Laplace's demon in biology: Models of evolutionary prediction.

Our ability to predict natural phenomena can be limited by incomplete information. This issue is exemplified by "Laplace's demon," an imaginary creature proposed in the 18th century, who knew everything about everything, and thus could predict the full nature of the universe forward or backward in time. Quantum mechanics, among other things, has cast doubt on the possibility of Laplace's demon in the full sense, but the idea still serves as a useful metaphor for thinking about the extent to which prediction is limited by incomplete information on deterministic processes versus random factors. Here, we use simple analytical models and computer simulations to illustrate how data limits can be captured in a Bayesian framework, and how they influence our ability to predict evolution. We show how uncertainty in measurements of natural selection, or low predictability of external environmental factors affecting selection, can greatly reduce predictive power, often swamping the influence of intrinsic randomness caused by genetic drift. Thus, more accurate knowledge concerning the causes and action of natural selection is key to improving prediction. Fortunately, our analyses and simulations show quantitatively that reasonable improvements in data quantity and quality can meaningfully increase predictability.

Belonging in STEM: an interactive, iterative approach to create and maintain a diverse learning community.

Diversity is a key driver of scientific innovation, yet fields in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) have struggled to retain diverse communities. Research suggests that fostering a sense of belonging is critical for retaining diversity. We propose an iterative process that aims to improve sense of belonging among laboratory (lab) members through self-reflection and community collective action.

Homage to Felsenstein 1981, or why are there so few/many species?

If there are no constraints on the process of speciation, then the number of species might be expected to match the number of available niches and this number might be indefinitely large. One possible constraint is the opportunity for allopatric divergence. In 1981, Felsenstein used a simple and elegant model to ask if there might also be genetic constraints. He showed that progress towards speciation could be described by the build-up of linkage disequilibrium among divergently selected loci and between these loci and those contributing to other forms of reproductive isolation. Therefore, speciation is opposed by recombination, because it tends to break down linkage disequilibria. Felsenstein then introduced a crucial distinction between "two-allele" models, which are subject to this effect, and "one-allele" models, which are free from the recombination constraint. These fundamentally important insights have been the foundation for both empirical and theoretical studies of speciation ever since.

Leveraging whole genome sequencing data for demographic inference with approximate Bayesian computation.

Accounting for historical demographic features, such as the strength and timing of gene flow and divergence times between closely related lineages, is vital for many inferences in evolutionary biology. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is one method commonly used to estimate demographic parameters. However, the DNA sequences used as input for this method, often microsatellites or RADseq loci, usually represent a small fraction of the genome. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) data, on the other hand, have been used less often with ABC, and questions remain about the potential benefit of, and how to best implement, this type of data; we used pseudo-observed data sets to explore such questions. Specifically, we addressed the potential improvements in parameter estimation accuracy that could be associated with WGS data in multiple contexts; namely, we quantified the effects of (a) more data, (b) haplotype-based summary statistics, and (c) locus length. Compared with a hypothetical RADseq data set with 2.5 Mbp of data, using a 1 Gbp data set consisting of 100 Kbp sequences led to substantial gains in the accuracy of parameter estimates, which was mostly due to haplotype statistics and increased data. We also quantified the effects of including (a) locus-specific recombination rates, and (b) background selection information in ABC analyses. Importantly, assuming uniform recombination or ignoring background selection had a negative effect on accuracy in many cases. Software and results from this method validation study should be useful for future demographic history analyses.

Unifying Theoretical and Empirical Perspectives on Genomic Differentiation.

Differentiation is often heterogeneous across the genomes of diverging populations. Despite substantial recent progress, much work remains to improve our abilities to connect genomic patterns to underlying evolutionary processes. Crosstalk between theoretical and empirical research has shaped the field of evolutionary genetics since its foundation and needs to be greatly enhanced for modern datasets. We leverage recent insights from theoretical and empirical studies to identify existing gaps and suggest pathways across them. We stress the importance of reporting empirical data in standardized ways to enable meta-analyses and to facilitate parameterization of analyses and models. Additionally, a more comprehensive view of potential mechanisms - especially considering variable recombination rates and ubiquitous background selection - and their interactions should replace common, oversimplified assumptions.

Demographic inference in barn swallows using whole-genome data shows signal for bottleneck and subspecies differentiation during the Holocene.

Accounting for historical demographic features is vital for many types of evolutionary inferences, including the estimation of divergence times between closely related populations. In barn swallow, Hirundo rustica, inferring historical population sizes and subspecies divergence times can shed light on the recent co-evolution of this species with humans. Pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent uncovered population growth beginning on the order of one million years ago-which may reflect the radiation of the broader Hirundo genus-and a more recent population decline. Additionally, we used approximate Bayesian computation to evaluate hypotheses about recent timescale barn swallow demography, including population growth due to human commensalism, and a potential founder event associated with the onset of nesting on human structures. We found signal for a bottleneck event approximately 7,700 years ago, near the time that humans began building substantial structures, although there was considerable uncertainty associated with this estimate. Subspecies differentiation and subsequent growth occurred after the bottleneck in the best-supported model, an order of magnitude more recently than previous estimates in this system. We also compared results obtained from whole-genome sequencing versus reduced representation sequencing, finding many similar results despite substantial allelic dropout in the reduced representation data, which may have affected estimates of some parameters. This study presents the first genetic evidence of a potential barn swallow founder effect and subspecies divergence coinciding with the Holocene, which is an important step in analysing the biogeographical history of a well-known human commensal species.

Transitions from Single- to Multi-Locus Processes during Speciation with Gene Flow.

During speciation-with-gene-flow, a transition from single-locus to multi-locus processes can occur, as strong coupling of multiple loci creates a barrier to gene flow. Testing predictions about such transitions with empirical data requires building upon past theoretical work and the continued development of quantitative approaches. We simulated genomes under several evolutionary scenarios of gene flow and divergent selection, extending previous work with the additions of neutral sites and coupling statistics. We used these simulations to investigate, in a preliminary way, if and how selected and neutral sites differ in the conditions they require for transitions during speciation. For the parameter combinations we explored, as the per-locus strength of selection grew and/or migration decreased, it became easier for selected sites to show divergence-and thus to rise in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with each other as a statistical consequence-farther in advance of the conditions under which neutral sites could diverge. Indeed, even very low rates of effective gene flow were sufficient to prevent differentiation at neutral sites. However, once strong enough, coupling among selected sites eventually reduced gene flow at neutral sites as well. To explore whether similar transitions might be detectable in empirical data, we used published genome resequencing data from three taxa of Heliconius butterflies. We found that fixation index ( F S T ) outliers and allele-frequency outliers exhibited stronger patterns of within-deme LD than the genomic background, as expected. The statistical characteristics of within-deme LD-likely indicative of the strength of coupling of barrier loci-varied between chromosomes and taxonomic comparisons. Qualitatively, the patterns we observed in the empirical data and in our simulations suggest that selection drives rapid genome-wide transitions to multi-locus coupling, illustrating how divergence and gene flow interact along the speciation continuum.

Experimental investigation of alternative transmission functions: Quantitative evidence for the importance of nonlinear transmission dynamics in host-parasite systems.

Understanding pathogen transmission is crucial for predicting and managing disease. Nonetheless, experimental comparisons of alternative functional forms of transmission remain rare, and those experiments that are conducted are often not designed to test the full range of possible forms. To differentiate among 10 candidate transmission functions, we used a novel experimental design in which we independently varied four factors-duration of exposure, numbers of parasites, numbers of hosts and parasite density-in laboratory infection experiments. We used interactions between amphibian hosts and trematode parasites as a model system and all candidate models incorporated parasite depletion. An additional manipulation involving anaesthesia addressed the effects of host behaviour on transmission form. Across all experiments, nonlinear transmission forms involving either a power law or a negative binomial function were the best-fitting models and consistently outperformed the linear density-dependent and density-independent functions. By testing previously published data for two other host-macroparasite systems, we also found support for the same nonlinear transmission forms. Although manipulations of parasite density are common in transmission studies, the comprehensive set of variables tested in our experiments revealed that variation in density alone was least likely to differentiate among competing transmission functions. Across host-pathogen systems, nonlinear functions may often more accurately represent transmission dynamics and thus provide more realistic predictions for infection.

Tipping points in the dynamics of speciation.

Speciation can be gradual or sudden and involve few or many genetic changes. Inferring the processes generating such patterns is difficult, and may require consideration of emergent and non-linear properties of speciation, such as when small changes at tipping points have large effects on differentiation. Tipping points involve positive feedback and indirect selection stemming from associations between genomic regions, bi-stability due to effects of initial conditions and evolutionary history, and dependence on modularity of system components. These features are associated with sudden 'regime shifts' in other cellular, ecological, and societal systems. Thus, tools used to understand other complex systems could be fruitfully applied in speciation research.

Selection on a genetic polymorphism counteracts ecological speciation in a stick insect.

The interplay between selection and aspects of the genetic architecture of traits (such as linkage, dominance, and epistasis) can either drive or constrain speciation [1-3]. Despite accumulating evidence that speciation can progress to "intermediate" stages-with populations evolving only partial reproductive isolation-studies describing selective mechanisms that impose constraints on speciation are more rare than those describing drivers. The stick insect Timema cristinae provides an example of a system in which partial reproductive isolation has evolved between populations adapted to different host plant environments, in part due to divergent selection acting on a pattern polymorphism [4, 5]. Here, we demonstrate how selection on a green/melanistic color polymorphism counteracts speciation in this system. Specifically, divergent selection between hosts does not occur on color phenotypes because melanistic T. cristinae are cryptic on the stems of both host species, are resistant to a fungal pathogen, and have a mating advantage. Using genetic crosses and genome-wide association mapping, we quantify the genetic architecture of both the pattern and color polymorphism, illustrating their simple genetic control. We use these empirical results to develop an individual-based model that shows how the melanistic phenotype acts as a "genetic bridge" that increases gene flow between populations living on different hosts. Our results demonstrate how variation in the nature of selection acting on traits, and aspects of trait genetic architecture, can impose constraints on both local adaptation and speciation.

Assessing when chromosomal rearrangements affect the dynamics of speciation: implications from computer simulations.

Many hypotheses have been put forth to explain the origin and spread of inversions, and their significance for speciation. Several recent genic models have proposed that inversions promote speciation with gene flow due to the adaptive significance of the genes contained within them and because of the effects inversions have on suppressing recombination. However, the consequences of inversions for the dynamics of genome wide divergence across the speciation continuum remain unclear, an issue we examine here. We review a framework for the genomics of speciation involving the congealing of the genome into alternate adaptive states representing species ("genome wide congealing"). We then place inversions in this context as examples of how genetic hitchhiking can potentially hasten genome wide congealing. Specifically, we use simulation models to (i) examine the conditions under which inversions may speed genome congealing and (ii) quantify predicted magnitudes of these effects. Effects of inversions on promoting speciation were most common and pronounced when inversions were initially fixed between populations before secondary contact and adaptation involved many genes with small fitness effects. Further work is required on the role of underdominance and epistasis between a few loci of major effect within inversions. The results highlight five important aspects of the roles of inversions in speciation: (i) the geographic context of the origins and spread of inversions, (ii) the conditions under which inversions can facilitate divergence, (iii) the magnitude of that facilitation, (iv) the extent to which the buildup of divergence is likely to be biased within vs. outside of inversions, and (v) the dynamics of the appearance and disappearance of exceptional divergence within inversions. We conclude by discussing the empirical challenges in showing that inversions play a central role in facilitating speciation with gene flow.

Genome-wide congealing and rapid transitions across the speciation continuum during speciation with gene flow.

Our current understanding of speciation is often based on considering a relatively small number of genes, sometimes in isolation of one another. Here, we describe a possible emergent genome process involving the aggregate effect of many genes contributing to the evolution of reproductive isolation across the speciation continuum. When a threshold number of divergently selected mutations of modest to low fitness effects accumulate between populations diverging with gene flow, nonlinear transitions can occur in which levels of adaptive differentiation, linkage disequilibrium, and reproductive isolation dramatically increase. In effect, the genomes of the populations start to "congeal" into distinct entities representing different species. At this stage, reproductive isolation changes from being a characteristic of specific, divergently selected genes to a property of the genome. We examine conditions conducive to such genome-wide congealing (GWC), describe how to empirically test for GWC, and highlight a putative empirical example involving Rhagoletis fruit flies. We conclude with cautious optimism that the models and concepts discussed here, once extended to large numbers of neutral markers, may provide a framework for integrating information from genome scans, selection experiments, quantitative trait loci mapping, association studies, and natural history to develop a deeper understanding of the genomics of speciation.

Mutation-order divergence by sexual selection: diversification of sexual signals in similar environments as a first step in speciation.

The origin of species remains a central question, and recent research focuses on the role of ecological differences in promoting speciation. Ecological differences create opportunities for divergent selection (i.e. 'ecological' speciation), a Darwinian hypothesis that hardly requires justification. In contrast, 'mutation-order' speciation proposes that, instead of adapting to different environments, populations find different ways to adapt to similar environments, implying that speciation does not require ecological differences. This distinction is critical as it provides an alternative hypothesis to the prevailing view that ecological differences drive speciation. Speciation by sexual selection lies at the centre of debates about the importance of ecological differences in promoting speciation; here, we present verbal and mathematical models of mutation-order divergence by sexual selection. We develop three general cases and provide a two-locus population genetic model for each. Results indicate that alternative secondary sexual traits can fix in populations that initially experience similar natural and sexual selection and that divergent traits and preferences can remain stable in the face of low gene flow. This stable divergence can facilitate subsequent divergence that completes or reinforces speciation. We argue that a mutation-order process could explain widespread diversity in secondary sexual traits among closely related, allopatric species.

Theoretical models of the influence of genomic architecture on the dynamics of speciation.

A long-standing problem in evolutionary biology has been determining whether and how gradual, incremental changes at the gene level can account for rapid speciation and bursts of adaptive radiation. Using genome-scale computer simulations, we extend previous theory showing how gradual adaptive change can generate nonlinear population transitions, resulting in the rapid formation of new, reproductively isolated species. We show that these transitions occur via a mechanism rooted in a basic property of biological heredity: the organization of genes in genomes. Genomic organization of genes facilitates two processes: (i) the build-up of statistical associations among large numbers of genes and (ii) the action of divergent selection on persistent combinations of alleles. When a population has accumulated a critical amount of standing, divergently selected variation, the combination of these two processes allows many mutations of small effect to act synergistically and precipitously split one population into two discontinuous, reproductively isolated groups. Periods of allopatry, chromosomal linkage among loci, and large-effect alleles can facilitate this process under some conditions, but are not required for it. Our results complement and extend existing theory on alternative stable states during population divergence, distinct phases of speciation and the rapid emergence of multilocus barriers to gene flow. The results are thus a step towards aligning population genomic theory with modern empirical studies.

Surfing downhill: when should population range expansion be characterized by reductions in fitness?

Deleterious mutations are found in all populations. Their existence at low frequencies is easily understood, but explaining how they reach high frequencies has long been a challenging problem for population geneticists and evolutionary biologists. Some cases of apparently deleterious alleles are explained by pleiotropy or environmental context dependence, but for universally deleterious alleles, two mechanisms are generally invoked to explain how they can reach high frequencies: (i) genetic drift in small populations and (ii) 'hitchhiking' (sensu Maynard Smith J, Haigh J, Genetical Research, 1974, 23, 23-35) involving tight linkage to beneficial mutations. However, these oft-cited explanations do not immediately resolve the problem because many real populations of interest have population sizes and recombination rates that are large enough to render it nearly impossible for all but the most weakly deleterious (i.e. nearly neutral) mutations to establish and persist. Furthermore, both mechanisms are usually silent about patterns of intraspecific variation in mutation load. In this issue, Peischl S, Dupanloup I, Kirkpatrick M, Excoffier L (Molecular Ecology, 2013) develop and explore a mechanism that puts drift and hitchhiking of deleterious mutations into a specific spatial and demographic context: range expansions. Importantly, their findings provide a plausible explanation for puzzling empirical patterns, such as the paradoxical observation that genotypes at the leading edge of a range expansion are sometimes less fit than those in the ancestral range (when fitness is assessed in a common environment).

Genetic hitchhiking and the dynamic buildup of genomic divergence during speciation with gene flow.

A major issue in evolutionary biology is explaining patterns of differentiation observed in population genomic data, as divergence can be due to both direct selection on a locus and genetic hitchhiking. "Divergence hitchhiking" (DH) theory postulates that divergent selection on a locus reduces gene flow at physically linked sites, facilitating the formation of localized clusters of tightly linked, diverged loci. "Genome hitchhiking" (GH) theory emphasizes genome-wide effects of divergent selection. Past theoretical investigations of DH and GH focused on static snapshots of divergence. Here, we used simulations assessing a variety of strengths of selection, migration rates, population sizes, and mutation rates to investigate the relative importance of direct selection, GH, and DH in facilitating the dynamic buildup of genomic divergence as speciation proceeds through time. When divergently selected mutations were limiting, GH promoted divergence, but DH had little measurable effect. When populations were small and divergently selected mutations were common, DH enhanced the accumulation of weakly selected mutations, but this contributed little to reproductive isolation. In general, GH promoted reproductive isolation by reducing effective migration rates below that due to direct selection alone, and was important for genome-wide "congealing" or "coupling" of differentiation (F(ST)) across loci as speciation progressed.

Generalized movement strategies for constrained consumers: ignoring fitness can be adaptive.

Abstract Movements made by real organisms--such as movements involved in dispersal, migration, and habitat selection--are expected to occasionally be suboptimal because of realistic constraints imposed by incomplete information, perceptual limitations, and stochasticity. Previous theory considering such constraints has shown that movements appropriately conditioned on habitat or resource characteristics can balance out suboptimal components of movement and thereby lead organisms to ideal free distributions and fitness maxima, whereas movements conditioned on fitness differentials cannot. These findings suggest a somewhat paradoxical hypothesis: even if organisms have information about their fitness, movement strategies that maximize fitness may be conditioned on something other than fitness per se. We test this hypothesis by investigating the evolutionary stability of generalized, conditional movement strategies that vary in their use of information on fitness versus information on habitat characteristics. We show that when costs of sensory machinery are included, natural selection should favor movement strategies that completely ignore fitness information. Finally, we synthesize previous work by showing how several previous important theoretical results for adaptive movement strategies are united under our one general model.

Conditions for mutation-order speciation.

Two models for speciation via selection have been proposed. In the well-known model of 'ecological speciation', divergent natural selection between environments drives the evolution of reproductive isolation. In a second 'mutation-order' model, different, incompatible mutations (alleles) fix in different populations adapting to the same selective pressure. How to demonstrate mutation-order speciation has been unclear, although it has been argued that it can be ruled out when gene flow occurs because the same, most advantageous allele will fix in all populations. However, quantitative examination of the interaction of factors influencing the likelihood of mutation-order speciation is lacking. We used simulation models to study how gene flow, hybrid incompatibility, selective advantage, timing of origination of new mutations and an initial period of allopatric differentiation affect population divergence via the mutation-order process. We find that at least some population divergence can occur under a reasonably wide range of conditions, even with moderate gene flow. However, strong divergence (e.g. fixation of different alleles in different populations) requires very low gene flow, and is promoted when (i) incompatible mutations have similar fitness advantages, (ii) less fit mutations arise slightly earlier in evolutionary time than more fit alternatives, and (iii) allopatric divergence occurs prior to secondary contact.

Tracking prey or tracking the prey's resource? Mechanisms of movement and optimal habitat selection by predators.

We synthesize previous theory on ideal free habitat selection to develop a model of predator movement mechanisms, when both predators and prey are mobile. We consider a continuous environment with an arbitrary distribution of resources, randomly diffusing prey that consume the resources, and predators that consume the prey. Our model introduces a very general class of movement rules in which the overall direction of a predator's movement is determined by a variable combination of (i) random diffusion, (ii) movement in the direction of higher prey density, and/or (iii) movement in the direction of higher density of the prey's resource. With this model, we apply an adaptive dynamics approach to two main questions. First, can it be adaptive for predators to base their movement solely on the density of the prey's resource (which the predators do not consume)? Second, should predator movements be exclusively biased toward higher densities of prey/resources, or is there an optimal balance between random and biased movements? We find that, for some resource distributions, predators that track the gradient of the prey's resource have an advantage compared to predators that track the gradient of prey directly. Additionally, we show that matching (consumers distributed in proportion to resources), overmatching (consumers strongly aggregated in areas of high resource density), and undermatching (consumers distributed more uniformly than resources) distributions can all be explained by the same general habitat selection mechanism. Our results provide important groundwork for future investigations of predator-prey dynamics.