A landscape-scale framework to identify refugia from multiple stressors.

From a conservation perspective, quantifying potential refugial capacity has been predominantly focused on climate refugia, which is critical for maintaining the persistence of species and ecosystems. However, protection from other stressors, such as human-induced changes in fire and hydrology, that cause habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation is also necessary to ensure that conservation efforts focused on climate are not undermined by other threats. Thus, conceptual and methodological advances for quantifying potential refugia from multiple anthropogenic stressors are important to support conservation efforts. We devised a new conceptual approach, the domains of refugia, for assessing refugial capacity that identifies areas where exposure to multiple stressors is low. In our framework, patterns of environmental variability (e.g., increased frequency of warm summers), thresholds of resilience, and extent and intensity of stressors are used to identify areas of potential refugia from a suite of ongoing anthropogenic stressors (e.g., changes in fire regime). To demonstrate its utility, we applied the framework to a Southern California landscape. Sites with high refugial capacity (super-refugia sites) had on average 30% fewer extremely warm summers, 20% fewer fire events, 10% less exposure to altered river channels and riparian areas, and 50% fewer recreational trails than the surrounding landscape. Our results suggest that super-refugia sites (∼8200 km2 ) for some natural communities are underrepresented in the existing protected area network, a finding that can inform efforts to expand protected areas. Our case study highlights how considering exposure to multiple stressors can inform planning and practice to conserve biodiversity in a changing world.

Marco Conceptual a para Identificar Refugios de Múltiples Amenazas a Escala de Paisaje Resumen Desde la perspectiva de la conservación, la cuantificación de la capacidad potencial de refugio se ha enfocado principalmente en los refugios climáticos, los cuales son críticos para mantener la persistencia de las especies y los ecosistemas. Sin embargo, la protección ante otros factores estresantes, como los cambios inducidos por los humanos en los incendios y la hidrología, que causan la pérdida, degradación y fragmentación del hábitat, también son necesarios para asegurar que los esfuerzos de conservación enfocados en el clima no sean afectados por otras amenazas. Por lo tanto, los avances conceptuales y metodológicos para cuantificar los refugios potenciales ante múltiples factores estresantes causados por el humano son importantes para asegurar que los esfuerzos de conservación logren sus objetivos. Diseñamos una nueva estrategia conceptual, los dominios de los refugios, para evaluar la capacidad de refugio de un paisaje donde la exposición a múltiples factores estresantes es baja. En nuestro marco conceptual usamos los patrones de variabilidad ambiental (p. ej.: incremento en la frecuencia de veranos cálidos), los umbrales de resiliencia y la extensión e intensidad de los factores estresantes para identificar las áreas de refugios potenciales a partir de un conjunto de factores antropogénicos persistentes (p. ej.: cambios en el régimen de incendios). Para demostrar su utilidad, aplicamos el marco conceptual a un paisaje del sur de California. Los sitios con una alta capacidad de refugio (sitios de súper-refugios) tuvieron en promedio un 30% menos veranos extremadamente cálidos, 20% menos eventos de incendios y 50% menos senderos recreativos que el paisaje circundante. Nuestros resultados sugieren que los sitios de súper-refugios (∼ 8,200 km2 ) para algunas comunidades naturales están subrepresentados en la red existente de áreas protegidas, un resultado que puede orientar los esfuerzos por expandir las áreas protegidas. Nuestro estudio de caso resalta que considerar la exposición a múltiples amenazas puede guiar la planificación y la práctica de la conservación de la biodiversidad en un mundo cambiante.

Relationships of climate, human activity, and fire history to spatiotemporal variation in annual fire probability across California.

In the face of recent wildfires across the Western United States, it is essential that we understand both the dynamics that drive the spatial distribution of wildfire, and the major obstacles to modeling the probability of wildfire over space and time. However, it is well documented that the precise relationships of local vegetation, climate, and ignitions, and how they influence fire dynamics, may vary over space and among local climate, vegetation, and land use regimes. This raises questions not only as to the nature of the potentially nonlinear relationships between local conditions and the fire, but also the possibility that the scale at which such models are developed may be critical to their predictive power and to the apparent relationship of local conditions to wildfire. In this study we demonstrate that both local climate-through limitations posed by fuel dryness (CWD) and availability (AET)-and human activity-through housing density, roads, electrical infrastructure, and agriculture, play important roles in determining the annual probabilities of fire throughout California. We also document the importance of previous burn events as potential barriers to fire in some environments, until enough time has passed for vegetation to regenerate sufficiently to sustain subsequent wildfires. We also demonstrate that long-term and short-term climate variations exhibit different effects on annual fire probability, with short-term climate variations primarily impacting fire probability during periods of extreme climate anomaly. Further, we show that, when using nonlinear modeling techniques, broad-scale fire probability models can outperform localized models at predicting annual fire probability. Finally, this study represents a powerful tool for mapping local fire probability across the state of California under a variety of historical climate regimes, which is essential to avoided emissions modeling, carbon accounting, and hazard severity mapping for the application of fire-resistant building codes across the state of California.

Food and beverage consumption and food addiction among women in the Nurses' Health Studies.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Previous studies have not addressed a fundamental component of a food addiction disorder: the compulsive relationship between eating and potentially positively reinforcing foods. We aimed to evaluate the association between food consumption and food addiction. METHODS: We conducted cross-sectional analyses merging data from the Nurses' Health Study (n = 58,625) and Nurses' Health Study II (n = 65,063), two prospective cohort studies of female nurses in the United States. Diet was assessed in 2006-2007 using a food frequency questionnaire, and food addiction was assessed in 2008-2009 using the Modified Yale Food Addiction Scale. RESULTS: The prevalence of food addiction was 5.4%. The odds of food addiction were strongest among nurses consuming 5+ servings/week (compared with <1 serving/month) of hamburgers (multivariable odds ratio (MVOR) 4.08; 95% CI, 2.66-6.25), French fries (MVOR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.59-3.51) and pizza (MVOR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.67-3.69). Consumption of red/processed meat, low/no fat snacks/desserts, and low calorie beverages was positively associated with food addiction, while consumption of refined grains, sugar-sweetened beverages and fruits, vegetables, and legumes was inversely associated with food addiction. CONCLUSIONS: This epidemiologic study was the largest to examine food consumption and food addiction. Food addiction was positively associated with consumption of many hypothesized positively reinforcing foods that include a combination of carbohydrates and fats such as snacks, "fast foods," and candy bars. However, it was inversely or not associated with certain sweet foods, refined grains, and sugar-sweetened beverages, which is consistent with literature suggesting that carbohydrates (without other ingredients) are less associated with food addiction. Longitudinal analyses will help untangle the temporal order between food consumption and food addiction, as some relationships in our analyses were difficult to interpret due to the cross-sectional design.

Habitual intake of anthocyanins and flavanones and risk of cardiovascular disease in men.

BACKGROUND: Although increased fruit intake reduces cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, which fruits are most beneficial and what key constituents are responsible are unclear. Habitual intakes of flavonoids, specifically anthocyanins and flavanones, in which >90% of habitual intake is derived from fruit, are associated with decreased CVD risk in women, but associations in men are largely unknown. OBJECTIVE: We examined the relation between habitual anthocyanin and flavanone intake and coronary artery disease and stroke in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study. DESIGN: We followed 43,880 healthy men who had no prior diagnosed CVD or cancer. Flavonoid intake was calculated with the use of validated food-frequency questionnaires. RESULTS: During 24 y of follow-up, 4046 myocardial infarction (MI) and 1572 stroke cases were confirmed by medical records. Although higher anthocyanin intake was not associated with total or fatal MI risk, after multivariate adjustment an inverse association with nonfatal MI was observed (HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.75, 1.00; P = 0.04; P-trend = 0.098); this association was stronger in normotensive participants (HR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.69, 0.96; P-interaction = 0.03). Anthocyanin intake was not associated with stroke risk. Although flavanone intake was not associated with MI or total stroke risk, higher intake was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.62, 0.97; P = 0.03, P-trend = 0.059), with the greatest magnitude in participants aged ≥65 y (P-interaction = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Higher intakes of fruit-based flavonoids were associated with a lower risk of nonfatal MI and ischemic stroke in men. Mechanistic studies and clinical trials are needed to unravel the differential benefits of anthocyanin- and flavanone-rich foods on cardiovascular health.

Effects of topoclimatic complexity on the composition of woody plant communities.

Topography can create substantial environmental variation at fine spatial scales. Shaped by slope, aspect, hill-position and elevation, topoclimate heterogeneity may increase ecological diversity, and act as a spatial buffer for vegetation responding to climate change. Strong links have been observed between climate heterogeneity and species diversity at broader scales, but the importance of topoclimate for woody vegetation across small spatial extents merits closer examination. We established woody vegetation monitoring plots in mixed evergreen-deciduous woodlands that spanned topoclimate gradients of a topographically heterogeneous landscape in northern California. We investigated the association between the structure of adult and regenerating size classes of woody vegetation and multidimensional topoclimate at a fine scale. We found a significant effect of topoclimate on both single-species distributions and community composition. Effects of topoclimate were evident in the regenerating size class for all dominant species (four Quercus spp., Umbellularia californica and Pseudotsuga menziesii) but only in two dominant species (Quercus agrifolia and Quercus garryana) for the adult size class. Adult abundance was correlated with water balance parameters (e.g. climatic water deficit) and recruit abundance was correlated with an interaction between the topoclimate parameters and conspecific adult abundance (likely reflecting local seed dispersal). However, in all cases, the topoclimate signal was weak. The magnitude of environmental variation across our study site may be small relative to the tolerance of long-lived woody species. Dispersal limitations, management practices and patchy disturbance regimes also may interact with topoclimate, weakening its influence on woody vegetation distributions. Our study supports the biological relevance of multidimensional topoclimate for mixed woodland communities, but highlights that this relationship might be mediated by interacting factors at local scales.

Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California.

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

A genome-wide investigation of food addiction.

OBJECTIVE: Evidence of parallels between drug addiction and eating behavior continues to accumulate. Genetic studies of addictive substances have yielded a number of susceptibility loci that point to common higher order genetic pathways underlying addiction. It was hypothesized that a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of food addiction would yield significant enrichment in genes and pathways linked to addiction. METHODS: A GWAS of food addiction, determined by the modified Yale Food Addiction Scale (mYFAS), was conducted among 9,314 women of European ancestry, and results for enrichment of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (n = 44), genes (n = 238), and pathways (n = 11) implicated in drug addiction were examined. RESULTS: Two loci met GW-significance (P < 2.5 × 10(-8) ) mapping to 17q21.31 and 11q13.4 that harbor genes with no obvious roles in eating behavior. GW results were significantly enriched for gene members of the MAPK signaling pathway (P = 0.02). No candidate SNP or gene for drug addiction was significantly associated with food addiction after correction for multiple testing. CONCLUSIONS: In the first GWAS of mYFAS, suggestive loci worthy of further follow-up were identified, but limited support was provided for shared genetic underpinnings of food addiction and drug addiction. The latter might be due to limited study power and knowledge of the genetics of drug addiction.

Indoor tanning bed use and risk of food addiction based on the modified Yale Food Addiction Scale.

The popularity of indoor tanning may be partly attributed to the addictive characteristics of tanning for some individuals. We aimed to determine the association between frequent indoor tanning, which we view as a surrogate for tanning addiction, and food addiction. A total of 67,910 women were included from the Nurses' Health Study II. In 2005, we collected information on indoor tanning during high school/college and age 25-35 years, and calculated the average use of indoor tanning during these periods. Food addiction was defined as ≥3 clinically significant symptoms plus clinically significant impairment or distress, assessed in 2009 using a modified version of the Yale Food Addiction Scale. Totally 23.3% (15,822) of the participants reported indoor tanning at high school/college or age 25-35 years. A total of 5,557 (8.2%) women met the criteria for food addiction. We observed a dose-response relationship between frequency of indoor tanning and the likelihood of food addiction (Ptrend<0.0001), independent of depression, BMI, and other confounders. Compared with never indoor tanners, the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of food addiction was 1.07 (0.99-1.17) for average indoor tanning 1-2 times/year, 1.25 (1.09-1.43) for 3-5 times/year, 1.34 (1.14-1.56) for 6-11 times/year, 1.61 (1.35-1.91) for 12-23 times/year, and 2.98 (1.95-4.57) for 24 or more times/year. Frequent indoor tanning before or at early adulthood is associated with prevalence of food addiction at middle age. Our data support the addictive property of frequent indoor tanning, which may guide intervention strategies to curb indoor tanning and prevent skin cancer.

A Framework for Effective Use of Hydroclimate Models in Climate-Change Adaptation Planning for Managed Habitats with Limited Hydrologic Response Data.

Climate-change adaptation planning for managed wetlands is challenging under uncertain futures when the impact of historic climate variability on wetland response is unquantified. We assessed vulnerability of Modoc National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) through use of the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) landscape hydrology model, and six global climate models, representing projected wetter and drier conditions. We further developed a conceptual model that provides greater value for water managers by incorporating the BCM outputs into a conceptual framework that links modeled parameters to refuge management outcomes. This framework was used to identify landscape hydrology parameters that reflect refuge sensitivity to changes in (1) climatic water deficit (CWD) and recharge, and (2) the magnitude, timing, and frequency of water inputs. BCM outputs were developed for 1981-2100 to assess changes and forecast the probability of experiencing wet and dry water year types that have historically resulted in challenging conditions for refuge habitat management. We used a Yule's Q skill score to estimate the probability of modeled discharge that best represents historic water year types. CWD increased in all models across 72.3-100 % of the water supply basin by 2100. Earlier timing in discharge, greater cool season discharge, and lesser irrigation season water supply were predicted by most models. Under the worst-case scenario, moderately dry years increased from 10-20 to 40-60 % by 2100. MNWR could adapt by storing additional water during the cool season for later use and prioritizing irrigation of habitats during dry years.

The Risk of Coronary Heart Disease Associated With Glycosylated Hemoglobin of 6.5% or Greater Is Pronounced in the Haptoglobin 2-2 Genotype.

BACKGROUND: Research targeting glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) to <6.5% to prevent coronary heart disease (CHD) events has conflicting results. We previously observed the haptoglobin (Hp) Hp2-2 genotype is associated with a ∼10-fold increased CHD risk among individuals with HbA1c ≥6.5%, and thus might be useful in identifying those at high risk of CHD who would benefit from maintaining HbA1c <6.5%. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to model whether HbA1c ≥ 6.5% in the Hp2-2 genotype is associated with CHD in a prospective case-control study nested within the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (HPFS). METHODS: HbA1c concentration and Hp genotype were determined for 695 incident cases of CHD from 1994 to 2010 and matched control participants. Logistic regression models calculated relative risk (RR) and 95% CI, for the first and second halves of follow-up, adjusting for confounding variables. A dataset from the Nurses' Health Study served as a replication cohort. RESULTS: The prevalence of the Hp2-2 genotype in HPFS was 39%. Compared with HbA1c <6.5%, the RR of CHD for HbA1c ≥6.5% for the Hp2-2 genotype over full follow-up was 3.07 (95% CI: 1.37 to 6.86) to 3.88 (95% CI: 1.31 to 11.52) during the first half of follow-up and 2.16 (95% CI: 0.61 to 7.61) in the second half. The corresponding RRs for the Hp1-1 + Hp2-1 genotypes were: full follow-up, 2.19 (95% CI: 1.14 to 4.24); first half, 1.60 (95% CI: 0.73 to 3.53); and second half, 4.72 (95% CI: 1.26 to 17.65). CONCLUSIONS: In 2 independent cohorts, the risk of CHD associated with HbA1c ≥6.5% is pronounced in the Hp2-2 genotype, particularly in early cases. The Hp2-2 genotype may identify individuals at greatest CHD risk from hyperglycemia.

Perspectives in Implementing a Pragmatic Pediatric Primary Care-Based Intervention Trial.

The 2013 U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) concluded that behavioral interventions are effective in reducing initiation of smoking in youth, recommending primary care clinicians provide education or brief counseling to prevent initiation, and that there are promising trends toward behavioral interventions improving cessation in this population. Our primary care-based intervention RCT conducted between 2000 and 2004, Air It Out, informed these USPSTF recommendations. Our trial was designed to determine whether a pediatric primary care practice-based smoking prevention and cessation intervention would be effective in increasing abstinence rates among adolescents under usual clinic conditions, to inform clinical practice. Therefore, the trial was designed to be largely a pragmatic trial. In this paper, we describe where each of the Air It Out study components falls along the pragmatic-explanatory continuum regarding participant eligibility criteria, intervention and comparison condition design, follow-up and outcomes, compliance and adherence assessments, and analysis. Such an assessment assists researchers by providing a framework to guide decisions regarding study design and implementation. We then share a few principles and lessons learned in developing and implementing the primary care-based intervention trial, focusing on study setting selection, engaging providers who will be delivering the intervention and the target population who will be receiving it in designing the trial and interventions to be tested, and the need to carefully plan recruitment and retention procedures. The hope is to increase the number of well-designed studies that can be included in the evidence reviews to guide future USPSTF recommendation statements.

A Geographic Mosaic of Climate Change Impacts on Terrestrial Vegetation: Which Areas Are Most at Risk?

Changes in climate projected for the 21st century are expected to trigger widespread and pervasive biotic impacts. Forecasting these changes and their implications for ecosystem services is a major research goal. Much of the research on biotic responses to climate change has focused on either projected shifts in individual species distributions or broad-scale changes in biome distributions. Here, we introduce a novel application of multinomial logistic regression as a powerful approach to model vegetation distributions and potential responses to 21st century climate change. We modeled the distribution of 22 major vegetation types, most defined by a single dominant woody species, across the San Francisco Bay Area. Predictor variables included climate and topographic variables. The novel aspect of our model is the output: a vector of relative probabilities for each vegetation type in each location within the study domain. The model was then projected for 54 future climate scenarios, spanning a representative range of temperature and precipitation projections from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles. We found that sensitivity of vegetation to climate change is highly heterogeneous across the region. Surprisingly, sensitivity to climate change is higher closer to the coast, on lower insolation, north-facing slopes and in areas of higher precipitation. While such sites may provide refugia for mesic and cool-adapted vegetation in the face of a warming climate, the model suggests they will still be highly dynamic and relatively sensitive to climate-driven vegetation transitions. The greater sensitivity of moist and low insolation sites is an unexpected outcome that challenges views on the location and stability of climate refugia. Projections provide a foundation for conservation planning and land management, and highlight the need for a greater understanding of the mechanisms and time scales of potential climate-driven vegetation transitions.

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium and the risk of stroke among men.

BACKGROUND: Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium have been inversely associated with the incidence of hypertension, a known risk factor for stroke. However, only a few studies have examined intakes of these cations in relation to risk of stroke. AIM: The aim of this study was to investigate whether high intake of magnesium, potassium, and calcium is associated with reduced stroke risk among men. METHODS: We prospectively examined the associations between intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium from diet and supplements, and the risk of incident stroke among 42 669 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, aged 40 to 75 years and free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline in 1986. We calculated the hazard ratio of total, ischemic, and haemorrhagic strokes by quintiles of each cation intake, and of a combined dietary score of all three cations, using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: During 24 years of follow-up, 1547 total stroke events were documented. In multivariate analyses, the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile were 0·87 (95% confidence interval, 0·74-1·02; P, trend = 0·04) for dietary magnesium, 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·76-1·05; P, trend = 0·10) for dietary potassium, and 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-1·04; P, trend = 0·25) for dietary calcium intake. The relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·74 (95% confidence interval, 0·59-0·93; P, trend = 0·003) for supplemental magnesium, 0·66 (95% confidence interval, 0·50-0·86; P, trend = 0·002) for supplemental potassium, and 1·01 (95% confidence interval, 0·84-1·20; P, trend = 0·83) for supplemental calcium intake. For total intake (dietary and supplemental), the relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·83 (95% confidence interval, 0·70-0·99; P, trend = 0·04) for magnesium, 0·88 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-4; P, trend = 6) for potassium, and 3 (95% confidence interval, 79-09; P, trend = 84) for calcium. Men in the highest quintile for a combined dietary score of all three cations had a multivariate relative risk of 0·79 (95% confidence interval, 0·67-0·92; P, trend = 0·008) for total stroke, compared with those in the lowest. CONCLUSIONS: A diet rich in magnesium, potassium, and calcium may contribute to reduced risk of stroke among men. Because of significant collinearity, the independent contribution of each cation is difficult to define.

Impacts of sea level rise and climate change on coastal plant species in the central California coast.

Local increases in sea level caused by global climate change pose a significant threat to the persistence of many coastal plant species through exacerbating inundation, flooding, and erosion. In addition to sea level rise (SLR), climate changes in the form of air temperature and precipitation regimes will also alter habitats of coastal plant species. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats through species distribution models (SDMs), none have incorporated the threat of exposure to SLR. We developed a model that quantified the effect of both SLR and climate change on habitat for 88 rare coastal plant species in San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, and Ventura Counties, California, USA (an area of 23,948 km(2)). Our SLR model projects that by the year 2100, 60 of the 88 species will be threatened by SLR. We found that the probability of being threatened by SLR strongly correlates with a species' area, elevation, and distance from the coast, and that 10 species could lose their entire current habitat in the study region. We modeled the habitat suitability of these 10 species under future climate using a species distribution model (SDM). Our SDM projects that 4 of the 10 species will lose all suitable current habitats in the region as a result of climate change. While SLR accounts for up to 9.2 km(2) loss in habitat, climate change accounts for habitat suitability changes ranging from a loss of 1,439 km(2) for one species to a gain of 9,795 km(2) for another species. For three species, SLR is projected to reduce future suitable area by as much as 28% of total area. This suggests that while SLR poses a higher risk, climate changes in precipitation and air temperature represents a lesser known but potentially larger risk and a small cumulative effect from both.

Association between dietary whole grain intake and risk of mortality: two large prospective studies in US men and women.

IMPORTANCE: Higher intake of whole grains has been associated with a lower risk of major chronic diseases, such as type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease (CVD), although limited prospective evidence exists regarding whole grains' association with mortality. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between dietary whole grain consumption and risk of mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We investigated 74 341 women from the Nurses' Health Study (1984-2010) and 43 744 men from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (1986-2010), 2 large prospective cohort studies. All patients were free of CVD and cancer at baseline. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Hazard ratios (HRs) for total mortality and mortality due to CVD and cancer according to quintiles of whole grain consumption, which was updated every 2 or 4 years by using validated food frequency questionnaires. RESULTS: We documented 26 920 deaths during 2 727 006 person-years of follow-up. After multivariate adjustment for potential confounders, including age, smoking, body mass index, physical activity, and modified Alternate Healthy Eating Index score, higher whole grain intake was associated with lower total and CVD mortality but not cancer mortality: the pooled HRs for quintiles 1 through 5, respectively, of whole grain intake were 1 (reference), 0.99 (95% CI, 0.95-1.02), 0.98 (95% CI, 0.95-1.02), 0.97 (95% CI, 0.93-1.01), and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88-0.95) for total mortality (P fortrend < .001); 1 (reference), 0.94 (95% CI, 0.88-1.01), 0.94 (95% CI, 0.87-1.01), 0.87 (95% CI, 0.80-0.94), and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.78-0.92) for CVD mortality (P fortrend < .001); and 1 (reference), 1.02 (95% CI, 0.96-1.08), 1.05 (95% CI, 0.99-1.12), 1.04 (95% CI, 0.98-1.11), and 0.97 (95% CI, 0.91-1.04) for cancer mortality (P fortrend = .43). We further estimated that every serving (28 g/d) of whole grain consumption was associated with a 5% (95% CI, 2%-7%) lower total morality or a 9% (95% CI, 4%-13%) lower CVD mortality, whereas the same intake level was nonsignificantly associated with lower cancer mortality (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.94-1.02). Similar inverse associations were observed between bran intake and CVD mortality, with a pooled HR of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.73-0.87; P fortrend < .001), whereas germ intake was not associated with CVD mortality after adjustment for bran intake. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These data indicate that higher whole grain consumption is associated with lower total and CVD mortality in US men and women, independent of other dietary and lifestyle factors. These results are in line with recommendations that promote increased whole grain consumption to facilitate disease prevention.

Twentieth-century shifts in forest structure in California: Denser forests, smaller trees, and increased dominance of oaks.

We document changes in forest structure between historical (1930s) and contemporary (2000s) surveys of California vegetation through comparisons of tree abundance and size across the state and within several ecoregions. Across California, tree density in forested regions increased by 30% between the two time periods, whereas forest biomass in the same regions declined, as indicated by a 19% reduction in basal area. These changes reflect a demographic shift in forest structure: larger trees (>61 cm diameter at breast height) have declined, whereas smaller trees (<30 cm) have increased. Large tree declines were found in all surveyed regions of California, whereas small tree increases were found in every region except the south and central coast. Large tree declines were more severe in areas experiencing greater increases in climatic water deficit since the 1930s, based on a hydrologic model of water balance for historical climates through the 20th century. Forest composition in California in the last century has also shifted toward increased dominance by oaks relative to pines, a pattern consistent with warming and increased water stress, and also with paleohistoric shifts in vegetation in California over the last 150,000 y.

Incorporating cold-air pooling into downscaled climate models increases potential refugia for snow-dependent species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, CA.

We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m) than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine (Gulo gulo) as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist.

Low carbohydrate diet from plant or animal sources and mortality among myocardial infarction survivors.

BACKGROUND: The healthiest dietary pattern for myocardial infarction (MI) survivors is not known. Specific long-term benefits of a low-carbohydrate diet (LCD) are unknown, whether from animal or vegetable sources. There is a need to examine the associations between post-MI adherence to an LCD and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 2258 women from the Nurses' Health Study and 1840 men from the Health Professional Follow-Up Study who had survived a first MI during follow-up and provided a pre-MI and at least 1 post-MI food frequency questionnaire. Adherence to an LCD high in animal sources of protein and fat was associated with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratios of 1.33 [95% CI: 1.06 to 1.65] for all-cause mortality and 1.51 [95% CI: 1.09 to 2.07] for cardiovascular mortality comparing extreme quintiles). An increase in adherence to an animal-based LCD prospectively assessed from the pre- to post-MI period was associated with higher all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratios of 1.30 [95% CI: 1.03 to 1.65] for all-cause mortality and 1.53 [95% CI: 1.10 to 2.13] for cardiovascular mortality comparing extreme quintiles). An increase in adherence to a plant-based LCD was not associated with lower all-cause or cardiovascular mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Greater adherence to an LCD high in animal sources of fat and protein was associated with higher all-cause and cardiovascular mortality post-MI. We did not find a health benefit from greater adherence to an LCD overall after MI.