Forecasting the effect of HIV-targeted interventions on the age distribution of people living with HIV: a case study from Kenya.

OBJECTIVES: Expansion of ART and increases to life expectancy have led to aging among people living with HIV (PWH). DESIGN: Kenyan decisionmakers need accurate forecasts of the age distribution of PWH to inform future policies. METHODS: We developed a model of HIV in Kenya, calibrated to historical estimates of HIV epidemiology. We forecasted changes in population size and age distribution of new HIV infections and PWH under the status quo and under scale-up of HIV services. RESULTS: Without scale-up, new HIV infections were forecasted to fall from 34,000 [28,000-41,000] in 2025 to 29,000 [15,000-57,000] in 2040; the percent of new infections occurring among persons over 30 increased from 33% [20-50%] to 40% [24-62%]. The median age of PWH increased from 39 years [38-40] in 2025 to 43 years [39-46] in 2040, and the percent of PWH over age 50 increased from 26% [23-29%] to 34% [26-43%]. Under the full intervention scenario, new infections were forecasted to fall to 6,000 [3,000-12,000] in 2040. The percent of new infections occurring in people over age 30 increased to 52% [34-71%] in 2040, and there was an additional shift in the age structure of PWH (forecasted median age of 46 [43-48] and 40% [33-47%] over age 50). CONCLUSIONS: PWH in Kenya are forecasted to age over the next 15 years; improvements to the HIV care continuum are expected to contribute to the growing proportion of older PWH.

The association of changes in depression severity after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and viral nonsuppression among people with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: This study sought to characterize changes in depressive symptom severity during the COVID-19 pandemic and the association of these changes with HIV viral nonsuppression among people with HIV (PWH). DESIGN: A clinical cohort study. METHODS: We included PWH in the Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort who completed the Patient Health Questionnaire 8 (PHQ-8) prepandemic (1 March 2018 to 28 February 2020) and during the COVID-era (1 September 2020 to 28 February 2022). PWH were classified according to depression severity categories prepandemic and during the COVID-era as: consistently depressed (prepandemic PHQ-8 >4 and no change in severity category); consistently nondepressed (prepandemic PHQ-8 ≤4 and no change in severity category); worsened (changed to a higher severity category) and; improved (change to a lower severity category). The association between changes in depressive symptom severity and viral nonsuppression (HIV RNA >200 copies/ml on the earliest viral load measured 7 days before to 12 months after the COVID-era PHQ-8 survey) was assessed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 793 PWH, mean age was 56 (SD 10) years, 60% were male individuals and 88% were Black. After the onset of the pandemic, 60% were consistently nondepressed, 9% were consistently depressed, 15% worsened and 16% improved. PWH who worsened had 2.47 times the odds of viral nonsuppression (95% CI: 1.09-5.55) compared with the nondepressed group. Associations among other groups were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Worsening depression during the COVID-era was associated with HIV viral nonsuppression. Strategies to monitor and address depression among PWH may contribute to reduced risk of viral nonsuppression.

Hepatitis C Treatment in People With HIV: Potential to Eliminate Disease and Disparity.

Access to direct acting antivirals (DAAs) may be associated with reductions in hepatitis C virus (HCV) viremia prevalence among people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH). Among 3755 PWH, estimated HCV viremia prevalence decreased by 94.0% from 36% (95% confidence interval [CI], 27%-46%) in 2009 (pre-DAA era) to 2% (95% CI, 0%-4%) in 2021 (DAA era). Male sex, black race, and older age were associated with HCV viremia in 2009 but not in 2021. Injection drug use remained associated with HCV viremia in 2009 and 2021. Targeted interventions are needed to meet the HCV care needs of PWH who use drugs.

Measuring time in buprenorphine treatment stages among people with HIV and opioid use disorder by retention definition and its association with cocaine and hazardous alcohol use.

BACKGROUND: We use a novel, longitudinal approach to describe average time spent in opioid use disorder (OUD) cascade of care stages for people with HIV (PWH) and with OUD, incorporating four definitions of treatment retention. Using this approach, we describe the impact of cocaine or hazardous alcohol use on time spent retained on buprenorphine. METHODS: We followed PWH with OUD enrolled in the Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort from their first buprenorphine treatment episode between 2013 and 2020. We estimated 4-year restricted mean time spent on buprenorphine below buprenorphine retention threshold, on buprenorphine above retention threshold, off buprenorphine and in HIV care, loss to follow-up, and death. Retention definitions were based on retention threshold (180 vs 90 days) and allowable treatment gap (7 vs 30 days). Differences in 2-year restricted mean time spent retained on buprenorphine were estimated for patients with and without cocaine or hazardous alcohol use. RESULTS: The study sample (N = 179) was 63% male, 82% non-Hispanic Black, and mean age was 53 (SD 8) years. Patients spent on average 13.9 months (95% CI 11.4, 16.4) on buprenorphine over 4 years. There were differences in time spent retained on buprenorphine based on the retention definition, ranging from 6.5 months (95% CI 4.6, 8.5) to 9.6 months (95% CI 7.4, 11.8). Patients with cocaine use spent fewer months retained on buprenorphine. There were no differences for patients with hazardous alcohol use. CONCLUSIONS: PWH with OUD spend relatively little time receiving buprenorphine in their HIV primary care clinic. Concurrent cocaine use at buprenorphine initiation negatively impact time on buprenorphine.

Impact of subgroup-specific heterogeneities and dynamic changes in mortality rates on forecasted population size, deaths, and age distribution of persons receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States: a computer simulation study.

PURPOSE: Model-based forecasts of population size, deaths, and age distribution of people with HIV (PWH) are helpful for public health and clinical services planning but are influenced by subgroup-specific heterogeneities and changes in mortality rates. METHODS: Using an agent-based simulation of PWH in the United States, we examined the impact of distinct approaches to parametrizing mortality rates on forecasted epidemiology of PWH on antiretroviral treatment (ART). We first estimated mortality rates among (1) all PWH, (2) sex-specific, (3) sex-and-race/ethnicity-specific, and (4) sex-race/ethnicity-and-HIV-acquisition-risk-specific subgroups. We then assessed each scenario by (1) allowing unrestricted reductions in age-specific mortality rates over time and (2) restricting the mortality rates among PWH to subgroup-specific mortality thresholds from the general population. RESULTS: Among the eight scenarios examined, those lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates forecasted the lowest number of deaths among all PWH and 9 of the 15 subgroups through 2030. The forecasted overall number and age distribution of people with a history of injection drug use were sensitive to inclusion of subgroup-specific mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS: Our results underscore the potential risk of underestimating future deaths by models lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities in mortality rates, and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates.

Alcohol use and the longitudinal HIV care continuum for people with HIV who enrolled in care between 2011 and 2019.

PURPOSE: We described the impact of alcohol use on longitudinal engagement in HIV care including loss to follow-up, durability of viral suppression, and death. METHODS: We followed a cohort of 1781 people with HIV from enrolled in care at one of seven US clinics, 2011-2019 through 102 months. We used a multistate, time-varying Markov process and restricted mean time to summarize engagement in HIV care over follow-up according to baseline self-reported alcohol use (none, moderate, or unhealthy). RESULTS: Our sample (86% male, 54% White) had median age of 35 years. Over 102 months, people with no, moderate, and unhealthy alcohol use averaged 62.3, 61.1, and 59.5 months virally suppressed, respectively. People who reported unhealthy or moderate alcohol use spent 5.1 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.8, 9.3) and 7.6 (95%CI: 3.1, 11.7) more months lost to care than nondrinkers. Compared to no use, unhealthy alcohol use was associated with 3.4 (95%CI: -5.6, -1.6) fewer months in care, not virally suppressed. There were no statistically significant differences after adjustment for demographic and clinical characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate or unhealthy drinking at enrollment in HIV care was associated with poor retention in care. Alcohol use was not associated with time spent virally suppressed.

Joint effects of substance use disorders and recent substance use on HIV viral non-suppression among people engaged in HIV care in an urban clinic, 2014-2019.

AIMS: To estimate the joint effects of substance use disorder (SUD) and recent substance use on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) non-suppression. DESIGN: Retrospective clinical cohort study with repeated observations within individuals. SETTING: Baltimore, Maryland, United States. PARTICIPANTS: 1881 patients contributed 10 794 observations. MEASUREMENTS: The primary independent variable was the combination of history of SUD and recent substance use. History of SUD was defined as any prior International Classification of Diseases 9/10 code for cocaine or opioid disorder. Recent substance use was defined as the self-report of cocaine or non-prescribed opioid use on the National Institute of Drug Abuse-modified Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test or clinician-documented cocaine or opioid use abstracted from the medical record. The outcome was viral non-suppression, defined as HIV RNA >200 copies/mL on the first viral load measurement within 1 year subsequent to each observation of substance use. We adjusted for birth sex, Black race, age, HIV acquisition risk factors, years in care and CD4 cell count. In secondary analyses, we also adjusted for depressive, anxiety and panic symptoms, cannabis use and cannabis use disorder. FINDINGS: On their first observation, 31% of patients had a history of an SUD and 18% had recent substance use. Relative to no history of SUD and no recent substance use, the 1-year fully adjusted risk difference (RD) for viral non-suppression associated with cocaine and opioid use disorder and recent substance use was 7.7% (95% CI = 5.3%-10.0%), the RD was 5.5% (95% CI = 1.2%-9.7%) for history of cocaine use disorder without recent substance use, and the RD was 4.6% (95% CI = 2.7%-6.5%) for recent substance use without a SUD. CONCLUSIONS: Substance use and substance use disorders appear to be highly prevalent among, and independently associated with, viral non-suppression among people with HIV.

Telemedicine Use Among People With HIV in 2021: The Hybrid-Care Environment.

BACKGROUND: Telemedicine use for the care of people with HIV (PWH) significantly expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic. During 2021, vaccine uptake increased and patients were encouraged to resume in-person care, resulting in a mixture of in-person and telemedicine visits. We studied how different patient populations used telemedicine in this hybrid-care environment. METHODS: Using observational data from patients enrolled in the Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort, we analyzed all in-person and telemedicine HIV primary care visits completed in an HIV clinic from January 1st, 2021, to December 31st, 2021. We used log-binomial regression to investigate the association between patient characteristics and the probability of completing a telemedicine versus in-person visit and the probability of completing a video versus telephone visit. RESULTS: A total of 5518 visits were completed by 1884 patients; 4282 (77.6%) visits were in-person, 800 (14.5%) by phone, and 436 (7.9%) by video. The relative risk (RR) of completing telemedicine vs. in-person visits was 0.65 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.47, 0.91) for patients age 65 years or older vs. age 20-39 years; 0.84 (95% CI: 0.72, 0.98) for male patients vs. female patients; 0.81 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.99) for Black vs. White patients; 0.62 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.79) for patients in the highest vs. lowest quartile of Area Deprivation Index; and 1.52 (95% CI: 1.26, 1.84) for patients >15 miles vs. <5 miles from clinic. CONCLUSIONS: In the second year of the pandemic, overall in-person care was used more than telemedicine and significant differences persist across subgroups in telemedicine uptake.

Alcohol consumption upon direct-acting antiviral therapy for hepatitis C among persons with human immunodeficiency virus in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Direct-acting antivirals (DAA) are highly effective against hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among persons with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH). However, alcohol use post-DAA treatment poses a continued threat to the liver. Whether the focus on liver health alone during HCV treatment can impact alcohol consumption is unclear. Therefore, we examined the change in alcohol use among HCV-coinfected PWH who received DAA therapy by non-addiction medical providers. METHODS: In our longitudinal clinical cohort study, we identified HCV-coinfected PWH who received interferon-free DAA therapy between January 2014 and June 2019 in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems. The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) was the alcohol screening instrument. We used mixed-effects logistic regression models to estimate the longitudinal change in alcohol use upon DAA therapy. RESULTS: Among 738 HCV-coinfected PWH, 339 (46 %) reported any alcohol use at the end of HCV treatment, including 113 (15 %) with high-risk use (i.e., AUDIT-C ≥3 for women, ≥4 for men). Concurrently, 280 (38 %) PWH noted active drug use, and 357 (48 %) were currently smoking. We observed no changes in the odds of any alcohol or high-risk alcohol use over time with DAA therapy. Findings were similar in the PWH subgroup with a history of alcohol use before DAA treatment. CONCLUSIONS: For PWH with HCV, alcohol use did not change following interferon-free DAA treatment by non-addiction medical providers. Thus, clinicians should consider integrating targeted alcohol use interventions into HCV care to motivate reduced alcohol consumption and safeguard future liver health.

Exploring definitions of retention in care for people living with HIV in the United States in the modern treatment era.

OBJECTIVE: To describe retention in HIV care based on various definitions of retention in the modern treatment era. DESIGN: A cohort study of people enrolled in care at seven mostly urban HIV clinics across the United States, 2010-2018. METHODS: We estimated retention based on missed visits, kept visits, kept encounters (clinical visits, CD4 counts, and viral loads), and HIV labs. We contrasted risk factors for retention by different definitions and estimated odds ratios for of viral suppression and hazard ratios for mortality in 2 years immediately following the year in which retention was defined (the study year). RESULTS: Across 108 171 person-years (N = 21 481 people), in 71% of years people kept ≥75% of scheduled visits; in 78%, people kept ≥2 visits >90 days apart; in 74%, people had ≥2 HIV labs >90 days apart; and in 47%, people had no gaps >6 months in clinic visits. Missing >25% of scheduled visits despite attending ≥2 visits >90 days apart was associated with nonwhite non-Hispanic race/ethnicity, history of injection drug use, and prior AIDS diagnosis. In contrast, attending ≥75% of scheduled visits while not attending ≥2 visits >90 days apart was associated with male sex, white race, no injection drug use history, and no prior AIDS diagnosis. Subsequent viral nonsuppression was more strongly associated with missed- than kept-visit measures of retention; 2-year mortality was only associated with failure to be retained by missed-visit measures. DISCUSSION: Missed and kept-visit definitions of retention capture different constructs. Missed-visit measures are more strongly associated with poor HIV outcomes.

Time Between Viral Loads for People With HIV During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, patients experienced significant care disruptions, including laboratory monitoring. We investigated changes in the time between viral load (VL) checks for people with HIV (PWH) associated with the pandemic. SETTING AND METHODS: This was an observational analysis of VLs of PWH in routine care at a large subspecialty clinic. At pandemic onset, the clinic temporarily closed its onsite laboratory. The exposure was time period (time varying): prepandemic (January 1, 2019-March 15, 2020); pandemic laboratory closed (March 16-July 12, 2020); and pandemic laboratory open (July 13-December 31, 2020). We estimated time from an index VL to a subsequent VL, stratified by whether the index VL was suppressed (≤200 copies/mL). We also calculated cumulative incidence of a nonsuppressed VL following a suppressed index VL, and of resuppression following a loss of viral suppression. RESULTS: Compared with prepandemic, hazard ratios for next VL check were 0.34 (95% CI: 0.30 to 0.37, laboratory-closed) and 0.73 (CI: 0.68 to 0.78, laboratory-open) for suppressed patients, and 0.56 (CI: 0.42 to 0.79, laboratory-closed) and 0.92 (95% CI: 0.76 to 1.10, laboratory-open) for nonsuppressed patients. The 12-month cumulative incidence of loss of suppression was the same in the pandemic laboratory-open (4%) and prepandemic (4%) period. The hazard of resuppression following the loss of suppression was lower during the pandemic laboratory-open versus the prepandemic period (hazard ratio: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.50 to 0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Early pandemic restrictions and laboratory closure significantly delayed VL monitoring. Once the laboratory reopened, nonsuppressed patients resumed normal monitoring. Suppressed patients still had a delay but no significant loss of suppression.

The relationship of alcohol and other drug use during the COVID-19 pandemic among people with or at risk of HIV; A cross-sectional survey of people enrolled in Collaborating Consortium of Cohorts Producing NIDA Opportunities (C3PNO) cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use during the COVID-19 pandemic increased. People living with HIV or at risk for HIV acquisition often have psycho-social and structural barriers or co-occurring substance use making them vulnerable to the adverse effects of alcohol. We describe factors associated with alcohol use during the COVID-19 pandemic in this group. METHODS: From May 2020 to February 2021, 1984 people enrolled in 6 existing cohort studies completed surveys about alcohol and other drug use during the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe the past-month prevalence of no alcohol use, low-risk use, and hazardous use. We use multinomial regression to describe factors associated with low-risk or hazardous alcohol use relative to no alcohol use. RESULTS: Forty-five percent of participants reported no alcohol use, 33% low-risk use, and 22% hazardous use in the past 30 days. Cannabis and stimulant use were associated with a higher prevalence of low-risk use relative to no use. Tobacco, stimulant, cannabis use and recent overdose were associated with a higher prevalence of hazardous use relative to no use. Substance use treatment and living with HIV were associated with a lower prevalence of low-risk or hazardous use relative to no use. CONCLUSIONS: Stimulant use was strongly associated with a higher prevalence of hazardous alcohol use while engagement in substance use treatment or living with HIV was associated with a lower prevalence. Ascertaining hazardous alcohol and other drug use, particularly stimulants, in clinical care could identify people at higher risk for adverse outcome and harm reduction counseling.

COVID-19 and the HIV continuum in people living with HIV enrolled in Collaborating Consortium of Cohorts Producing NIDA Opportunities (C3PNO) cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the normal delivery of HIV care, altered social support networks, and caused economic insecurity. People with HIV (PWH) are vulnerable to such disruptions, particularly if they have a history of substance use. We describe engagement in care and adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for PWH during the pandemic. METHODS: From May 2020 to February 2021, 773 PWH enrolled in 6 existing cohorts completed 1495 surveys about substance use and engagement in HIV care during the COVID-19 pandemic. We described the prevalence and correlates of having missed a visit with an HIV provider in the past month and having missed a dose of ART in the past week. RESULTS: Thirteen percent of people missed an HIV visit in the past month. Missing a visit was associated with unstable housing, food insecurity, anxiety, low resiliency, disruptions to mental health care, and substance use including cigarette smoking, hazardous alcohol use, cocaine, and cannabis use. Nineteen percent of people reported missing at least one dose of ART in the week prior to their survey. Missing a dose of ART was associated with being a man, low resiliency, disruptions to mental health care, cigarette smoking, hazardous alcohol use, cocaine, and cannabis use, and experiencing disruptions to substance use treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Social determinants of health, substance use, and disruptions to mental health and substance use treatment were associated with poorer engagement in HIV care. Close attention to continuity of care during times of social disruption is especially critical for PWH.

Alcohol Use Disorder and Recent Alcohol Use and HIV Viral Non-Suppression Among People Engaged in HIV Care in an Urban Clinic, 2014-2018.

We estimated joint associations between having history of alcohol use disorder (AUD) (based on prior ICD-9/ICD-10 codes) and recent self-reported alcohol use and viral non-suppression (≥ 1 viral load measurement > 20 copies/mL in the same calendar year as alcohol consumption was reported) among patients on ART enrolled in routine care, 2014-2018, in an urban specialty clinic. Among 1690 patients, 26% had an AUD, 21% reported high-risk alcohol use, and 39% had viral non-suppression. Relative to person-years in which people without AUD reported not drinking, prevalence of viral non-suppression was higher in person-years when people with AUD reported drinking at any level; prevalence of viral non-suppression was not significantly higher in person-years when people with AUD reported not drinking or person-years when people without AUD reported drinking at any level. No level of alcohol use may be "safe" for people with a prior AUD with regard to maintaining viral suppression.

Telemedicine and visit completion among people with HIV during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic compared with prepandemic.

OBJECTIVES: Telemedicine became the primary mode of delivering care during the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe the impact of telemedicine on access to care for people with HIV (PWH) by comparing the proportion of PWH engaged in care prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted an observational analysis of patients enrolled in the Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort, a single-center cohort of patients at an urban HIV subspecialty clinic affiliated with an academic center. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the clinic transitioned from in-person to mostly telemedicine visits. We compared patients receiving care in two time periods. The prepandemic period included 2010 people with at least one visit scheduled between 1 September 2019 and 15 March 2020. The pandemic period included 1929 people with at least one visit scheduled between 16 March 2020 and 30 September 2020. We determined the proportion of patients completing at least one of their scheduled visits during each period. RESULTS: Visit completion increased significantly from 88% prepandemic to 91% during the pandemic (P = 0.008). Visit completion improved significantly for patients age 20-39 (82 to 92%, P < 0.001), women (86 to 93%, P < 0.001), Black patients (88 to 91%, P = 0.002) and patients with detectable viremia (77 to 85%, P = 0.06) during the pandemic. Only 29% of people who completed at least one telemedicine visit during the pandemic did so as a video (versus telephone) visit. CONCLUSION: During the pandemic when care was widely delivered via telemedicine, visit completion improved among groups with lower prepandemic engagement but most were limited to telephone visits.

Depression and HIV viral nonsuppression among people engaged in HIV care in an urban clinic, 2014-2019.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe the risk of viral nonsuppression across the depression care cascade. DESIGN: A clinical cohort study. METHODS: We used depressive symptoms (PHQ-8 ≥ 10) self-reported on computer-assisted surveys, clinical diagnoses of depression in the medical record in the prior year and pharmacologic (any prescription for an antidepressant) and psychologic treatments for depression (attendance at at least two mental health visits in the prior year) to classify patients into groups: no history of depression; prior depression diagnosis; current indication for depression treatment (symptoms or clinical diagnosis); and treated depression (stratified by presence of persistent symptoms). We associated position in the depression care cascade with viral nonsuppression (>200 copies/ml) 7 days before to 6 months after the index self-report of depressive symptoms. RESULTS: History of depression [adjusted risk difference (aRD) relative to no history = 5.9%, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.5-10.3] and current depression (symptoms or diagnosis) in the absence of treatment (aRD relative to no current depression or depression treatment = 4.8%, 95% CI: 1.8-7.8) were associated with a higher risk of viral nonsuppression than no history of depression. Depression treatment mitigated this association (aRD = -0.4%, 95% CI: -2.5 to 1.7). CONCLUSION: The relationship between depression care cascade and viral suppression is complex. Untreated depression and clinically unrecognized depressive symptoms were both related to viral nonsuppression. Treated depression was not associated with viral nonsuppression; however, a high proportion of treated patients still had depressive symptoms. Depression treatment should be titrated if patients' symptoms are not responsive and patients with a history of depression should be monitored for ART adherence.

The Effect of Buprenorphine on Human Immunodeficiency Virus Viral Suppression.

BACKGROUND: Opioid use is prevalent among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) and adversely affects HIV outcomes. We assessed the effect of buprenorphine (BUP) initiation on subsequent HIV viral loads. METHODS: We identified PLWH from the Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort who initiated BUP between 2002 and 2017. Poisson regression with robust variance was used to estimate the prevalence of viral suppression (<200 copies/mL) before and after BUP initiation. We matched individuals who initiated BUP with controls based on viral load measurement dates and used prior event rate ratio (PERR) methods to estimate the effect of BUP initiation on viral suppression. PERR methods account for unmeasured confounders. RESULTS: We identified 279 PLWH who initiated BUP. After BUP initiation, PLWH were more likely to be virally suppressed (prevalence ratio [PR], 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.37). After matching PLWH who initiated BUP to controls and accounting for measured and unmeasured confounders, BUP initiation increased viral suppression for both those on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at baseline (PERR PR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.00-1.18) and those not on ART at baseline (PR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.10-1.61). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the initiation of BUP results in an increase in the probability of being virally suppressed after accounting for both measured and unmeasured confounders. Persons with opioid use disorder should initiate BUP to not only treat substance use but also to increase viral suppression allowing for treatment as prevention.

A learning algorithm for predicting mental health symptoms and substance use.

Learning health systems use data to generate knowledge that informs clinical care, but few studies have evaluated how to leverage patient-reported mental health symptoms and substance use data to make patient-specific predictions. We developed a general Bayesian prediction algorithm that uses self-reported psychiatric symptoms and substance use within a population to predict future symptoms and substance use for individuals in that population. We validated our approach in 2444 participants from two clinical cohorts - the National Network of Depression Centers and the Johns Hopkins HIV Clinical Cohort - by predicting symptoms of depression, anxiety, and mania as well as alcohol, heroin, and cocaine use and comparing our predictions to observed symptoms and substance use. When we dichotomized mental health symptoms as moderate-severe vs. none-mild, individual predictions yielded areas under the ROC curve (AUCs) of 0.84 [95% confidence interval 0.80-0.88] and 0.85 [0.82-0.88] for symptoms of depression in the two cohorts, AUCs of 0.84 [0.79-0.88] and 0.85 [0.82-0.88] for symptoms of anxiety, and an AUC of 0.77 [0.72-0.82] for manic symptoms. Predictions of substance use yielded an AUC of 0.92 [0.88-0.97] for heroin use, 0.90 [0.82-0.97] for cocaine use, and 0.90 [0.88-092] for alcohol misuse. This rigorous, mathematically grounded approach could provide patient-specific predictions at the point of care. It can be applied to other psychiatric symptoms and substance use indicators, and is customizable to specific health systems. Such approaches can realize the potential of a learning health system to transform ever-increasing quantities of data into tangible guidance for patient care.

Changing Patterns of Alcohol Use and Probability of Unsuppressed Viral Load Among Treated Patients with HIV Engaged in Routine Care in the United States.

We examined HIV viral load non-suppression ([Formula: see text] 200 copies/mL) subsequent to person-periods (3-18 months) bookended by two self-reports of alcohol use on a standardized patient reported outcome assessment among adults in routine HIV care. We examined the relative risk (RR) of non-suppression associated with increases and decreases in alcohol use (relative to stable use), stratified by use at the start of the person-period. Increases in drinking from abstinence were associated with higher risk of viral non-suppression (low-risk without binge: RR 1.16, 95% CI 1.03, 1.32; low-risk with binge: RR 1.35, 95% CI 1.11, 1.63; high-risk: RR 1.89, 95% CI 1.16, 3.08). Decreases in drinking from high-risk drinking were weakly, and not statistically significantly associated with lower risk of viral non-suppression. Other changes in alcohol use were not associated with viral load non-suppression. Most changes in alcohol consumption among people using alcohol at baseline were not strongly associated with viral non-suppression.

A comparison of cancer stage at diagnosis and treatment initiation between enrollees in an urban HIV clinic and SEER.

PURPOSE: A comparison of stage at cancer diagnosis and cancer treatment rates between people with HIV (PWH) and the general US population is needed to identify any disparities by HIV status. METHODS: We compared 236 PWH in clinical care diagnosed with cancer from 1997 to 2014 to a sample from NCI's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, presumed to be HIV negative. We performed G-computation using random forest methods to estimate stage and treatment percent differences (PD) by HIV. We conducted sensitivity analyses among non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADC), by sex and by CD4 ≤ 200 or > 200 cells/mm3. RESULTS: PWH were less likely to be diagnosed at localized stage (PD = - 16%; 95% CI - 21, - 11) and more likely to be diagnosed at regional stage (PD = 14%; 95% CI 8, 19) than those in SEER. Cancer treatment rates were 13% lower among PWH as compared to SEER (95% CI - 18, - 8). The difference in percent receiving cancer treatment was more pronounced for those with lower CD4 at cancer diagnosis (PD -15%; 95% CI - 27, - 6). Lower treatment rates were observed among NADC, males, and women with CD4 ≤ 200. CONCLUSION: Cancer care for PWH could be improved by diagnosis at earlier stages and increasing rates of cancer treatment.