ABSTRACT
Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive, fatal disorder with a variable disease trajectory. The aim of this study was to assess the potential of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) to predict outcomes in IPF. Methods: We adopted a two-stage discovery (n = 71) and validation (n = 134) design using patients from the UCL partners (UCLp) cohort. We then combined discovery and validation cohorts and included an additional 794 people with IPF, using real-life data from 5 other UK centers, to give a combined cohort of 999 patients. Data were collected from patients presenting over a 13-year period (2006-2019) with mean follow up of 3.7 years (censoring: 2018-2020). Findings: In the discovery analysis, we showed that high values of NLR (>/ = 2.9 vs < 2.9) were associated with increased risk of mortality in IPF (HR 2.04, 95% CI 1.09-3.81, n = 71, p = 0.025). This was confirmed in the validation (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.15-3.18, n = 134, p = 0.0114) and combined cohorts (HR 1.65, n = 999, 95% CI 1.39-1.95; p < 0·0001). NLR correlated with GAP stage and GAP index (p < 0.0001). Stratifying patients by NLR category (low/high) showed significant differences in survival for GAP stage 2 (p < 0.0001), however not for GAP stage 1 or 3. In a multivariate analysis, a high NLR was an independent predictor of mortality/progression after adjustment for individual GAP components and steroid/anti-fibrotic use (p < 0·03). Furthermore, incorporation of baseline NLR in a modified GAP-stage/index, GAP-index/stage-plus, refined prognostic ability as measured by concordance (C)-index. Interpretation: We have identified NLR as a widely available test that significantly correlates with lung function, can predict outcomes in IPF and refines cohort staging with GAP. NLR may allow timely prioritisation of at-risk patients, even in the absence of lung function. Funding: Breathing Matters, GSK, CF Trust, BLF-Asthma, MRC, NIHR Alpha-1 Foundation.
ABSTRACT
The factors determining disease course and survival in fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (fHP) have not been fully elucidated.The aim of this study was to describe the characteristics of patients with fHP in a real-world cohort and investigate factors associated with worse outcomes. We aimed to explore the use of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and peripheral blood monocyte levels in predicting mortality. METHODS: A retrospective, multicentre, observational UK cohort study. RESULTS: Patients with fHP were significantly younger than those with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) (median age fHP 73 vs IPF 75 years) and were much more likely to be woman (fHP 61% vs IPF 26%). In almost half of all fHP cases (49%, n=104/211), no causative antigen was identified from either the history or specific antigen testing. Overall, fHP was associated with a better survival than IPF, although median survival of both groups was poor (fHP 62 months vs IPF 52 months).IPF survival in patients with a high NLR was significantly lower than those with a low NLR (44 vs 83 months). A monocyte count ≥0.95 K/uL also predicted significantly poorer outcomes for patients with IPF compared with <0.95 K/uL (33 vs 57 months). In contrast, NLR and monocyte count did not predict survival in the fHP cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Although fHP has a statistically lower mortality than IPF, absolute survival time of both conditions is poor. High baseline NLR and absolute monocyte counts predict worse survival in IPF but not in fHP, highlighting the potential for divergence in their pathogenic mechanisms.
