Climate determines transmission hotspots of Polycystic Echinococcosis, a life-threatening zoonotic disease, across Pan-Amazonia.

Polycystic Echinococcosis (PE), a neglected life-threatening zoonotic disease caused by the cestode Echinococcus vogeli, is endemic in the Amazon. Despite being treatable, PE reaches a case fatality rate of around 29% due to late or missed diagnosis. PE is sustained in Pan-Amazonia by a complex sylvatic cycle. The hunting of its infected intermediate hosts (especially the lowland paca Cuniculus paca) enables the disease to further transmit to humans, when their viscera are improperly handled. In this study, we compiled a unique dataset of host occurrences (~86000 records) and disease infections (~400 cases) covering the entire Pan-Amazonia and employed different modeling and statistical tools to unveil the spatial distribution of PE's key animal hosts. Subsequently, we derived a set of ecological, environmental, climatic, and hunting covariates that potentially act as transmission risk factors and used them as predictors of two independent Maximum Entropy models, one for animal infections and one for human infections. Our findings indicate that temperature stability promotes the sylvatic circulation of the disease. Additionally, we show how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme events disrupt hunting patterns throughout Pan-Amazonia, ultimately affecting the probability of spillover. In a scenario where climate extremes are projected to intensify, climate change at regional level appears to be indirectly driving the spillover of E. vogeli. These results hold substantial implications for a wide range of zoonoses acquired at the wildlife-human interface for which transmission is related to the manipulation and consumption of wild meat, underscoring the pressing need for enhanced awareness and intervention strategies.

Wild meat trade over the last 45 years in the Peruvian Amazon.

The trade in wild meat is an important economic component of rural people's livelihoods, but it has been perceived to be among the main causes of the decline of wildlife species. Recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought to light an additional concern of wildlife markets as a major human-health challenge. We analyzed data from the largest longitudinal monitoring (1973-2018) of the most important urban wild-meat markets in Iquitos, Peru, to examine the trends in and impacts of these markets on people's livelihoods. Over the last 45 years, wild meat sales increased at a rate of 6.4 t/year (SD 2.17), paralleling urban population growth. Wild meat sales were highest in 2018 (442 t), contributing US$2.6 million (0.76%) to the regional gross domestic product. Five species of ungulates and rodents accounted for 88.5% of the amount of biomass traded. Vulnerable and Endangered species represented 7.0% and 0.4% of individuals sold, respectively. Despite growth in sales, the contribution of wild meat to overall urban diet was constant: 1-2%/year of total meat consumed. This result was due to greater availability and higher consumption of cheaper meats (e.g., in 2018, poultry was 45.8% cheaper and was the most consumed meat) coupled with the lack of economic incentives to harvest wild meat species in rural areas. Most wild meat was sold salted or smoked, reducing the likelihood of foodborne diseases. Community-based wildlife management plans and the continued trade bans on primates and threatened taxa may avoid biodiversity loss. Considering the recent COVID-19 pandemic, future management plans should include potential viral hosts and regulation and enforcement of hygiene practices in wild-meat markets.

Comercio de Carne de Monte en los Últimos 45 Años en la Amazonia Peruana Resumen El comercio de carne de monte es un componente económico importante del sustento de habitantes de zonas rurales, pero se ha percibido como una de las principales causas de la declinación de especies de vida silvestre. Recientemente, la pandemia de COVID-19 ha traído a la luz una preocupación adicional de los mercados de vida silvestre como un reto importante para la salud humana. Analizamos datos del monitoreo longitudinal más extenso (1973-2018) de los mercados urbanos de carne de monte más importantes en Iquitos, Perú, para examinar las tendencias y los impactos de estos mercados sobre el sustento de los habitantes. Las ventas de carne de monte incrementaron en los últimos 45 años a una tasa de 6.4 t/año (DS 2.17), en paralelo con el crecimiento de la población. Las ventas de carne de monte fueron más altas en 2018 (442 t), aportando U.S. $2.6 millones (0.76%) al producto interno bruto de la región. Cinco especies de ungulados y roedores comprendieron el 88.5% de la biomasa comercializada. Especies vulnerables y en peligro representaron 7.0% y 0.4% de los individuos vendidos, respectivamente. A pesar del incremento de las ventas, la contribución de la carne de monte al total de la dieta urbana fue constante: 1-2%/año del total de carne consumida. Este resultado se debió a una mayor disponibilidad y consumo de carnes más baratas (e. g., en 2018 la carne de pollo fue 45.8% más barata y fue la más consumida) aparejado con la falta de incentivos económicos para cosechar carne de especies silvestres en áreas rurales. La mayor parte de la carne de monte se vendía salada o ahumada, reduciendo con ello la probabilidad de enfermedades transmitidas por alimentos. Los planes de manejo de vida silvestre basados en comunidades y la prohibición continua del comercio de primates y taxa amenazados pueden evitar la pérdida de biodiversidad. Considerando la reciente pandemia de COVID-19, los planes de manejo futuros deben incluir potenciales huéspedes virales y la regulación y aplicación de prácticas de higiene en los mercados de carne de especies silvestres.

Major shifts in Amazon wildlife populations from recent intensification of floods and drought.

In the western Amazon Basin, recent intensification of river-level cycles has increased flooding during the wet seasons and decreased precipitation during the dry season. Greater than normal floods occurred in 2009 and in all years from 2011 to 2015 during high-water seasons, and a drought occurred during the 2010 low-water season. During these years, we surveyed populations of terrestrial, arboreal, and aquatic wildlife in a seasonally flooded Amazonian forest in the Loreto region of Peru (99,780 km2 ) to study the effects of intensification of natural climatic fluctuations on wildlife populations and in turn effects on resource use by local people. Shifts in fish and terrestrial mammal populations occurred during consecutive years of high floods and the drought of 2010. As floods intensified, terrestrial mammal populations decreased by 95%. Fish, waterfowl, and otter (Pteronura brasiliensis) abundances increased during years of intensive floods, whereas river dolphin and caiman populations had stable abundances. Arboreal species, including, macaws, game birds, primates, felids, and other arboreal mammals had stable populations and were not affected directly by high floods. The drought of 2010 had the opposite effect: fish, waterfowl, and dolphin populations decreased, and populations of terrestrial and arboreal species remained stable. Ungulates and large rodents are important sources of food and income for local people, and large declines in these animals has shifted resource use of people living in the flooded forests away from hunting to a greater reliance on fish.