Effect of SGLT2 inhibitors on heart failure outcomes and cardiovascular death across the cardiometabolic disease spectrum: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have been studied in patients with heart failure, type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, and acute myocardial infarction. Individual trials were powered to study composite outcomes in one disease state. We aimed to evaluate the treatment effect of SGLT2 inhibitors on specific clinical endpoints across multiple demographic and disease subgroups. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we queried online databases (PubMed, Cochrane CENTRAL, and SCOPUS) up to Feb 10, 2024, for primary and secondary analyses of large trials (n>1000) of SGLT2 inhibitors in patients with heart failure, type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (including acute myocardial infarction). Outcomes studied included composite of first hospitalisation for heart failure or cardiovascular death, first hospitalisation for heart failure, cardiovascular death, total (first and recurrent) hospitalisation for heart failure, and all-cause mortality. Effect sizes were pooled using random-effects models. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42024513836. FINDINGS: We included 15 trials (N=100 952). Compared with placebo, SGLT2 inhibitors reduced the risk of first hospitalisation for heart failure by 29% in patients with heart failure (hazard ratio [HR] 0·71 [95% CI 0·67-0·77]), 28% in patients with type 2 diabetes (0·72 [0·67-0·77]), 32% in patients with chronic kidney disease (0·68 [0·61-0·77]), and 28% in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (0·72 [0·66-0·79]). SGLT2 inhibitors reduced cardiovascular death by 14% in patients with heart failure (HR 0·86 [95% CI 0·79-0·93]), 15% in patients with type 2 diabetes (0·85 [0·79-0·91]), 11% in patients with chronic kidney disease (0·89 [0·82-0·96]), and 13% in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (0·87 [0·78-0·97]). The benefit of SGLT2 inhibitors on both first hospitalisation for heart failure and cardiovascular death was consistent across the majority of the 51 subgroups studied. Notable exceptions included acute myocardial infarction (22% reduction in first hospitalisation for heart failure; no effect on cardiovascular death) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (26% reduction in first hospitalisation for heart failure; no effect on cardiovascular death). INTERPRETATION: SGLT2 inhibitors reduced heart failure events and cardiovascular death in patients with heart failure, type 2 diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. These effects were consistent across a wide range of subgroups within these populations. This supports the eligibility of a large population with cardiorenal-metabolic diseases for treatment with SGLT2 inhibitors. FUNDING: None.

Transition from asymptomatic to symptomatic systolic chronic heart failure: rationale and design of TransitionCHF.

AIMS: Chronic systolic heart failure (CHF) is a major health burden. A relevant number of patients shows asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction (ALVSD) before symptomatic CHF or becomes asymptomatic after initiating heart failure therapy. Clinical course, prognosis, and response to pharmacological and device-based treatment are largely unknown in these two distinct groups of patients. Current pharmacological and interventional therapies do neither properly address the underlying pathophysiology nor prevent malignant loss of function. New therapeutic paradigms are needed to stop the progression from asymptomatic to symptomatic heart failure. Key questions are what causes progression of clinically asymptomatic New York Heart Association (NYHA) I heart failure to overt heart failure (>NYHA I) in some but not all patients and the underlying reasons for this transition. This requires the identification of disease mechanisms and biomarkers that predict outcome in well-defined cohorts for innovative preclinical and clinical trials. METHODS AND RESULTS: TransitionCHF is a prospective, multicentre, longitudinal pathophysiological evaluation cohort study in patients with asymptomatic systolic dysfunction NYHA I and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40%. The cohort comprises both incidental findings and patients who had become asymptomatic after a previous symptomatic event. TransitionCHF has recruited 1000 patients with ALVSD caused by various aetiologies in 20 university heart failure clinics across Germany. Both patients with and without comorbidities at study entry will be recruited. Patients will be systematically investigated and followed up annually over the course of the study. The primary composite endpoint is time to hospitalization for heart failure and cardiovascular death. The secondary endpoints assess time to all-cause mortality, to cardiovascular mortality, to heart failure mortality, to all-cause hospitalization, to heart failure hospitalization, and to recurrent heart failure hospitalizations, as well as time to assist device implantation/transplantation. Additional investigations focusing on biomarkers, comorbidities, gender aspects, nutrition, and functional parameters including quality of life will be performed. CONCLUSIONS: TransitionCHF will provide a more thorough pathophysiological understanding of the progression of asymptomatic systolic dysfunction into symptomatic heart failure that will help develop therapies tailored to prevent progressive heart failure.

Methods for non-proportional hazards in clinical trials: A systematic review.

For the analysis of time-to-event data, frequently used methods such as the log-rank test or the Cox proportional hazards model are based on the proportional hazards assumption, which is often debatable. Although a wide range of parametric and non-parametric methods for non-proportional hazards has been proposed, there is no consensus on the best approaches. To close this gap, we conducted a systematic literature search to identify statistical methods and software appropriate under non-proportional hazard. Our literature search identified 907 abstracts, out of which we included 211 articles, mostly methodological ones. Review articles and applications were less frequently identified. The articles discuss effect measures, effect estimation and regression approaches, hypothesis tests, and sample size calculation approaches, which are often tailored to specific non-proportional hazard situations. Using a unified notation, we provide an overview of methods available. Furthermore, we derive some guidance from the identified articles.

Randomized investigation of the MitraClip device in heart failure: Design and rationale of the RESHAPE-HF2 trial design.

AIMS: The safety and effectiveness of the MitraClip device to treat functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) has been tested in previous clinical trials yielding somewhat heterogeneous results in heart failure (HF) patients. Over time, the MitraClip device system has been modified and clinical practice evolved to consider also less severely diseased HF patients with FMR for this therapeutic option. The RESHAPE-HF2 trial aims to assess the safety and effectiveness of the MitraClip device system on top of medical therapy considered optimal in the treatment of clinically significant FMR in symptomatic patients with chronic HF. METHODS: The RESHAPE-HF2 is an investigator-initiated, prospective, randomized, parallel-controlled, multicentre trial designed to evaluate the use of the MitraClip device (used in the most up-to-date version as available at sites) plus optimal standard of care therapy (device group) compared to optimal standard of care therapy alone (control group). Eligible subjects have signs and symptoms of HF (New York Heart Association [NYHA] class II-IV despite optimal therapy), and have moderate-to-severe or severe FMR, as confirmed by a central echocardiography core laboratory; have an ejection fraction between ≥20% and ≤50% (initially 15-35% for NYHA class II patients, and 15-45% for NYHA class III/IV patients); have been adequately treated per applicable standards, and have received appropriate revascularization and cardiac resynchronization therapy, if eligible; had a HF hospitalization or elevated natriuretic peptides (B-type natriuretic peptide [BNP] ≥300 pg/ml or N-terminal proBNP ≥1000 pg/ml) in the last 90 days; and in whom isolated mitral valve surgery is not a recommended treatment option. The trial has three primary endpoints, which are these: (i) the composite rate of total (first and recurrent) HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death during 24 months of follow-up, (ii) the rate of total (i.e. first and recurrent) HF hospitalizations within 24 months, and (iii) the change from baseline to 12 months in the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire overall score. The three primary endpoints will be analysed using the Hochberg procedure to control the familywise type I error rate across the three hypotheses. CONCLUSIONS: The RESHAPE-HF2 trial will provide sound evidence on the MitraClip device and its effects in HF patients with FMR. The recruitment was recently completed with 506 randomized patients.

Health economic evaluation of blended collaborative care for older multimorbid heart failure patients: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Integrated care, in particular the 'Blended Collaborative Care (BCC)' strategy, may have the potential to improve health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in multimorbid patients with heart failure (HF) and psychosocial burden at no or low additional cost. The ESCAPE trial is a randomised controlled trial for the evaluation of a BCC approach in five European countries. For the economic evaluation of alongside this trial, the four main objectives were: (i) to document the costs of delivering the intervention, (ii) to assess the running costs across study sites, (iii) to evaluate short-term cost-effectiveness and cost-utility compared to providers' usual care, and (iv) to examine the budgetary implications. METHODS: The trial-based economic analyses will include cross-country cost-effectiveness and cost-utility assessments from a payer perspective. The cost-utility analysis will calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) using the EQ-5D-5L and national value sets. Cost-effectiveness will include the cost per hospital admission avoided and the cost per depression-free days (DFD). Resource use will be measured from different sources, including electronic medical health records, standardised questionnaires, patient receipts and a care manager survey. Uncertainty will be addressed using bootstrapping. DISCUSSION: The various methods and approaches used for data acquisition should provide insights into the potential benefits and cost-effectiveness of a BCC intervention. Providing the economic evaluation of ESCAPE will contribute to a country-based structural and organisational planning of BCC (e.g., the number of patients that may benefit, how many care managers are needed). Improved care is expected to enhance health-related quality of life at little or no extra cost. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The study follows CHEERS2022 and is registered at the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS00025120).

[OPTINOFA-Intelligent assistance service for structured assessment in the emergency department]. / OPTINOFA ­ Intelligenter Assistenzdienst zur strukturierten Ersteinschätzung in der Notaufnahme.

BACKGROUND: Case numbers in central emergency departments (EDs) have risen during the past decade in Germany, leading to recurrent overcrowding, increased risks in emergency care, and elevated costs. Particularly the fraction of outpatient emergency treatments has increased disproportionately. Within the framework of the Optimization of emergency care by structured triage with intelligent assistant service (OPTINOFA, Förderkennzeichen [FKZ] 01NVF17035) project, an intelligent assistance service was developed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: New triage algorithms were developed for the 20 most frequent leading symptoms on the basis of established triage systems (emergency severity index, ESI; Manchester triage system, MTS) and provided as web-based intelligent assistance services on mobile devices. To evaluate the validity, reliability, and safety of the new OPTINOFA triage instrument, a pilot study was conducted in three EDs after ethics committee approval. RESULTS: In the pilot study, n = 718 ED patients were included (age 59.1 ± 22 years; 349 male, 369 female). With respect to disposition (out-/inpatient), a sensitivity of 91.1% and a specificity of 40.7%, and a good correlation with the OPTINOFA triage levels were detected (Spearman's rank correlation ρ = 0.41). Furthermore, the area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of disposition according to the OPTINOFA triage level was 0.73. The in-hospital mortality rate of OPTINOFA triage levels 4 and 5 was 0%. The association between the length of ED stay and the OPTINOFA triage level was shown to be significant (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The results of the pilot study demonstrate the safety and validity of the new triage system OPTINOFA. By definition of both urgency and emergency care level, new customized perspectives for load reduction in German EDs via a closer cooperation between out- and inpatient sectors of emergency care could be established.

A diagnostic phase III/IV seamless design to investigate the diagnostic accuracy and clinical effectiveness using the example of HEDOS and HEDOS II.

The development process of medical devices can be streamlined by combining different study phases. Here, for a diagnostic medical device, we present the combination of confirmation of diagnostic accuracy (phase III) and evaluation of clinical effectiveness regarding patient-relevant endpoints (phase IV) using a seamless design. This approach is used in the Thyroid HEmorrhage DetectOr Study (HEDOS & HEDOS II) investigating a post-operative hemorrhage detector named ISAR-M THYRO® in patients after thyroid surgery. Data from the phase III trial are reused as external controls in the control group of the phase IV trial. An unblinded interim analysis is planned between the two study stages which includes a recalculation of the sample size for the phase IV part after completion of the first stage of the seamless design. The study concept presented here is the first seamless design proposed in the field of diagnostic studies. Hence, the aim of this work is to emphasize the statistical methodology as well as feasibility of the proposed design in relation to the planning and implementation of the seamless design. Seamless designs can accelerate the overall trial duration and increase its efficiency in terms of sample size and recruitment. However, careful planning addressing numerous methodological and procedural challenges is necessary for successful implementation as well as agreement with regulatory bodies.

On the role of benchmarking data sets and simulations in method comparison studies.

Method comparisons are essential to provide recommendations and guidance for applied researchers, who often have to choose from a plethora of available approaches. While many comparisons exist in the literature, these are often not neutral but favor a novel method. Apart from the choice of design and a proper reporting of the findings, there are different approaches concerning the underlying data for such method comparison studies. Most manuscripts on statistical methodology rely on simulation studies and provide a single real-world data set as an example to motivate and illustrate the methodology investigated. In the context of supervised learning, in contrast, methods are often evaluated using so-called benchmarking data sets, that is, real-world data that serve as gold standard in the community. Simulation studies, on the other hand, are much less common in this context. The aim of this paper is to investigate differences and similarities between these approaches, to discuss their advantages and disadvantages, and ultimately to develop new approaches to the evaluation of methods picking the best of both worlds. To this aim, we borrow ideas from different contexts such as mixed methods research and Clinical Scenario Evaluation.

Time to Disability Milestones and Annualized Relapse Rates in NMOSD and MOGAD.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate accumulation of disability in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) and myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein-antibody-associated disease (MOGAD) in a changing treatment landscape. We aimed to identify risk factors for the development of disability milestones in relation to disease duration, number of attacks, and age. METHODS: We analyzed data from individuals with NMOSD and MOGAD from the German Neuromyelitis Optica Study Group registry. Applying survival analyses, we estimated risk factors and computed time to disability milestones as defined by the Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS). RESULTS: We included 483 patients: 298 AQP4-IgG+ NMOSD, 52 AQP4-IgG-/MOG-IgG- NMOSD patients, and 133 patients with MOGAD. Despite comparable annualized attack rates, disability milestones occurred earlier and after less attacks in NMOSD patients than MOGAD patients (median time to EDSS 3: AQP4-IgG+ NMOSD 7.7 (95% CI 6.6-9.6) years, AQP4-IgG-/MOG-IgG- NMOSD 8.7) years, MOGAD 14.1 (95% CI 10.4-27.6) years; EDSS 4: 11.9 (95% CI 9.7-14.7), 11.6 (95% lower CI 7.6) and 20.4 (95% lower CI 14.1) years; EDSS 6: 20.1 (95% CI 16.5-32.1), 20.7 (95% lower CI 11.6), and 37.3 (95% lower CI 29.4) years; and EDSS 7: 34.2 (95% lower CI 31.1) for AQP4-IgG+ NMOSD). Higher age at onset increased the risk for all disability milestones, while risk of disability decreased over time. INTERPRETATION: AQP4-IgG+ NMOSD, AQP4-IgG-/MOG-IgG- NMOSD, and MOGAD patients show distinctive relapse-associated disability progression, with MOGAD having a less severe disease course. Investigator-initiated research has led to increasing awareness and improved treatment strategies appearing to ameliorate disease outcomes for NMOSD and MOGAD. ANN NEUROL 2024;95:720-732.

Interim decision making in seamless trial designs: An application in an adaptive dose-finding study in a rare kidney disease.

Adaptive seamless trial designs, combining the learning and confirming cycles of drug development in a single trial, have gained popularity in recent years. Adaptations may include dose selection, sample size re-estimation and enrichment of the study population. Despite methodological advances and recognition of the potential efficiency gains such designs offer, their implementation, including how to enable efficient decision making on the adaptations in interim analyzes, remains a key challenge in their adoption. This manuscript uses a case study of an adaptive seamless proof-of-concept (Phase 2a)/dose-finding (Phase 2b) to showcase potential adaptive features that can be implemented in trial designs at earlier development stages and the role of simulations in assessing the design operating characteristics and specifying the decision rules for the adaptations. It further outlines the elements needed to support successful interim analysis decision making on the adaptations while safeguarding study integrity, including the role of different stakeholders, interactive simulation-based tools to facilitate decision making and operational aspects requiring preplanning. The benefits of the adaptive Phase 2a/2b design chosen compared to following the traditional two separate studies (2a and 2b) paradigm are discussed. With careful planning and appreciation of their complexity and components needed for their implementation, seamless adaptive designs have the potential to yield significant savings both in terms of time and resources.

QRS complex and T wave planarity for the efficacy prediction of automatic implantable defibrillators.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that in recipients of primary prophylactic implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs), the non-planarity of ECG vector loops predicts (a) deaths despite ICD protection and (b) appropriate ICD shocks. METHODS: Digital pre-implant ECGs were collected in 1948 ICD recipients: 21.4% females, median age 65 years, 61.5% ischaemic heart disease (IHD). QRS and T wave three-dimensional loops were constructed using singular value decomposition that allowed to measure the vector loop planarity. The non-planarity, that is, the twist of the three-dimensional loops out of a single plane, was related to all-cause mortality (n=294; 15.3% females; 68.7% IHD) and appropriate ICD shocks (n=162; 10.5% females; 87.7% IHD) during 5-year follow-up after device implantation. Using multivariable Cox regression, the predictive power of QRS and T wave non-planarity was compared with that of age, heart rate, left ventricular ejection fraction, QRS duration, spatial QRS-T angle, QTc interval and T-peak to T-end interval. RESULTS: QRS non-planarity was significantly (p<0.001) associated with follow-up deaths despite ICD protection with HR of 1.339 (95% CI 1.165 to 1.540) but was only univariably associated with appropriate ICD shocks. Non-planarity of the T wave loop was the only ECG-derived index significantly (p<0.001) associated with appropriate ICD shocks with multivariable Cox regression HR of 1.364 (1.180 to 1.576) but was not associated with follow-up mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The analysed data suggest that QRS and T wave non-planarity might offer distinction between patients who are at greater risk of death despite ICD protection and those who are likely to use the defibrillator protection.

Patient-reported outcome parameters and disability worsening in progressive multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: Detection and prediction of disability progression is a significant unmet need in people with progressive multiple sclerosis (PwPMS). Government and health agencies have deemed the use of patient-reported outcomes measurements (PROMs) in clinical practice and clinical trials a major strategic priority. Nevertheless, data documenting the clinical utility of PROMs in neurological diseases is scarce. This study evaluates if assessment of PROMs could track progression in PwPMS. METHODS: Emerging blood Biomarkers in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (EmBioProMS) investigated PROMs (Beck depression inventory-II (BDI-II), multiple sclerosis impact scale-29 (MSIS-29), fatigue scale for motor and cognition (FSMC)) in PwPMS (primary [PPMS] and secondary progressive MS [SPMS]). PROMs were evaluated longitudinally and compared between participants with disability progression (at baseline; retrospective evidence of disability progression (EDP), and during follow up (FU); prospective evidence of confirmed disability progression (CDP)) and those without progression. In an independent cohort of placebo participants of the phase III ORATORIO trial in PPMS, the diagnostic and prognostic value of another PROMs score (36-Item Short Form Survey [SF-36]) regarding CDP was evaluated. RESULTS: EmBioProMS participants with EDP in the two years prior to inclusion (n = 136/227), or who suffered from CDP during FU (number of events= 88) had worse BDI-II, MSIS-29, and FSMC scores compared to PwPMS without progression. In addition, baseline MSIS29physical above 70th, 80th, and 90th percentiles predicted future CDP/ progression independent of relapse activity in EmBioProMS PPMS participants (HR of 3.7, 6.9, 6.7, p = 0.002, <0.001, and 0.001, respectively). In the placebo arm of ORATORIO (n = 137), the physical component score (PCS) of SF-36 worsened at week 120 compared to baseline, in cases who experienced progression over the preceding trial period (P = 0.018). Worse PCS at baseline was associated with higher hazard ratios of disability accumulation over the subsequent 120 weeks (HR: 2.01 [30th-], 2.11 [20th-], and 2.8 [10th percentile], P = 0.007, 0.012 and 0.005, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: PROMs could provide additional, practical, cost-efficient, and remotely accessible insight about disability progression in PMS through standardized, structured, and quantifiable patient feedback.

Clinical course and follow-up of pediatric patients with COVID-19 vaccine-associated myocarditis compared to non-vaccine-associated myocarditis within the prospective multicenter registry-"MYKKE".

BACKGROUND: Since the onset of widespread COVID-19 vaccination, increased incidence of COVID-19 vaccine-associated myocarditis (VA-myocarditis) has been noted, particularly in male adolescents. METHODS: Patients <18 years with suspected myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination within 21 days were enrolled in the PedMYCVAC cohort, a substudy within the prospective multicenter registry for pediatric myocarditis "MYKKE." Clinical data at initial admission, 3- and 9-months follow-up were monitored and compared to pediatric patients with confirmed non-vaccine-associated myocarditis (NVA-myocarditis) adjusting for various baseline characteristics. RESULTS: From July 2021 to December 2022, 56 patients with VA-myocarditis across 15 centers were enrolled (median age 16.3 years, 91% male). Initially, 11 patients (20%) had mildly reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF; 45%-54%). No incidents of severe heart failure, transplantation or death were observed. Of 49 patients at 3-months follow-up (median (IQR) 94 (63-118) days), residual symptoms were registered in 14 patients (29%), most commonly atypical intermittent chest pain and fatigue. Diagnostic abnormalities remained in 23 patients (47%). Of 21 patients at 9-months follow-up (259 (218-319) days), all were free of symptoms and diagnostic abnormalities remained in 9 patients (43%). These residuals were mostly residual late gadolinium enhancement in magnetic resonance imaging. Patients with NVA-myocarditis (n=108) more often had symptoms of heart failure (P = .003), arrhythmias (P = .031), left ventricular dilatation (P = .045), lower LVEF (P < .001) and major cardiac adverse events (P = .102). CONCLUSIONS: Course of COVID-19 vaccine-associated myocarditis in pediatric patients seems to be mild and differs from non-vaccine-associated myocarditis. Due to a considerable number of residual symptoms and diagnostic abnormalities at follow-up, further studies are needed to define its long-term implications.

Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis with empirical heterogeneity priors for application in health technology assessment with very few studies.

In Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis, the use of weakly informative prior distributions is of particular benefit in cases where only a few studies are included, a situation often encountered in health technology assessment (HTA). Suggestions for empirical prior distributions are available in the literature but it is unknown whether these are adequate in the context of HTA. Therefore, a database of all relevant meta-analyses conducted by the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG, Germany) was constructed to derive empirical prior distributions for the heterogeneity parameter suitable for HTA. Previously, an extension to the normal-normal hierarchical model had been suggested for this purpose. For different effect measures, this extended model was applied on the database to conservatively derive a prior distribution for the heterogeneity parameter. Comparison of a Bayesian approach using the derived priors with IQWiG's current standard approach for evidence synthesis shows favorable properties. Therefore, these prior distributions are recommended for future meta-analyses in HTA settings and could be embedded into the IQWiG evidence synthesis approach in the case of very few studies.

High Levels of Perivascular Inflammation and Active Demyelinating Lesions at Time of Death Associated with Rapidly Progressive Multiple Sclerosis Disease Course: A Retrospective Postmortem Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Analysis of postmortem multiple sclerosis (MS) tissues combined with in vivo disease milestones suggests that whereas perivascular white matter infiltrates are associated with demyelinating activity in the initial stages, leptomeningeal immune cell infiltration, enriched in B cells, and associated cortical lesions contribute to disease progression. We systematically examine the association of inflammatory features and white matter demyelination at postmortem with clinical milestones. METHODS: In 269 MS brains, 20 sites were examined using immunohistochemistry for active lesions (ALs) and perivenular inflammation (PVI). In a subset of 22, a detailed count of CD20+ B cells and CD3+ T cells in PVIs was performed. RESULTS: ALs were detected in 22%, whereas high levels of PVI were detected in 52% of cases. ALs were present in 35% of cases with high levels of PVI. Shorter time from onset of progression to death was associated with increased prevalence and higher levels of PVI (both p < 0.0001). Shorter time from onset of progression to wheelchair use was associated with higher prevalence of ALs (odds ratio [OR] = 0.921, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.858-0.989, p = 0.0230) and higher level of PVI (OR = 0.932, 95% CI = 0.886-0.981, p = 0.0071). High levels of PVI were associated with meningeal inflammation and increased cortical demyelination and significantly higher levels of B lymphocytes within the PVI. INTERPRETATION: ALs, a feature of early disease stage, persist up to death in a subgroup with high levels of PVI. These features link to a rapid progressive phase and higher levels of meningeal inflammation and B-cell infiltrates, supporting the hypothesis that chronic inflammation drives progression in MS. ANN NEUROL 2024;95:706-719.

Serum glial fibrillary acidic protein and disability progression in progressive multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Progression prediction is a significant unmet need in people with progressive multiple sclerosis (pwPMS). Studies on glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) have either been limited to single center with relapsing MS or were based solely on Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), which limits its generalizability to state-of-the-art clinical settings and trials applying combined outcome parameters. METHODS: Serum GFAP and NfL (neurofilament light chain) were investigated in EmBioProMS participants with primary (PP) or secondary progressive MS. Six months confirmed disability progression (CDP) was defined using combined outcome parameters (EDSS, timed-25-foot walk test (T25FW), and nine-hole-peg-test (9HPT)). RESULTS: 243 subjects (135 PPMS, 108 SPMS, age 55.5, IQR [49.7-61.2], 135 female, median follow-up: 29.3 months [17.9-40.9]) were included. NfL (age-) and GFAP (age- and sex-) adjusted Z scores were higher in pwPMS compared to HC (p < 0.001 for both). 111 (32.8%) CDP events were diagnosed in participants with ≥3 visits (n = 169). GFAP Z score >3 was associated with higher risk for CDP in participants with low NfL Z score (i.e., ≤1.0) (HR: 2.38 [1.12-5.08], p = 0.025). In PPMS, GFAP Z score >3 was associated with higher risk for CDP (HR: 2.88 [1.21-6.84], p = 0.016). Risk was further increased in PPMS subjects with high GFAP when NfL is low (HR: 4.31 [1.53-12.13], p = 0.006). INTERPRETATION: Blood GFAP may help identify pwPPMS at risk of progression. Combination of high GFAP and low NfL levels could distinguish non-active pwPMS with particularly high progression risk.

How trace plots help interpret meta-analysis results.

The trace plot is seldom used in meta-analysis, yet it is a very informative plot. In this article, we define and illustrate what the trace plot is, and discuss why it is important. The Bayesian version of the plot combines the posterior density of τ , the between-study standard deviation, and the shrunken estimates of the study effects as a function of τ . With a small or moderate number of studies, τ is not estimated with much precision, and parameter estimates and shrunken study effect estimates can vary widely depending on the correct value of τ . The trace plot allows visualization of the sensitivity to τ along with a plot that shows which values of τ are plausible and which are implausible. A comparable frequentist or empirical Bayes version provides similar results. The concepts are illustrated using examples in meta-analysis and meta-regression; implementation in R is facilitated in a Bayesian or frequentist framework using the bayesmeta and metafor packages, respectively.