89 % of the variability in grass cover cooling impacts across cities. Variability in tree cover cooling impacts was primarily a function of sunlight and vegetation moisture content, with solar irradiance and LSWI explaining 97 % of the cooling variability across cities. Albedo cooling impacts were consistent across cities with an average cooling impact of -0.187 K per increase of 0.01. While these interventions are broadly effective across cities, there are critical regional trade-offs between vegetation cooling efficiency, irrigation requirements, and the temporal duration and evolution of the cooling benefits. In warm, arid cities, high albedo surfaces offer multifaceted benefits such as cooling and water conservation, whereas temperate, mesic cities likely benefit from a combination of strategies, with greening efforts targeting highly paved neighborhoods.

Missing Race and Ethnicity Data among COVID-19 Cases in Massachusetts.

Infectious disease surveillance frequently lacks complete information on race and ethnicity, making it difficult to identify health inequities. Greater awareness of this issue has occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic, during which inequities in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were reported but with evidence of substantial missing demographic details. Although the problem of missing race and ethnicity data in COVID-19 cases has been well documented, neither its spatiotemporal variation nor its particular drivers have been characterized. Using individual-level data on confirmed COVID-19 cases in Massachusetts from March 2020 to February 2021, we show how missing race and ethnicity data: (1) varied over time, appearing to increase sharply during two different periods of rapid case growth; (2) differed substantially between towns, indicating a nonrandom distribution; and (3) was associated significantly with several individual- and town-level characteristics in a mixed-effects regression model, suggesting a combination of personal and infrastructural drivers of missing data that persisted despite state and federal data-collection mandates. We discuss how a variety of factors may contribute to persistent missing data but could potentially be mitigated in future contexts.

Mixed methods assessment of personal heat exposure, sleep, physical activity, and heat adaptation strategies among urban residents in the Boston area, MA.

The growing frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events necessitates interventions to reduce heat exposures. Local opportunities for heat adaptation may be optimally identified through collection of both quantitative exposure metrics and qualitative data on perceptions of heat. In this study, we used mixed methods to characterize heat exposure among urban residents in the area of Boston, Massachusetts, US, in summer 2020. Repeated interviews of N = 24 study participants ascertained heat vulnerability and adaptation strategies. Participants also used low-cost sensors to collect temperature, location, sleep, and physical activity data. We saw significant differences across temperature metrics: median personal temperature exposures were 3.9 °C higher than median ambient weather station temperatures. Existing air conditioning (AC) units did not adequately control indoor temperatures to desired thermostat levels: even with AC use, indoor maximum temperatures increased by 0.24 °C per °C of maximum outdoor temperature. Sleep duration was not associated with indoor or outdoor temperature. On warmer days, we observed a range of changes in time-at-home, expected given our small study size. Interview results further indicated opportunities for heat adaptation interventions including AC upgrades, hydration education campaigns, and amelioration of energy costs during high heat periods. Our mixed methods design informs heat adaptation interventions tailored to the challenges faced by residents in the study area. The strength of our community-academic partnership was a large part of the success of the mixed methods approach.

Medicaid Expansion and Change in Federally Qualified Health Center Accessibility From 2008 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: The Affordable Care Act expanded health coverage for low-income residents through Medicaid expansion and increased funding for Health Center Program New Access Points from 2009 to 2015, improving federally qualified health center (FQHC) accessibility. The extent to which these provisions progressed synergistically as intended when states could opt out of Medicaid expansion is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To compare change in FQHC accessibility among census tracts in Medicaid expansion and nonexpansion states. RESEARCH DESIGN: Tract-level FQHC accessibility scores for 2008 and 2016 were estimated applying the 2-step floating catchment area method to American Community Survey and Health Resources and Services Administration data. Multivariable linear regression compared changes in FQHC accessibility between tracts in Medicaid expansion and nonexpansion states, adjusting for sociodemographic and health system factors and accounting for state-level clustering. SUBJECTS: In total, 7058 census tracts across 10 states. RESULTS: FQHC accessibility increased comparably among tracts in Medicaid expansion and nonexpansion states (coef: 0.3; 95% CI: -0.3, 0.8; P -value: 0.36). FQHC accessibility increased more in tracts with higher poverty and uninsured rates, and those with lower proportions of non-English speakers and Black or African American residents. CONCLUSION: Similar gains in FQHC accessibility across Medicaid expansion and nonexpansion states indicate improvements progressed independently from Medicaid expansion, rather than synergistically as expected. Accessibility increases appeared consistent with HRSA's goal to improve access for individuals experiencing economic barriers to health care but not for those experiencing cultural or language barriers to health care.

Mapping the gaps between cooling benefits of urban greenspace and population heat vulnerability.

We provide a novel method to assess the heat mitigation impacts of greenspace though studying the mechanisms of ecosystems responsible for benefits and connecting them to heat exposure metrics. We demonstrate how the ecosystem services framework can be integrated into current practices of environmental health research using supply/demand state-of-the-art methods of ecological modeling of urban greenspace. We compared the supply of cooling ecosystem services in Boston measured through an indicator of high resolution evapotranspiration modeling, with the demand for benefits from cooling measured as a heat exposure risk score based on exposure, hazard and population characteristics. The resulting evapotranspiration indicator follows a pattern similar to conventional greenspace indicators based on vegetation abundance, except in warmer areas such as those with higher levels of impervious surface. We identified demand-supply mismatch areas across the city of Boston, some coinciding with affordable housing complexes and long term care facilities. This novel ES-framework provides cross-disciplinary methods to prioritize urban areas where greenspace interventions can have the most impact based on heat-related demand.

Impact of meteorology on indoor air quality, energy use, and health in a typical mid-rise multi-family home in the eastern United States.

Heating and cooling requirement differences across climates not only have carbon emissions and energy efficiency implications but also impact indoor air quality (IAQ) and health. Energy and IAQ building simulation models help understand tradeoffs or co-benefits, but these have not been applied to evaluate climate zone or multi-family home differences. We modeled a four-story multi-family home in six U.S. climate zones and quantified energy, IAQ, and health outcomes with EnergyPlus, CONTAM, and a pediatric asthma systems science model. Pollutant sources included cooking and ambient. Outputs were daily PM2.5 and NO2 indoor concentrations, infiltration, energy for heating and cooling, and asthma exacerbations, which were compared across climate zones, apartment units, and resident behaviors. Daily ambient-sourced PM2.5 decreased and cooking-sourced PM2.5 increased with higher ambient temperatures. Infiltration air changes per hour were higher on the first versus the fourth floor and in colder climates. Window opening during cooking led to decreases in total pollutant concentrations (11%-18% for PM2.5 and 9%-15% for NO2 ), 3%-4% decreases in asthma exacerbations within climate zones, and minimal impacts on cooling, but led to increased heating demand (4%-8%). Our results demonstrate the influence of meteorology, multi-family building characteristics, and resident behavior on IAQ, energy, and health, focused on multi-zone methodology.

Sensitivity of modeled residential fine particulate matter exposure to select building and source characteristics: A case study using public data in Boston, MA.

Many techniques for estimating exposure to airborne contaminants do not account for building characteristics that can magnify contaminant contributions from indoor and outdoor sources. Building characteristics that influence exposure can be challenging to obtain at scale, but some may be incorporated into exposure assessments using public datasets. We present a methodology for using public datasets to generate housing models for a test cohort, and examined sensitivity of predicted fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposures to selected building and source characteristics. We used addresses of a cohort of children with asthma and public tax assessor's data to guide selection of floorplans of US residences from a public database. This in turn guided generation of coupled multi-zone models (CONTAM and EnergyPlus) that estimated indoor PM2.5 exposure profiles. To examine sensitivity to model parameters, we varied building floors and floorplan, heating, ventilating and air-conditioning (HVAC) type, room or floor-level model resolution, and indoor source strength and schedule (for hypothesized gas stove cooking and tobacco smoking). Occupant time-activity and ambient pollutant levels were held constant. Our address matching methodology identified two multi-family house templates and one single-family house template that had similar characteristics to 60 % of test addresses. Exposure to infiltrated ambient PM2.5 was similar across selected building characteristics, HVAC types, and model resolutions (holding all else equal). By comparison, exposures to indoor-sourced PM2.5 were higher in the two multi-family residences than the single family residence (e.g., for cooking PM2.5 exposure, by 26 % and 47 % respectively) and were sensitive to HVAC type and model resolution. We derived the influence of building characteristics and HVAC type on PM2.5 exposure indoors using public data sources and coupled multi-zone models. With the important inclusion of individualized resident behavior data, similar housing modeling can be used to incorporate exposure variability in health studies of the indoor residential environment.

Spatial resolution of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and greenness exposure misclassification in an urban cohort.

BACKGROUND: The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is a measure of greenness widely used in environmental health research. High spatial resolution NDVI has become increasingly available; however, the implications of its use in exposure assessment are not well understood. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the impact of NDVI spatial resolution on greenness exposure misclassification. METHODS: Greenness exposure was assessed for 31,328 children in the Greater Boston Area in 2016 using NDVI from MODIS (250 m2), Landsat 8 (30 m2), Sentinel-2 (10 m2), and the National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP, 1 m2). We compared continuous and categorical greenness estimates for multiple buffer sizes under a reliability assessment framework. Exposure misclassification was evaluated using NAIP data as reference. RESULTS: Greenness estimates were greater for coarser resolution NDVI, but exposure distributions were similar. Continuous estimates showed poor agreement and high consistency, while agreement in categorical estimates ranged from poor to strong. Exposure misclassification was higher with greater differences in resolution, smaller buffers, and greater number of exposure quantiles. The proportion of participants changing greenness quantiles was higher for MODIS (11-60%), followed by Landsat 8 (6-44%), and Sentinel-2 (5-33%). SIGNIFICANCE: Greenness exposure assessment is sensitive to spatial resolution of NDVI, aggregation area, and number of exposure quantiles. Greenness exposure decisions should ponder relevant pathways for specific health outcomes and operational considerations.

The immigrant birthweight paradox in an urban cohort: Role of immigrant enclaves and ambient air pollution.

BACKGROUND: Foreign-born Black and Latina women on average have higher birthweight infants than their US-born counterparts, despite generally worse socioeconomic indicators and prenatal care access, i.e., "immigrant birthweight paradox" (IBP). Residence in immigrant enclaves and associated social-cultural and economic benefits may be drivers of IBP. Yet, enclaves have been found to have higher air pollution, a risk factor for lower birthweight. OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association of immigrant enclaves and children's birthweight accounting for prenatal ambient air pollution exposure. METHODS: In the Boston-based Children's HealthWatch cohort of mother-child dyads, we obtained birthweight-for-gestational-age z-scores (BWGAZ) for US-born births, 2006-2015. We developed an immigrant enclave score based on census-tract percentages of foreign-born, non-citizen, and linguistically-isolated households statewide. We estimated trimester-specific PM2.5 concentrations and proximity to major roads based residential address at birth. We fit multivariable linear regressions of BWGAZ and examined effect modification by maternal nativity. Analyses were restricted to nonsmoking women and term births. RESULTS: Foreign-born women had children with 0.176 (95% CI: 0.092, 0.261) higher BWGAZ than US-born women, demonstrating the IBP in our cohort. Immigrant enclave score was not associated with BWGAZ, even after adjusting for air pollution exposures. However, this association was significantly modified by maternal nativity (pinteraction = 0.014), in which immigrant enclave score was positively associated with BWGAZ for only foreign-born women (0.090, 95% CI: 0.007, 0.172). Proximity to major roads was negatively associated with BWGAZ (-0.018 per 10 m, 95% CI: -0.032, -0.003) and positively correlated with immigrant enclave scores. Trimester-specific PM2.5 concentrations were not associated with BWGAZ. SIGNIFICANCE: Residence in immigrant enclaves was associated with higher birthweight children for foreign-born women, supporting the role of immigrant enclaves in the IBP. Future research of the IBP should account for immigrant enclaves and assess their spatial correlation with potential environmental risk factors and protective resources.

Community predictors of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Massachusetts: Evaluating changes over time using geospatially refined data.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for targeted local interventions given substantial heterogeneity within cities and counties. Publicly available case data are typically aggregated to the city or county level to protect patient privacy, but more granular data are necessary to identify and act upon community-level risk factors that can change over time. METHODS: Individual COVID-19 case and mortality data from Massachusetts were geocoded to residential addresses and aggregated into two time periods: "Phase 1" (March-June 2020) and "Phase 2" (September 2020 to February 2021). Institutional cases associated with long-term care facilities, prisons, or homeless shelters were identified using address data and modeled separately. Census tract sociodemographic and occupational predictors were drawn from the 2015-2019 American Community Survey. We used mixed-effects negative binomial regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs), accounting for town-level spatial autocorrelation. RESULTS: Case incidence was elevated in census tracts with higher proportions of Black and Latinx residents, with larger associations in Phase 1 than Phase 2. Case incidence associated with proportion of essential workers was similarly elevated in both Phases. Mortality IRRs had differing patterns from case IRRs, decreasing less substantially between Phases for Black and Latinx populations and increasing between Phases for proportion of essential workers. Mortality models excluding institutional cases yielded stronger associations for age, race/ethnicity, and essential worker status. CONCLUSIONS: Geocoded home address data can allow for nuanced analyses of community disease patterns, identification of high-risk subgroups, and exclusion of institutional cases to comprehensively reflect community risk.

Time-varying associations between COVID-19 case incidence and community-level sociodemographic, occupational, environmental, and mobility risk factors in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: Associations between community-level risk factors and COVID-19 incidence have been used to identify vulnerable subpopulations and target interventions, but the variability of these associations over time remains largely unknown. We evaluated variability in the associations between community-level predictors and COVID-19 case incidence in 351 cities and towns in Massachusetts from March to October 2020. METHODS: Using publicly available sociodemographic, occupational, environmental, and mobility datasets, we developed mixed-effect, adjusted Poisson regression models to depict associations between these variables and town-level COVID-19 case incidence data across five distinct time periods from March to October 2020. We examined town-level demographic variables, including population proportions by race, ethnicity, and age, as well as factors related to occupation, housing density, economic vulnerability, air pollution (PM2.5), and institutional facilities. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRR) associated with these predictors and compared these values across the multiple time periods to assess variability in the observed associations over time. RESULTS: Associations between key predictor variables and town-level incidence varied across the five time periods. We observed reductions over time in the association with percentage of Black residents (IRR = 1.12 [95%CI: 1.12-1.13]) in early spring, IRR = 1.01 [95%CI: 1.00-1.01] in early fall) and COVID-19 incidence. The association with number of long-term care facility beds per capita also decreased over time (IRR = 1.28 [95%CI: 1.26-1.31] in spring, IRR = 1.07 [95%CI: 1.05-1.09] in fall). Controlling for other factors, towns with higher percentages of essential workers experienced elevated incidences of COVID-19 throughout the pandemic (e.g., IRR = 1.30 [95%CI: 1.27-1.33] in spring, IRR = 1.20 [95%CI: 1.17-1.22] in fall). Towns with higher proportions of Latinx residents also had sustained elevated incidence over time (IRR = 1.19 [95%CI: 1.18-1.21] in spring, IRR = 1.14 [95%CI: 1.13-1.15] in fall). CONCLUSIONS: Town-level COVID-19 risk factors varied with time in this study. In Massachusetts, racial (but not ethnic) disparities in COVID-19 incidence may have decreased across the first 8 months of the pandemic, perhaps indicating greater success in risk mitigation in selected communities. Our approach can be used to evaluate effectiveness of public health interventions and target specific mitigation efforts on the community level.

Modeling the impact of exposure reductions using multi-stressor epidemiology, exposure models, and synthetic microdata: an application to birthweight in two environmental justice communities.

BACKGROUND: Many vulnerable populations experience elevated exposures to environmental and social stressors, with deleterious effects on health. Multi-stressor epidemiological models can be used to assess benefits of exposure reductions. However, requisite individual-level risk factor data are often unavailable at adequate spatial resolution. OBJECTIVE: To leverage public data and novel simulation methods to estimate birthweight changes following simulated environmental interventions in two environmental justice communities in Massachusetts, USA. METHODS: We gathered risk factor data from public sources (US Census, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and Massachusetts Department of Health). We then created synthetic individual-level data sets using combinatorial optimization, and probabilistic and logistic modeling. Finally, we used coefficients from a multi-stressor epidemiological model to estimate birthweight and birthweight improvement associated with simulated environmental interventions. RESULTS: We created geographically resolved synthetic microdata. Mothers with the lowest predicted birthweight were those identifying as Black or Hispanic, with parity > 1, utilization of government prenatal support, and lower educational attainment. Birthweight improvements following greenness and temperature improvements were similar for all high-risk groups and were larger than benefits from smoking cessation. SIGNIFICANCE: Absent private health data, this methodology allows for assessment of cumulative risk and health inequities, and comparison of individual-level impacts of localized health interventions.

Time-varying associations between COVID-19 case incidence and community-level sociodemographic, occupational, environmental, and mobility risk factors in Massachusetts.

BACKGROUND: Associations between community-level risk factors and COVID-19 incidence are used to identify vulnerable subpopulations and target interventions, but the variability of these associations over time remains largely unknown. We evaluated variability in the associations between community-level predictors and COVID-19 case incidence in 351 cities and towns in Massachusetts from March to October 2020. METHODS: Using publicly available sociodemographic, occupational, environmental, and mobility datasets, we developed mixed-effect, adjusted Poisson regression models to depict associations between these variables and town-level COVID-19 case incidence data across five distinct time periods. We examined town-level demographic variables, including z-scores of percent Black, Latinx, over 80 years and undergraduate students, as well as factors related to occupation, housing density, economic vulnerability, air pollution (PM 2.5 ), and institutional facilities. RESULTS: Associations between key predictor variables and town-level incidence varied across the five time periods. We observed reductions over time in the association with percentage Black residents (IRR=1.12 CI=(1.12-1.13) in spring, IRR=1.01 CI=(1.00-1.01) in fall). The association with number of long-term care facility beds per capita also decreased over time (IRR=1.28 CI=(1.26-1.31) in spring, IRR=1.07 CI=(1.05-1.09)in fall). Controlling for other factors, towns with higher percentages of essential workers experienced elevated incidence of COVID-19 throughout the pandemic (e.g., IRR=1.30 CI=(1.27-1.33) in spring, IRR=1.20, CI=(1.17-1.22) in fall). Towns with higher percentages of Latinx residents also had sustained elevated incidence over time (e.g., IRR=1.19 CI=(1.18-1.21) in spring, IRR=1.14 CI=(1.13-1.15) in fall). CONCLUSIONS: Town-level COVID-19 risk factors vary with time. In Massachusetts, racial (but not ethnic) disparities in COVID-19 incidence have decreased over time, perhaps indicating greater success in risk mitigation in selected communities. Our approach can be used to evaluate effectiveness of public health interventions and target specific mitigation efforts on the community level.

The impact of energy retrofits on pediatric asthma exacerbation in a Boston multi-family housing complex: a systems science approach.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric asthma is currently the most prevalent chronic disease in the United States, with children in lower income families disproportionately affected. This increased health burden is partly due to lower-quality and insufficient maintenance of affordable housing. A movement towards 'green' retrofits that improve energy efficiency and increase ventilation in existing affordable housing offers an opportunity to provide cost-effective interventions that can address these health disparities. METHODS: We combine indoor air quality modeling with a previously developed discrete event model for pediatric asthma exacerbation to simulate the effects of different types of energy retrofits implemented at an affordable housing site in Boston, MA. RESULTS: Simulation results show that retrofits lead to overall better health outcomes and healthcare cost savings if reduced air exchange due to energy-saving air tightening is compensated by mechanical ventilation. Especially when exposed to indoor tobacco smoke and intensive gas-stove cooking such retrofit would lead to an average annual cost saving of over USD 200, while without mechanical ventilation the same children would have experienced an increase of almost USD 200/year in health care utilization cost. CONCLUSION: The combination of indoor air quality modeling and discrete event modeling applied in this paper can allow for the inclusion of health impacts in cost-benefit analyses of proposed affordable housing energy retrofits.