Estimates of Seasonal Influenza Burden That Could Be Averted by Improved Influenza Vaccines in the Australian Population Aged Under 65 Years, 2015-2019.

BACKGROUND: The interpretation of relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of improved influenza vaccines is complex. Estimation of burden averted is useful to contextualise their potential impact across different seasons. For the population aged under 65 years in Australia, this study estimated the additional morbidity and mortality that could be averted using improved influenza vaccines. METHODS: We used observed, season-specific (2015-2019) influenza notification and influenza-coded hospitalisation frequencies and published modelled estimates of influenza-associated hospitalisations and deaths that occurred under the prevailing influenza vaccination coverage scenario. After back-calculating to the estimated burden in the population without vaccination, we applied published standard influenza vaccine effectiveness and coverage estimates to calculate the burden potentially averted by standard and improved influenza vaccines. A plausible range of rVE values were used, assuming 50% coverage. RESULTS: The percentage point difference in absolute vaccine effectiveness (VE) of an improved vaccine compared to a standard vaccine is directly proportional to its rVE and inversely proportional to the effectiveness of the standard vaccine. The incremental burden averted by an improved vaccine is a function of both its difference in absolute VE and the severity of the influenza season. Assuming an rVE of 15% with 50% coverage, the improved vaccine was estimated to additionally avert 1517 to 12,641 influenza notifications, 287 to 1311 influenza-coded hospitalisations and 9 to 33 modelled all-cause influenza deaths per year compared to the standard vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: Improved vaccines can have substantial clinical and population impact, particularly when the effectiveness of standard vaccines is low, and burden is high.

Burden of antimicrobial prescribing in primary care attributable to sore throat: a retrospective cohort study of patient record data.

BACKGROUND: Reducing antibiotic use in Australia, and the subsequent impact on antimicrobial resistance, requires multiple, sustained approaches with appropriate resources and support. Additional strategies to reduce antibiotic prescribing include effective vaccines, against pathogens such as Streptococcus pyogenes, the most common bacterial cause of sore throat. As part of efforts towards assessing the benefits of introducing new strategies to reduce antimicrobial prescribing, we aimed to determine the burden of antimicrobial prescribing for sore throat in general practice. METHODS: General practice activity data from 2013 - 2017 derived from the first 8 practices participating in the 'Primary Care Audit, Teaching and Research Open Network' (Patron) program were analysed according to reason for visit (upper respiratory tract infection, URTI, or sore throat) and antibiotic prescription. The main outcome measures were percentage of sore throat or URTI presentations with antibiotic prescription by age. RESULTS: A total of 722,339 visits to general practice were made by 65,449 patients; 5.7% of visits were for URTI with 0.8% meeting the more specific criteria for sore throat. 66.1% of sore throat visits and 36.2% of URTI visits resulted in antibiotic prescription. Penicillin, the recommended antibiotic for sore throat when indicated, was the antibiotic of choice in only 52.9% of sore throat cases prescribed antibiotics. Broader spectrum antibiotics were prescribed more frequently in older age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of antibiotic prescribing for sore throat is high and broad, despite Australian Therapeutic guideline recommendations. Multiple, sustained interventions to reduce prescribing, including availability of effective S. pyogenes vaccines that could reduce the incidence of streptococcal pharyngitis, could obviate the need to prescribe antibiotics and support ongoing efforts to promote antimicrobial stewardship.

Household transmission investigation: Design, reporting and critical appraisal.

Background: Household transmission investigations (HHTIs) contribute timely epidemiologic knowledge in response to emerging pathogens. HHTIs conducted in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-21 reported variable methodological approaches, producing epidemiological estimates that vary in meaning, precision and accuracy. Because specific tools to assist with the optimal design and critical appraisal of HHTIs are not available, the aggregation and pooling of inferences from HHTIs to inform policy and interventions may be challenging. Methods: In this manuscript, we discuss key aspects of the HHTI design, provide recommendations for the reporting of these studies and propose an appraisal tool that contributes to the optimal design and critical appraisal of HHTIs. Results: The appraisal tool consists of 12 questions that explore 10 aspects of HHTIs and can be answered 'yes', 'no' or 'unclear'. We provide an example of the use of this tool in the context of a systematic review that aimed to quantify the household secondary attack rate from HHTIs. Conclusion: We seek to fill a gap in the epidemiologic literature and contribute to standardised HHTI approaches across settings to achieve richer and more informative datasets.

Evaluation of the Australian first few X household transmission project for COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The Australian First Few X (FFX) Household Transmission Project for COVID-19 was the first prospective, multi-jurisdictional study of its kind in Australia. The project was undertaken as a partnership between federal and state health departments and the Australian Partnership for Preparedness Research on Infectious Disease Emergencies (APPRISE) and was active from April to October 2020. METHODS: We aimed to identify and explore the challenges and strengths of the Australian FFX Project to inform future FFX study development and integration into pandemic preparedness plans. We asked key stakeholders and partners involved with implementation to identify and rank factors relating to the strengths and challenges of project implementation in two rounds of modified Delphi surveys. Key representatives from jurisdictional health departments were then interviewed to contextualise findings within public health processes and information needs to develop a final set of recommendations for FFX study development in Australia. RESULTS: Four clear recommendations emerged from the evaluation. Future preparedness planning should aim to formalise and embed partnerships between health departments and researchers to help better integrate project data collection into core public health surveillance activities. The development of functional, adaptable protocols with pre-established ethics and governance approvals and investment in national data infrastructure were additional priority areas noted by evaluation participants. CONCLUSION: The evaluation provided a great opportunity to consolidate lessons learnt from the Australian FFX Household Transmission Project. The developed recommendations should be incorporated into future pandemic preparedness plans in Australia to enable effective implementation and increase local utility and value of the FFX platform within emergency public health response.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in standardised first few X cases and household transmission investigations: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

We aimed to estimate the household secondary infection attack rate (hSAR) of SARS-CoV-2 in investigations aligned with the WHO Unity Studies Household Transmission Investigations (HHTI) protocol. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis according to PRISMA 2020 guidelines. We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus and medRxiv/bioRxiv for "Unity-aligned" First Few X cases (FFX) and HHTIs published 1 December 2019 to 26 July 2021. Standardised early results were shared by WHO Unity Studies collaborators (to 1 October 2021). We used a bespoke tool to assess investigation methodological quality. Values for hSAR and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were extracted or calculated from crude data. Heterogeneity was assessed by visually inspecting overlap of CIs on forest plots and quantified in meta-analyses. Of 9988 records retrieved, 80 articles (64 from databases; 16 provided by Unity Studies collaborators) were retained in the systematic review; 62 were included in the primary meta-analysis. hSAR point estimates ranged from 2% to 90% (95% prediction interval: 3%-71%; I 2 = 99.7%); I 2 values remained >99% in subgroup analyses, indicating high, unexplained heterogeneity and leading to a decision not to report pooled hSAR estimates. FFX and HHTI remain critical epidemiological tools for early and ongoing characterisation of novel infectious pathogens. The large, unexplained variance in hSAR estimates emphasises the need to further support standardisation in planning, conduct and analysis, and for clear and comprehensive reporting of FFX and HHTIs in time and place, to guide evidence-based pandemic preparedness and response efforts for SARS-CoV-2, influenza and future novel respiratory viruses.

Developmental role of PHD2 in the pathogenesis of pseudohypoxic pheochromocytoma.

Despite a general role for the HIF hydroxylase system in cellular oxygen sensing and tumour hypoxia, cancer-associated mutations of genes in this pathway, including PHD2, PHD1, EPAS1 (encoding HIF-2α) are highly tissue-restricted, being observed in pseudohypoxic pheochromocytoma and paraganglioma (PPGL) but rarely, if ever, in other tumours. In an effort to understand that paradox and gain insights into the pathogenesis of pseudohypoxic PPGL, we constructed mice in which the principal HIF prolyl hydroxylase, Phd2, is inactivated in the adrenal medulla using TH-restricted Cre recombinase. Investigation of these animals revealed a gene expression pattern closely mimicking that of pseudohypoxic PPGL. Spatially resolved analyses demonstrated a binary distribution of two contrasting patterns of gene expression among adrenal medullary cells. Phd2 inactivation resulted in a marked shift in this distribution towards a Pnmt-/Hif-2α+/Rgs5+ population. This was associated with morphological abnormalities of adrenal development, including ectopic TH+ cells within the adrenal cortex and external to the adrenal gland. These changes were ablated by combined inactivation of Phd2 with Hif-2α, but not Hif-1α. However, they could not be reproduced by inactivation of Phd2 in adult life, suggesting that they arise from dysregulation of this pathway during adrenal development. Together with the clinical observation that pseudohypoxic PPGL manifests remarkably high heritability, our findings suggest that this type of tumour likely arises from dysregulation of a tissue-restricted action of the PHD2/HIF-2α pathway affecting adrenal development in early life and provides a model for the study of the relevant processes.

Spotlight influenza: The 2019/20 influenza season and the impact of COVID-19 on influenza surveillance in the WHO European Region.

BackgroundAnnual seasonal influenza activity in the northern hemisphere causes a high burden of disease during the winter months, peaking in the first weeks of the year.AimWe describe the 2019/20 influenza season and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sentinel surveillance in the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region.MethodsWe analysed weekly epidemiological and virological influenza data from sentinel primary care and hospital sources reported by countries, territories and areas (hereafter countries) in the European Region.ResultsWe observed co-circulation of influenza B/Victoria-lineage, A(H1)pdm09 and A(H3) viruses during the 2019/20 season, with different dominance patterns observed across the Region. A higher proportion of patients with influenza A virus infection than type B were observed. The influenza activity started in week 47/2019, and influenza positivity rate was ≥ 50% for 2 weeks (05-06/2020) rather than 5-8 weeks in the previous five seasons. In many countries a rapid reduction in sentinel reports and the highest influenza activity was observed in weeks 09-13/2020. Reporting was reduced from week 14/2020 across the Region coincident with the onset of widespread circulation of SARS-CoV-2.ConclusionsOverall, influenza type A viruses dominated; however, there were varying patterns across the Region, with dominance of B/Victoria-lineage viruses in a few countries. The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to an earlier end of the influenza season and reduced influenza virus circulation probably owing to restricted healthcare access and public health measures.

Influenza epidemiology and burden of disease in Mongolia, 2013-2014 to 2017-2018.

BACKGROUND: Mongolia is a vast, sparsely populated country in central Asia. Its harsh climate and nomadic lifestyle make the population vulnerable to acute respiratory infections, particularly influenza. Evidence on the morbidity, mortality and socioeconomic impact of influenza in Mongolia is scarce; however, routine surveillance for influenza-like illness (ILI), severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) and laboratory-detected influenza is conducted. This paper describes the epidemiology of influenza and the estimated burden of influenza-associated illness in Mongolia in the five influenza seasons between 2013-2014 and 2017-2018. METHODS: Demographic and laboratory data from 152 sentinel surveillance sites on all patients who met the case definitions of ILI and SARI between October 2013 and May 2018 were extracted and analysed as described in A Manual for Estimating Disease Burden Associated with Seasonal Influenza. RESULTS: The estimated annual influenza-associated ILI and SARI rates, presented as ranges, were 1279-2798 and 81-666 cases per 100 000 population, respectively. Children aged < 5 years accounted for 67% of all ILI cases and 79% of all SARI cases. The annual specimen positivity for influenza was highest (11-30% for ILI and 8-31% for SARI) for children aged 5- < 15 years and children < 2 years old, respectively. The annual mortality rate due to pneumonia and SARI was highest among children aged < 2 years (15.8-54.0 per 100 000 population). Although the incidence of influenza-associated ILI and SARI was lowest for people aged 365 years, the mortality rate due to pneumonia and SARI (1.2-5.1 per 100 000) was higher than that for those aged 15-64 years. CONCLUSION: The estimated influenza-associated ILI and SARI incidence rates are high in Mongolia, and children, especially those aged < 5 years, have the highest influenza-associated burden in Mongolia. These findings provide evidence for decision-makers in Mongolia to consider targeted influenza vaccination, particularly for children.

Factors associated with knowledges and attitudes about measles and rubella immunization in a non-health care occupational setting in Japan.

INTRODUCTION: Elimination of measles and rubella has been achieved in several countries and some regions. After verified measles elimination, some countries have reported outbreaks among adults in occupational settings such as health care institution and school setting. Studies have reported that knowledge and attitude for measles and/or rubella are significantly associated with immunization uptake in adults, but few studies have been conducted in settings other than health care facilities and schools. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among 134 office employees during a routine health checkup in June 17-20, 2014, to examine the association between willingness to receive immunization and knowledge and attitudes. RESULTS: Approximately 75% had a protective level of antibody for measles (PA≥1:256) and rubella (HI ≥ 32 IU/mL). After adjustment for sex, age and immune status, the attitudes that immunization prevents measles (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 7.8, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 2.5-24.7) and prevents infection and transmission to others (aOR = 4.0, 95%CI: 1.4-11.4). Knowing that males are the vulnerable group for rubella infection (aOR = 5.8, 95%CI: 2.4-13.9), attitude that immunization prevents rubella infection (aOR = 7.9, 95%CI: 2.4-26.5), and prevents infection and transmit to others (aOR = 6.7, 95%CI: 2.2-20.1) were significantly associated with willingness to receive immunization after adjustment for sex, age, and immune status. CONCLUSIONS: Studies have shown that physicians and other health care workers are important source of information for promotion of immunization. Thus, we recommend that physicians educate and promote immunization for measles and/or rubella to adults working in offices during routine health checks.

Virological surveillance of influenza viruses in the WHO European Region in 2019/20 - impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted the 2019/20 WHO European Region influenza surveillance. Compared with previous 4-year averages, antigenic and genetic characterisations decreased by 17% (3,140 vs 2,601) and 24% (4,474 vs 3,403). Of subtyped influenza A viruses, 56% (26,477/47,357) were A(H1)pdm09, 44% (20,880/47,357) A(H3). Of characterised B viruses, 98% (4,585/4,679) were B/Victoria. Considerable numbers of viruses antigenically differed from northern hemisphere vaccine components. In 2020/21, maintaining influenza virological surveillance, while supporting SARS-CoV-2 surveillance is crucial.

Improved Computed Tomography Contrast Injection Rates Through Implantable Chest Power Ports.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to optimize chest port contrast injections using stepwise improvements. METHODS: Ex vivo injections were tested. Two hundred scans using power port injections were then evaluated. RESULTS: The highest flow rate was achieved using a 19G access needle, larger diameter tubing, and warmed contrast.The mean injection rates in baseline and postimprovement groups were 2.7 ± 0.4 and 4.8 ± 0.4 mL/s, respectively (P < .0001). CONCLUSION: Component optimization of the port apparatus can maximize contrast flow rates.

First cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the WHO European Region, 24 January to 21 February 2020.

In the WHO European Region, COVID-19 surveillance was implemented 27 January 2020. We detail the first European cases. As at 21 February, nine European countries reported 47 cases. Among 38 cases studied, 21 were linked to two clusters in Germany and France, 14 were infected in China. Median case age was 42 years; 25 were male. Late detection of the clusters' index cases delayed isolation of further local cases. As at 5 March, there were 4,250 cases.

Marked and rapid effects of pharmacological HIF-2α antagonism on hypoxic ventilatory control.

Hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) is strikingly upregulated in many types of cancer, and there is great interest in applying inhibitors of HIF as anticancer therapeutics. The most advanced of these are small molecules that target the HIF-2 isoform through binding the PAS-B domain of HIF-2α. These molecules are undergoing clinical trials with promising results in renal and other cancers where HIF-2 is considered to be driving growth. Nevertheless, a central question remains as to whether such inhibitors affect physiological responses to hypoxia at relevant doses. Here, we show that pharmacological HIF-2α inhibition with PT2385, at doses similar to those reported to inhibit tumor growth, rapidly impaired ventilatory responses to hypoxia, abrogating both ventilatory acclimatization and carotid body cell proliferative responses to sustained hypoxia. Mice carrying a HIF-2α PAS-B S305M mutation that disrupts PT2385 binding, but not dimerization with HIF-1ß, did not respond to PT2385, indicating that these effects are on-target. Furthermore, the finding of a hypomorphic ventilatory phenotype in untreated HIF-2α S305M mutant mice suggests a function for the HIF-2α PAS-B domain beyond heterodimerization with HIF-1ß. Although PT2385 was well tolerated, the findings indicate the need for caution in patients who are dependent on hypoxic ventilatory drive.

Optimal timing of influenza vaccine during pregnancy: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women have an elevated risk of illness and hospitalisation from influenza. Pregnant women are recommended to be prioritised for influenza vaccination during any stage of pregnancy. The risk of seasonal influenza varies substantially throughout the year in temperate climates; however, there is limited knowledge of how vaccination timing during pregnancy impacts the benefits received by the mother and foetus. OBJECTIVES: To compare antenatal vaccination timing with regard to influenza vaccine immunogenicity during pregnancy and transplacental transfer to their newborns. METHODS: Studies were eligible for inclusion if immunogenicity to influenza vaccine was evaluated in women stratified by trimester of pregnancy. Haemagglutination inhibition (HI) titres, stratified by trimester of vaccination, had to be measured at either pre-vaccination and within one month post-vaccination, post-vaccination and at delivery in the mother, or in cord/newborn blood. Authors searched PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and EMBASE databases from inception until June 2016 and authors of identified studies were contacted for additional data. Extracted data were tabulated and summarised via random-effect meta-analyses and qualitative methods. RESULTS: Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analyses found that compared with women vaccinated in an earlier trimester, those vaccinated in a later trimester had a greater fold increase in HI titres (1.33- to 1.96-fold) and higher HI titres in cord/newborn blood (1.21- to 1.64-fold). CONCLUSIONS: This review provides comparative analysis of the effect of vaccination timing on maternal immunogenicity and protection of the infant that is informative and relevant to current vaccine scheduling for pregnant women.

Intraseason decline in influenza vaccine effectiveness during the 2016 southern hemisphere influenza season: A test-negative design study and phylogenetic assessment.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the effectiveness of seasonal inactivated influenza vaccine and the potential influence of timing of immunization on vaccine effectiveness (VE) using data from the 2016 southern hemisphere influenza season. METHODS: Data were pooled from three routine syndromic sentinel surveillance systems in general practices in Australia. Each system routinely collected specimens for influenza testing from patients presenting with influenza-like illness. Next generation sequencing was used to characterize viruses. Using a test-negative design, VE was estimated based on the odds of vaccination among influenza-positive cases as compared to influenza-negative controls. Subgroup analyses were used to estimate VE by type, subtype and lineage, as well as age group and time between vaccination and symptom onset. RESULTS: A total of 1085 patients tested for influenza in 2016 were included in the analysis, of whom 447 (41%) tested positive for influenza. The majority of detections were influenza A/H3N2 (74%). One-third (31%) of patients received the 2016 southern hemisphere formulation influenza vaccine. Overall, VE was estimated at 40% (95% CI: 18-56%). VE estimates were highest for patients immunized within two months prior to symptom onset (VE: 60%; 95% CI: 26-78%) and lowest for patients immunized >4 months prior to symptom onset (VE: 19%; 95% CI: -73-62%). DISCUSSION: Overall, the 2016 influenza vaccine showed good protection against laboratory-confirmed infection among general practice patients. Results by duration of vaccination suggest a significant decline in effectiveness during the 2016 influenza season, indicating immunization close to influenza season offered optimal protection.

PHD2 inactivation in Type I cells drives HIF-2α-dependent multilineage hyperplasia and the formation of paraganglioma-like carotid bodies.

KEY POINTS: The carotid body is a peripheral arterial chemoreceptor that regulates ventilation in response to both acute and sustained hypoxia. Type I cells in this organ respond to low oxygen both acutely by depolarization and dense core vesicle secretion and, over the longer term, via cellular proliferation and enhanced ventilatory responses. Using lineage analysis, the present study shows that the Type I cell lineage itself proliferates and expands in response to sustained hypoxia. Inactivation of HIF-2α in Type I cells impairs the ventilatory, proliferative and cell intrinsic (dense core vesicle) responses to hypoxia. Inactivation of PHD2 in Type I cells induces multilineage hyperplasia and ultrastructural changes in dense core vesicles to form paraganglioma-like carotid bodies. These changes, similar to those observed in hypoxia, are dependent on HIF-2α. Taken together, these findings demonstrate a key role for the PHD2-HIF-2α couple in Type I cells with respect to the oxygen sensing functions of the carotid body. ABSTRACT: The carotid body is a peripheral chemoreceptor that plays a central role in mammalian oxygen homeostasis. In response to sustained hypoxia, it manifests a rapid cellular proliferation and an associated increase in responsiveness to hypoxia. Understanding the cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying these processes is of interest both to specialized chemoreceptive functions of that organ and, potentially, to the general physiology and pathophysiology of cellular hypoxia. We have combined cell lineage tracing technology and conditionally inactivated alleles in recombinant mice to examine the role of components of the HIF hydroxylase pathway in specific cell types within the carotid body. We show that exposure to sustained hypoxia (10% oxygen) drives rapid expansion of the Type I, tyrosine hydroxylase expressing cell lineage, with little transdifferentiation to (or from) that lineage. Inactivation of a specific HIF isoform, HIF-2α, in the Type I cells was associated with a greatly reduced proliferation of Type I cells and hypoxic ventilatory responses, with ultrastructural evidence of an abnormality in the action of hypoxia on dense core secretory vesicles. We also show that inactivation of the principal HIF prolyl hydroxylase PHD2 within the Type I cell lineage is sufficient to cause multilineage expansion of the carotid body, with characteristics resembling paragangliomas. These morphological changes were dependent on the integrity of HIF-2α. These findings implicate specific components of the HIF hydroxylase pathway (PHD2 and HIF-2α) within Type I cells of the carotid body with respect to the oxygen sensing and adaptive functions of that organ.

Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration.

OBJECTIVE: Recent studies have used Bayesian methods to predict timing of influenza epidemics many weeks in advance, but there is no documented evaluation of how such forecasts might support the day-to-day operations of public health staff. METHODS: During the 2015 influenza season in Melbourne, Australia, weekly forecasts were presented at Health Department surveillance unit meetings, where they were evaluated and updated in light of expert opinion to improve their accuracy and usefulness. RESULTS: Predictive capacity of the model was substantially limited by delays in reporting and processing arising from an unprecedented number of notifications, disproportionate to seasonal intensity. Adjustment of the predictive algorithm to account for these delays and increased reporting propensity improved both current situational awareness and forecasting accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Collaborative engagement with public health practitioners in model development improved understanding of the context and limitations of emerging surveillance data. Incorporation of these insights in a quantitative model resulted in more robust estimates of disease activity for public health use. Implications for public health: In addition to predicting future disease trends, forecasting methods can quantify the impact of delays in data availability and variable reporting practice on the accuracy of current epidemic assessment. Such evidence supports investment in systems capacity.

Low interim influenza vaccine effectiveness, Australia, 1 May to 24 September 2017.

In 2017, influenza seasonal activity was high in the southern hemisphere. We present interim influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates from Australia. Adjusted VE was low overall at 33% (95% confidence interval (CI): 17 to 46), 50% (95% CI: 8 to 74) for A(H1)pdm09, 10% (95% CI: -16 to 31) for A(H3) and 57% (95% CI: 41 to 69) for influenza B. For A(H3), VE was poorer for those vaccinated in the current and prior seasons.