Bayesian methods: a potential path forward for sepsis trials.

BACKGROUND: Given the success of recent platform trials for COVID-19, Bayesian statistical methods have become an option for complex, heterogenous syndromes like sepsis. However, study design will require careful consideration of how statistical power varies using Bayesian methods across different choices for how historical data are incorporated through a prior distribution and how the analysis is ultimately conducted. Our objective with the current analysis is to assess how different uses of historical data through a prior distribution, and type of analysis influence results of a proposed trial that will be analyzed using Bayesian statistical methods. METHODS: We conducted a simulation study incorporating historical data from a published multicenter, randomized clinical trial in the US and Canada of polymyxin B hemadsorption for treatment of endotoxemic septic shock. Historical data come from a 179-patient subgroup of the previous trial of adult critically ill patients with septic shock, multiple organ failure and an endotoxin activity of 0.60-0.89. The trial intervention consisted of two polymyxin B hemoadsorption treatments (2 h each) completed within 24 h of enrollment. RESULTS: In our simulations for a new trial of 150 patients, a range of hypothetical results were observed. Across a range of baseline risks and treatment effects and four ways of including historical data, we demonstrate an increase in power with the use of clinically defensible incorporation of historical data. In one possible trial result, for example, with an observed reduction in risk of mortality from 44 to 37%, the probability of benefit is 96% with a fixed weight of 75% on prior data and 90% with a commensurate (adaptive-weighting) prior; the same data give an 80% probability of benefit if historical data are ignored. CONCLUSIONS: Using Bayesian methods and a biologically justifiable use of historical data in a prior distribution yields a study design with higher power than a conventional design that ignores relevant historical data. Bayesian methods may be a viable option for trials in critical care medicine where beneficial treatments have been elusive.

Safety and Efficacy of Combination ACTHar Gel and Tacrolimus in Treatment-Resistant Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis and Membranous Glomerulopathy.

INTRODUCTION: H.P. ACTHar gel is a preparation of melanocortin peptides that has been used to treat resistant forms of nephrotic syndrome. To determine whether combination therapy with ACTHar gel and tacrolimus reduces proteinuria and stabilizes renal function, we conducted a prospective, open-label trial in patients with treatment-resistant membranous glomerulopathy (MGN) and focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). METHODS: Nine patients with treatment-resistant MGN and 13 with treatment-resistant FSGS received subcutaneous ACTHar gel for 6 months. Patients with no response or a partial response to ACTHar gel alone received an additional 6 months of therapy with combination ACTHar gel and oral tacrolimus. The study endpoint was the percentage of patients achieving a complete or partial remission after 6 months of combination therapy. RESULTS: Among patients with MGN, treatment with ACTHar gel alone achieved a partial remission in 44% and no response in 56% of patients. No patient achieved a complete response with ACTHar gel therapy alone. An additional 6 months of combination therapy with ACTHar gel and tacrolimus resulted in partial and complete response rates of 25% and 75%, respectively. Among patients with FSGS, ACTHar gel therapy alone resulted in complete and partial response rate of 7.7% and 62.0%. Combination therapy increased complete response rates to 17% and partial responses to 66%. Proteinuria (urinary protein-to-creatinine ratio) was significantly reduced in both patients with MGN and those with FSGS after 6 months of ACTHar gel alone and was further reduced among the patients with MGN with the addition of tacrolimus. There were no significant changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate during the treatment phase or long-term follow-up. DISCUSSION: Combination therapy with ACTHar gel and tacrolimus was well tolerated by patients with treatment-resistant MGN and FSGS and significantly reduced proteinuria and improved clinical response rates compared with ACTHar gel alone.

A Multi-Center, Randomized, Controlled, Pivotal Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of a Selective Cytopheretic Device in Patients with Acute Kidney Injury.

OBJECTIVE: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a highly morbid condition in critically ill patients that is associated with high mortality. Previous clinical studies have demonstrated the safety and efficacy of the Selective Cytopheretic Device (SCD) in the treatment of AKI requiring continuous renal replacement therapy in the intensive care unit (ICU). DESIGN, SETTING, PATIENTS: A randomized, controlled trial of 134 ICU patients with AKI, 69 received continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) alone and 65 received SCD therapy. RESULTS: No significant difference in 60-day mortality was observed between the treated (27/69; 39%) and control patients (21/59; 36%, with six patients lost to follow up) in the intention to treat (ITT) analysis. Of the 19 SCD subjects (CRRT+SCD) and 31 control subjects (CRRT alone) who maintained a post-filter ionized calcium (iCa) level in the protocol's recommended range (≤ 0.4 mmol/L) for greater or equal to 90% of the therapy time, 60-day mortality was 16% (3/19) in the SCD group compared to 41% (11/27) in the CRRT alone group (p = 0.11). Dialysis dependency showed a borderline statistically significant difference between the SCD treated versus control CRRT alone patients maintained for ≥ 90% of the treatment in the protocol's recommended (r) iCa target range of ≤ 0.4 mmol/L with values of, 0% (0/16) and 25% (4/16), respectively (P = 0.10). When the riCa treated and control subgroups were compared for a composite index of 60 day mortality and dialysis dependency, the percentage of SCD treated subjects was 16% versus 58% in the control subjects (p<0.01). The incidence of serious adverse events did not differ between the treated (45/69; 65%) and control groups (40/65; 63%; p = 0·86). CONCLUSION: SCD therapy may improve mortality and reduce dialysis dependency in a tightly controlled regional hypocalcaemic environment in the perfusion circuit. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01400893 http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01400893.

Ferric citrate controls phosphorus and delivers iron in patients on dialysis.

Patients on dialysis require phosphorus binders to prevent hyperphosphatemia and are iron deficient. We studied ferric citrate as a phosphorus binder and iron source. In this sequential, randomized trial, 441 subjects on dialysis were randomized to ferric citrate or active control in a 52-week active control period followed by a 4-week placebo control period, in which subjects on ferric citrate who completed the active control period were rerandomized to ferric citrate or placebo. The primary analysis compared the mean change in phosphorus between ferric citrate and placebo during the placebo control period. A sequential gatekeeping strategy controlled study-wise type 1 error for serum ferritin, transferrin saturation, and intravenous iron and erythropoietin-stimulating agent usage as prespecified secondary outcomes in the active control period. Ferric citrate controlled phosphorus compared with placebo, with a mean treatment difference of -2.2±0.2 mg/dl (mean±SEM) (P<0.001). Active control period phosphorus was similar between ferric citrate and active control, with comparable safety profiles. Subjects on ferric citrate achieved higher mean iron parameters (ferritin=899±488 ng/ml [mean±SD]; transferrin saturation=39%±17%) versus subjects on active control (ferritin=628±367 ng/ml [mean±SD]; transferrin saturation=30%±12%; P<0.001 for both). Subjects on ferric citrate received less intravenous elemental iron (median=12.95 mg/wk ferric citrate; 26.88 mg/wk active control; P<0.001) and less erythropoietin-stimulating agent (median epoetin-equivalent units per week: 5306 units/wk ferric citrate; 6951 units/wk active control; P=0.04). Hemoglobin levels were statistically higher on ferric citrate. Thus, ferric citrate is an efficacious and safe phosphate binder that increases iron stores and reduces intravenous iron and erythropoietin-stimulating agent use while maintaining hemoglobin.

Phase IIa study of the immunogenicity and safety of the novel Staphylococcus aureus vaccine V710 in adults with end-stage renal disease receiving hemodialysis.

Bacteremia is the second leading cause of death in patients with end-stage renal disease who are on hemodialysis. A vaccine eliciting long-term immune responses against Staphylococcus aureus in patients on chronic hemodialysis may reduce the incidence of bacteremia and its complications in these patients. V710 is a vaccine containing iron surface determinant B (IsdB), a highly conserved S. aureus surface protein, which has been shown to be immunogenic in healthy subjects. In this blinded phase II immunogenicity study, 206 chronic hemodialysis patients between the ages of 18 and 80 years old were randomized to receive 60 µg V710 (with or without adjuvant), 90 µg V710 (with adjuvant), or a placebo in various combinations on days 1, 28, and 180. All 201 vaccinated patients were to be followed through day 360. The primary hypothesis was that at least 1 of the 3 groups receiving 2 V710 doses on days 1 and 28 would have a ≥2.5 geometric mean fold rise (GMFR) in anti-IsdB IgG titers over the baseline 28 days after the second vaccination (day 56). At day 56, all three groups receiving 2 doses of V710 achieved a ≥2.5 GMFR in anti-IsdB antibodies compared to the baseline (P values of <0.001 for all 3 groups), satisfying the primary immunogenicity hypothesis. None of the 33 reported serious adverse experiences were considered vaccine related by the investigators. V710 induced sustained antibody responses for at least 1 year postvaccination in patients on chronic hemodialysis.