Cancer of the Cervix in Bulgaria: Epidemiology of a Crisis.

Eastern Europe continues to have the highest rates of cancer of the uterine cervix (CUC) and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in Europe. AIM: The aim of this study was to investigate CUC trends in Bulgaria in the context of a lack of a population-based screening program and a demographic crisis. METHODOLOGY: This was a retrospective study of 7861 CUC patients who were registered in the Bulgarian National Cancer Registry (BNCR) between 2013 and 2020 and followed up with until March 2022. We used descriptive statistics and modeling to assess temporal trends in new CUC incidence rates and identify factors associated with survival. RESULTS: Bulgaria's population has decreased by 11.5% between 2011 and 2021. The CUC incidence rate decreased from 29.5/100,000 in 2013 to 23.2/100,000 in 2020 but remains very high. The proportion of patients diagnosed in earlier stages of CUC has decreased over time. Up to 19% of patients with CUC in Bulgaria are diagnosed between the age of 35 and 44 years. The median survival was 101.5 months, with some improvement in later years (adjusted HR = 0.83 for 2017-2020). CONCLUSIONS: In countries with well-established population-based screening, CUC is nowadays considered a rare disease. However, it is not considered rare in Bulgaria. Population-based screening starting at an earlier age is the fastest way to improve outcomes.

Generalized mean residual life models for survival data with missing censoring indicators.

The mean residual life (MRL) function is an important and attractive alternative to the hazard function for characterizing the distribution of a time-to-event variable. In this article, we study the modeling and inference of a family of generalized MRL models for right-censored survival data with censoring indicators missing at random. To estimate the model parameters, augmented inverse probability weighted estimating equation approaches are developed, in which the non-missingness probability and the conditional probability of an uncensored observation are estimated by parametric methods or nonparametric kernel smoothing techniques. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established and finite sample performance is evaluated by extensive simulation studies. An application to brain cancer data is presented to illustrate the proposed methods.

GYNOCARE Update: Modern Strategies to Improve Diagnosis and Treatment of Rare Gynecologic Tumors­Current Challenges and Future Directions

More than 50% of all gynecologic tumors can be classified as rare (defined as an incidence of ≤6 per 100,000 women) and usually have a poor prognosis owing to delayed diagnosis and treatment. In contrast to almost all other common solid tumors, the treatment of rare gynecologic tumors (RGT) is often based on expert opinion, retrospective studies, or extrapolation from other tumor sites with similar histology, leading to difficulty in developing guidelines for clinical practice. Currently, gynecologic cancer research, due to distinct scientific and technological challenges, is lagging behind. Moreover, the overall efforts for addressing these challenges are fragmented across different European countries and indeed, worldwide. The GYNOCARE, COST Action CA18117 (European Network for Gynecological Rare Cancer Research) programme aims to address these challenges through the creation of a unique network between key stakeholders covering distinct domains from concept to cure: basic research on RGT, biobanking, bridging with industry, and setting up the legal and regulatory requirements for international innovative clinical trials. On this basis, members of this COST Action, (Working Group 1, "Basic and Translational Research on Rare Gynecological Cancer") have decided to focus their future efforts on the development of new approaches to improve the diagnosis and treatment of RGT. Here, we provide a brief overview of the current state-of-the-art and describe the goals of this COST Action and its future challenges with the aim to stimulate discussion and promote synergy across scientists engaged in the fight against this rare cancer worldwide.

Complications and Safety of Preconception Low-Dose Aspirin Among Women With Prior Pregnancy Losses.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate complications and safety of preconception low-dose aspirin in 1,228 U.S. women (2007-2011). METHODS: Evaluation of the safety of low-dose aspirin in the participants and their fetuses was a planned secondary analysis of the Effects of Aspirin in Gestation and Reproduction trial, a multicenter, block-randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial investigating the effect of low-dose aspirin on the incidence of live birth. Women aged 18-40 years with a history of one to two pregnancy losses trying to conceive were randomized to daily low-dose aspirin (81 mg, n=615) or placebo (n=613) and were followed for up to six menstrual cycles or through gestation if they became pregnant. Emergency care visits and possible aspirin-related symptoms were assessed at each study follow-up using standardized safety interviews. In addition, complications for both the participant and her fetus or neonate were captured prospectively using case report forms, interviews conducted during pregnancy and postpartum, and medical records. RESULTS: The proportion of women with at least one possible aspirin-related symptom during the trial was similar between treatment arms (456 [74%] low-dose aspirin compared with 447 [73%] placebo, P=.65) as was the proportion with at least one emergency care visit (104 [17%] low-dose aspirin compared with 99 [16%] placebo, P=.76). Maternal complications were evenly distributed by treatment arm with the exception of vaginal bleeding, which was more commonly reported in the low-dose aspirin arm (22% compared with 17%, P=.02). The distribution of fetal and neonatal complications-which included three stillbirths, three neonatal deaths, and 10 neonates with birth defect(s)-was similar between treatment arms. CONCLUSION: Although rare but serious complications resulting from low-dose aspirin cannot be ruled out, preconception low-dose aspirin appears to be well tolerated by women trying to conceive, women who become pregnant, and by their fetuses and neonates.

Expanded findings from a randomized controlled trial of preconception low-dose aspirin and pregnancy loss.

STUDY QUESTION: What is the association between daily preconception-initiated low-dose aspirin (LDA) treatment and very early pregnancy losses or euploid (chromosomally normal) losses among women with one to two prior losses? SUMMARY ANSWER: Daily LDA initiated preconception was not associated with the rate or type of pregnancy loss among women with a history of one to two prior pregnancy losses. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: LDA is often used to treat recurrent pregnancy loss with reductions in pregnancy loss generally only observed among women with antiphospholipid antibodies, and null associations observed among women without antiphospholipid antibodies. We previously evaluated the association between LDA and pregnancy loss overall among women with one to two prior losses in the Effects of Aspirin in Gestation and Reproduction (EAGeR) trial and found no association, though did not distinguish between potential effects at different stages of pregnancy loss, including implantation failure, or between euploid and aneuploid losses. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: The EAGeR trial was a multi-site prospective block-randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial. In total, 1228 women were randomized to daily LDA (81 mg/day) plus folic acid (400 mcg/day), or placebo plus folic acid. Participants were assigned study drug for less than or equal to six menstrual cycles or if they conceived, throughout pregnancy with study drug discontinued at 36 weeks gestation. This analysis includes additional outcome information obtained from chart abstractions after the completion of the trial, as well as testing of stored urine for measurement of hCG and detection of very early pregnancy losses, and karyotyping of the products of conception for assessment of aneuploidy of the losses. PARTICIPANTS, SETTING, METHODS: Women aged 18-40 with a history of one to two prior losses and actively trying to conceive were randomized (n = 615 LDA and n = 613 placebo) at four clinical centers in the USA (2007-2011). Log-binomial regression was used to estimate risk ratios under the intent-to-treat approach. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Daily LDA initiated preconception was not associated with clinically recognized pregnancy losses or implantation failures among women with proved fecundity and a history of one to two prior losses. Specifically, 1088 (88.6%) women completed the trial with 797 having an hCG detected pregnancy (64.9%). Overall there were 133 clinical losses (12.7% LDA versus 11.8% placebo, P = 0.71) and 55 implantation failures (5.2% LDA versus 4.9% placebo, P = 0.89). No differences were found in rate of euploid losses (RR 1.11, 95% confidence interval: 0.99, 1.26). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Generalizability of these findings is limited to women with a history of one to two prior losses, and may further be limited to women of white race with higher socioeconomic status as given the rigors of the study protocol participants tended to be white and have higher incomes and more education. We were also missing karyotype information on approximately one-third of the clinically recognized pregnancy losses, which may limit our power to detect effects on euploid losses, though detailed sensitivity analysis showed similar results. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our data do not support the general use of LDA to decrease pregnancy loss and further demonstrate no increased risk of loss for women on LDA treatment. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: This research was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland (Contract Nos. HHSN267200603423, HHSN267200603424, HHSN267200603426). The authors have no conflicts of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov #NCT00467363. TRIAL REGISTRATION DATE: 27 April 2007. DATE OF FIRST PATIENT'S ENROLLMENT: 15 June 2007.

Sex ratio following preconception low-dose aspirin in women with prior pregnancy loss.

BACKGROUND: Several lines of evidence suggest that male embryos may have greater vulnerability than female embryos to disordered inflammation; therefore, antiinflammatory drugs, such as low-dose aspirin (LDA), may alter the sex ratio. Here, we assessed the effect of LDA on male live birth and male offspring, incorporating pregnancy losses (n = 56) via genetic assessment, as part of a parallel-design, block-randomized, placebo-controlled trial of preconception LDA. METHODS: Participants (615 treated with LDA, 613 treated with placebo) ranged in age from 18 to 40 years of age, with 1 to 2 prior pregnancy losses. We estimated the intention-to-treat (ITT) risk ratio (RR) and 95% CI and assessed interaction with baseline high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) serum concentration - a marker of systemic inflammation. RESULTS: Among the 1,078 women who completed follow-up (535 treated with LDA, 543 treated with placebo), the male live birth ITT RR equaled 1.31 (95% CI: 1.07-1.59). With increasing tertile of hsCRP, the proportion of males at birth decreased in the placebo group, and the effect of LDA on male live birth increased (first tertile: 48% male in LDA vs. 52% in placebo, ITT RR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.70-1.35; second tertile: 57% male in LDA vs. 43% in placebo, ITT RR = 1.36, 95% CI: 0.98-1.90; third tertile: 53% male in LDA vs. 35% in placebo, ITT RR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.13-2.57; P interaction = 0.03). Analysis of pregnancy with male offspring yielded similar results. CONCLUSION: Initiation of LDA prior to conception restored numbers of male live births and pregnancy with male offspring among women with 1 to 2 prior pregnancy losses. Moreover, our data suggest that LDA modulates inflammation that would otherwise reduce the conception or survival of male embryos. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00467363. FUNDING: Intramural Research Program of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, National Institutes of Health.

Low-dose aspirin and preterm birth: a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between low-dose aspirin initiated before conception and the risk of preterm birth. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of the Effects of Aspirin in Gestation and Reproduction trial. Women with a history of pregnancy loss (original stratum: one loss less than 20 weeks of gestation during the previous year; expanded stratum: one or two losses with no restrictions on timing or gestational age of the losses) were randomized to either daily low-dose aspirin (81 mg, n=615) and folic acid or folic acid alone (placebo; n=613). Preterm birth was compared between groups using intent-to-treat analysis. RESULTS: Preterm birth rates were 4.1% (22/535 low-dose aspirin) and 5.7% (31/543 placebo) (relative risk [RR] 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.42-1.23); spontaneous preterm birth rates were 1.1% (6/535 low-dose aspirin) and 2.2% (12/543 placebo) (RR 0.51, 95% CI 0.19-1.34); medically indicated preterm birth rates were 2.6% (14/535 low-dose aspirin) and 2.9% (16/543 placebo) (RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.44-1.80). After restriction to confirmed pregnancies using inverse probability weighting, preterm birth rates were 5.7% and 9.0% (RR 0.63, 95% CI 0.37-1.09) and spontaneous preterm birth rates were 1.4% and 3.2% (RR 0.44, 95% CI 0.17-1.18). In confirmed pregnancies in the original stratum, preterm birth occurred in 3.8% and 9.7% of the low-dose aspirin and placebo groups, respectively (RR 0.39, 95% CI 0.16-0.94). CONCLUSION: Preconception low-dose aspirin was not significantly associated with the overall rate of preterm birth. Although the study was underpowered for this secondary analysis, numeric trends in favor of benefit, particularly in the women with a recent, single early pregnancy loss, warrant further investigation. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, www.clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00467363.

Preconception low dose aspirin and time to pregnancy: findings from the effects of aspirin in gestation and reproduction randomized trial.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to determine the effect of preconception-initiated daily low-dose aspirin (LDA; 81 mg/day) treatment on time to pregnancy in women with a history of pregnancy loss. DESIGN: This was a multicenter, block-randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Participants were block-randomized by center and eligibility stratum. SETTING: The study was conducted at four U.S.A. medical centers (2007-2012). PARTICIPANTS: Participants women aged 18-40 years actively attempting pregnancy, stratified by eligibility criteria: the "original" stratum, women with one loss <20 weeks' gestation during the previous year; and the "expanded" stratum, women with one or two previous losses of any gestational age regardless of time since loss. INTERVENTION: Daily LDA was compared with matching placebo for up to six menstrual cycles of attempting pregnancy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Time to hCG detected pregnancy and clinically confirmed pregnancy, analyzed by intention-to-treat, was measured. RESULTS: Of the 1228 women randomly assigned to LDA (n = 615) or placebo (n = 613), 410 (67%) women receiving LDA achieved pregnancy compared to 382 (63%) receiving placebo, corresponding to a fecundability odds ratio (FOR) of 1.14 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.33). Among women in the original stratum (n = 541), LDA was associated with increased fecundability compared to placebo (FOR: 1.28; 95%CI: 1.02, 1.62). CONCLUSIONS: Preconception-initiated LDA treatment resulted in a nonsignificant increase in fecundability of 14% in women with a history of 1-2 pregnancy losses, and a significant increase of 28% in women with a history of only one pregnancy loss of <20 weeks' gestation in the preceding year. Preconception-initiated LDA may increase fecundability in certain women with a recent early pregnancy loss.

The effect of a very short interpregnancy interval and pregnancy outcomes following a previous pregnancy loss.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to assess the relationship between a short interpregnancy interval (IPI) following a pregnancy loss and subsequent live birth and pregnancy outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: A secondary analysis of women enrolled in the Effects of Aspirin in Gestation and Reproduction trial with a human chorionic gonadotropin-positive pregnancy test and whose last reproductive outcome was a loss were included in this analysis (n = 677). IPI was defined as the time between last pregnancy loss and last menstrual period of the current pregnancy and categorized by 3-month intervals. Pregnancy outcomes include live birth, pregnancy loss, and any pregnancy complications. These were compared between IPI groups using multivariate relative risk estimation by Poisson regression. RESULTS: Demographic characteristics were similar between IPI groups. The mean gestational age of prior pregnancy loss was 8.6 ± 2.8 weeks. The overall live birth rate was 76.5%, with similar live birth rates between those with IPI ≤3 months as compared to IPI >3 months (adjusted relative risk [aRR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98-1.16). Rates were also similar for periimplantation loss (aRR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.51-1.80), clinically confirmed loss (aRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.51-1.10), and any pregnancy complication (aRR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.71-1.09) for those with IPI ≤3 months as compared to IPI >3 months. CONCLUSION: Live birth rates and adverse pregnancy outcomes, including pregnancy loss, were not associated with a very short IPI after a prior pregnancy loss. The traditional recommendation to wait at least 3 months after a pregnancy loss before attempting a new pregnancy may not be warranted.

Preconception low-dose aspirin and pregnancy outcomes: results from the EAGeR randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Preconception-initiated low-dose aspirin might positively affect pregnancy outcomes, but this possibility has not been adequately assessed. Our aim was to investigate whether low-dose aspirin improved livebirth rates in women with one to two previous pregnancy losses. METHODS: In this multicentre, block-randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, women aged 18-40 years who were attempting to become pregnant were recruited from four medical centres in the USA. Participants were stratified by eligibility criteria--the original stratum was restricted to women with one loss at less than 20 weeks' gestation during the previous year, whereas the expanded stratum included women with one to two previous losses, with no restrictions on gestational age or time of loss. Women were block-randomised by centre and eligibility stratum in a 1:1 ratio. Preconception-initiated daily low-dose aspirin (81 mg per day) plus folic acid was compared with placebo plus folic acid for up to six menstrual cycles; for women who conceived, study treatment continued until 36 weeks' gestation. Participants, trial staff, and investigators were masked to the assigned treatment. The primary outcome was livebirth rate, which was analysed by intention to treat. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00467363. FINDINGS: Overall, 1228 women were recruited and randomly assigned between June 15, 2007, and July 15, 2011, 1078 of whom completed the trial and were included in the analysis (535 in the low-dose aspirin group and 543 in the placebo group). 309 (58%) women in the low-dose aspirin group had livebirths, compared with 286 (53%) in the placebo group (p=0·0984; absolute difference in livebirth rate 5·09% [95% CI -0·84 to 11·02]). Pregnancy loss occurred in 68 (13%) women in the low-dose aspirin group, compared with 65 (12%) women in the placebo group (p=0·7812). In the original stratum, 151 (62%) of 242 women in the low-dose aspirin group had livebirths, compared with 133 (53%) of 250 in the placebo group (p=0·0446; absolute difference in livebirth rate 9·20% [0·51 to 17·89]). In the expanded stratum, 158 (54%) of 293 women in the low-dose aspirin group and 153 (52%) of 293 in the placebo group had livebirths (p=0·7406; absolute difference in livebirth rate 1·71% [-6·37 to 9·79]). Major adverse events were similar between treatment groups. Low-dose aspirin was associated with increased vaginal bleeding, but this adverse event was not associated with pregnancy loss. INTERPRETATION: Preconception-initiated low-dose aspirin was not significantly associated with livebirth or pregnancy loss in women with one to two previous losses. However, higher livebirth rates were seen in women with a single documented loss at less than 20 weeks' gestation during the previous year. Low-dose aspirin is not recommended for the prevention of pregnancy loss. FUNDING: Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (US National Institutes of Health).

A randomised trial to evaluate the effects of low-dose aspirin in gestation and reproduction: design and baseline characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose aspirin (LDA) has been proposed to improve pregnancy outcomes in couples experiencing recurrent pregnancy loss. However, results from studies of LDA on pregnancy outcomes have been inconsistent, perhaps because most studies evaluated LDA-initiated post-conception. The purpose of the Effects of Aspirin in Gestation and Reproduction (EAGeR) trial was to determine whether preconception-initiated LDA improves livebirth rates in women with one to two prior losses. METHODS: We performed a multicentre, block randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. Study participants were recruited using community-based advertisements and physician referral to four university medical centres in the US (2006-12). Eligible women were aged 18-40 years actively trying to conceive, with one to two prior losses. Participants were randomised to receive daily LDA (81 mg/day) or a matching placebo, and all were provided with daily 400-mcg folic acid. Follow-up continued for ≤6 menstrual cycles while attempting to conceive. For those who conceived, treatment was continued until 36 weeks gestation. The primary outcome was the cumulative livebirth rate over the trial period. RESULTS: There were 1228 women randomised (615 LDA, 613 placebo). Participants had a mean age of 28.7, were mostly white (95%), well educated (86% more than high school education), and employed (75%) with a household income >$100 000 annually (40%). The characteristics of those in the treatment and placebo arms were well balanced. CONCLUSIONS: We describe the study design, recruitment, data collection, and baseline characteristics of participants enrolled in EAGeR, which aimed to determine the effect of LDA on livebirth and other pregnancy outcomes in these women.

Estimation of the ROC curve under verification bias.

The ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve is the most commonly used statistical tool for describing the discriminatory accuracy of a diagnostic test. Classical estimation of the ROC curve relies on data from a simple random sample from the target population. In practice, estimation is often complicated due to not all subjects undergoing a definitive assessment of disease status (verification). Estimation of the ROC curve based on data only from subjects with verified disease status may be badly biased. In this work we investigate the properties of the doubly robust (DR) method for estimating the ROC curve under verification bias originally developed by Rotnitzky, Faraggi and Schisterman (2006) for estimating the area under the ROC curve. The DR method can be applied for continuous scaled tests and allows for a non-ignorable process of selection to verification. We develop the estimator's asymptotic distribution and examine its finite sample properties via a simulation study. We exemplify the DR procedure for estimation of ROC curves with data collected on patients undergoing electron beam computer tomography, a diagnostic test for calcification of the arteries.

Youden Index and the optimal threshold for markers with mass at zero.

The Youden Index is often used as a summary measure of the receiver operating characteristic curve. It measures the effectiveness of a diagnostic marker and permits the selection of an optimal threshold value or cutoff point for the biomarker of interest. Some markers, while basically continuous and positive, have a spike or positive mass of probability at the value zero. We provide a flexible modeling approach for estimating the Youden Index and its associated cutoff point for such spiked data and compare it with the standard empirical approach. We show how this modeling approach can be adjusted to take covariate information into account. This approach is applied to data on the Coronary Calcium Score, a marker for atherosclerosis.

Comparing the areas under two correlated ROC curves: parametric and non-parametric approaches.

In order to compare the discriminatory effectiveness of two diagnostic markers the equality of the areas under the respective Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves is commonly tested. A non-parametric test based on the Mann-Whitney statistic is generally used. Weiand et al. (1989) present a parametric test based on normal distributional assumptions. We extend this test using the Box-Cox power family of transformations to non-normal situations. These three test procedures are compared in terms of significance level and power by means of a large simulation study. Overall we find that transforming to normality is to be preferred. An example of two pancreatic cancer serum biomarkers is used to illustrate the methodology.

ROC analysis for markers with mass at zero.

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and in particular the area under the curve (AUC) is commonly used to examine the discriminatory ability of diagnostic markers. Certain markers while basically continuous and non-negative have a positive probability mass (spike) at the value zero. We discuss a flexible modelling approach to such data and contrast it with the standard non-parametric approach. We show how the modelling approach can be extended to take account of the effect of explanatory variables. We motivate this problem and illustrate the modelling approach using data on the coronary calcium score, measured by electron beam tomography, which is a marker for atherosclerosis.

Estimation of the Youden Index and its associated cutoff point.

The Youden Index is a frequently used summary measure of the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curve. It both, measures the effectiveness of a diagnostic marker and enables the selection of an optimal threshold value (cutoff point) for the marker. In this paper we compare several estimation procedures for the Youden Index and its associated cutoff point. These are based on (1) normal assumptions; (2) transformations to normality; (3) the empirical distribution function; (4) kernel smoothing. These are compared in terms of bias and root mean square error in a large variety of scenarios by means of an extensive simulation study. We find that the empirical method which is the most commonly used has the overall worst performance. In the estimation of the Youden Index the kernel is generally the best unless the data can be well transformed to achieve normality whereas in estimation of the optimal threshold value results are more variable.

Reduced glomerular filtration rate in asymptomatic diabetic patients: predictor of increased risk for cardiac events independent of albuminuria.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of a reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) with and without albuminuria and its ability to predict cardiac events in asymptomatic diabetic patients undergoing stress-rest thallium-201 myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography. BACKGROUND: Diabetic patients have a higher prevalence of asymptomatic coronary heart disease. Therefore, identifying predictors of cardiac events in asymptomatic diabetic patients is needed. METHODS: In 269 asymptomatic patients, baseline evaluation included diabetes-related complications, including creatinine clearance (CrCl) and albuminuria. During follow-up (mean 2.3 +/- 1.0 years), all cardiac events were recorded. RESULTS: Seventy-seven patients (29%) had a reduced GFR defined by CrCl <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Compared with the 177 patients with CrCl >/=60 ml/min/1.73 m(2), the reduced GFR group was older (p < 0.0001), had a longer duration of diabetes (p = 0.002), and had a higher prevalence of albuminuria (p = 0.04). Nevertheless, 35% of the reduced GFR group had normoalbuminuria. Patients with reduced GFR had a significant two-fold increase in total cardiac events (unstable angina, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and cardiac procedures) (25% vs. 13%, p = 0.019), and multivariate analysis found that reduced GFR was an independent predictor of cardiac events (odds ratio [OR] 2.2, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1 to 4.46). Other independent predictors of cardiac events included stress-induced abnormal myocardial perfusion imaging (OR 3.1, 95% CI 1.3 to 7.5), an electrocardiographic ischemic response (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.01 to 7.14), and peripheral artery disease (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.05 to 4.23); however, albuminuria was not. CONCLUSIONS: A reduced GFR was common in our group of asymptomatic diabetic patients and was associated with a two-fold increase in cardiac events. Multivariate analysis found that reduced GFR independent of albuminuria was a significant predictor of cardiac events.

Adjusting the generalized ROC curve for covariates.

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and in particular the area under the curve (AUC), are widely used to examine the effectiveness of diagnostic markers. Diagnostic markers and their corresponding ROC curves can be strongly influenced by covariate variables. When several diagnostic markers are available, they can be combined by a best linear combination such that the area under the ROC curve of the combination is maximized among all possible linear combinations. In this paper we discuss covariate effects on this linear combination assuming that the multiple markers, possibly transformed, follow a multivariate normal distribution. The ROC curve of this linear combination when markers are adjusted for covariates is estimated and approximate confidence intervals for the corresponding AUC are derived. An example of two biomarkers of coronary heart disease for which covariate information on age and gender is available is used to illustrate this methodology.

ROC curve analysis for biomarkers based on pooled assessments.

Interleukin-6 is a biomarker of inflammation which has been suggested as having potential discriminatory ability for myocardial infarction. Because of its high assaying cost it is very expensive to evaluate this marker. In order to reduce this cost we propose pooling the specimens. In this paper we examine the efficiency of ROC curve analysis, specifically the estimation of the area under the ROC curve, when dealing with pooled data. We study the effect of pooling when there are only a fixed number of individuals available for testing and pooling is carried out to save on the number of assays. Alternatively we examine how many pooled assays of size g are necessary to provide essentially the same information as N individual assays. We measure loss of information by means of the change in root mean square error of the estimate of the area under the ROC curve and study the extent of this loss via a simulation study.

Estimation of the area under the ROC curve.

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is frequently used as a measure for the effectiveness of diagnostic markers. In this paper we discuss and compare estimation procedures for this area. These are based on (i) the Mann-Whitney statistic; (ii) kernel smoothing; (iii) normal assumptions; (iv) empirical transformations to normality. These are compared in terms of bias and root mean square error in a large variety of situations by means of an extensive simulation study. Overall we find that transforming to normality usually is to be preferred except for bimodal cases where kernel methods can be effective.