The epidemiological profile of incidence and mortality from epidemics in complex humanitarian emergencies from 1990 to 2022 - A scoping review.

AIM: This study aimed to investigate the impact of communicable diseases with epidemic potential in complex emergency (CE) situations, focusing on the epidemiological profile of incidence and mortality and exploring underlying factors contributing to increased epidemic risks. METHODS: Using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses for Scoping Review (PRISMA-ScR) guidelines, we conducted a scoping review of articles published between 1990 and 2022. The search included terms related to complex emergencies, communicable diseases, outbreaks, and epidemics. We identified 92 epidemics related to CE occurring in 32 different countries. RESULTS: Communicable diseases like Shigellosis, Cholera, Measles, Meningococcal meningitis, Yellow Fever, and Malaria caused significant morbidity and mortality. Diarrhoeal diseases, particularly Cholera and Shigellosis, had the highest incidence rates. Shigella specifically had an incidence of 241.0 per 1000 (people at risk), with a mortality rate of 11.7 per 1000, while Cholera's incidence was 13.0 per 1000, with a mortality rate of 0.22 per 1000. Measles followed, with an incidence of 25.0 per 1000 and a mortality rate of 0.76 per 1000. Meningococcal Meningitis had an incidence rate of 1.3 per 1000 and a mortality rate of 0.13 per 1000. Despite their lower incidences, yellow fever at 0.8 per 1000 and malaria at 0.4 per 1000, their high case fatality rates of 20.1% and 0.4% remained concerning in CE. The qualitative synthesis reveals that factors such as water, sanitation, and hygiene, shelter and settlements, food and nutrition, and public health and healthcare in complex emergencies affect the risk of epidemics. CONCLUSION: Epidemics during complex emergencies could potentially lead to a public health crisis. Between 1990 and 2022, there have been no statistically significant changes in the trend of incidence, mortality, or fatality rates of epidemic diseases in CE. It is crucial to understand that all epidemics identified in CE are fundamentally preventable.

Still disease with persistent atypical dermatomyositis-like skin eruption: two cases associated with macrophage activation syndrome.

The typical rash of Still disease is an asymptomatic, salmon-coloured, macular, or maculopapular eruption that appears along with the fever spikes and fades when the body temperature drops. Although not included in the diagnostic criteria, there are other frequent, persistent, pruritic and polymorphic skin manifestations of Still disease that have distinctive clinical features and specific histological findings. Among these atypical persistent pruritic eruptions (PPEs), periorbital erythema and linear flagellate papules and plaques can resemble the cutaneous manifestations of dermatomyositis (DM). The presence of these lesions in adult-onset Still disease has been associated with worse prognosis and higher mortality rates, perhaps due to the development of a secondary macrophage activation syndrome (MAS). We report two cases of Still disease with persistent atypical DM-like eruption, one in a paediatric patient (a very underreported finding) and the other in an adult. Both cases developed a secondary MAS.

Excess all-cause mortality and COVID-19-related mortality: a temporal analysis in 22 countries, from January until August 2020.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. METHODS: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. RESULTS: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.

The Epidemiological Presentation Pattern of Ebola Virus Disease Outbreaks: Changes from 1976 to 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is the international health emergency paradigm due to its epidemiological presentation pattern, impact on public health, resources necessary for its control, and need for a national and international response. STUDY OBJECTIVE: The objective of this work is to study the evolution and progression of the epidemiological presentation profile of Ebola disease outbreaks since its discovery in 1976 to the present, and to explore the possible reasons for this evolution from different perspectives. METHODS: Retrospective observational study of 38 outbreaks of Ebola disease occurred from 1976 through 2019, excluding laboratory accidents. United Nations agencies and programs; Ministries of Health; the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); ReliefWeb; emergency nongovernmental organizations; and publications indexed in PubMed, EmBase, and Clinical Key have been used as sources of data. Information on the year of the outbreak, date of beginning and end, duration of the outbreak in days, number of cases, number of deaths, population at risk, geographic extension affected in Km2, and time of notification of the first cases to the World Health Organization (WHO) have been searched and analyzed. RESULTS: Populations at risk have increased (P = .024) and the geographical extent of Ebola outbreaks has grown (P = .004). Reporting time of the first cases of Ebola to WHO has been reduced (P = .017) and case fatality (P = .028) has gone from 88% to 62% in the period studied. There have been differences (P = .04) between the outbreaks produced by the Sudan and Zaire strains of the virus, both in terms of duration and case fatality ratio (Sudan strain 74.5 days on average and 62.7% of case fatality ratio versus Zaire strain with 150 days on average and 55.4% case fatality ratio). CONCLUSION: There has been a change in the epidemiological profile of the Ebola outbreaks from 1976 through 2019 with an increase in the geographical extent of the outbreaks and the population at risk, as well as a significant decrease in the outbreaks case fatality rate. There have been advances in the detection and management capacity of outbreaks, and the notification time to the WHO has been reduced. However, there are social, economic, cultural, and political obstacles that continue to greatly hinder a more efficient epidemiological approach to Ebola disease, mainly in Central Africa.