Prediction for post-ERCP pancreatitis in non-elderly patients with common bile duct stones: a cross-sectional study at a major Chinese tertiary hospital (2015-2023).

BACKGROUND: Post-ERCP pancreatitis is one of the most common adverse events in ERCP-related procedures. The purpose of this study is to construct an online model to predict the risk of post-ERCP pancreatitis in non-elderly patients with common bile duct stones through screening of relevant clinical parameters. METHODS: A total of 919 cases were selected from 7154 cases from a major Chinese tertiary hospital. Multivariable logistic regression model was fitted using the variables selected by the LASSO regression from 28 potential predictor variables. The internal and external validation was assessed by evaluating the receiver operating characteristic curve and the area under curve. Restricted cubic spline modelling was used to explore non-linear associations. The interactive Web application developed for risk prediction was built using the R "shiny" package. RESULTS: The incidence of post-ERCP pancreatitis was 5.22% (48/919) and significantly higher in non-elderly patients with female, high blood pressure, the history of pancreatitis, difficult intubation, endoscopic sphincterotomy, lower alkaline phosphatase and smaller diameter of common bile duct. The predictive performance in the test and external validation set was 0.915 (95% CI, 0.858-0.972) and 0.838 (95% CI, 0.689-0.986), respectively. The multivariate restricted cubic spline results showed that the incidence of pancreatitis was increased at 33-50 years old, neutrophil percentage > 58.90%, hemoglobin > 131 g/L, platelet < 203.04 or > 241.40 × 109/L, total bilirubin > 18.39 umol / L, aspartate amino transferase < 36.56 IU / L, alkaline phosphatase < 124.92 IU / L, Albumin < 42.21 g / L and common bile duct diameter between 7.25 and 10.02 mm. In addition, a web server was developed that supports query for immediate PEP risk. CONCLUSION: The visualized networked version of the above model is able to most accurately predict the risk of PEP in non-elderly patients with choledocholithiasis and allows clinicians to assess the risk of PEP in real time and provide preventive treatment measures as early as possible.

Investigating the virulence of coxsackievirus B6 strains and antiviral treatments in a neonatal murine model.

Coxsackievirus B6 (CVB6), a member of the human enterovirus family, is associated with severe diseases such as myocarditis in children. However, to date, only a limited number of CVB6 strains have been identified, and their characterization in animal models has been lacking. To address this gap, in this study, a neonatal murine model of CVB6 infection was established to compare the replication and virulence of three infectious-clone-derived CVB6 strains in vivo. The results showed that following challenge with a lethal dose of CVB6 strains, the neonatal mice rapidly exhibited a series of clinical signs, such as weight loss, limb paralysis, and death. For the two high-virulence CVB6 strains, histological examination revealed myocyte necrosis in skeletal and cardiac muscle, and immunohistochemistry confirmed the expression of CVB6 viral protein in these tissues. Real-time PCR assay also revealed higher viral loads in the skeletal and cardiac muscle than in other tissues at different time points post infection. Furthermore, the protective effect of passive immunization with antisera and a neutralizing monoclonal antibody against CVB6 infection was evaluated in the neonatal mouse model. This study should provide insights into the pathogenesis of CVB6 and facilitate further research in the development of vaccines and antivirals against CVBs.