Assessing Adherence to US LI-RADS Follow-up Recommendations in Vulnerable Patients Undergoing Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance.

Purpose To assess adherence to the US Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) recommendations for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance and associated patient-level factors in a vulnerable, diverse patient sample. Materials and Methods The radiology report database was queried retrospectively for patients who underwent US LI-RADS-based surveillance examinations at a single institution between June 1, 2020, and February 28, 2021. Initial US and follow-up liver imaging were included. Sociodemographic and clinical data were captured from electronic medical records. Adherence to radiologist recommendation was defined as imaging (US, CT, or MRI) follow-up in 5-7 months for US-1, imaging follow-up in 3-6 months for US-2, and CT or MRI follow-up in 2 months for US-3. Descriptive analysis and multivariable modeling that adjusted for age, sex, race, and time since COVID-19 pandemic onset were performed. Results Among 936 patients, the mean age was 59.1 years; 531 patients (56.7%) were male and 544 (58.1%) were Asian or Pacific Islander, 91 (9.7%) were Black, 129 (13.8%) were Hispanic, 147 (15.7%) were White, and 25 (2.7%) self-reported as other race. The overall adherence rate was 38.8% (95% CI: 35.7, 41.9). The most common liver disease etiology was hepatitis B (60.6% [657 of 936 patients]); 19.7% of patients (183 of 936) had current or past substance use disorder, and 44.8% (416 of 936) smoked. At adjusted multivariable analysis, older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.20; P = .02), male sex (OR, 1.62; P = .003), hepatology clinic attendance (OR, 3.81; P < .001), and recent prior US examination (OR, 2.44; P < .001) were associated with full adherence, while current smoking (OR, 0.39; P < .001) was negatively associated. Conclusion Adherence to HCC imaging surveillance was suboptimal, despite US LI-RADS implementation. Keywords: Liver, Ultrasound, Screening, Abdomen/GI, Cirrhosis, Metabolic Disorders, Socioeconomic Issues Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2024.

Underrecognition and Suboptimal Quality of Care for Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Cirrhosis in Primary Care Patients with Diabetes Mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a leading cause of cirrhosis but is underrecognized in primary care. Cirrhosis management requires complex monitoring, and the quality of care (QoC) for NAFLD cirrhosis patients in primary care may be inadequate. METHODS: In this retrospective-prospective cohort study of primary care patients with diabetes mellitus, we identified patients with NAFLD cirrhosis by 1) evidence of cirrhosis from abdominal imaging identified by natural language processing, or 2) existence of International Classification of Diseases code for cirrhosis. A finding of either was followed by manual chart review for confirmation of both cirrhosis and NAFLD. We then determined if cirrhosis care measures were up-to-date, including hepatitis A and B vaccination, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score components, esophagogastroduodenoscopy, and hepatocellular carcinoma screening. We created a composite score quantifying overall QoC (scale 0-8), with high QoC defined as ≥6 points. RESULTS: Among 3,028 primary care patients with diabetes mellitus, we identified 51 (1.7%) with NAFLD cirrhosis. Although 78% had ≥3 average primary care visits/year, only 24% completed hepatocellular carcinoma screening at least annually in at least 75% of years since diagnosis. The average QoC composite score was 4.9 (SD 2.4), and less than one-third had high QoC. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD cirrhosis is prevalent but underdiagnosed in primary care, and receipt of comprehensive QoC was suboptimal. Given the rising incidence of NAFLD cirrhosis, primary care providers need improved awareness and mechanisms to ensure high QoC for this population.

Prospective study of a case-finding algorithm to detect NAFLD with advanced fibrosis in primary care patients.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Primary care providers need strategies to identify NAFLD patients and select for specialty referral, but proposed algorithms have only been studied in established NAFLD patients. METHODS: We implemented an algorithm for all adults with diabetes mellitus in a large primary care practice and excluded hepatitis B and C or alcohol use. Applying annual Fibrosis-4 Index and NAFLD Fibrosis Score for 5 years, we categorized patients as low-risk, indeterminate-risk, or high-risk for advanced fibrosis. We targeted all high-risk and messaged each primary care provider, recommending hepatology linkage. We collected final diagnosis and fibrosis (F0-4) outcomes. Using multivariable logistic regression, we assessed risk factors for advanced fibrosis stage (F3-4). RESULTS: Of 3028 patients, 1018 were low-risk, 577 indeterminate-risk, and 611 high-risk. There were 264 target patients; their 89 primary care providers received a message per patient suggesting hepatology referral. The majority (n=149) were referred; at triage, 118 were deemed likely NAFLD. Of these, 90 completed visits, 78/90 were diagnosed as NAFLD, and 69/78 underwent fibrosis staging, with F3 to 4 in 25/69. In multivariable analysis, hemoglobin A1c ≥8% (OR=7.02, 95% CI: 1.29-38.18) and Fibrosis-4 Index (OR=1.79, 95% CI: 1.07-2.99) were associated with increased risk of F3 to 4. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first prospective study testing a case-finding strategy in primary care and almost 1/3 of diabetes mellitus were high-risk for advanced fibrosis. When prompted, 73% of primary care providers placed referrals and 76% of patients completed visits, revealing 86% NAFLD and 36% F3 to 4. This study demonstrates the readiness for such a strategy in primary care; integrating hemoglobin A1c into this algorithm may further improve the performance of Fibrosis-4 Index in this setting.

Primary Care Providers and Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Needs Assessment Survey.

BACKGROUND: Primary care providers (PCPs) face increasing numbers of patients at risk for NAFLD and are responsible for the detection of NAFLD and the decision on referral to specialists. We conducted a PCP needs assessment to ascertain the barriers and desired supports for NAFLD in primary care. METHODS: We designed a cross-sectional study of PCPs at a large diverse health system and surveyed faculty, residents, and nurse practitioners. Questions assessed NAFLD knowledge, approach to diagnosis and fibrosis testing including use of FIB-4, and attitudes toward support tools. RESULTS: The survey was sent to 115 PCPs with an 80% (n = 92) response rate. Respondents were 52% faculty and 48% residents. Over 40% were unsure of which diagnostic tests to order and which data constituted a diagnosis. PCPs were aware of the importance of fibrosis, yet few knew the components of FIB-4, few used FIB-4 in practice, and yet the most common reason for referral was to obtain fibrosis staging. The majority showed high levels of interest toward possible tools to improve NAFLD management, and only 5% perceived lack of time to be a barrier. DISCUSSION: Our survey revealed PCPs need and want strategic approaches to NAFLD. We found PCPs lack confidence in diagnosing NAFLD and are inconsistent in management strategies. PCPs had high awareness of the importance of fibrosis, but not of the FIB-4. It was encouraging that PCPs reported that time was not a major barrier and had positive attitudes toward potential practice support tools, indicating that practice guidelines designed for primary care should be created.

From Cancer Epidemiology to Policy and Practice: the Role of a Comprehensive Cancer Center.

Purpose of Review: Cancer incidence and mortality are decreasing, but inequities in outcomes persist. This paper describes the San Francisco Cancer Initiative (SF CAN) as a model for the systematic application of epidemiological evidence to reduce the cancer burden and associated inequities. Recent Findings: SF CAN is a multi-institutional implementation of existing evidence on the prevention and early detection of five common cancers (i.e., breast, prostate, colorectal, liver, and lung/tobacco-related cancers) accounting for 50% of cancer deaths in San Francisco. Five Task Forces follow individual logic models designating inputs, outputs, and outcomes. We describe the progress made and the challenges faced by each Task Force after 5 years of activity. Summary: SF CAN is a model for how the nation's Comprehensive Cancer Centers are ideally positioned to leverage cancer epidemiology for evidence-based initiatives that, along with genuine community engagement and multiple stakeholders, can reduce the population burden of cancer.

Cancer health disparities in racial/ethnic minorities in the United States.

There are well-established disparities in cancer incidence and outcomes by race/ethnicity that result from the interplay between structural, socioeconomic, socio-environmental, behavioural and biological factors. However, large research studies designed to investigate factors contributing to cancer aetiology and progression have mainly focused on populations of European origin. The limitations in clinicopathological and genetic data, as well as the reduced availability of biospecimens from diverse populations, contribute to the knowledge gap and have the potential to widen cancer health disparities. In this review, we summarise reported disparities and associated factors in the United States of America (USA) for the most common cancers (breast, prostate, lung and colon), and for a subset of other cancers that highlight the complexity of disparities (gastric, liver, pancreas and leukaemia). We focus on populations commonly identified and referred to as racial/ethnic minorities in the USA-African Americans/Blacks, American Indians and Alaska Natives, Asians, Native Hawaiians/other Pacific Islanders and Hispanics/Latinos. We conclude that even though substantial progress has been made in understanding the factors underlying cancer health disparities, marked inequities persist. Additional efforts are needed to include participants from diverse populations in the research of cancer aetiology, biology and treatment. Furthermore, to eliminate cancer health disparities, it will be necessary to facilitate access to, and utilisation of, health services to all individuals, and to address structural inequities, including racism, that disproportionally affect racial/ethnic minorities in the USA.

Effects of Metformin Exposure on Survival in a Large National Cohort of Patients With Diabetes and Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Type II diabetes mellitus worsens the prognosis of cirrhosis. Multiple medications including metformin and statins often are co-administered to manage patients with diabetes. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of metformin exposure on mortality, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma in individuals with diabetes and cirrhosis, controlling for multiple concomitant exposures. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis diagnosed between January 1, 2008, through June 30, 2016, in the Veterans Health administration. Marginal structural models and propensity-matching approaches were implemented to quantify the treatment effect of metformin in patients with pre-existing diabetes with or without prior metformin exposure. RESULTS: Among 74,984 patients with cirrhosis, diabetes mellitus was present before the diagnosis of cirrhosis in 53.8%, and was diagnosed during follow-up evaluation in 4.8%. Before the diagnosis of cirrhosis, 11,114 patients had active utilization of metformin. In these patients, metformin, statin, and angiotensinogen-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin-2-receptor blocker exposure were associated independently with reduced mortality (metformin hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.61-0.75); metformin was not associated with reduced hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation after adjustment for concomitant statin exposure. For patients with diabetes before a diagnosis of cirrhosis but no prior metformin exposure, metformin similarly was associated with reduced mortality (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.35-0.97), but not with reduced hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation. CONCLUSIONS: Metformin use in patients with cirrhosis and diabetes appears safe and is associated independently with reduced overall, but not liver-related, mortality, hepatocellular carcinoma, or decompensation after adjusting for concomitant statin and angiotensinogen-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin-2-receptor blocker exposure.

Randomized feasibility trial of directly observed versus unobserved hepatitis C treatment with ledipasvir-sofosbuvir among people who inject drugs.

AIMS: The advent of direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus (HCV) and limited effectiveness of prevention have generated interest in "Treatment as Prevention" (TasP), in which those most likely to transmit HCV (i.e. people who inject drugs [PWID]) are treated to reduced secondary transmission. However, there are scant data regarding the feasibility of treating PWID at high risk for secondary transmission or the optimal approach to treatment delivery. METHODS: We conducted a 2:1 randomized trial of modified directly-observed (mDOT) versus unobserved HCV treatment with ledipasvir-sofosbuvir daily for 8 weeks among PWID with 36 weeks of follow-up in San Francisco from 2015-2017. We evaluated recruitment-enrollment, treatment completion, end-of-treatment and 12-week response, and reinfection rate. RESULTS: Of 83 individuals eligible for screening, 72 (87.6%) attended the screening visit, 33 were eligible, and 31 enrolled; mean age was 42 years, 81% were male, 74% white. All but one participant (in the mDOT arm) completed treatment and 89.4% of mDOT and 96.6% of unobserved arm visits were attended. HCV was undetectable for 96.8% (30/31) at end of treatment and 89.7% (26/29) 12 weeks later (1 relapse, 1 reinfection), with no differences by arm. Two additional reinfections were subsequently identified, for a reinfection rate of 16.3 (95% CI 5.3-50.5) per 100 person-years of observation. CONCLUSIONS: It was feasible to recruit active PWID for HCV treatment and achieve high retention, viral response, and satisfaction with either mDOT or unobserved protocols, supporting treatment of PWID at risk of transmitting HCV to others. The reinfection rate suggests we successfully reached a high-risk population and that successful HCV TasP initiatives may aim to be sufficient in scope to significantly lower prevalence in the community. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT02609893.

Effects of Hypercholesterolemia and Statin Exposure on Survival in a Large National Cohort of Patients With Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Concerns related to hepatotoxicity frequently lead to discontinuation or non-initiation of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase therapy in patients with cirrhosis despite data supporting statin use. We investigated the independent effects of hyperlipidemia and statin exposure on mortality, hepatic decompensation, and hepatocellular carcinoma development in a large national cohort of patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with newly diagnosed cirrhosis from January 1, 2008 through June 30, 2016 in the Veterans Health Administration. Subjects were divided into 2 cohorts: 21,921 patients with prior statin exposure (existing users) and 51,023 statin-naïve individuals, of whom 8794 subsequently initiated statin therapy (new initiators) and 44,269 did not (non-initiators). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models with inverse probability weighting were constructed to assess the effects of time-updating lipid profiles and cumulative exposure to statins on survival and hepatic decompensation. Statin-naïve new initiators were propensity matched with non-initiators to simulate a randomized controlled trial of statin use in cirrhosis. RESULTS: In statin-naïve subjects, every 10-mg/dL increase in baseline total cholesterol was associated with a 3.6% decrease in mortality. In existing users, each year of continued statin exposure was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.920 (95% confidence interval 0.0.897-0.943) for mortality. After risk-set matching, each year of statin exposure among new initiators was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.913 (95% confidence interval 0.890-0.937) for mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective cohort study of veterans with a new diagnosis of cirrhosis, we associated hypercholesterolemia with well-preserved hepatic function and decreased mortality. Nonetheless, each cumulative year of statin exposure was associated with an independent 8.0%-8.7% decrease of mortality of patients with cirrhosis of Child-Turcotte-Pugh classes A and B.

Healthcare Costs Related to Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Among Veterans With Cirrhosis in the United States.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: It is important to quantify medical costs associated with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the incidence of which is rapidly increasing in the United States, for development of rational healthcare policies related to liver cancer surveillance and treatment of chronic liver disease. We aimed to comprehensively quantify healthcare costs for HCC among patients with cirrhosis in an integrated health system and develop a model for predicting costs that is based on clinically relevant variables. METHODS: Three years subsequent to liver cancer diagnosis, costs accrued by patients included in the Veteran's Outcome and Cost Associated with Liver disease cohort were compiled by using the Department of Veterans Affairs Corporate Data Warehouse. The cohort includes all patients with HCC diagnosed in 2008-2010 within the VA with 100% chart confirmation as well as chart abstraction of tumor and clinical characteristics. Cancer cases were matched 1:4 with non-cancer cirrhosis controls on the basis of severity of liver disease, age, and comorbidities to estimate background cirrhosis-related costs. Univariable and multivariable generalized linear models were developed and used to predict cancer-related overall cost. RESULTS: Our analysis included 3188 cases of HCC and 12,722 controls. The mean 3-year total cost of care in HCC patients was $154,688 (standard error, $150,953-$158,422) compared with $69,010 (standard error, $67,344-$70,675) in matched cirrhotic controls, yielding an incremental cost of $85,679; 64.9% of this value reflected increased inpatient costs. In univariable analyses, receipt of transplantation, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, liver disease etiology, hospital academic affiliation, use of multidisciplinary tumor board, and identification through surveillance were associated with cancer-related costs. Multivariable generalized linear models incorporating transplantation status, BCLC stage, and multidisciplinary tumor board presentation accurately predicted liver cancer-related costs (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit; P value ≅ 1.0). CONCLUSIONS: In a model developed to comprehensively quantify healthcare costs for HCC among patients with cirrhosis in an integrated health system, we associated receipt of liver transplantation, BCLC stage, and multidisciplinary tumor board with higher costs. Models that predict total costs on the basis of receipt of liver transplantation were constructed and can be used to model cost-effectiveness of therapies focused on HCC prevention.

Association of Provider Specialty and Multidisciplinary Care With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treatment and Mortality.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Little is known about provider and health system factors that affect receipt of active therapy and outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated patient, provider, and health system factors associated with receipt of active HCC therapy and overall survival. METHODS: We performed a national, retrospective cohort study of all patients diagnosed with HCC from January 1, 2008 through December 31, 2010 (n = 3988) and followed through December 31 2014 who received care through the Veterans Administration (128 centers). Outcomes were receipt of active HCC therapy (liver transplantation, resection, local ablation, transarterial therapy, or sorafenib) and overall survival. RESULTS: In adjusted analyses, receiving care at an academically affiliated Veterans Administration hospital (odds ratio [OR], 1.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.60-2.41) or a multi-specialist evaluation (OR, 1.60; 95% CI, 1.15-2.21), but not review by a multidisciplinary tumor board (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.98-1.46), was associated with a higher likelihood of receiving active HCC therapy. In time-varying Cox proportional hazards models, liver transplantation (hazard ratio [HR], 0.22; 95% CI, 0.16-0.31), liver resection (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.28-0.52), ablative therapy (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.52-0.76), and transarterial therapy (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.74-0.92) were associated with reduced mortality. Subspecialist care by hepatologists (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.63-0.78), medical oncologists (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.74-0.91), or surgeons (HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.71-0.89) within 30 days of HCC diagnosis, and review by a multidisciplinary tumor board (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.77-0.90), were associated with reduced mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In a retrospective cohort study of almost 4000 patients with HCC cared for at VA centers, geographic, provider, and system differences in receipt of active HCC therapy are associated with patient survival. Multidisciplinary methods of care delivery for HCC should be prospectively evaluated and standardized to improve access to HCC therapy and optimize outcomes.

Identifying barriers to hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in a national sample of patients with cirrhosis.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in cirrhosis patients. This provides an opportunity to target the highest-risk population, yet surveillance rates in the United States and Europe range from 10% to 40%. The goal of this study was to identify barriers to HCC surveillance, using data from the Veterans Health Administration, the largest provider of liver-related health care in the United States. We included all patients 75 years of age or younger who were diagnosed with cirrhosis from January 1, 2008, until December 31, 2010. The primary outcome was a continuous measure of the percentage of time up-to-date with HCC surveillance (PTUDS) based on abdominal ultrasound (secondary outcomes included computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging). Among 26,577 patients with cirrhosis (median follow-up = 4.7 years), the mean PTUDS was 17.8 ± 21.5% (ultrasounds) and 23.3 ± 24.1% when any liver imaging modality was included. The strongest predictor of increased PTUDS was the number of visits to a specialist (gastroenterologist/hepatologist and/or infectious diseases) in the first year after cirrhosis diagnosis; the association between visits to a primary care physician and increasing surveillance was very small. Increasing distance to the closest Veterans Administration center was associated with decreased PTUDS. There was an inverse association between ultrasound lead time (difference between the date an ultrasound was ordered and requested exam date) and the odds of it being performed: odds ratio = 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.72-0.82 when ordered > 180 days ahead of time; odds ratio = 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.85-0.94 if lead time 91-180 days. CONCLUSIONS: The responsibility for suboptimal surveillance rests with patients, providers, and the overall health care system; several measures can be implemented to potentially increase HCC surveillance, including increasing patient-specialist visits and minimizing appointment lead time. (Hepatology 2017;65:864-874).

Recalibrating the Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score to Improve Prediction of Transplant-Free Survival in Patients with Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is a widely used and validated predictor of long-term survival in cirrhosis. However, the cutpoints for stratifying laboratory variables in CTP have never been validated. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to identify evidence-based cutpoints for the CTP laboratory subscores to improve its predictive capacity for transplant-free survival. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. DATA SOURCE: Using a cohort of 30,897 cirrhotic US Veteran patients with at least 5 years of follow-up, we performed Cox proportional hazard survival model iterations varying the upper and lower cutpoints for INR, total bilirubin and albumin CTP subscores. Cutpoints yielding the highest Harrell's C-statistics for concordance with transplant-free survival were incorporated into a modified CTP (mCTP) score. Validation of the mCTP was performed at multiple time frames within the follow-up period of the cohort and within subsets defined by disease etiology. RESULTS: Modification of CTP cutpoints increased the Harrell's C-statistic for age- and gender-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models from 0.701 ± 0.002 to 0.709 ± 0.002 and the risk ratio per unit change from 1.49 (1.48-1.50) to 1.53 (1.52-1.54). The modified cutpoints showed superiority in predicting 5-year transplant-free survival in various disease etiology subgroups. A mCTP substituting serum creatinine for INR performed superiorly for predicting 5-year transplant-free survival. CONCLUSION: We propose an evidence-based recalibration of CTP score cutpoints that optimizes this model's capacity to predict transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis. The CTP score remains the best predictor of 5-year overall and transplant-free survival in patients with cirrhosis.

Pharmacologic Therapies in Gastrointestinal Diseases.

Several key areas in gastroenterology pharmacotherapy are rapidly evolving, including the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV), irritable bowel syndrome, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and peptic ulcer disease. HCV treatment has radically changed in the past 2 years and now most patients are treatment candidates and have a high likelihood of permanent cure. Pharmacotherapy is now first-line treatment for patients with moderate to severe symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome. Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are the mainstay of therapy in gastric and duodenal ulcers and GERD, although long-term use carries the risk of several side effects that should be considered.

Cost-effectiveness of Early Treatment of Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 1 by Stage of Liver Fibrosis in a US Treatment-Naive Population.

IMPORTANCE: Novel treatments for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are highly efficacious but costly. Thus, many insurers cover therapy only in advanced fibrosis stages. The added health benefits and costs of early treatment are unknown. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of (1) treating all patients with HCV vs only those with advanced fibrosis and (2) treating each stage of fibrosis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study used a decision-analytic model for the treatment of HCV genotype 1. The model used a lifetime horizon and societal perspective and was representative of all US patients with HCV genotype 1 who had not received previous treatment. Comparisons in the model included antiviral treatment of all fibrosis stages (METAVIR [Meta-analysis of Histological Data in Virial Hepatitis] stages F0 [no fibrosis] to F4 [cirrhosis]) vs treatment of stages F3 (numerous septa without cirrhosis) and F4 only and by specific fibrosis stage. Data were collected from March 1 to September 1, 2014, and analyzed from September 1, 2014, to June 30, 2015. INTERVENTIONS: Six HCV therapy options (particularly combined sofosbuvir and ledipasvir therapy) or no treatment. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Cost and health outcomes were measured using total medical costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), calculated as the difference in costs between strategies divided by the difference in QALYs. RESULTS: We simulated 1000 individuals, but present the results normalized to a single HCV-infected person. In the base-case analysis, among patients receiving 8 or 12 weeks of sofosbuvir-ledipasvir treatment, treating all fibrosis stages compared with treating stages F3 and F4 adds 0.73 QALYs and $28,899, for an ICER of $39,475 per QALY gained. Treating at stage F2 (portal fibrosis with rare septa) costs $19,833 per QALY gained vs waiting until stage F3; treating at stage F1 (portal fibrosis without septa), $81,165 per QALY gained compared with waiting until stage F2; and treating at stage F0, $187,065 per QALY gained compared with waiting until stage F1. Results for other regimens show a similar pattern. At base-case drug prices, treating 50% of all eligible US patients with HCV genotype 1 would cost $53 billion. In sensitivity analyses, the ICER for treating all stages vs treating stages F3 and F4 was most sensitive to cohort age, drug costs, utility values in stages F1 and F2, and percentage of patients eligible for 8-week therapy. Except for patients aged 70 years, the ICER remains less than $100,000 per QALY gained. A 46% reduction in cost of sofosbuvir-ledipasvir therapy decreases the ICER for treating at all fibrosis stages by 48%. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this simulated model, treating HCV infection at early stages of fibrosis appeared to improve health outcomes and to be cost-effective but incurred substantial aggregate costs. The findings may have implications for health care coverage policies and clinical decision making.

Development and Performance of an Algorithm to Estimate the Child-Turcotte-Pugh Score From a National Electronic Healthcare Database.

BACKGROUND & METHODS: The Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is a widely used and validated predictor of long-term survival in cirrhosis. The CTP score is a composite of 5 subscores, 3 based on objective clinical laboratory values and 2 subjective variables quantifying the severity of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy. To date, no system to quantify CTP score from administrative databases has been validated. The Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease study is a multicenter collaborative study to evaluate the outcomes and costs of hepatocellular carcinoma in the U.S. Veterans Health Administration. We developed and validated an algorithm to calculate electronic CTP (eCTP) scores by using data from the Veterans Health Administration Corporate Data Warehouse. METHODS: Multiple algorithms for determining each CTP subscore from International Classification of Diseases version 9, Common Procedural Terminology, pharmacy, and laboratory data were devised and tested in 2 patient cohorts. For each cohort, 6 site investigators (Boston, Bronx, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and West Haven VA Medical Centers) were provided cases from which to determine validity of diagnosis, laboratory data, and clinical assessment of ascites and encephalopathy. The optimal algorithm (designated eCTP) was then applied to 30,840 cirrhotic patients alive in the first quarter of 2008 for whom 5-year overall and transplant-free survival data were available. The ability of the eCTP score and other disease severity scores (Charlson-Deyo index, Veterans Aging Cohort Study index, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and Cirrhosis Comorbidity) to predict survival was then assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Spearman correlations for administrative and investigator validated laboratory data in the HCC and cirrhotic cohorts, respectively, were 0.85 and 0.92 for bilirubin, 0.92 and 0.87 for albumin, and 0.84 and 0.86 for international normalized ratio. In the HCC cohort, the overall eCTP score matched 96% of patients to within 1 point of the chart-validated CTP score (Spearman correlation, 0.81). In the cirrhosis cohort, 98% were matched to within 1 point of their actual CTP score (Spearman, 0.85). When applied to a cohort of 30,840 patients with cirrhosis, each unit change in eCTP was associated with 39% increase in the relative risk of death or transplantation. The Harrell C statistic for the eCTP (0.678) was numerically higher than those for other disease severity indices for predicting 5-year transplant-free survival. Adding other predictive models to the eCTP resulted in minimal differences in its predictive performance. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated an algorithm to extrapolate an eCTP score from data in a large administrative database with excellent correlation to actual CTP score on chart review. When applied to an administrative database, this algorithm is a highly useful predictor of survival when compared with multiple other published liver disease severity indices.