Regression without regrets -initial data analysis is a prerequisite for multivariable regression.

Statistical regression models are used for predicting outcomes based on the values of some predictor variables or for describing the association of an outcome with predictors. With a data set at hand, a regression model can be easily fit with standard software packages. This bears the risk that data analysts may rush to perform sophisticated analyses without sufficient knowledge of basic properties, associations in and errors of their data, leading to wrong interpretation and presentation of the modeling results that lacks clarity. Ignorance about special features of the data such as redundancies or particular distributions may even invalidate the chosen analysis strategy. Initial data analysis (IDA) is prerequisite to regression analyses as it provides knowledge about the data needed to confirm the appropriateness of or to refine a chosen model building strategy, to interpret the modeling results correctly, and to guide the presentation of modeling results. In order to facilitate reproducibility, IDA needs to be preplanned, an IDA plan should be included in the general statistical analysis plan of a research project, and results should be well documented. Biased statistical inference of the final regression model can be minimized if IDA abstains from evaluating associations of outcome and predictors, a key principle of IDA. We give advice on which aspects to consider in an IDA plan for data screening in the context of regression modeling to supplement the statistical analysis plan. We illustrate this IDA plan for data screening in an example of a typical diagnostic modeling project and give recommendations for data visualizations.

Genome-wide SNP assessment of contemporary European red deer genetic structure highlights the distinction of peripheral populations and the main admixture zones in Europe.

Genome-wide technologies open up new possibilities to clarify questions on genetic structure and phylogeographic history of taxa previously studied with microsatellite loci and mitochondrial sequences. Here, we used 736 individual red deer (Cervus elaphus) samples genotyped at 35,701 single nucleotide polymorphism loci (SNPs) to assess the population structure of the species throughout Europe. The results identified 28 populations, with higher degrees of genetic distinction in peripheral compared to mainland populations. Iberian red deer show high genetic differentiation, with lineages in Western and Central Iberia maintaining their distinctiveness, which supports separate refugial ranges within Iberia along with little recent connection between Iberian and the remaining Western European populations. The Norwegian population exhibited the lowest variability and the largest allele frequency differences from mainland European populations, compatible with a history of bottlenecks and drift during post-glacial colonization from southern refugia. Scottish populations showed high genetic distance from the mainland but high levels of diversity. Hybrid zones were found between Eastern and Western European lineages in Central Europe as well as in the Pyrenees, where red deer from France are in close contact with Iberian red deer. Anthropogenic restocking has promoted the Pyrenean contact zone, admixture events in populations on the Isle of Rum and in the Netherlands, and at least partly the admixture of the two main lineages in central-eastern Europe. Our analysis enabled detailed resolution of population structure of a large mammal widely distributed throughout Europe and contributes to resolving the evolutionary history, which can also inform conservation and management policies.

House dust mite allergen avoidance strategies for the treatment of allergic asthma: A hypothesis-generating meta-analysis.

Background: This study continues the review by Gøtzsche and Johansen (Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 2008, Art. No: CD001187), aiming to systematically generate hypotheses on the effectiveness of (sub)strategies for house dust mite allergen avoidance in the treatment of allergic asthma. Methods: We used the trials previously analysed by Gøtzsche and Johansen and searched recently published studies. Data on asthma symptom scores (ASS), ACQ, number of improved patients, AQLQ-scores, medication use, FEV1%, PC20, and FeNO levels were analysed. The effectiveness of strategies was assessed using Metafor in R. Results: Thirty-five trials involving 2419 patients were included in the final study. The patient-reported outcome number of patients with improved condition following total bedroom control was RR = 3.39 (95% confidence interval: 1.04 to 11.04, P = 0.04). The mean differences in the ASS by nocturnal air purification was -0.7 (95% confidence interval: -1.08 to -0.32, P < 0.001). Other outcomes including partial bedroom control were non-significant or clinically not of importance. Conclusions: Total bedroom control and nocturnal air purification of the breathing zone hypothetically provides clinical benefits in patients with house dust mite-induced allergic asthma. The number of patients with improvements in their condition respectively the asthma symptom score differences showed potential in small subgroups, consisting of single studies. Partial bedroom control is not recommended. Systematic Review Registration: Prospero CRD42022323660.

Swab Testing to Optimize Pneumonia treatment with empiric Vancomycin (STOP-Vanc): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

Background: Vancomycin, an antibiotic with activity against Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), is frequently included in empiric treatment for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) despite the fact that MRSA is rarely implicated in CAP. Conducting polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing on nasal swabs to identify the presence of MRSA colonization has been proposed as an antimicrobial stewardship intervention to reduce the use of vancomycin. Observational studies have shown reductions in vancomycin use after implementation of MRSA colonization testing, and this approach has been adopted by CAP guidelines. However, the ability of this intervention to safely reduce vancomycin use has yet to be tested in a randomized controlled trial. Methods: STOP-Vanc is a pragmatic, prospective, single center, non-blinded randomized trial. Adult patients with suspicion for CAP who are receiving vancomycin and admitted to the Medical Intensive Care Unit at Vanderbilt University Medical Center will be screened for eligibility. Eligible patients will be enrolled and randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either receive MRSA nasal swab PCR testing in addition to usual care (intervention group), or usual care alone (control group). PCR testing results will be transmitted through the electronic health record to the treating clinicians. Primary providers of intervention group patients with negative swab results will also receive a page providing clinical guidance recommending discontinuation of vancomycin. The primary outcome will be vancomycin-free hours alive, defined as the number of hours alive and free of the use of vancomycin within the first seven days following trial enrollment estimated using a proportional odds ratio model. Secondary outcomes include 30-day all-cause mortality and time alive off vancomycin. Discussion: STOP-Vanc will provide the first randomized controlled trial data regarding the use of MRSA nasal swab PCR testing to guide antibiotic de-escalation. This study will provide important information regarding the effect of MRSA PCR testing and antimicrobial stewardship guidance on clinical outcomes in an intensive care unit setting. Trial registration: This trial was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov on February 22, 2024. (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT06272994).

Comparison of skin prick test and prick-to-prick test with fruits and vegetables in the diagnosis of food allergy.

INTRODUCTION: Prick-to-prick (PTP) test with fresh food is accepted as a reliable tool for measuring sensitization to fruits and vegetables. Not all fruits and vegetables are available throughout the year. The objective of this study was to investigate whether skin prick test (SPT) performed with frozen juice of fruits and vegetables (FJFV) is a good alternative to PTP tests performed with fresh fruits and vegetables (FFV). METHODS: Adult patients suspected of having a food allergy to fruits and/or vegetables were included. A questionnaire was used to score symptoms after consumption of apple, kiwi, peach, tomato, and carrot. SPTs with FJFV, and PTP tests with FFV were performed. Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) between the SPT and PTP test results were calculated. The sensitivity and specificity of both diagnostic tests towards food allergen specific symptoms (FASS) were calculated. RESULTS: Thirty-six patients were included. FASS was positive in 75% for apple, 53% for kiwi, 44% for peach, 25% for tomato, and 22% for carrot. ICC between SPT and PTP test results were moderate for apple (0.72) and kiwi (0.71), strong for peach (0.75) and tomato (0.89), and very strong for carrot (0.94). Sensitivity was equal for the SPT and PTP tests for apple (0.93), peach (0.81), and carrot (1.00), and comparable for kiwi (0.50 resp. 0.70), and tomato (0.44 resp. 0.56). Specificity was equal for apple (0.33), peach (0.15), and carrot (0.41), and comparable for kiwi (0.29 resp. 0.21) and tomato (0.80 resp. 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: Results of SPT with FJFV and PTP test with FFV are comparable. SPT with FJFV is a good alternative in the daily practice of the allergists.

Evaluation of cross-neutralizing immunity following COVID-19 primary series vaccination during the Omicron surge in Tanzania.

COVID-19 vaccine became available in Tanzania during the first wave of the Omicron variant. During that time community seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was already at 50%-80%. To date, it remains largely unknown whether ongoing vaccination with the primary series vaccines has any meaningful immune-boosting effects against newer Omicron subvariants. Therefore, we tested cross-neutralizing capacity of antibodies elicited by infection, vaccination, or both against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants BA.1, and the newer subvariants BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5. that were unexperienced by this population. Participants who were either SARS-CoV-2 infected-only (n = 28), infected vaccinated (n = 22), or vaccinated-only (n = 73) were recruited from Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania, between April and December 2022. Plasma 50% neutralization titers (NT50) against SARS-CoV-2 wild-type strain and Omicron subvariants were quantified by a lentiviral-based pseudo-virus assay. Percentage of participants with neutralizing activity against WT and BA.1 was high (>85%) but was reduced against BQ.1.1 (64%-77%) and XBB.1.5 (35%-68%) subvariants. The low median cross-neutralization titer was slightly higher in the infected vaccinated group compared to vaccine-only group against BQ.1.1 (NT50 148 vs. 85, p = 0.032) and XBB.1.5 (NT50 85 vs. 37 p = 0.022) subvariants. In contrast, vaccine-boost among the infected vaccinated did not result to increased cross-neutralization compared to infected-only participants (BQ.1.1 [NT50 of 148 vs. 100, p = 0.501] and XBB.1.5 [NT50 86 vs. 45, p = 0.474]). We report severely attenuated neutralization titers against BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5 subvariants among vaccinated participants, which marginally improved in the infected vaccinated participants. Our findings call for further studies to evaluate effectiveness of the primary series vaccines in preventing severe infection and mortality against the newer variants.

Bayesian transition models for ordinal longitudinal outcomes.

Ordinal longitudinal outcomes are becoming common in clinical research, particularly in the context of COVID-19 clinical trials. These outcomes are information-rich and can increase the statistical efficiency of a study when analyzed in a principled manner. We present Bayesian ordinal transition models as a flexible modeling framework to analyze ordinal longitudinal outcomes. We develop the theory from first principles and provide an application using data from the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial (ACTT-1) with code examples in R. We advocate that researchers use ordinal transition models to analyze ordinal longitudinal outcomes when appropriate alongside standard methods such as time-to-event modeling.

Development of a set of measurable outcome indicators for Flemish patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

OBJECTIVE: Uniform and standardised quality measurement allows care assessment and improvement. Following a pragmatic consensus method we aimed to agree on a selection of measurable quality indicators that can be used to assess, benchmark and gradually improve inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) care in Flanders. METHODS: Of 49 structures, 135 processes and 37 outcome indicators identified through literature, 58 were preselected and reformulated into measurable outcome indicators by four IBD physicians. A larger expert group scored the 58 indicators on a 10-point importance scale twice, endorsed by patient and expert perspectives in between rounds. Additional items could be suggested. A final selection and subset of indicators with room for improvement were agreed upon during a consensus meeting. RESULTS: Fifty indicators received an importance score of 7 or higher by ≥80% of the participants (seven IBD nurses, one abdominal surgeon, one chief medical officer and 31 IBD physicians including two paediatricians). Eight indicators scored highly important by 60-80%, two indicators reintroduced by patients and one newly suggested, were discussed during the consensus meeting. Among 26 participants, eight indicators were agreed to be added to the final selection. Of the 58 selected items, 19 were retained in the improvement subset, related to patient-reported outcomes, use of hospital services and survival, patient characteristics, monitoring of disease activity and remission, endoscopy guidelines, infection prevention, steroid and other medication use. CONCLUSION: Fifty-eight indicators were selected to assess IBD care in Flanders and a subset of 19 for use in clinical practice to steer quality improvement initiatives.

Defluorination of monofluorinated alkane by Rhodococcus sp. NJF-7 isolated from soil.

Microbial degradation of fluorinated compounds raised significant attention because of their widespread distribution and potential environmental impacts. Here, we report a bacterial isolate, Rhodococcus sp. NJF-7 capable of defluorinating monofluorinated medium-chain length alkanes. This isolate consumed 2.29 ± 0.13 mmol L- 1 of 1-fluorodecane (FD) during a 52 h incubation period, resulting in a significant release of inorganic fluoride amounting to 2.16 ± 0.03 mmol L- 1. The defluorination process was strongly affected by the initial FD concentration and pH conditions, with lower pH increasing fluoride toxicity to bacterial cells and inhibiting enzymatic defluorination activity. Stoichiometric conversion of FD to fluoride was observed at neutral pH with resting cells, while defluorination was significantly lower at reduced pH (6.5). The discovery of the metabolites decanoic acid and methyl decanoate suggests that the initial attack by monooxygenases may be responsible for the biological defluorination of FD. The findings here provide new insights into microbial defluorination processes, specifically aiding in understanding the environmental fate of organic semi-fluorinated alkane chemicals.

Metabolite cross-feeding enables concomitant catabolism of chlorinated methanes and chlorinated ethenes in synthetic microbial assemblies.

Isolate studies have been a cornerstone for unraveling metabolic pathways and phenotypical (functional) features. Biogeochemical processes in natural and engineered ecosystems are generally performed by more than a single microbe and often rely on mutualistic interactions. We demonstrate the rational bottom-up design of synthetic, interdependent co-cultures to achieve concomitant utilization of chlorinated methanes as electron donors and organohalogens as electron acceptors. Specialized anaerobes conserve energy from the catabolic conversion of chloromethane or dichloromethane to formate, H2, and acetate, compounds that the organohalide-respiring bacterium Dehalogenimonas etheniformans strain GP requires to utilize cis-1,2-dichloroethenene and vinyl chloride as electron acceptors. Organism-specific qPCR enumeration matched the growth of individual dechlorinators to the respective functional (i.e. dechlorination) traits. The metabolite cross-feeding in the synthetic (co-)cultures enables concomitant utilization of chlorinated methanes (i.e. chloromethane and dichloromethane) and chlorinated ethenes (i.e. cis-1,2-dichloroethenene and vinyl chloride) without the addition of an external electron donor (i.e. formate and H2). The findings illustrate that naturally occurring chlorinated C1 compounds can sustain anaerobic food webs, an observation with implications for the development of interdependent, mutualistic communities, the sustenance of microbial life in oligotrophic and energy-deprived environments, and the fate of chloromethane/dichloromethane and chlorinated electron acceptors (e.g. chlorinated ethenes) in pristine environments and commingled contaminant plumes.

On the structural evolution of nanoporous optically transparent CuO photocathodes upon calcination for photoelectrochemical applications.

Copper oxides are promising photocathode materials for solar hydrogen production due to their narrow optical band gap energy allowing broad visible light absorption. However, they suffer from severe photocorrosion upon illumination, mainly due to copper reduction. Nanostructuring has been proven to enhance the photoresponse of CuO photocathodes; however, there is a lack of precise structural control on the nanoscale upon sol-gel synthesis and calcination for achieving optically transparent CuO thin film photoabsorbers. In this study, nanoporous and nanocrystalline CuO networks were prepared by a soft-templating and dip-coating method utilizing poly(ethylene oxide)-block-poly(propylene oxide)-block-poly(ethylene oxide) (Pluronic® F-127) as a structure-directing agent, resulting for the first-time in uniformly structured, crack-free, and optically transparent CuO thin films. The photoelectrochemical properties of the nanoporous CuO frameworks were investigated as a function of the calcination temperature and film thickness, revealing important information about the photocurrent, photostability, and photovoltage. Based on surface photovoltage spectroscopy (SPV), the films are p-type and generate up to 60 mV photovoltage at 2.0 eV (0.050 mW cm-2) irradiation for the film annealed at 750 °C. For these high annealing temperatures, the nanocrystalline domains in the thin film structure are more developed, resulting in improved electronic quality. In aqueous electrolytes with or without methyl viologen (as a fast electron acceptor), CuO films show cathodic photocurrents of up to -2.4 mA cm-2 at 0.32 V vs. RHE (air mass (AM) 1.5). However, the photocurrents were found to be entirely due to photocorrosion of the films and decay to near zero over the course of 20 min under AM 1.5 illumination. These fundamental results on the structural and morphological development upon calcination provide a direction and show the necessity for further (surface) treatment of sol-gel derived CuO photocathodes for photoelectrochemical applications. The study demonstrates how to control the size of nanopores starting from mesopore formation at 400 °C to the evolution of macroporous frameworks at 750 °C.

Population structure in Mixornis tit-babblers across Sunda Shelf matches interfluvia of paleo-rivers.

Rivers constitute an important biogeographic divide in vast areas of tropical rainforest, such as the Amazon and Congo Basins. Southeast Asia's rainforests are currently fragmented across islands divided by sea, which has long obscured their extensive history of terrestrial connectivity as part of a vast (but now submerged) subcontinent - Sundaland - during most of the Quaternary. The role of paleo-rivers in determining population structure in Sundaic rainforests at a time when these forests were connected remains little understood. We examined the coloration of museum skins and used the genomic DNA of museum samples and freshly-collected blood tissue of a pair of Sundaic songbird species, the pin-striped and bold-striped tit-babblers (Mixornis gularis and M. bornensis, respectively), to assess the genetic affinity of populations on small Sundaic islands that have largely been ignored by modern research. Our genomic and morphological results place the populations from the Anambas and Natuna Islands firmly within M. gularis from the Malay Peninsula in western Sundaland, even though some of these islands are geographically much closer to Borneo, where M. bornensis resides. Our results reveal genetic structure consistent with the course of Sundaic paleo-rivers and the location of the interfluvia they formed, and add to a small but growing body of evidence that rivers would have been of equal biogeographic importance in Sundaland's former connected forest landscape as they are in Amazonia and the Congo Basin today.

pH selects for distinct N2O-reducing microbiomes in tropical soil microcosms.

Nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas with ozone destruction potential, is mitigated by the microbial reduction to dinitrogen catalyzed by N2O reductase (NosZ). Bacteria with NosZ activity have been studied at circumneutral pH but the microbiology of low pH N2O reduction has remained elusive. Acidic (pH < 5) tropical forest soils were collected in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico, and microcosms maintained with low (0.02 mM) and high (2 mM) N2O assessed N2O reduction at pH 4.5 and 7.3. All microcosms consumed N2O, with lag times of up to 7 months observed in microcosms with 2 mM N2O. Comparative metagenome analysis revealed that Rhodocyclaceae dominated in circumneutral microcosms under both N2O feeding regimes. At pH 4.5, Peptococcaceae dominated in high-N2O, and Hyphomicrobiaceae in low-N2O microcosms. Seventeen high-quality metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) recovered from the N2O-reducing microcosms harbored nos operons, with all eight MAGs derived from acidic microcosms carrying the Clade II type nosZ and lacking nitrite reductase genes (nirS/K). Five of the eight MAGs recovered from pH 4.5 microcosms represent novel taxa indicating an unexplored N2O-reducing diversity exists in acidic tropical soils. A survey of pH 3.5-5.7 soil metagenome datasets revealed that nosZ genes commonly occur, suggesting broad distribution of N2O reduction potential in acidic soils.

N-of-1 Trial of Angina Verification Before Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

BACKGROUND: In stable coronary artery disease, 30% to 60% of patients remain symptomatic despite successful revascularization. Perhaps not all symptoms reported by a patient with myocardial ischemia are, in fact, angina. OBJECTIVES: This study sought to determine whether independent symptom verification using a placebo-controlled ischemic stimulus could distinguish which patients achieve greatest symptom relief from percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS: ORBITA-STAR was a multicenter, n-of-1, placebo-controlled study in patients undergoing single-vessel PCI for stable symptoms. Participants underwent 4 episodes (60 seconds each) of low-pressure balloon occlusion across their coronary stenosis, randomly paired with 4 episodes of placebo inflation. Following each episode, patients reported the similarity of the induced symptom in comparison with their usual symptom. The similarity score ranged from -10 (placebo replicated the symptom more than balloon occlusion) to +10 (balloon occlusion exactly replicated the symptom). The primary endpoint was the ability of the similarity score to predict symptom relief with PCI. RESULTS: Fifty-one patients were recruited, aged 62.9 ± 8.6 years. The median fractional flow reserve was 0.68 (Q1-Q3: 0.57-0.79), and the instantaneous wave-free ratio was 0.80 (Q1-Q3: 0.48-0.89). The median similarity score was 3 (Q1-Q3: 0.875-5.25). The similarity score was a strong predictor of symptom improvement following PCI: a patient with an upper quartile similarity score of 5.25 was significantly more likely to have lower angina frequency at follow-up (OR: 8.01; 95% credible interval: 2.39-15.86) than a patient with a lower quartile similarity score of 0.875 (OR: 1.31; 95% credible interval: 0.71-1.99), Pr(difference) >99.9%. CONCLUSIONS: Similarity score powerfully predicted symptom improvement from PCI. These data lay the foundation for independent symptom mapping to target PCI to those patients most likely to benefit. (Systematic Trial of Angina Assessment Before Revascularization [ORBITA-STAR]; NCT04280575).

Symptoms as a Predictor of the Placebo-Controlled Efficacy of PCI in Stable Coronary Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: Placebo-controlled evidence from ORBITA-2 (Objective Randomised Blinded Investigation with Optimal Medical Therapy of Angioplasty in Stable Angina-2) found that percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in stable coronary artery disease with little or no antianginal medication relieved angina, but residual symptoms persisted in many patients. The reason for this was unclear. OBJECTIVES: This ORBITA-2 secondary analysis investigates the relationship between presenting symptoms and disease severity (anatomic, noninvasive, and invasive ischemia) and the ability of symptoms to predict the placebo-controlled efficacy of PCI. METHODS: Prerandomization symptom severity and nature were assessed using the ORBITA smartphone application and symptom and quality of life questionnaires including the World Health Organization Rose angina questionnaire (Rose). Disease severity was assessed using quantitative coronary angiography, stress echocardiography, fractional flow reserve, and instantaneous wave-free ratio. Bayesian ordinal regression was used. RESULTS: At prerandomization, the median number of daily angina episodes was 0.8 (Q1-Q3: 0.4-1.6), 64% had Rose angina, quantitative coronary angiography diameter stenosis was 61% (Q1-Q3: 49%-74%), stress echocardiography score was 1.0 (Q1-Q3: 0.0-2.7), fractional flow reserve was 0.63 (Q1-Q3: 0.49-0.75), and instantaneous wave-free ratio was 0.78 (Q1-Q3: 0.55-0.87). There was little relationship between symptom severity and nature and disease severity: angina symptom score with quantitative coronary angiography ordinal correlation coefficient: 0.06 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.00-0.08); stress echocardiography: 0.09 (95% CrI: 0.02-0.10); fractional flow reserve: 0.04 (95% CrI: -0.03 to 0.07); and instantaneous wave-free ratio: 0.04 (95% CrI: -0.01 to 0.07). However, Rose angina and guideline-based typical angina were strong predictors of placebo-controlled PCI efficacy (angina symptom score: OR: 1.9; 95% CrI: 1.6-2.1; probability of interaction [PrInteraction] = 99.9%; and OR: 1.8; 95% CrI: 1.6-2.1; PrInteraction = 99.9%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Although symptom severity and nature were poorly associated with disease severity, the nature of symptoms powerfully predicted the placebo-controlled efficacy of PCI.

The LTAR cropland common experiment in the Lower Mississippi River Basin.

The Lower Mississippi River Basin-Long-Term Agroecosystem Research Site (LMRB-LTAR) encompasses six states from Missouri to the Gulf of Mexico and is coordinated by the USDA-ARS National Sedimentation Laboratory, Oxford, MS. The overarching goal of LTAR is to assess regionally diverse and geographically scalable farming practices for enhanced sustainability of agroecosystem goods and services under changing environment and resource-use conditions. The LMRB-LTAR overall goal is to assess sustainable row crop agricultural production systems that integrate regional environmental and socioeconomic needs. Primary row crops in the region include soybeans, corn, cotton, rice, and sugarcane with crop rotations influenced by commodity crop price and other factors. The field-scale common experiment (CE) includes four row crop farms (26-101 ha) established in 2021 and 2023. Three fields are managed with alternative practices, including reduced tillage, cover crops, and automated prescription irrigation, and three fields are managed with prevailing farming practices, consisting of conventional tillage, no cover crop, and nonprescription irrigation. Treatment effects on crop productivity, soil quality, water use efficiency, water quality, and carbon storage are assessed. Research from the LMRB CE will deliver outcomes linked to overarching LTAR network goals, including innovative agricultural systems, strengthened partnerships, data management technologies, and precision environmental tools.

Solving the 250-year-old mystery of the origin and global spread of the German cockroach, Blattella germanica.

The origin of the German cockroach, Blattella germanica, is enigmatic, in part because it is ubiquitous worldwide in human-built structures but absent from any natural habitats. The first historical records of this species are from ca. 250 years ago (ya) from central Europe (hence its name). However, recent research suggests that the center of diversity of the genus is Asian, where its closest relatives are found. To solve this paradox, we sampled genome-wide markers of 281 cockroaches from 17 countries across six continents. We confirm that B. germanica evolved from the Asian cockroach Blattella asahinai approximately 2,100 ya, probably by adapting to human settlements in India or Myanmar. Our genomic analyses reconstructed two primary global spread routes, one older, westward route to the Middle East coinciding with various Islamic dynasties (~1,200 ya), and another younger eastward route coinciding with the European colonial period (~390 ya). While Europe was not central to the early domestication and spread of the German cockroach, European advances in long-distance transportation and temperature-controlled housing were likely important for the more recent global spread, increasing chances of successful dispersal to and establishment in new regions. The global genetic structure of German cockroaches further supports our model, as it generally aligns with geopolitical boundaries, suggesting regional bridgehead populations established following the advent of international commerce.