ABSTRACT
Después de varias décadas de conflicto armado en Colombia, el Gobierno colombiano y las Farc-EP firmaron, en 2016, el Acuerdo Final para la terminación del conflicto y la construcción de una paz estable y duradera. No obstante, este acuerdo no fue refrendado por la ciudadanía, en un plebiscito celebrado ese mismo año. En 2018, ganó las elecciones presidenciales un candidato que prometió cambiar las condiciones del Acuerdos Final y modificar uno de sus principales instrumentos: la Jurisdicción Especial para la Paz (JEP). En ese contexto esta investigación se pregunta: ¿cuál es la opinión de los colombianos sobre el Acuerdo Final y la JEP? La investigación indaga en las opiniones de los colombianos a través de un análisis estadístico comparativo de tres encuestas de opinión de 2016, 2018 y 2020. Los resultados detallan los cambios actitudinales ocurridos en esos años, como la disminución del rechazo frontal a los Acuerdos de Paz y el leve incremento de las posibilidades de reintegración de los excombatientes a la vida civil. También, expone algunas reticencias al cambio, como la desconfianza persistente, la reafirmación del rechazo al indulto de los excombatientes (punitivismo) y a su participación política (ostracismo).
After several decades of armed conflict in Colombia, the Colombian Government and the Farc-EP signed, in 2016, the Final Agreement for the termination of the conflict and the construction of a stable and lasting peace. However, this agreement was not endorsed by the citizenry, in a plebiscite held that same year. In 2018, the presidential elections were won by a candidate who promised to change the conditions of the Final Agreement and to modify one of its main instruments: the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP). In this context, this research asks: what is the opinion of Colombians on the Final Agreement and the SJP? The research inquiries into the opinions of Colombians through a comparative statistical analysis of three opinion polls from 2016, 2018 and 2020. The results detail the attitudinal changes that occurred in those years, such as the decrease in the frontal rejection of the Peace Accords and the slight increase in the possibilities of reintegration of ex-combatants to civilian life. It also exposes some reluctance to change, such as persistent distrust, the reaffirmation of the rejection of pardoning ex-combatants (punitivism) and their political participation (ostracism).
Após várias décadas de conflito armado na Colômbia, o governo colombiano e as FARC-EP assinaram, em 2016, o Acordo Final para o fim do conflito e a construção de uma paz estável e duradoura. Entretanto, este acordo não foi endossado pelos cidadãos em um plebiscito realizado no mesmo ano. Em 2018, as eleições presidenciais foram ganhas por um candidato que prometeu mudar as condições do Acordo Final e modificar um de seus principais instrumentos: a Jurisdição Especial para a Paz (JEP). Neste contexto, esta pesquisa pergunta: qual é a opinião dos colombianos sobre o Acordo Final e o SJP? A pesquisa investiga as opiniões dos colombianos através de uma análise estatística comparativa de três pesquisas de opinião de 2016, 2018 e 2020. Os resultados detalham as mudanças de atitude que ocorreram nesses anos, tais como a diminuição da rejeição direta dos Acordos de Paz e o leve aumento das possibilidades de reintegração de ex-combatentes na vida civil. Também expõe alguma relutância em mudar, como a desconfiança persistente, a reafirmação da rejeição do perdão de ex-combatentes (punitivismo) e de sua participação política (ostracismo).
Subject(s)
Humans , Public Opinion , Armed Conflicts , Colombia , Forgiveness , Human RightsABSTRACT
In whatever domain of life, from cells to organisms to societies, communicative exchanges underlie the formation and maintenance, and decay, of the emerging collective structures. It can be clearly seen in the human social world. The different classes of social bonds in a complex society revolve around, and are intimately related with, the communicative relationships that every individual entertains-essentially via face-to-face conversation. In the present work we have investigated the fundamental metrics of both social bonds and communicative exchanges along the development of the "sociotype" construct. It is a new approach developed by the authors within the genotype-phenotype-sociotype conceptual triad. The sociotype means the relative constancy, or better the similar fabric, of the social world in which each individual life is developed. In order to ascertain the metrics of the fundamental quantitative traits inherent in the sociotype, a fieldwork involving a total of 1475 individuals (68.59% female, and 49.79 mean age, SD = 21.47) was carried out. The four relational realms of family, friends, work/study, and acquaintances were investigated. The overall results about conversation time (an average of 220 min/day), and about the number of social bonds (an average of 98), differ from previous assumptions, such as Dunbar's number or Killworth's number. Other results about gender, age, and use of social media and Internet contribute to highlight significant differences among the different social segments, and particularly the diminished "sociotype" of the elderly. Finally, it is curious that a non-Gaussian distribution has been obtained for the specific population allotment of these metrics, and intriguingly the Planckian distribution equation (PDE) appears to be a most cogent fit.
