Real-time estimation of the hospitalization fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Hong Kong.

During the early stage of an epidemic, timely and reliable estimation of the severity of infections are important for predicting the impact that the influenza viruses will have in the population. We obtained age-specific deaths and hospitalizations for patients with laboratory-confirmed H1N1pdm09 infections from June 2009 to December 2009 in Hong Kong. We retrospectively obtained the real-time estimates of the hospitalization fatality risk (HFR), using crude estimation or allowing for right-censoring for final status in some patients. Models accounting for right-censoring performed better than models without adjustments. The risk of deaths in hospitalized patients with confirmed H1N1pdm09 increased with age. Reliable estimates of the HFR could be obtained before the peak of the first wave of H1N1pdm09 in young and middle-aged adults but after the peak in the elderly. In the next influenza pandemic, timely estimation of the HFR will contribute to risk assessment and disease control.

Quantifying homologous and heterologous antibody titre rises after influenza virus infection.

Most influenza virus infections are associated with mild disease. One approach to estimate the occurrence of influenza virus infections in individuals is via repeated measurement of humoral antibody titres. We used baseline and convalescent antibody titres measured by haemagglutination inhibition (HI) and viral neutralization (VN) assays against influenza A(H1N1), A(H3N2) and B viruses to investigate the characteristics of antibody rises following virologically confirmed influenza virus infections in participants in a community-based study. Multivariate models were fitted in a Bayesian framework to characterize the distribution of changes in antibody titres following influenza A virus infections. In 122 participants with PCR-confirmed influenza A virus infection, homologous antibody titres rose by geometric means of 1·2- to 10·2-fold after infection with A(H1N1), A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09. Significant cross-reactions were observed between A(H1N1)pdm09 and seasonal A(H1N1). Antibody titre rises for some subtypes and assays varied by age, receipt of oseltamivir treatment, and recent receipt of influenza vaccination. In conclusion, we provided a quantitative description of the mean and variation in rises in influenza virus antibody titres following influenza virus infection. The multivariate patterns in boosting of antibody titres following influenza virus infection could be taken into account to improve estimates of cumulative incidence of infection in seroepidemiological studies.

Preliminary epidemiological assessment of MERS-CoV outbreak in South Korea, May to June 2015.

South Korea is experiencing the largest outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infections outside the Arabian Peninsula, with 166 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 24 deaths up to 19 June 2015. We estimated that the mean incubation period was 6.7 days and the mean serial interval 12.6 days. We found it unlikely that infectiousness precedes symptom onset. Based on currently available data, we predict an overall case fatality risk of 21% (95% credible interval: 14­31).

Burden, seasonal pattern and symptomatology of acute respiratory illnesses with different viral aetiologies in children presenting at outpatient clinics in Hong Kong.

Respiratory viruses cause acute respiratory diseases with a broad and overlapping spectrum of symptoms. We examined the clinical symptoms and explored the patterns of various respiratory viral infections in children in Hong Kong. Among 2090 specimens collected from outpatient care (2007-2010), 1343 (64.3%) were positive for any virus by the xTAG assay, and 81 (3.9%) were positive for co-infection. The most frequently detected viruses among children aged 6-15 years were enterovirus/rhinovirus and influenza virus A, whereas most non-influenza viruses were more frequently detected in younger children. Higher body temperature was more common for illnesses associated with influenza viruses than for those associated with non-influenza viruses, but other symptoms were largely similar across all infections. The seasonality pattern varied among different viruses, with influenza virus A being the predominant virus detected in winter, and enterovirus/rhinovirus being more commonly detected than influenza virus A in the other three seasons, except for 2009.

Multivariate analysis of factors affecting the immunogenicity of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in school-age children.

We examined factors affecting the immunogenicity of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination (TIV) in children using the antibody titres of children participating in a Hong Kong community-based study. Antibody titres of strains included in the 2009-2010 northern hemisphere TIV [seasonal A(H1N1), seasonal A(H3N2) and B (Victoria lineage)] and those not included in the TIV [2009 pandemic A(H1N1) and B (Yamagata lineage)] were measured by haemagglutination inhibition immediately before and 1 month after vaccination. Multivariate regression models were fitted in a Bayesian framework to characterize the distribution of changes in antibody titres following vaccination. Statistically significant rises in geometric mean antibody titres were observed against all strains, with a wide variety of standard deviations and correlations in rises observed, with the influenza type B antibodies showing more variability than the type A antibodies. The dynamics of antibody titres after vaccination can be used in more complex models of antibody dynamics in populations.

Clinical severity of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, China, 2013/14.

Assessing the severity of emerging infections is challenging because of potential biases in case ascertainment. The first human case of infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus was identified in China in March 2013; since then, the virus has caused two epidemic waves in the country. There were 134 laboratory-confirmed cases detected in the first epidemic wave from January to September 2013. In the second epidemic wave of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China from October 2013 to October 2014, we estimated that the risk of death among hospitalised cases of infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus was 48% (95% credibility interval: 42-54%), slightly higher than the corresponding risk in the first wave. Age-specific risks of death among hospitalised cases were also significantly higher in the second wave. Using data on symptomatic cases identified through national sentinel influenza-like illness surveillance, we estimated that the risk of death among symptomatic cases of infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus was 0.10% (95% credibility interval: 0.029-3.6%), which was similar to previous estimates for the first epidemic wave of human infections with influenza A(H7N9) virus in 2013. An increase in the risk of death among hospitalised cases in the second wave could be real because of changes in the virus, because of seasonal changes in host susceptibility to severe infection, or because of variation in treatment practices between hospitals, while the increase could be artefactual because of changes in ascertainment of cases in different areas at different times.