SOCRATES: an online tool leveraging a social contact data sharing initiative to assess mitigation strategies for COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: Establishing a social contact data sharing initiative and an interactive tool to assess mitigation strategies for COVID-19. RESULTS: We organized data sharing of published social contact surveys via online repositories and formatting guidelines. We analyzed this social contact data in terms of weighted social contact matrices, next generation matrices, relative incidence and R[Formula: see text]. We incorporated location-specific physical distancing measures (e.g. school closure or at work) and capture their effect on transmission dynamics. All methods have been implemented in an online application based on R Shiny and applied to COVID-19 with age-specific susceptibility and infectiousness. Using our online tool with the available social contact data, we illustrate that physical distancing could have a considerable impact on reducing transmission for COVID-19. The effect itself depends on assumptions made about disease-specific characteristics and the choice of intervention(s).

The relative fitness of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis: a modelling study of household transmission in Peru.

The relative fitness of drug-resistant versus susceptible bacteria in an environment dictates resistance prevalence. Estimates for the relative fitness of resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) strains are highly heterogeneous and mostly derived from in vitro experiments. Measuring fitness in the field allows us to determine how the environment influences the spread of resistance. We designed a household structured, stochastic mathematical model to estimate the fitness costs associated with multidrug resistance (MDR) carriage in Mtb in Lima, Peru during 2010-2013. By fitting the model to data from a large prospective cohort study of TB disease in household contacts, we estimated the fitness, relative to susceptible strains with a fitness of 1, of MDR-Mtb to be 0.32 (95% credible interval: 0.15-0.62) or 0.38 (0.24-0.61), if only transmission or progression to disease, respectively, was affected. The relative fitness of MDR-Mtb increased to 0.56 (0.42-0.72) when the fitness cost influenced both transmission and progression to disease equally. We found the average relative fitness of MDR-Mtb circulating within households in Lima, Peru during 2010-2013 to be significantly lower than concurrent susceptible Mtb If these fitness levels do not change, then existing TB control programmes are likely to keep MDR-TB prevalence at current levels in Lima, Peru.

High Zika Virus Seroprevalence in Salvador, Northeastern Brazil Limits the Potential for Further Outbreaks.

During 2015 to 2016, Brazil reported more Zika virus (ZIKV) cases than any other country, yet population exposure remains unknown. Serological studies of ZIKV are hampered by cross-reactive immune responses against heterologous viruses. We conducted serosurveys for ZIKV, dengue virus (DENV), and Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in 633 individuals prospectively sampled during 2015 to 2016, including microcephaly and non-microcephaly pregnancies, HIV-infected patients, tuberculosis patients, and university staff in Salvador in northeastern Brazil using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) and plaque reduction neutralization tests. Sera sampled retrospectively during 2013 to 2015 from 277 HIV-infected patients were used to assess the spread of ZIKV over time. Individuals were georeferenced, and sociodemographic indicators were compared between ZIKV-positive and -negative areas and areas with and without microcephaly cases. Epidemiological key parameters were modeled in a Bayesian framework. ZIKV seroprevalence increased rapidly during 2015 to 2016, reaching 63.3% by 2016 (95% confidence interval [CI], 59.4 to 66.8%), comparable to the seroprevalence of DENV (75.7%; CI, 69.4 to 81.1%) and higher than that of CHIKV (7.4%; CI, 5.6 to 9.8%). Of 19 microcephaly pregnancies, 94.7% showed ZIKV IgG antibodies, compared to 69.3% of 257 non-microcephaly pregnancies (P = 0.017). Analyses of sociodemographic data revealed a higher ZIKV burden in low socioeconomic status (SES) areas. High seroprevalence, combined with case data dynamics allowed estimates of the basic reproduction number R0 of 2.1 (CI, 1.8 to 2.5) at the onset of the outbreak and an effective reproductive number Reff of <1 in subsequent years. Our data corroborate ZIKV-associated congenital disease and an association of low SES and ZIKV infection and suggest that population immunity caused cessation of the outbreak. Similar studies from other areas will be required to determine the fate of the American ZIKV outbreak.IMPORTANCE The ongoing American Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak involves millions of cases and has a major impact on maternal and child health. Knowledge of infection rates is crucial to project future epidemic patterns and determine the absolute risk of microcephaly upon maternal ZIKV infection during pregnancy. For unknown reasons, the vast majority of ZIKV-associated microcephaly cases are concentrated in northeastern Brazil. We analyzed different subpopulations from Salvador, a Brazilian metropolis representing one of the most affected areas during the American ZIKV outbreak. We demonstrate rapid spread of ZIKV in Salvador, Brazil, and infection rates exceeding 60%. We provide evidence for the link between ZIKV and microcephaly, report that ZIKV predominantly affects geographic areas with low socioeconomic status, and show that population immunity likely caused cessation of the outbreak. Our results enable stakeholders to identify target populations for vaccination and for trials on vaccine efficacy and allow refocusing of research efforts and intervention strategies.